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Here's what brokerages expect from Tata Motors' Q4FY20 results today

Kotak Securities sees Tata Motor's consolidated revenue falling 28.5 per cent YoY
Tata Motors is all set to announce its March quarter results (Q4FY20) on Monday and analysts expect the company's revenue to decline over 25 per cent on a year-on-year basis, led by fall in overall volumes, while the loss for the quarter may come in at anything between Rs 2,600 crore to Rs 3,300 crore.

At the bourses, Tata Motors plunged 61.48 per cent in Q4FY20 as compared to Nifty's 29.4 per cent fall in the same period, ACE Equity data show. Meanwhile, the Nifty Auto index declined 42.3 per cent.

Analysts at Kotak Securities see Tata Motor's consolidated revenue falling 28.5 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis to Rs 61,803 crore and they are also building in a loss of Rs 2,667.3 crore for the quarter. In comparison, Tata Motors had reported consolidated revenue of Rs 86,422 crore and net profit of Rs 2,215.9 crore in Q4FY19.

Axis Capital pegs Tata Motors' Q4 revenue at Rs 55,600, a fall of 36 per cent on a YoY basis while the company is seen reporting a loss of Rs 3.350 crore for the quarter.

Operating performance

Kotak Securities expects Tata Motors' earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and ammortisation (Ebitda) to come in at Rs 3,802.7 crore, down 52.6 per cent YoY as compared to Rs 3,802.7 crore reported in Q4FY19. Ebitda margin for the quarter is seen at 6.2 per cent, down 389 bps on a sequential basis.

Axis Capital sees the company's Ebitda for the quarter at Rs 3,400 crore for the quarter while Ebitda margin is expected at 6.1 per cent.

Standalone performance

Analysts at Kotak Securities said, "We expect standalone revenues to decline by 39 per cent YoY led by 30 per cent YoY decline in volumes across segments to 135,000 units and 13 per cent YoY decline in average selling prices (ASPs) due to inferior product mix (higher mix of lower tonnage CVs) in 4QFY20. We build in standalone Ebitda margin of 0% in 4QFY20 (-0.5 per cent in 3QFY20 and 6 per cent in 4QFY19); the yoy decline is due to increase in discount levels and negative operating leverage."

As per Nomura, Tata Motors' standalone performance is likely to remain weak with revenues declining 51 per cent on a YoY basis, with margin shrinking 728 basis points from the corresponding quarter in the last fiscal. "Weak performance across segments will be due to a decline in overall volumes," the brokerage said.

JLR's performance

The total retail sales of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) in the fourth quarter stood at 1.09 lakh vehicles, down 30.9 per cent as compared with the January-March period of the financial year 2018-19, Tata Motors said in a regulatory filing.

"Sales of the company were impacted across all regions, including North America, China and the UK, during the previous financial year," the company had said in a regulatory filing in March.

Analysts at Nomura said, "JLR is expected to report around 16 per cent YoY drop in revenue to 6,010 million pounds while profit may decline 46 per cent to 186 million pounds. Ebitda margins are seen remaining flat on a sequential basis at 10.9 per cent. This implies Ebit margin at 2.7 per cent for Q4 and 1.7 per cent for FY20, largely in line with management’s lowered guidance in light of Covid-19."

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