According to official data, India recorded a surge of 168,912 Covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours. At the current run rate, it has emerged as the second-worst hit nation with 13,527,717 cases in total and the 4th-worst hit country in terms of active cases.
In this backdrop, a number of state governments - including that of Maharashtra and Delhi - have announced mobility curbs. Barclays believes that the number of new active cases is likely to stabilise in May, as recoveries catch up with new cases. That apart, vaccination should also pick up pace. However, India’s ability to continue the current run rate may be at risk, given incremental news
flow of supply shortages and vaccine bottlenecks, they said.
Almost 60 per cent of India’s economy is now subject to some mobility restrictions, Barclays believes, with key economic hubs such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan seeing rising Covid-19 cases and falling mobility.
As regards Maharashtra, the mobility curbs put in place in the wake of rising Covid cases would lead to a dip in gross value added (GVA) growth by 0.32 per cent at the overall domestic economy level in fiscal 2021-22 (FY22), CARE Ratings had recently estimated.
“Against these new guidelines our projections are that around Rs 40,000 crore of GVA will be impacted based on a single month of lockdown.
Any extension of the same will result in further loss of output from the state,” it said.
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