Covid-19 recoveries exceed active cases in India for the first time

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh and Telangana are among states where the number of active cases are less than the number of patients who have recovered
India’s Covid-19 data offers a glimmer of hope, with the number of recovered patients exceeding the total active cases for the first time since the country came in the grip of novel coronavirus. 

The total number of Covid-19 patients recovered stood at 135,205, against 133,632 active cases as of Wednesday morning, revealed the health ministry data. 

“More patients getting discharged is a good sign. It will free up more beds for patients in need of admission,” said E Sreekumar, chief scientific officer, Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology. 

Epidemiologists, however, are not celebrating just yet. The number of cases is expected to increase in the coming days. This might tip the scales unfavourably.

“We need to monitor these numbers. These may be transient. With lockdown easing and internal travel picking up, the number (of active cases) could go up,” cautioned Sreekumar. India had added 9,985 cases in a single day, according to the health ministry data released on Wednesday morning. The increase in the daily number of cases has hovered close to 10,000 for over a week, even as the total Covid count continued its upward trajectory. In terms of percentage increase, there has been a slight decline in per day rise in the number of cases, from more than 4 per cent in the beginning of June to around 3.7 per cent on June 10. In Maharashtra, however, the new cases added by Wednesday were 2,259 — the lowest in nearly two weeks, slowing their doubling rate to around 20 days. The state with the maximum number of cases at 90,787 has seen recovery of 42,638 so far. Delhi accounts for more than 11,000 recovered cases (of its total tally of 31,309).

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Telangana are among states where the number of active cases is less than the recovered ones. “While this is good news, we need to observe the numbers for the next three days. One swallow does not a summer make,” said Alok Roy, chair-Ficci Health Services Committee and chairman, Medica Group of Hospitals. In the past one day, 5,892 were cured or discharged, while 3,819 new active cases were added.  As the recoveries rose, so did the total fatalities, taking the total death count to 7,745. “The government needs to focus on preventing deaths. If the fatality is 5 per cent, then 95 per cent should recover. This distinction between active and recovered cases is baffling,” said Jacob John, virologist and former chairman of Indian Council of Medical Research.

India’s fatality rate is around 2.8 per cent, which would indicate a much higher recovery rate. Currently, nearly 49 per cent of total patients have been cured and over 48 per cent are among those in the active category.

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