They expect the provisions to jump 3.8 per cent on a yearly basis but decline nearly 28 per cent sequentially to be Rs 1,890 crore in the recently concluded quarter. Accordingly, the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio is pegged at 1.37 per cent, up from 1.33 per cent in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal. The GNPA ratio, however, was 1.40 per cent in the first quarter of FY20.
During the quarter under review, the stock of India’s largest bank by market value has outperformed the benchmark indices. Between July and September, HDFC Bank dipped 1.2 per cent, as against a 2.6 per cent decline in the S&P BSE Sensex. The S&P BSE Bankex, too, tumbled 12.1 per cent during the period.
For the recently concluded quarter, the slippages are expected to show mixed trend as analysts eye stable numbers from the agri-sector but warn of stress in the retail space.
“Slippages should moderate as agricultural-slippages should be much lower QoQ… However, we will watch loan growth, current account-savings account (CASA) growth and NPLs from retail book,” said Prabhudas Lilladher.
For Q2FY20, loan growth of 17-19 per cent YoY, and 6-8 per cent QoQ between Rs 8.81 lakh crore and Rs 8.97 lakh crore is being eyed. On the deposits front, analysts at Nirmal Bang peg the deposits at Rs 10.2 lakh crore, a jump of 23 per cent YoY.
As for net interest income (NII), an estimated rise of 15-19 per cent is being eyed by analysts. Reliance Securities, for instance, pegs the NII at Rs 13,565 crore while Prabhudas Lilladher pegs the same at Rs 14,003 crore for the recently concluded quarter. Consequently, the net interest margin (NIM) is seen at 4.33 per cent.
Over the past year, the company’s market value has surged by $21 billion, more than any other bank worldwide, a Bloomberg report said. Analysts that Bloomberg spoke to said, HDFC Bank would grab market share from embattled shadow lenders and benefit from a flight to quality by investors who’ve grown wary of smaller competitors.