Icra believes that the duty reduction on steel products would make their imports more competitive and in turn exert near-term pricing pressures on domestic steelmakers.
Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices witnessed a steep rise of about 54 per cent during July-December 2020 from end-June 2020 level of Rs 36,250 per tonne on the back of a strong recovery in the domestic demand and a similar 56 percent increase in international steel prices.
While the prices increased further in January 2021 to touch a record of Rs 58,000 per tonne, resistance from the end-user industries led to a roll-back in prices, which are currently trading at Rs 56,000 per cent.
To protect the interests of the end-user industries of steel from such elevated steel prices, the Government, as a part of the Union Budget 2021-22, announced a reduction in custom duty on flat steel products
to 7.5 per cent from 12.5 per cent and on long products to 7.5 per cent from 10 per cent earlier.
Icra believes that the duty reduction on steel products
would make their imports more competitive and in turn exert near-term pricing pressures on domestic steelmakers.
“The reduction in duties will not affect imports from countries like South Korea and Japan, with which India has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). However, imports from China
and other non-FTA countries would become more cost-competitive now. Chinese export HRC prices have already witnessed a 10 per cent drop in January 2021 due to lower domestic demand during winter months of November-March, and at current prices, the landed HRC prices from China
at new duty rates are trading at a 10 per cent discount to domestic HRC prices. Therefore, everything else remaining the same and considering the lead time of about two months for the imports to arrive at the Indian shores, domestic HRC prices could correct by up to 10 per cent by end-March 2021 to align with the international prices and remain competitive in the domestic market,” the report quoted Jayanta Roy, senior vice-president and Group Head, Corporate Sector Ratings, ICRA as saying.
Icra, however, expects domestic steel demand
to remain favourable in the coming months on the back of several positive announcements made in the Union Budget 2021-22, related to the key end-user industries.
This in turn is likely to keep domestic steel prices buoyant unless the international prices correct significantly from the current levels.
Domestic steel consumption would receive a boost from the GoI’s continued thrust on infrastructure with a 26 per cent higher capital outlay, while the secondary steel producers would benefit from the improved scrap availability and lower input costs on the back of proposed doubling of the ship-breaking capacity by FY2024 and a duty reduction on steel scrap till end-FY2022.
The Government’s Rs. 2.87-trillion allocation to the Jal Jeevan Mission (Urban) scheme and the addition of 100 more districts to the city gas distribution network would also provide a fillip to steel pipe sales. Additionally, domestic steelmakers
stand to gain from the urban infrastructure push in the form of a 175 per cent increase in capital allocation to Metro Rail infrastructure in multiple cities and launch of a new scheme to bolster public bus transport services, at a cost of Rs 18,000 crore.
“Short-term reduction in steel prices is expected to be more than counterbalanced in the medium term by a sharp increase in infrastructure spending by the Government and its effect on the domestic steel demand,” Roy was quoted as saying.