Governor Shaktikanta Das also said last week that the economic recovery had been more rapid than expected, and accordingly, the RBI is expected to raise its GDP forecast for fiscal 2021
The RBI has cut interest rates by “a great deal” and more policy space can be created when inflation eases, its executive director and interest rate-panel member Mridul Saggar said.
The rupee closed 0.2% weaker last Friday after data showed India entered an unprecedented recession
The Bank of Thailand’s minutes on Wednesday may contain more information about plans for halting the appreciation of the baht
The Thai currency was the the third-worst performing currency in emerging Asia after the yuan and the Taiwan dollar last week as the chorus of pressure aimed at the central bank to slow appreciation continued
China PMI, Korea Restrictions
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.1 in November from 51.4 in the previous month, according to official data released Monday. That was the highest since September 2017 and beat the 51.5 median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists
The yuan’s outperformance has partly been because of the recovery in the domestic economy
Markit manufacturing PMIs are due on Tuesday for the rest of Asia, with China’s Caixin indicators on Thursday
These diffusion indicators have shown a steady improvement over the past four months
South Korea’s October industrial production data, which showed a a larger-than-expected drop from the previous year, kicked off a busy week of economic reports, including a third-quarter gross domestic product reading on Tuesday and current-account data on Friday
South Korea will maintain social-distancing rules in the greater Seoul area at the current level while adding restrictions to more venues, and tighten measures outside the capital region
The won was Asia’s top-performing currency last week, in line with its economic performance and external accounts, despite continued concerns about the impact of currency strength
Malaysia’s October trade balance showed another surplus in data that was released last Friday, ahead of the original release date this Monday
The ringgit is little changed after being the second-strongest currency in Asia last week as commodity prices extended gains and the government passed the budget
Thailand’s current account and trade balance for October remained in surplus, according to data released on Monday
The constitutional court is due to rule on Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha’s qualification to serve on Wednesday -- after allegations of abuse of power resulting from his residence in army accommodation, despite no longer being a serving officer
There’s a slew of inflation figures due in Asia, including those from Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand
Eastern Europe Rates
Poland’s central bank will probably leave its policy rate unchanged near zero for a sixth consecutive meeting as the eastern European country tightens measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus
Policy makers in Hungary will announce their decision on Thursday after leaving the key rate unchanged at 0.75% at the previous nine meetings
Polish GDP, Turkey CPI
Poland reported final third-quarter GDP on Monday, which showed a 1.5% contraction from the previous year; data will be followed by November PMI and CPI prints on Tuesday
South Africa posted a sixth straight monthly trade surplus in October and M3 money supply growth accelerated, according to data released on Monday
Reports on manufacturing, vehicle sales and business confidence will give clues about the strength of the recovery from the coronavirus
Russia’s consumer inflation probably accelerated in November to a seven-month high, a report may show on Friday, complicating the central bank’s policy options for the remainder of the year
The manufacturing and services PMIs, gold and forex reserves, and money supply are also due this week
Turkey’s consumer inflation rate probably rose to 12.7% in November, the highest in more than a year, data may show Thursday. A report on Monday showed the economy rebounded in the third quarter, posting growth of 6.7% from the same quarter last week, compared with a 4.8% estimate
Brazil Spending Reforms
will have their eyes on the Brazilian Congress this week to see if debates on fiscal spending reforms and the 2021 budget will resume. Third-quarter GDP data on Thursday are expected to show signs of a recovery, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Industrial production numbers on Wednesday will give a glimpse into fourth-quarter output
Chile’s economic activity is expected to have rebounded in October, data due on Tuesday may show
Retail sales surged by the most in a decade and copper production fell slightly in October, according to data published on Monday
Minutes from the November meeting of Colombia’s central bank due later today are likely to show policy makers will not provide additional monetary policy relief in the near future and will opt to wait for more information. PMI data and the third-quarter current account balance will be reported on Tuesday
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