The IMD will issue its second stage forecast in early June to indicate the monthly and regional rainfall distribution.
“The timely onset of the monsoon is a big positive for farming and raises hopes of good initial kharif sowing,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings. He added much would depend on the subsequent progress of the monsoon over the rained regions of central and western India.
The onset of the monsoon this year is the earliest since 2011. India receives around 164 mm of rainfall in June.
“There is nothing to suggest that the progress of the southwest monsoon will be hampered and overall distribution looks good,” an IMD official said.
The IMD said conditions were favourable for the further advance of the monsoon into remaining parts of the south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep and Kerala, some parts of the central Arabian Sea, and coastal and south interior Karnataka.
monsoon, rainfall, weatherIt is also expected to move to more parts of Tamil Nadu, southwest, west central and east central Bay of Bengal, most parts of northeast Bay of Bengal, and more parts of the northeast during next four days.
The IMD declares the arrival of monsoon after parameters measuring consistency of rainfall over a defined area, intensity, cloudiness and wind speed are satisfied.
The met department in its first forecast released in April said rainfall this year was expected to be normal at 96 per cent of the long period average.
The IMD attributed the projection to a weakening of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole turning positive. Both factors are seen combining to boost the southwest monsoon, though doubts linger over the intensity of rain. The IMD predicted a 38 per cent chance of near-normal rainfall. The forecast has a model error of five per cent.
El Niño is a warming of sea surface temperature along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while in the Indian Ocean Dipole sea surface temperature in the western Indian Ocean alternately becomes warmer and cooler than the eastern part.
The monsoon is considered normal if rainfall during the June-September season is 96-104 per cent of the average seasonal rainfall in the country in the last 50 years, estimated at 89 cm.