The India Meteorological Department (IMD) would issue its updated forecast for 2016 southwest monsoon
in the first week of June and the forecast for the onset date would be issued on Sunday, the Centre said on Wednesday. "… monsoon
is expected to reach South Kerala by May 31. The forecast for the 2016 monsoon
onset date will be issued on May 15," Minister of State for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences Y S Chowdary said in the Lok Sabha.
In reply to a separate question, he said all models are predicting a weakening of El Niño, with a transition to El Niño-neutral conditions during the second half of the summer monsoon season (August-September). "Subsequently, the chance of La Niña development increases during the last quarter of 2016," the minister said. El Niño and La Niña are weather phenomena that cause disruption in climatic conditions around the world, leading to unusually warm or cold conditions.
The Met department has in its first monsoon forecast for 2016 said rains would be "above normal" at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). Rains between 94 and 110 per cent of LPA is considered normal and anything above that excess. The Met has predicted a normal monsoon after two years of drought.
In a related development, private weather forecaster Skymet said monsoon might enter India by May 29; the usual onset is June 1.
"Pre-monsoon activities have started picking up in Kerala. The state received widespread good rain and thundershowers during the last 24 hours. Rainfall has been more intensive in the southern parts than northern Kerala. Temperatures, which were way above normal levels, have come down marginally," Skymet said.