Here's a quick look at what leading brokerages expect from Maruti Suzuki's September quarter nos.
Despite 16 per cent YoY volume growth, Nomura expects Maruti's Q2 revenue growth at a lower 11 per cent YoY at Rs 18,871.2 crore due to around 5 per cent QoQ decline in average realisations owing to weaker mix. The bottom line is expected to grow 11 per cent YoY to Rs 1,508.4 crore. Meanwhile, on the operational front, lower discounts, strong cost control and stable commodity should expand margins by around 190 bps YoY to 11.3 per cent. Ebitda is seen at Rs 2,136.2 crore, up 33 per cent YoY.
The brokerage expects Maruti's revenue to grow 12.6 per cent YoY to Rs 19,125.8 crore from Rs 16,985.3 crore reported in Q2FY20. The revenue growth, however, would be lower than 16 per cent YoY increase in volumes, owing to decrease in realisation, which is expected to fall due to the discontinuation of diesel vehicles. Net profit may come in at Rs 1,640.5 crore, up 20.8 per cent YoY from Rs 1,358.6 crore in the year-ago quarter.
Further, the brokerage expects Maruti's gross margin to increase due to lower discounts and input cost. Also, Ebitda margin is expected to expand 114 basis points (bps) YoY to 10.6 per cent from 9.5 per cent. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and ammortisation (Ebitda) is seen growing 26.2 per cent YoY to Rs 2,026.8 crore.
According to the brokerage, Maruti Suzuki's volumes grew 16 per cent YoY during the quarter, while realisation is expected to improve around 1.4 per cent YoY on account of lower discounts and product mix, resulting in expected revenue growth of around 18 per cent YoY at Rs 21,181.2 crore. Further, Maruti is also likely to report 20.1 per cent YoY increase in net profit at Rs 1,631.8 crore.
"We believe stable raw material cost and positive operating leverage will help margins turn positive at 10.8 per cent (+130bps YoY) v/s -21 per cent in Q1FY21," it said.
Analysts at HDFC Securities expect Maruti's Q2 revenues to grow by 16 per cent YoY to Rs 19,770 crore, led by similar growth in volumes. Profit for the quarter is seen at Rs 1,500 crore. Further, the brokerage is estimating an Ebitda margin of 9 per cent, down 45 bps YoY.
"Demand trends, particularly that of entry-level cars, and new product introduction timelines will be the key monitorables," the brokerage said.
Analysts at Nirmal Bang expect Maruti’s earnings to grow by 28 per cent YoY to Rs 19,756.8 crore, led by 16 per cent YoY growth in volume and operating leverage benefits. Moreover, profit after tax is seen at Rs 1,975.7 crore, up 23 per cent YoY. Ebitda margin, meanwhile, should expand to 10 per cent.
"Average selling price (ASP) is likely to grow by 2 per cent YoY due to BS-VI models but the same will be partially offset by higher entry segment sales mix," it said.