Monsoon likely to remain below normal for India in 2017: Skymet

People traverse through the first rains of the season
According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon 2017 is likely to remain below normal at 95% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September. 

This may cause trouble for farmers and decide the fate of Kharif crop that depends heavily on the performance of the southwest Monsoon.

IMD had earlier reported that the country is likely to emerge unscathed from the El Nino weather phenomenon, as it is expected to set in only during the latter part of the four-month monsoon season.

Monsoon rain will arrive on the southern tip of Kerala by around June 1 and retreat from the western state of Rajasthan by September.

"We are not worried about El Nino at the moment because this weather pattern is likely to emerge only after July," KJ Ramesh, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

According to Skymet Weather, Monsoon probabilities are: 

* 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA) 

* 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA) 

* 50% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA) 

* 25% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA) 

* 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)

The Indian economy is heavily dependent on agriculture and the livelihood of the Indian farmer largely depends on the Monsoon rains. Around 58 per cent of the total employment in the country is through agriculture. Also, the agricultural sector in our country contributes to around 18 per cent of the GDP.


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