APRU is expected to decline sequentially in Q1 of 2020-21 after healthy growth in the preceding quarter (Q4FY20), it added.
"Bharti and VIL are likely to see five per cent quarter on quarter fall in ARPU. Home broadband to see a healthy increase in new connections, boosted by the lockdown.
Airtel Africa should perform well as the impact of Covid-19 was minimal," it said.
It expects moderation in subscriber additions due to lack of smartphone sales in April and early May. "In fact, reverse migration could lead to subscriber loss for the industry due to delayed or no recharges," Emkay Global said.
It expects decline in subscriber base of Bharti and VIL, with a more pronounced subscriber loss for the latter. Both operators are likely to see minimal increase in data subscribers. It, however, anticipates subscriber addition in case of Reliance Jio on account of market share gains.
Data consumption for all three private operators is estimated to rise by 10-12 per cent sequentially, driven by underlying increase even as new subscriber additions are expected to remain muted.
Cost savings are seen accruing from marketing, channel margins (lower gross additions and increased digital recharges) and other costs, whereas network opex shall continue to rise on increased utilisations. There could be some provisions on delayed payments in the enterprise segment for Bharti and VIL, it pointed out.
Reported finance cost could be lower based on moratorium on both deferred spectrum payment and bank loans, it added.
Business Standard has always strived hard to provide up-to-date information and commentary on developments that are of interest to you and have wider political and economic implications for the country and the world. Your encouragement and constant feedback on how to improve our offering have only made our resolve and commitment to these ideals stronger. Even during these difficult times arising out of Covid-19, we continue to remain committed to keeping you informed and updated with credible news, authoritative views and incisive commentary on topical issues of relevance.
We, however, have a request.
As we battle the economic impact of the pandemic, we need your support even more, so that we can continue to offer you more quality content. Our subscription model has seen an encouraging response from many of you, who have subscribed to our online content. More subscription to our online content can only help us achieve the goals of offering you even better and more relevant content. We believe in free, fair and credible journalism. Your support through more subscriptions can help us practise the journalism to which we are committed.
Support quality journalism and subscribe to Business Standard.