Among major kharif growers, states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have seen increased showers, with rainfall between 22-36 per cent above normal this season. In contrast, Haryana, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh have seen rainfall deficiency of 22-42 per cent. Bihar, which was deficient till the previous week, saw some catch-up last week.
In a number of states, delayed onset and catch-up of rains has affected sowing. In some others though, farmers have taken up re-sowing or delayed sowing to obviate some potential dent in production.
That said, rainfall volume data alone does not tell the whole story. We need to consider vulnerabilities that arise from inadequate irrigation for a comprehensive perspective on states and crops.
CRISIL's Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) does just that. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse the impact of deficient rains. We compare scores not just with the previous year, but also with the last five years' average, to get a more holistic picture.
The latest DRIP scores show stress in 3-4 states. The scores are the highest and also higher than trends in three — West Bengal, Bihar and Haryana — and higher on-year in Uttar Pradesh. This suggests crops there are likely to have suffered.
One of the limitations of the DRIP framework is that it does not factor in the adverse impact of excess rainfall. States which have seen excess rainfall this season are expected to have seen some negative impact on crops. Similarly, it does not consider the impact of re-sowing of crops.
Crop wise, DRIP shows no major damage to crops prima facie, but on an inter-crop basis, paddy (mainly because of deficient rains in West Bengal and Bihar) and maize (partly because of deficient rains in UP) have recorded the highest scores for the season.