“But for the year after that, we could consider at least a quarter of our imports. This kind of opportunity will only come once in five years. Prices won’t remain this soft and the fiscal impact of the government’s stimulus measures this year will spill over to the next year. Our estimates suggest we can save as much as between 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent of GDP with the right kind of hedging,” Daruwala said.
prices have taken a massive hit in the last two months, and the future prices also turned negative for the first ever in April. The average of daily crude oil
prices, for the Indian basket of crude, in April was $19.90 per barrel, less than a third of the $71 per barrel seen in April last year. The daily price average for March was $33.36 per barrel, nearly half the $64.31 per barrel average recorded for January this year. The future prices on some oil indices briefly touched negative levels for April, as supply far exceeded demand.
For April, India imported 17.27 million tonne (mt) crude oil
and for the full financial year 2019-2020 (FY20), the country imported 226.95 mt crude oil. During FY20, India imported 60 per cent crude oil from West Asia, followed by 15.2 per cent from Africa, according to the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) data. The annual growth rate in net import is about 4 per cent. Typically, import is a mixture of sweet (Brent) and sour (Dubai/Oman).
Considering these huge numbers involved, an effective hedging strategy can save a considerable amount of money for the government, Confederation of Indian Industry
(CII) suggested the government.
Bidisha Ganguly, chief economist of CII, explained assuming the foreign exchange rate of close to Rs 75.5 a dollar, just $1 increase in price per barrel would entail an additional outgo of about Rs 11,800 crore per annum.
She further explained that about a $10 increase in per barrel prices impact gross domestic product (GDP) by 10-15 basis points, and increases inflation by 15-20 basis points. The fiscal deficit can widen by 0.1-0.5 per cent of GDP, if oil prices increase by $10, and the current account deficit can turn negative by 0.5 per cent of GDP. “Therefore, the sovereign must protect itself from such a rise in oil prices. The related idea is that oil prices are now low, but they won’t remain low for a long time. It will start rising very soon; already the futures are showing higher prices,” Ganguly said.
Why no hedging
State-run oil companies do not typically hedge for crude oil prices, a senior official from one of the three OMCs said. “State-owned oil refining companies don’t hedge crude and do not trade in the paper market. Our hedging is only a crack spread to protect our costs,” he said.
Refineries’ product prices are adjusted based on cracks with respect to crude benchmarks and so more often than not the external crude price variation in small percentages does not affect them significantly over a financial year. Since they have to procure mostly using tendering processes and months in advance, they only see this as procurement of raw material.
There is also a lack of trading desks objectives of which include minimising the risk and gaining value from crude oil-related transactions by leveraging the asset base, according to Rahool Panandiker, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group.
According to the OMC executive quoted above, in India, the concept of hedging is considered speculation. “Suppose, I hedge at $25 per barrel, the instruments used involved either paying a commission to keep it as $25 and another instrument allows for a range, where if it goes up I am reimbursed and if it falls, I will need to pay. Both these instruments involved speculation and we are not allowed to speculate on public money,” said the executive said.
The government also does not actively encourage OMCs to hedge. And fearing accountability in case of a loss, OMCs don’t hedge. According to Panandiker, the strategy to not hedge has led to a big hit in terms of inventory losses towards the end of FY20 because of the sudden crude price drop. “Now they will see some of this as inventory gains (crude they bought during low prices), but it will only cover the entire loss when prices are much closer to the earlier levels.” Industry experts point out private refiners in India have a robust crude hedging policy in place, however, the extent of exposure hedged is not disclosed.
The hedging mechanism
The best way to hedge oil is through buying derivatives — swaps or call options. Most seaborne crude prices and derivatives are broadly linked to Brent prices, given they are very liquid and easily observable.
The traditional ways of securing cheaper oil, such as acquiring oil fields, or contracting for oil at a fixed price, are not feasible anymore, a Singapore-based senior commodity trader explained.
Swaps can be used as a forward contract, where the country locks in a fixed rate to buy oil. It has no upfront cost, however, if oil prices fall, the country still will have to buy oil at the contractual rate.
The Brent swap levels for FY22 and FY23 are now at $41 per barrel and $44 per barrel, respectively. Another way is call option, in which the country pays a premium that protects against oil prices going up. At the same time, if oil prices fall, the country can still buy oil at market prices.
The premium, though, is the sunk cost. Most customers participate in call options, the commodity trader explained.
The Brent call option levels for FY22 is $45 for a $5.25 per barrel premium, and $60 for a $1.80 per barrel premium.