Monsoon rain will arrive on the southern tip of Kerala by around June 1 and retreat from the western state of Rajasthan by September.
"We are not worried about El Nino at the moment because this weather pattern is likely to emerge only after July," KJ Ramesh, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon probabilities are:
* 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
* 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
* 50% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
* 25% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
* 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
The Indian economy is heavily dependent on agriculture and the livelihood of the Indian farmer largely depends on the Monsoon rains. Around 58 per cent of the total employment in the country is through agriculture. Also, the agricultural sector in our country contributes to around 18 per cent of the GDP.