"The consumption growth is projected in high single digits for the April-June quarter. For the year, it is expected to be 10-11 per cent, compared to 13.5 per cent in 2017, of several factors including GST roll up, and demonetisation in 2016 and 2017," Sameer Shukla, executive director, retail measurement services, South Asia, Nielsen (India), told reporters here.
He further indicated that the growth will be supported by a good monsoon for the third consecutive year.
GDP is also projected slightly higher at 7.4 per cent for FY19, compared with 6.6 per cent in FY18, the agency said, adding inflation is also projected higher, in the 4-6 per cent range, in the coming quarters.
The faster pace of rural growth, if it continues, will bear good news for the FMCG sector, Shukla pointed out.
Rural consumption had slowed down in 2017 due to sub-optimal monsoons in 2014 and 2015, and disruptions of demonetisation in November 2016 and implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) from July 1 last year, he said.
The rural/urban value growth ratio is up to 1.4x, in the March quarter, up from 1.1x in 2017, according to the agency.
Speaking about the trade, it noted that that modern trade has grown at 1.5x of the traditional trade in the March quarter, from the year-ago period.
Further, big manufacturers, with a sales over Rs 10 billion, got an edge over smaller ones during demonetisation and GST roll up, due to their direct reach network.
"Smaller ones, however, have bounced back and outpaced the growth of their larger counterparts in the last two quarters, owing to supply chain efficiencies," the agency said.
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