Illustration by Ajay Mohanty
Gross tax revenue, including states' share, surpassed budgeted target (of 10.8 per cent) at 11.3 per cent, which was mostly due to higher-than-expected excise collections on petroleum products.
Even though demonetisation
had only a neutral effect on direct taxes, which fell within the budgeted target of 5.6 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP), it said.
"Going forward revenues
may increase permanently if demonetisation
is successful in raising the amount of income reported to tax authorities," World Bank
said in a chapter titled 'India's Great Currency Exchange' in its latest 'India
On November 8, the Indian government had pulled out old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes from circulation with immediate effect, which accounted to almost 86 per cent of cash in circulation.
accounted for over half of India's GDP
as of 2008-09 and 82 per cent of non-agricultural employment.
promotes a reallocation of resources from the informal to the formal economy
... Many firms that had been reluctant to formalise now adopted digital payments, moving a step closer to formalisation, thanks to the demonetisation
exercise," it said further.
Formalisation is ultimately a positive transformation that can lead to greater efficiency, World Bank
said, adding India's low aggregate productivity is in part due to the prevalence of a large number of informal unproductive firms.
needs to bring in complementary measures for ease of doing business to ensure that the new equilibrium of higher formalisation prevails.
"The smooth transition of Goods and Services Tax (GST) will be another major complementary reform to promote formalisation, as firms have a strong incentive to register with GST
to obtain input tax credits," it added.
2017 global growth forecast at 2.7%
on Sunday maintained its forecast for global growth in 2017 and 2018 unchanged at 2.7 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively, as manufacturing and trade are picking up and confidence is improving
"A bright spot in the outlook is a recovery in trade growth to 4 per cent (in 2017) after a post-financial crisis low of 2.5 per cent last year," Xinhua quoted the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects
(GEP) report as saying.
The recovery in trade growth in 2017 is supported by stronger demand from major advanced economies, increased trade flows to and from China, and a diminished drag from weak demand from commodity exporters, said the World Bank.
Stronger trade also reflected the improved outlook for global growth. According to the forecast, advanced economies are expected to grow 1.9 per cent in 2017, accelerating from the 1.7 per cent growth in 2016, said the World Bank
in its flagship Global Economic Prospects
(GEP) report released on Sunday.
However, it expected the advanced economic growth to slow to 1.8 per cent in 2018 and 1.7 per cent in 2019, in line with its forecasts in January.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to accelerate to 4.1 per cent in 2017 from 3.5 per cent in 2016. The growth is projected to pick up pace in 2018 and 2019, and will reach 4.5 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively.
"After a prolonged slowdown, the recent acceleration in activity in some of the largest emerging markets is a welcome development for growth in their regions and for the global economy," said Ayhan Kose, director for the GEP program at the World Bank.
Growth among the world's seven largest emerging market economies, namely China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia
and Turkey, is expected to surpass its long-term average by 2018.
"Recovering activity in these economies should have significant positive effects for growth in other emerging and developing economies and globally," said the report.
expected Chinese economy
to grow 6.5 per cent this year and 6.3 per cent in 2018 and 2019, in line with its forecast in January.
Fiscal support is expected to continue to offset monetary tightening, said the World Bank.
It expected government policies will continue to support growth, contain financial risks, and encourage a rebalancing of the economy
to more of a focus on consumption.
The US economy
is projected to grow 2.1 per cent this year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the World Bank's forecast in January. However, it raised the forecast for US growth in 2018, up 0.1 percentage point to 2.2 per cent. The growth will again slow to 1.9 percent in 2019, as it moves closer to potential.
Tax cuts and infrastructure programs could lead to stronger-than-expected growth in the short term, but also to a more rapid increase in interest rates.