“In a best case scenario,” says Ives, Apple
“would be able to move away 5 per cent-7 per cent of iPhone production out of China” over the course of 18 months. The company would require three years to move 20 per cent out, he adds, which is still less than the 25 per cent of iPhone production that Apple needs for its domestic US market. American tariffs on goods from China would therefore directly impact Apple’s biggest moneymaker.
Ives calls Trump’s latest comments on China “a gut punch to Cupertino” in the title of his report.
Apple’s main assembly partner, Foxconn Technology Group, has claimed that it has the capacity to build all of the Cupertino company’s US-bound iPhones outside of China, however all indications are that to deploy it would require a great deal of time and money. Apple’s stock price took two big hits on Friday in the wake of the latest tariffs announcements.
The president’s comments were followed hours later by tweets declaring that the US would increase the rate of existing and impending tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump’s moves were in response to an earlier announcement that China was planning to impose tariffs on $75 billion of US imports.
People familiar with iPhone production have said that it is nearly impossible to relocate manufacturing of Apple’s iconic device in a wholesale manner due to the difficulty of procuring a skilled labor force elsewhere, a point that Apple CEO Tim Cook has hammered away at in public as well. The challenges of replicating the complex production lines and necessary infrastructure are also major hurdles.
There may also be less purely economic reasons for sticking with the world’s No. 2 economy. Apple and its army of contract manufacturers, led by Foxconn, are collectively China’s largest private employer, providing work for millions of people. A reduced Apple presence could have significant implications for the local job market and rub Beijing the wrong way at a time Chinese officials see a slowing economy as a significant risk to stability. The government has shown a penchant for clamping down on foreign firms that displease it.
And Apple needs to fend off smartphone market leader Huawei Technologies Co. and win back consumers in China, its largest market after the US.