The China smartphone market sell-through declined 8 per cent (YoY) in 2019 - the decline was steeper than the global smartphone market sell-through, which reduced 3 per cent (YoY).
"China handles at least 50 per cent of global smartphone production and the coronavirus outbreak is bound to adversely affect China as well as the global smartphone market," said Varun Mishra, Research Analyst at Counterpoint.
There will be disruption from the supply-side with production facilities of smartphones and components either shut down or running below full capacity due to labour shortages.
"The overall demand will also dramatically fall due to disruption in retail. Offline stores will be affected the most. We are estimating sales to drop over 20 per cent in China in Q1 2020," Mishra added.
The OEMs which will be affected the most are the ones having production facilities in the Wuhan area like Lenovo and Motorola, and the ones for whom China is the major market like Huawei.
OEMs like realme, Honor, and Xiaomi, which are more reliant on online distribution are likely to be least affected compared to those that have a relatively high share of offline sales, said Mishra.
While all the major OEMs declined - OPPO (down by 12 per cent YoY), Vivo (6 per cent YoY), Xiaomi (22 per cent YoY), Apple (26 per cent YoY), Huawei (including Honor) grew 28 per cent for the full year, capturing over one-third of the largest smartphone market in the world.
Huawei has been aggressive in China after the US trade ban, which has led to this growth.
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