Long-run economic scenarios for the world economy
show that US GDP growth is expected to surpass that of China in 2040, according to the OECD.
By that time, China’s economy
will be 77 per cent larger in international
dollars than that of the US
In 2037, the economies of India and the US are expected to switch order too, as the world’s economic might shifts toward Asia. By 2060, China and India’s share of the of the global economy
will be larger than that of all OECD
countries combined. If one adds Indonesia, about half of the world’s economy will be represented by the three Asian countries.
incorporates metrics such as capital stock, productivity, employment growth and labor pool expansion to make long-view economic forecasts. The newest edition projects to the year 2060.
The research analysis includes all 35 OECD member countries, eight non-OECD G20 members and three key economic partners.
The OECD report also notes that demographic changes will force "governments to raise tax revenue by an average of 6.5 percentage points of GDP to meet health and pension needs while preventing government debt from rising."