Moody's slashes India's growth estimate to 0.2% for 2020 from 2.5%

Athough Moody's cut India's estimates for 2020, the economy is still moderately in the growth phase
Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday slashed India growth forecast for calendar year 2020 to 0.2 per cent, from 2.5 per cent projected in March. For 2021, the rating agency expects India’s growth to rebound to 6.2 per cent.

The rating agency had cut its projections from 5.2 per cent to 2.5 per cent after Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a nationwide lockdown on March 24.

India lost the tag of the fastest-growing major economy to China in 2019, when it grew 5.3 per cent, against China’s 6.1 per cent. The same holds true for 2020 and 2021. China is projected to grow 1 per cent in 2020 and 7.1 per cent in 2021.

Only China, India, and Indonesia are projected to witness economic growth in 2020 by Moody’s. It expects G20 advanced economies as a bloc to see a fall in its GDP by 4 per cent in 2020.

Japanese brokerage Nomura has predicted India’s economy to contract 0.5 per cent, while the Confederation of Indian Industry said the economy may contract by 0.9 per cent.

India Ratings & Research believed the contraction may be far steeper at 2.1 per cent if the lockdown is extended beyond May 3.


GDP growth rate estimates by various agencies for India

India Ratings (for 2020-21) (-) 2.1 to 1 per cent
CII (for 2020-21) (-) 0.9 to 1 per cent
Nomura (for 2020) (-) 0.5 per cent
Fitch ratings (for 2020-21) 0.8 per cent
Goldman Sachs (for 2020-21) 1.6 per cent
World Bank (for 2020-21) 1.5 to 2.8 per cent
IMF (for 2020-21) 1.9 per cent
Asian Development Bank (for 2020-21) 4 per cent
Source: Respective agencies  

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