CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter or DRIP, does just that.
The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse the impact of deficient rains.
This week’s DRIP results highlight some stress in Madhya Pradesh, where rains are still normal (with deficiency of 9%). But given that irrigation is weak, it is likely to have impacted sowing.
Stress is also visible in Gujarat, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh, where the DRIP scores are not only higher than in 2017 — which was a good rainfall year — but also above the average of the past five years. Broadly, therefore, these four states are seeing more stress.
By contrast, Bihar — where rains have caught up to an extent — has a higher score compared with 2017, but it is lower than the past average and hence stress is lower.
But the rainfall situation continues to evolve. July and August are critical to kharif crops, so a lot would depend on how the rest of August pans out.
The Indian Meteorological Department said August rains are expected to be better than its previous forecast.
The DRIP scores for three crops are higher, compared to both 2017 as well as the past five years. These are groundnut (cultivated in rain-deficient states of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh), tur (Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat) and soybean (Madhya Pradesh).
Two other crops — cotton and rice — also show some stress, with scores lower than in the past, but higher than in 2017.