Presently, the ruling AIADMK has 113 members (excluding the Speaker) and its rival DMK-led alliance has 97 MLAs, including 8 from the Congress and one from the IUML. TTV Dhinakaran, nephew of AIADMK's late supremo J Jayalalithaa's close aide Sasikala, who became a rebel after the Palaniswami faction and O Panneerselvam faction joined to lead both the government and the party, is the lone independent MLA. If the DMK wins 21 seats in the by-polls, it would be in a position to form a government along with its allies, claiming a majority of 118 in the 234-member Assembly.
The EPS government could consider itself safe if it manages to win even 10 seats. Of the 113 members, the loyalty of five is with the Dhinakaran group and the Assembly Speaker has moved a notice against four of them, seeking reason not to disqualify them. Effectively, Palaniswami government has the support of 108 MLAs, and by winning ten seats he can reach the majority mark of 118. While Palaniswami faction has to win 10 seats to survive, Stalin has to win at least 21 seats to dislodge the present government.
Various exit poll surveys earlier this week predicted that the the DMK Alliance would get a majority in the Lok Sabha elections out of the total 39 seats in the state.