Next on the list are: Thane with 80,440 'active cases' currently (projected - 122,476) and Nagpur with 78,484 'active cases' (estimated 1,23,680).
This is expected to put severe strain on the overall health infrastructure in these four worst 'hotspots' - but with the exception of Mumbai - Pune, Thane and Nagpur would face a massive scarcity of even basic isolation beds in quarantine centres.
At that time, Mumbai is expected to have a small surplus (+3,837) isolation beds, but there will be a huge shortage of isolation beds in Pune (-34,528), Nagpur (-32,364) and Thane (-19,821).
This could mean many 'active cases' forced to remain at home or experience delays in admission till isolation beds are available, posing risks to the patients and others, said an official.
However, all four cities shall witness big shortages of other essentials like oxygen beds, ICU beds and ventilators even as a serious situation is building up over the next fortnight.
Mumbai will run short of oxygen beds (-6,433), ICU beds ((-1,477) and ventilators (-121), Pune will have a shortage of oxygen beds (-13,118), ICU beds (-2,240) and ventilators (-598).
Similarly, in Thane the status of oxygen beds would be (-4,949), ICU beds (-1,267) and ventilators (-432), and Nagpur the situation of oxygen beds will be (-32,364), ICU beds (-10,476) and ventilators (-520).
With the number of 'active cases' set to spike hugely in the other 32 districts also, the availability of these infrastructure would be severely inadequate around the state.
Barring Mumbai, Palghar, Ratnagiri, Kolhapur, Solapur, Jalgaon and Amravati, the remaining 29 districts will not have sufficient isolation beds for 'active cases'.
Regarding the status of oxygen beds, except Palghar, Sangli, Kolhapur, Jalgaon, Amravati, Akola, Buldhana and Gadchiroli, patients in the remaining 28 districts could be left gasping due to insufficient oxygen supply.
As far as ICU beds are concerned, 25 districts barring Ratnagiri, Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, Solapur, Jalgaon, Nanded, Amravati, Akola, Washim and Buldhana, will complain of short supply of ICU beds.
The scenario could be equally horrendous on the last-stage of treatment on ventilators - only Palghar, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur, Solapur, Nashik, Jalgaon, Dhule, Aurangabad, Osmanabad, Amravati, Akola, Washim, Buldhana, Yavatmal and Gadchiroli would have adequate numbers - but the remaining 18 districts patients could face huge problems without sufficient number of ventilators, too.
On the present case-load, only 14 districts have spare isolation beds, but in the remaining 22 districts, the demand ranges between 60 per cent and 180 per cent of the existing capacity.
Based on the death rate registered till date, districts of Buldhana, Akola, Nandurbar, Jalgaon and Nanded shall be on "watch" over the next few days, as per the government estimates.
(Quaid Najmi can be contacted at email@example.com)
Business Standard has always strived hard to provide up-to-date information and commentary on developments that are of interest to you and have wider political and economic implications for the country and the world. Your encouragement and constant feedback on how to improve our offering have only made our resolve and commitment to these ideals stronger. Even during these difficult times arising out of Covid-19, we continue to remain committed to keeping you informed and updated with credible news, authoritative views and incisive commentary on topical issues of relevance.
We, however, have a request.
As we battle the economic impact of the pandemic, we need your support even more, so that we can continue to offer you more quality content. Our subscription model has seen an encouraging response from many of you, who have subscribed to our online content. More subscription to our online content can only help us achieve the goals of offering you even better and more relevant content. We believe in free, fair and credible journalism. Your support through more subscriptions can help us practise the journalism to which we are committed.
Support quality journalism and subscribe to Business Standard.