Sensex hits 40k; dips 1,314 pts from high by close; Nifty holds 11,650

Benchmark indices tumbled over 1,300 points from its intraday high as investors booked profits at higher levels that saw Sensex and Nifty hitting 40,000 and 12,000 levels, respectively, over optimism surrounding the National Democratic Alliance (NDA's) likely return to power after the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

The S&P BSE Sensex hit the 40,000 mark on Thursday, after trends showed Narendra Modi - led NDA sweeping to power in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. FOLLOW ELECTION RESULTS LIVE HERE

The Sensex recorded its sharpest intra-day fall in the past 11 years in absolute terms. The index closed at 38,811 levels - down 299 points fir the day and 1,314 points from intra-day high level of 40,125. In the process, the index posted its sharpest intra-day decline since January 21, 2008. Vedanta Limited, ITC, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance led the list of losers. Out of the 30 BSE constituents, 16 ended in the red.

The broader Nifty50 index dipped 0.7 per cent to end the day at 11,657 levels. The market breadth was tilted in favour of sellers. About 920 stocks declined and 810 shares advanced on the NSE.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE MidCap index dropped 21 points, or 0.15 per cent, at 14,650 levels, while the S&P BSE SmallCap index concluded the day 16 points, or 0.11 per cent, lower at 14,353 levels.

Sectorally, all the indices on NSE, except Nifty Media and Realty, settled lower at the day's end, with Nifty FMCG bleeding the most 1.7 per cent, followed by Nifty Metal 1.48 per cent. The Nifty Bank index, which hit 31,000-level earlier in the day, dipped 118 points to 30,409 levels.

BUZZING STOCKS

IndusInd Bank shares surged 8 per cent to Rs 1,640 in early trade on Thursday on the BSE before ending the day 5 per cent higher on expectation that the bank would return to normalcy in terms of earnings momentum after the entire exposure to IL&FS was classified as non-performing asset (NPA) in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018-19 (Q4FY19). READ MORE

Shares of Adani Group companies surged up to 14 per cent intra-day on the BSE on Thursday as trends showed the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leading the vote counts for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. READ MORE


5:03 PM IST Congratulations to the Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri @narendramodi ji, all the NDA and BJP workers for achieving this miraculous win in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.— Chowkidar Arun Jaitley (@arunjaitley) May 23, 2019

5:02 PM IST I, on behalf of the people of Bhutan, offer heartiest congratulations to Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi @PMOIndia and his team on the election victory. As we look forward to working closely in years to come, we pray India achieves greater success under your leadership.— PM Bhutan (@PMBhutan) May 23, 2019

5:02 PM IST On behalf of the Government and the people of Tanzania, I congratulate Y'r Excellency Narendra Modi on y'r re-election as Prime Minister of India.This indicates the confidence that y'r compatriots have in you. Be assured of our commitment to strengthen our bilateral co-operation— Dr John Magufuli (@MagufuliJP) May 23, 2019

5:01 PM IST My heartfelt congratulations to Prime Minister @narendramodi for his great electoral victory. Together, we will make sure that relations between #Portugal and #India will rise to a new level of friendship and cooperation in the next years.— António Costa (@antoniocostapm) May 23, 2019

4:59 PM IST Congratulations to PM @narendramodi on a strong mandate from the people of India. The government and the people of Afghanistan look forward to expanding cooperation between our two democracies in pursuit of regional cooperation, peace and prosperity for all of South Asia.— Ashraf Ghani (@ashrafghani) May 23, 2019

4:59 PM IST Congratulations on your victory and the peoples re-endorsement of your leadership. Sri Lanka looks forward to continuing the warm and constructive relationship with India in the future.@narendramodi— Maithripala Sirisena (@MaithripalaS) May 23, 2019

4:58 PM IST Congratulations @narendramodi for your election as @PMOIndia. My best wishes for every success in your second term in office. I express my strong commitment to continue working with you in order to enhance the already solid and amicable relations between our two countries.

4:44 PM IST Any strong and stable government is in a better position to push the robust economic reforms.  The country needs far reaching major reforms in the area of land, agriculture and labour.  New government is therefore expected to address these issues on priority.   The Reserve Bank of India should also look at the possibility of increasing liquidity and reducing the interest rate, in view of the low inflation in last few years.  The government also need to offer fiscal incentives in GST and income tax  to increase economic growth and employment.  There is imperative need to improve the ease of doing business particularly for the small and mid-size businesses and also reducing the corruption affecting the common people in the country.   It is hoped that the new government with its strong support both in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha would be able to address all such issues on top priority and help increase the economic growth of the country.

4:42 PM IST The classic ‘BUY on expectation and SELL on news seems to have played out in today’s session. Some of the passive money that had come in the last three months at lower levels could be going out due to global worries. The strong election verdict is beyond expectation and long only money, both from FIIs and local investors will surely resume in the next few trading sessions. Rich valuations of Nifty closer to 12,000 levels (i.e. 19x Fw PE ) provides limited upside in large caps. There could be some near term concerns emanating from earnings downgrades that is taking place in the ongoing results season. With stability and visibility back in place we feel investors should focus more on Mid & Small caps rather than large caps.

4:24 PM IST "The larger than mandate stimulated the market to a new high providing a solid pre-election rally of 11 per cent YTD. Since the final outcome is in-line with expectation, we can have a mild consolidation in the short-term. This is because neither the earnings nor the economy has started to pick up and unlikely to revamp immediately as it takes 1 to 2 quarters before stabilizing. These factors along with premium valuation and muted global trend will start to control the momentum of the market as optimism gets digested. Whereas, in the medium-term we expect a healthy momentum in H2FY20 led by Mid & Small caps as earnings growth returns with continuity in reforms & stability in global market."

4:22 PM IST “This is a very clear result. There will be stability from an economic point of view and this is highly positive for the markets. On the other hand, the Nifty trailing PE is close to 29 and this is not a cheap market. There is a trade war between the US and China. Systematic Transfer Plans are a good way of reducing risk in such circumstances. In terms of segments , mid and small caps have corrected strongly over the past 12-18 months. Such companies tend to rally in a bullish phase and hence investors should have some exposure to them.”

4:22 PM IST "The second term is a reflection of India voting for stability. The government needs to target bringing growth back to the economy as its one point plan. The government’s chief move in the financial sector should be to address the lack of money movement at banks and accelerate the flow of money in the system at large. Investors need to be incentivized to invest in the NBFC sector both on the equity and debt side, to enable short-term and long-term funding. MFs have around Rs 1.3 trillion exposure to NBFCs (including HFCs) about to mature over the next 3 months. NBFCs play a critical role in providing credit of around Rs 8.5 trillion to the marginalised and economically backward which is the backbone of the Indian economy. Truckers, drivers, small business owners, affordable home owners all rely on NBFCs for credit, thus making them a critical ingredient in the financial sector."

LIVE UPDATES

Arun Jaitley tweets

EXPERT COMMENT | Anand Rathi, Chairman, Anand Rathi Group

Any strong and stable government is in a better position to push the robust economic reforms.  The country needs far reaching major reforms in the area of land, agriculture and labour.  New government is therefore expected to address these issues on priority.
 
The Reserve Bank of India should also look at the possibility of increasing liquidity and reducing the interest rate, in view of the low inflation in last few years.  The government also need to offer fiscal incentives in GST and income tax  to increase economic growth and employment.  There is imperative need to improve the ease of doing business particularly for the small and mid-size businesses and also reducing the corruption affecting the common people in the country.
 
It is hoped that the new government with its strong support both in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha would be able to address all such issues on top priority and help increase the economic growth of the country.

Post Market analysis by Kotak Securities

The classic ‘BUY on expectation and SELL on news seems to have played out in today’s session. Some of the passive money that had come in the last three months at lower levels could be going out due to global worries. The strong election verdict is beyond expectation and long only money, both from FIIs and local investors will surely resume in the next few trading sessions. Rich valuations of Nifty closer to 12,000 levels (i.e. 19x Fw PE ) provides limited upside in large caps. There could be some near term concerns emanating from earnings downgrades that is taking place in the ongoing results season. With stability and visibility back in place we feel investors should focus more on Mid & Small caps rather than large caps.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services Ltd on Lok Sabha results 2019

"The larger than mandate stimulated the market to a new high providing a solid pre-election rally of 11 per cent YTD. Since the final outcome is in-line with expectation, we can have a mild consolidation in the short-term. This is because neither the earnings nor the economy has started to pick up and unlikely to revamp immediately as it takes 1 to 2 quarters before stabilizing. These factors along with premium valuation and muted global trend will start to control the momentum of the market as optimism gets digested. Whereas, in the medium-term we expect a healthy momentum in H2FY20 led by Mid & Small caps as earnings growth returns with continuity in reforms & stability in global market."

Ankur Maheshwari, CEO Equirus Wealth Management on Lok Sabha results 2019

“This is a very clear result. There will be stability from an economic point of view and this is highly positive for the markets. On the other hand, the Nifty trailing PE is close to 29 and this is not a cheap market. There is a trade war between the US and China. Systematic Transfer Plans are a good way of reducing risk in such circumstances. In terms of segments , mid and small caps have corrected strongly over the past 12-18 months. Such companies tend to rally in a bullish phase and hence investors should have some exposure to them.”

Sanjay Chamria, VC & MD, Magma Fincorp on Lok Sabha election results

"The second term is a reflection of India voting for stability. The government needs to target bringing growth back to the economy as its one point plan. The government’s chief move in the financial sector should be to address the lack of money movement at banks and accelerate the flow of money in the system at large. Investors need to be incentivized to invest in the NBFC sector both on the equity and debt side, to enable short-term and long-term funding. MFs have around Rs 1.3 trillion exposure to NBFCs (including HFCs) about to mature over the next 3 months. NBFCs play a critical role in providing credit of around Rs 8.5 trillion to the marginalised and economically backward which is the backbone of the Indian economy. Truckers, drivers, small business owners, affordable home owners all rely on NBFCs for credit, thus making them a critical ingredient in the financial sector."

NEWS ALERT | Outgoing cabinet & council of ministers' meeting tomorrow at 5:30 pm: CNBC TV18

Cabinet will pass resolution to dissolve 16th Lok Sabha

L.K Advani praises Modi-Shah duo


Nitin Gadkari address media after BJP registers thumping victory at Lok Sabha 2019 elections

- Opposition has a crucial role to play in a democracy, we should all work together now for the country's development.

- Prime Minister is not of any party, he is of the country; it was wrong to call him "thief".

CAPA on Modi victory

EXPERT COMMENT | Garima Kapoor, Economist, Elara Capital

Reeling under consumption slowdown amid liquidity crisis in NBFC sector and lower terms of trade in the agriculture sector, optimism around India’s economic growth has come to a grinding halt. With limited fiscal space amid compelling priorities and electoral promises, the Modi government’s second term in office is likely to be more challenging than the first.
 
Unlike the first five years, the solution to the problems is complex and requires a radical shift in the economic policy. If the first five years of the government were dominated by housing, roads and toilets, the next five would have to be dominated by investment, jobs and nursing of the dislocated financial sector. Among immediate priorities we expect the Modi led government to take measures to revive consumption, address financial sector dislocation by recapitalizing PSU banks, boost manufacturing sector to ensure job creation and solve the conundrum of skill shortage in the country to ensure employability.

With the ruling NDA dispensation set for another five year term, the political risk has reduced and the market expectation for policy continuity has been addressed. We believe, the election related exuberance could propel the markets in the near term and pose an upside risk to our CY’19 Nifty target of 12,000. However, the current level of corporate fundamentals, trade wars and the progress of monsoon will weigh on the markets.  
 

Sectoral trends on NSE at close


Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex at close


Market at close


Market at close


Rupee Alert | Re breaches 70/$ mark,

Source: Bloomberg

Markets will go up if the govt can kick-start the economy: Andrew Holland

A tally above 300 for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is good news. This is what the market was hoping for. The budget NDA government put out last time will help consumption, but I think the new government needs to now come back with extra measures, which will help kick-start the economy without going overboard on the fiscal deficit. If the new government can do that, that is kick-start the economy again, then I think the markets will go higher. In doing so, I don’t think the markets will mind if there are minor slippages. READ MORE

Celebration time | BSE cuts 40kg cake to celebrate mount 40k


Chinese govt congratulates PM Narendra Modi on Lok Sabha 2019 election results


Market direction to depend on steps taken to accelerate growth: Nilesh Shah

Removal of political uncertainty is always a welcome situation from a markets point of view. Current mandate shows the maturity of voters in choosing a stable government. Now, with that uncertainty behind, the market will focus on steps taken by the government to encourage investment and give push to consumption, which is hitting a soft patch. READ MORE

Sectoral trends on NSE


Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


Nifty50 sheds 100 points


Market check | Sensex slips over 1%


NEWS ALERT | PM Narendra Modi tweets, says will build inclusive India

NDA 2.0: The new government has its task cut out

What a stunning mandate for the incumbent NDA! Despite the hardships faced after demonetisation and implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) along with the ongoing rural India farm stress, to return to power with an absolute majority, is symptomatic of the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with the absence of any coherent opposition. READ MORE


Illustration: Ajay Mohanty

'It's a victory of the nation'

Nifty Metal turns red


Stocks that hit 52-week high on S&P BSE Sensex

COMPANY PRICE(rs) 52 WK HIGH CHG(rs) CHG(%)
ADANI PORTS 412.35 430.00 25.55 6.61
ATUL 3792.95 3880.00 -14.15 -0.37
AXIS BANK 787.80 803.70 8.50 1.09
BAJAJ FIN. 3426.05 3529.00 -21.65 -0.63
CITY UNION BANK 210.50 211.20 1.95 0.94
» More on 52 Week High

PDP President Mehbooba Mufti congratulates PM Modi

Adani Group shares rally; Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises hit 52-week highs

Shares of Adani Group companies surged up to 14 per cent intra-day on the BSE on Thursday as trends showed the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leading the vote counts for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Enterprises, Adani Power, Adani Transmission, Adani Gas and Adani Green Energy were up 7 to 14 per cent on the BSE in early morning deal today, while Adani Enterprises (up 14 per cent at Rs 181) and Adani Ports (11 per cent at Rs 415) have hit their respective 52-week highs. READ MORE



Election result trends at this hour | NDA crosses 350 mark


Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 45,000; Nifty at 13,500 by June 2020

There is still some more headroom for the markets despite the poll-outcome driven rally that took the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 index above the 40,000 and 12,000 levels, respectively in trade on Thursday, the day votes were counted for 2019 Lok Sabha elections. READ MORE

Nepal PM KP Sharma Oli tweets congratulatory messages to PM Modi

NEWS ALERT | Nifty Midcap outperforming benchmark Nifty50

- Midcaps up 0.73% against a 0.43% rise in frontline index

ELECTION AND MARKETS: Ajay Bodke, CEO, Prabhudas Lilladher

  • A Herculean challenge awaits the newly-elected Modi government on the economic front. Problems galore and addressing them on a war footing to rev-up the fast slowing economic engine with faltering consumption, moribund private sector investments and anaemic exports should be the first priority. 
  • With limited fiscal space & build-up of massive balance sheet liabilities, a focused effort to address strong and sustained revenue mobilisation is necessary. 
  • Necessity to expend political capital very early-on to tackle factor reforms like land and labour to help generate employment opportunities for tens of millions of semi-skilled and unskilled workers is called for. 
  • Lack of adequate liquidity and high real interest rates are stifling aggregate demand. Sectors like NBFCs, real estate and automobiles are precariously perched and unless rescued through immediate intervention can further hurtle the economy on a downswing. 
  • Policies to encourage FDI flows to invest in long-gestation infrastructure projects, take-over ailing industries and recapitalise financial firms need to be put in place. 
  • Some of the issues equity markets will focus on are consolidation of PSBs, aggressive divestment of PSUs especially basket cases like Air India, BSNL-MTNL, increased private sector participation in sectors such as defence & railways, infusion of more transparency in managing behemoths like FCI & LIC and continuation of large investments in infrastructure

'Market rally post BJP win offers a good opportunity to rejig portfolio'

A clear mandate to Narendra Modi–led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the second time in a row lifted the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 to 40,000 and 12,000 levels, respectively for the first time ever. JITENDRA GOHIL, head of India equity research, Credit Suisse Wealth Management tells Puneet Wadhwa that before the new government takes up any major reforms such as in land and labour, we expect that the regulators and the government to address the liquidity issues with respect to NBFCs. READ MORE




Sectoral trends on NSE


Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


Market check


Market check


NEWS ALERT | PM Modi likely to address the nation at 6 pm today

- BJP Parliamentary board meeting at 5:30 pm meeting today.

Israel PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, says well done, my friend

Opposition reacts | Mamata Banerjee says, "not all losers are losers"

Piyush Goyal on poll outcome

EXPERT COMMENT: Sahaj Agrawal, Kotak Securities

Nifty continues to remain structurally positive for the medium term; 12,400/12,500 can be conquered going ahead. For the May series, we expect the index to trade in the range of 11,700-12,000. Consolidation at current levels is healthy as we have recently witnessed a strong recovery from 11,100 levels to test 12,000 on the higher sider. Broader market health is improving but we are seeing lack of momentum and hence expecting consolidation in the near-term.

EXPERT COMMENT | Rashesh Shah, CEO, Edelweiss

Hopes from new govt | Navtej Singh, CEO Digital Business, Hitachi Payment Services

It is our belief that the (new) government will take steps to further strengthen the fintech ecosystem in India. With the consumer in mind, the government should introduce regulations that are flexible in nature and benefit multiple stakeholders. While regulations like sandbox and ‘no-compromise’ approach towards safety will further drive innovation and security in the fintech space, a more market driven approach towards pricing, the timelines to implement the norms and flexibility would be equally important. The push towards more convenience, cost effectiveness and adoption of technology that make lives easier for every Indian citizen such as UPI, IMPS etc. should be the topmost priority

ICICI Bank rises almost 3.5%


OMCs trade higher

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
(rs)
CHG(%)
I O C L 157.45 160.10 155.05 1.85 1.19
RELIANCE INDS. 1363.00 1392.00 1354.00 22.30 1.66
H P C L 299.45 305.80 292.00 10.75 3.72
O N G C 177.05 178.95 174.50 0.50 0.28
B P C L 401.25 411.30 387.05 16.95 4.41
PETRONET LNG 239.15 242.85 237.00 2.15 0.91
INDRAPRASTHA GAS 307.90 313.60 305.00 2.30 0.75
OIL INDIA 184.05 186.90 181.60 1.70 0.93
CASTROL INDIA 145.45 147.70 144.50 0.60 0.41
GAIL (INDIA) 340.20 342.50 337.10 2.30 0.68

Nitin Gadkari praises leadership of PM Narendra Modi, Amit Shah

Congratulatory messages pouring in | Porinju Veliyath tweets to PM Narendra Modi

Nifty FMCG slips in trade, index down over 1%


ELECTIONS AND MARKETS: Nilkhil Kamath, Zerodha

"The elections have played out in line with consensus opinion, BJP looks like they will have a majority even outside the alliances that form the NDA. Consistency in leadership is a positive for the economy overall and should shore up sentiment amongst foreign investors. This could lead to Rupee strengthening and benchmark yields coming down over the short term. 
 
Specific to the Indian stock market; we believe they might have run up ahead of fundamentals buoyed by sentiment over the short term. It might be prudent to wait for the inherent fundamentals to catch up before waging big directional bets on the market right now."

A look at Sensex's 13-year journey from 10,000 to 40,000 levels

The S&P BSE Sensex hit the 40,000 mark on Thursday, after trends showed Narendra Modi - led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) sweeping to power in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. While most experts had predicted Modi-led NDA to come back to power for the second consecutive term, markets, they said, had been discounting this. READ MORE

Nifty sectoral indices


Rajnath Singh thanks the people of India

EXPERT COMMENT | Sachin Shah, Emkay Investment Managers

At a time when there is uncertainty over economic growth, political stability and continuity allow an economy to progress and rise above hurdles over a period of time. So this outcome offers hope that policy reforms will go in the right direction. 

ELECTIONS AND MARKETS | Rusmik Oza, Head of Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities

Nifty and Sensex tested 12,000 & 40,000 mark today. Based on the leads it is evident that NDA is coming back with likely single majority for BJP. Valuation wise Nifty at 12,000 trades at ~19x on Fw PE basis. Hence we see limited upside potential in the Nifty in the near future. Part of the passive money that has come by way of ETFs in the last three months could move out if Nifty goes above 12,000 level. We see more value and upside in the Mid & Small Cap space hereon. With NDA coming back into power we can expect local investors to take comfort in the Mid & Small cap space with a longer 2-3 year horizon and inflows could resume in them. Based on our reading of BJP’s Manifesto and interim budget, we feel the following sectors could benefit the most in the next one year: capital goods, construction, building materials, corporate banks, power equipment, housing finance companies. Consumption stocks could take a back seat because of the slowdown in demand and rich valuations.

Profit booking takes over, Sensex slips to 39,400 mark


ELECTION AND MARKETS: Deepak Jasani, HDFC Securities

The outcome of Loksabha elections has driven the markets up, though later an expected profit-taking took place. While now speculation will be rife about the cabinet formation and policy pronouncements in terms of thrust areas, the outlook of FPIs in terms of flows into India will be important to watch and track. Some FPIs who were waiting for the final results to come in may jump in; however bigger flows will have to wait for lower levels or path breaking announcements.  Cyclicals could be back in favour being the recipient of public spend benefits. Cement, PSU stocks including Banks, Capital Goods, Realty could remain in favour, others like Consumption could wait for better cues from monsoon and rural income revival.

Indiabulls Housing Finance gains


EXPERT COMMENT | Dhiraj Relli, HDFC Securities

YES Bank gains more than 5%


EXPERT COMMENT | Jagannadham Thunuguntla, Centrum Wealth

The thumping victory for BJP as per the early trends surpassing its winning tally of 2014 has pleasantly surprised even the bulls ... The continuation of policies and reforms is an added comfort ... The narrative should come back to employment, economy and earnings

Anand Rathi on State Bank of India

SBIN has provided a breakout from the 10 years consolidation with a clear buy crossover in its daily, weekly and monthly MACD which is a big breakout. The probability of an upside from hereon increases as the Index has started to form higher tops with gaps which indicates that the breakout is with increases in volumes. The stop loss is Rs 328.20

EXPERT COMMENT | Sensex hits 40K: Amnish Aggarwal, Prabhudas Lilladher

Election Results are positive for the market as it gives a stable Govt for the next 5 years. However post initial euphoria, focus would shift to hardcore economic decisions and the manner in which slowdown and economy is handled in Modi2.0. we are positive on long term for the markets, our NIFTY target in a bullish scenario is 13000, for which growth rates need to catch up.

EXPERT COMMENT: Sandip Sabharwal

FMCG stocks trade mixed

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
(rs)
CHG(%)
VIKAS WSP 14.30 14.75 13.95 -0.35 -2.39
SANWARIA CONSUM. 8.28 8.47 8.24 -0.02 -0.24
VIKAS PROPPANT 14.00 14.00 14.00 -0.25 -1.75
FOODS & INNS 68.50 70.70 67.50 -0.55 -0.80
KWALITY 5.65 5.90 5.61 -0.08 -1.40
DABUR INDIA 388.85 390.00 384.20 3.70 0.96
MANPASAND BEVER. 105.35 108.95 104.50 1.65 1.59
HIND. UNILEVER 1778.70 1803.00 1770.80 12.55 0.71
L T FOODS 29.00 29.40 28.60 0.05 0.17
MARICO 362.55 369.65 361.80 -0.55 -0.15

The NDA returns: Time to introspect policies that did not work

The return of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government to power does indicate a couple of things. First, there will be continuity in policy stance, which is good for the country. The second is that some of the economic issues that had taken Centrestage like employment, economic stagnation, falling consumption etc. did not matter in terms of affecting the decision of the electorate. It is not surprising that the Bharatiya janata Party (BJP) campaign this time was not talking about development or the Gujarat model, but other political issues and economic issues focused on the lowest common denominator which struck the right cord. READ MORE

Reliance Securities on Cipla

Last close: Rs 554

Target price: Rs 650

Recommendation: Buy


In light of healthy quarterly performance along with increased visibility in the US business, we upgrade our recommendation on the stock to BUY from HOLD with a revised Target Price of Rs650 (from Rs580 earlier).

A look at the party-wise trends and results

Trends at 11.30 am

Vedanta slides over 1.5%


Markets @40k: Views from Mr.B Gopkumar, ED and CEO, Reliance Securities

Markets were looking for stability, continuity and strong leadership rather than a fractured mandate - this has led to the new high. We believe India allocation from global funds will increase and more ETF flows are likely over the short term that could drive the markets even higher.

Rupee check

Source: Bloomberg


COMMENT :: Surendra Hiranandani, Founder and Director, House of Hiranandani

We expect that the new government can do away with unnecessary documentation which will help real estate players immensely. It is important that single window clearance is soon put into practice which will not only resolve operational issues prevalent in the industry, but would improve the productivity of the real estate industry.

Currently, the permissions are coming at a snail’s pace. Private sector participation in housing is necessary to bridge the gap between demand and supply and for that it is desirable to create policy framework to minimise and simplify approvals required for development of a real estate project. Real Estate sector stands amongst the critical sectors in terms of investments and employment and we look forward to initiatives that would further aid to the growth of the sector in the near future

Midcap pick by Prabhudas Lilldher


EXPERT COMMENT | Shyam Sekhar

Vedanta slips over 1%


MARKET COMMENT :: B Gopkumar, ED and CEO, Reliance Securities

Markets were looking for stability, continuity and strong leadership rather than a fractured mandate - this has led to the new high. We believe India allocation from global funds will increase and more ETF flows are likely over the short term that could drive the markets even higher

Modi defies contrarians, set to be first non-Congress PM to return to power

The contrarians had three or four assessments or assumptions about the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and the Bharatiya Janata Party, it would seem at the time of filing of this report at 10.30 am, has defied them all. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on his way to be the first non-Congress prime minister to return to power. CLICK TO READ FULL ARTICLE


Market check | Sensex off highs


Nifty PSU Bank erases gains


Stock mover by Anand Rathi

SBIN has provided a breakout from the 10 years consolidation with a clear buy crossover in its daily, weekly and monthly MACD which is a big breakout. The probability of an upside from hereon increases as the Index has started to form higher tops with gaps which indicates that the breakout is with increase in volumes. The stop loss is 328.20

 

ITC dips almost 1.5%


BJP begins celebrations | Suresh Prabhu calls BJP numbers "political tsunami"

MARKET COMMENT :: Abhimanyu Sofat, head of research, IIFL Securities

The early trend suggest a confirmation of the exit poll results, which has been taken positively by the market. Though the current index level already captures this outcome, any further trend in creating a more stable government will be considered positive by the market. Once the new government gets sworn in the focus needs to shift to arrest the recent slowdown in consumption and improve investment climate so that the GDP growth rate is sustained above 7.5%

Tech View: SBI up 4%. Should you stay invested?

SBI has provided a breakout from the 10 years consolidation with a clear buy crossover in its daily, weekly and monthly MACD which is a big breakout. The probability of an upside from hereon increases as the Index has started to form higher tops with gaps which indicates that the breakout is with increase in volumes. The stop loss is Rs 328.20. Target : Rs 418.5 in three months

(Source: Anand Rathi Securities)

MARKET COMMENT :: Motilal Oswal, CMD, MOFSL

This is a new beginning not only for the markets but for the whole country. India is on the way to be a super power leading the world


MARKET COMMENT :: Romesh Tiwari, Head of Research, CapitalAim

Markets are expected to trade in a wide range of 2-3% before the trends of results, in the afternoon, comes out. Consensus on the big upward rally on the victory of BJP lead NDA can be used for unwinding long positions on market heavyweights like Reliance, HDFC, SBI etc. If early trends suggest BJP winning, then the markets may make new highs and the rally we have seen on Monday will continue.

In that case Sensex can attempt to cross 41,500 and Nifty 12,300 and we can see profit booking at that level. Reaction of Midcaps and SmallCaps will be interesting to see as they are trading at better valuations than market heavy weights. On the other hand, if early trends show unfavorable for BJP then market can slide give up all the recent gains and heavy correction may set in for short term. In such a scenario, Sensex can slide to below 38,000 and Nifty below 11,000 very swiftly. In any case market may turn very volatile once the trends of results start coming over

Apollo Tyres rises nearly 3%


EXPERT COMMENT | Markets @40k: Views from Motilal Oswal, CMD, MOFSL

This is a new beginning not only for the markets but for the whole country. India is on the way to be a super power leading the world.

IndusInd Bank surges 18% from Wednesday's low post Q4 results

IndusInd Bank shares surged 8 per cent to Rs 1,640 in early trade on Thursday, recovering 18 per cent from Wednesday's low of Rs 1,386, on the BSE on expectation that the bank would return to normalcy in terms of earnings momentum after the entire exposure to IL&FS was classified as non-performing asset (NPA) in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018-19 (Q4FY19). READ MORE

Derivatives update by Prabhudas Lilladher

Bank Nifty for today's expiry witnessing 3100PE aggressively adding positions. PCR_OI at 31000 nearing 1, which implies expiry levels near this levels. PSUBANK counter looking strong for a TGT of 3450-3500 now.

Sushma Swaraj thanks Narendra Modi for BJP number

Most PSU stocks lost ground under the UPA II and NDA governments

Public sector enterprises are back on the government’s radar after it was learnt that the Ministry of Finance’s Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) has been examining plans to launch three equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the current fiscal year after the formation of the new government. READ MORE

Hindustan Petroleum rises over 5%


Nifty Bank gains over 1,000 points


EXPERT REACTION | Radhika Gupta

IndusInd Bank surges 18% from Wednesday's low post Q4 results

IndusInd Bank shares surged 8 per cent to Rs 1,640 in early trade on Thursday, recovering 18 per cent from Wednesday's low of Rs 1,386, on the BSE on expectation that the bank would return to normalcy in terms of earnings momentum after the entire exposure to IL&FS was classified as non-performing asset (NPA) in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018-19 (Q4FY19). READ MORE



Nifty IT - the only sector trading flat in an otherwise bullish market


NEWS ALERT | Nifty50 hits 12,000 mark


Market check | Sensex mounts 40k


Sectoral trends on NSE


Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


Market check


Market check


Early trends: Farooq Abdullah, Jitendra Singh leading in J&K constituencies

According to election officials, Abdullah was leading over PDP candidate Aga Syed Mohsin by a slender margin of 80 votes while Singh had opened a substantial lead of over 4,000 votes over his Congress rival Vikramaditya Singh. CLICK TO READ FULL STORY

Elara Capital on Somany Ceramics

Rating: BUY
 
Target Price : INR 551
 
At a CMP of INR 365, SOMC is trading at 14.5x FY21E earnings. We believe the company is well placed to report healthy volume growth in FY20, supported by improving industry dynamics for organized firms and increment volume from newly added capacity in South India. Margin would improve, due to operating leverage. Thus, we reiterate Buy with a TP of INR 551 based on 22x FY21E earnings.
 

EXPERT COMMENT: Sandip Sabharwal

Larsen & Toubro rises almost 4%


Banks may hold 20% in Jet Airways to make Etihad-Hinduja deal fly

Banks might agree to acquire up to a 20 per cent stake in Jet Airways as the Hinduja group is not keen to exceed its shareholding beyond 30 per cent in the grounded airline, sources close to the development said a day ahead of a crucial meeting at the Etihad headquarters in Abu Dhabi.
 
According to the plan discussed by the lenders’ consortium, led by State Bank of India (SBI), banks will hold the stake for up to two years. Subsequently, they can sell it and cash out. READ MORE

EXPERT COMMENT | Shyam Sekhar

Indiabulls Ventures rises over 5%


EXPERT COMMENT | Vijay Kedia

Canara Bank rises almost 5%


Hindustan Oil Exploration rises over 1%


Market Outlook by Sahaj Agrawal, Kotak Securities

After initial excitement seen early this week, Markets lost some ground on account of profit booking. We remain structurally positive on the markets and expect the markets to trade with a positive bias post elections. Any dip/correction is expected to act as a strong buying opportunity. We expect Nifty to test 12200-12500 on the higher side while meaningful support is seen at 11400 levels. Volatility is expected to remain high in the near term as index VIX trades at multi-year highs. Investors are advised to accumulate while traders can use volatility in their favor and follow a buy on dips strategy.

Vedanta Limited slides almost 2%


Sector watch | Infra-developers rise

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
(rs)
CHG(%) VALUE
(rs CR)
VOLUME
GMR INFRA. 15.65 15.95 15.60 0.25 1.62 0.27 172339
ADANI PORTS 398.55 401.00 392.75 11.75 3.04 5.30 132987
GVK POWER INFRA. 7.23 7.44 7.20 0.25 3.58 0.09 127490
LARSEN & TOUBRO 1504.60 1505.00 1473.30 44.05 3.02 14.98 99584
IRB INFRA.DEVL. 128.60 130.05 127.25 3.10 2.47 0.67 52431
IVRCL 0.51 0.51 0.49 0.02 4.08 0.00 32589
ENGINEERS INDIA 114.30 115.45 113.95 1.20 1.06 0.32 27668
JAYPEE INFRATEC. 1.86 1.87 1.81 0.07 3.91 0.00 19300

EXPERT COMMENT: Sandip Sabharwal

Sector watch | Cement sector gains

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
(rs)
CHG(%) VALUE
(rs CR)
VOLUME
INDIA CEMENTS 106.60 108.65 102.55 5.70 5.65 3.28 308117
AMBUJA CEM. 225.25 226.70 222.75 5.20 2.36 0.42 18480
PRISM JOHNSON 93.00 93.00 91.40 3.95 4.44 0.16 17581
SH. DIGVIJAY CEM 16.30 16.80 16.25 0.25 1.56 0.02 14646
CENTURY TEXTILES 996.35 1002.15 983.00 19.00 1.94 0.85 8543
SHIVA CEMENT 13.50 13.69 13.26 0.24 1.81 0.01 7200
ORIENT CEMENT 116.20 116.20 114.15 3.15 2.79 0.07 6218
UDAIPUR CEMENT 14.00 14.20 13.98 0.37 2.71 0.01 5501
JK LAKSHMI CEM. 377.60 382.00 376.40 5.80 1.56 0.14 3731

Bank of Baroda rallies over 7% on narrowed annual loss


Most active stocks by volume

COMPANY PRICE(rs) CHG(rs) CHG(%) VOLUME
RELIANCE POWER 8.18 0.40 5.14 2388339
ADANI POWER 49.65 2.85 6.09 871518
REL. COMM. 2.16 0.09 4.35 685121
SUZLON ENERGY 5.70 0.08 1.42 674193
YES BANK 142.00 4.30 3.12 527076
» More on Most Active Volume

IndusInd Bank zooms 7%


Opening gainers on S&P BSE Sensex

COMPANY PRICE(rs) CHG(rs) CHG(%) VOLUME
TIMKEN INDIA 727.75 61.30 9.20 18096
INDIA CEMENTS 107.55 6.65 6.59 210379
INDIABULLS VENT. 340.50 20.00 6.24 26902
ADANI POWER 49.70 2.90 6.20 814997
BHARAT FINANCIAL 1012.20 58.25 6.11 16569
» More on Top Gainers

EARLY TRENDS | NDA hits 300 seat mark


BSE Midcap index gains 1.4%


State Bank of India climbs almost 4%


NIfty PSU Bank index among top gainers

- SBI, J&K Bank, Bank of Baroda up 3-4%



DHFL climbs over 5%


IndusInd Bank gains over 5%, top gainer in BSE


Nifty Bank gains almost 500 pts, hits 31,000-mark


NEWS ALERT | NDA crosses halfway mark in early trends


Sectoral trends on NSE


Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


Market at open


Market at open | Sensex opens at record high


NEWS ALERT | Sensex rallies over 400 points during pre-open


Gainers and losers on the BSE at pre-open


Market at pre-open


Market at pre-open


Rupee opening

Rupee opens higher at 69.45/$ vs Wednesday's close of 69.66 against the US dollar

COMMENT :: ELECTIONS & MARKETS : Nomura

If exit polls are correct and the NDA returns to power with a majority, then we would expect policy continuity. Rural reflation, infrastructure spending, streamlining of the goods and services tax, direct tax reforms and the consolidation of public sector banks are likely to be the key priorities. Fiscal consolidation is an objective but will be a challenge in the absence of revenue mobilisation or a growth rebound


Inflation, GDP among slew of tough economic issues awaiting next govt

The contours of the next government, whether it would be a rag-tag coalition or one party-dominated, would become clear on Thursday. Whatever its composition, the coming government will have to look at the dire needs of the economy which has been slowing down, besides rising food inflation and crude prices, problems created by grounding of Jet Airways and the IL&FS crisis and consolidation in the banking sector. READ MORE

EXPERT COMMENT | Nifty to cross 12,000 today if NDA wins: Amit Gupta,TradingBells

We absolutely believe Nifty will cross 12,000 if NDA manages to secure a majority. However if this doesn’t happen and there is a hung parliament, or UPA comes into power, we can expect to see a huge correction in the markets over the next couple of days. In such a scenario, if Nifty breaches its last week low of 11,050 which also happens to be its current 200 DMA, then we can see further downside movement up to 10,450 where we see the next support.

As the poll haze clears, check out the top sectors experts are betting on

Apart from election results outcome, other key near-term monitorable include progress of monsoon, trends in rural consumption and events in the debt market READ MORE HERE

Sebi floats discussion paper to plug gaps in buyback regulations

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Wednesday floated a discussion paper to plug gaps in the buyback regulations.
 
At present, there is ambiguity on whether stand-alone and consolidated financials should be considered while evaluating various thresholds and conditions for buybacks. A company is permitted to conduct a buyback if its debt-equity ratio doesn’t exceed 2, after repurchase of securities. READ MORE

MARKET VOICES :: ELECTION & MARKETS

Andrew Holland, CEO, Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies, U R Bhat, MD, Dalton Capital, Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mutual Fund, Krishna Kumar Karwa, MD, Emkay Global, Jitendra Gohil, head of India equity research, Credit Suisse Wealth Management and Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings will share their views and strategies all through the trading day today

Trading strategy on 2019 Lok Sabha elections result day by HDFC Securities

On this volatile day of counting it makes sense to put stop losses for your trading positions. Best is to buy the options that limit the loss that you can incur up front. And constructing a bull or a bears spread further reduces your cost and the gains/protection. But mind you the options IV will fall dramatically after the event. 

Next govt has to undo power-grab that has hijacked India's institutions

India’s long and exhausting general election is almost over. One of its casualties has been the reputation of the Election Commission of India, the constitutionally independent body that oversees the polls.
 
For decades, the commission -- presided over by three former civil servants -- has had a reputation for enforcing the relatively strict rules governing Indian election campaigns impartially and firmly. READ MORE

BoB narrows net loss to Rs 991 cr in Q4 on accelerated NPA provisioning

Public sector lender Bank of Baroda has reported a net loss of Rs 991 crore in the last quarter of FY19, much less than the Rs 3,102-crore net loss that it reported during the same period last year.
 
The loss reported by the lender is on account of accelerated NPA provisioning for its telecom and IL&FS exposure. It has also provided fully for its exposure to Bhushan Steel and Alok Industries. The bank, however, had posted a profit of Rs 471.25 crore in Q3FY19. READ MORE

Aviation to roads: Here're the key transport challenges for the next govt

Private investment in airports, roads, and railways, besides successful commissioning of projects, will be key challenges that any ruling party will have to tackle in order to facilitate world-class transport services. At a time when private sector interest in airports is growing, two of the country’s biggest airlines — Jet Airways and Air India — are facing financial stress. READ MORE

COMMENT : ELECTIONS & ECONOMY :: Tanvee Gupta Jain, economist, UBS

The big question which many investors asked was if the government maintains power, is it willing to undertake big-ticket reform (land, labour, capital) critical for India to move to a sustainable growth path in the medium term? If Modi wins again, general expectations were that he would need to maintain reform momentum and focus on employment generation and the rural economy.
 
Our base forecast assumes policy continuity. In the near term, simplifying of the GST, support for the rural economy (assured income support of Rs 6,000 / year / farmer, affordable housing and health schemes), boosting public infrastructure capex and strengthening the banking system are likely to be key priorities.

Early trends show lead for NDA in 2019 Lok Sabha elections


Power and telecom challenges the next govt must tackle after May 23

Power and telecommunication sectors have seen excess capacity and squeezing margins after aggressive bidding, both for electricity tariffs and spectrum, over the years. Regulatory challenges and setting templates for realistic bids could be the way forward.
 
Renewable status India is targeting to add 1 lakh Mw of solar and 60,000 Mw of wind power by 2020 to meet its climate change commitment of 40% power generation from renewable sources. While solar power has seen an unprecedented rise, wind has slowed down due to change in bidding terms. READ MORE

COMMENT : ELECTIONS & MARKETS :: Jefferies

India's equity markets rallied to all-time highs on 20 May after Exit Polls forecast a stunning NDA majority. If this is confirmed on 23 May, we expect the euphoria to sustain near-term before the markets pivot back to the macro. The trends here are discomfiting with a structural fix likely to take time but stimulus, especially monetary, may still lift sentiment for industrials and discretionary. We raise weights here, therefore, but financials remain our highest over-weight. 


COMMENT : ELECTIONS & MARKETS :: Gautam Duggad of Motilal Oswal

We do not see a room for significant re-rating for markets given the underlying fair valuations (19x FY20 Nifty EPS) and continued earnings downgrades. Assuming, no material change in actual results versus the exit poll predictions, we expect the market’s focus to revert to fundamentals post the election and government formation. Progress of monsoon, trends in rural consumption and events in debt market will be key near-term monitorables, in our view.

Govt must ensure fiscal consolidation, privatisation of PSUs: Panagariya

The next Indian government must show strong commitment to fiscal consolidation, consolidate central ministries, go for aggressive privatisation of public sector undertakings and create a new international trade negotiation entity to fast-track the economic growth of the country, eminent Indian- American economist Arvind Panagariya has said. READ MORE

COMMENT : ELECTIONS & MARKETS :: Vikas Khemani, founder, Carnelian Capital Advisors

Markets are dealing with several big uncertainties right now like the election outcome, earnings momentum, tight local liquidity, global trade issues and global growth moderation. All these issues will keep the markets volatile and uncertain over the next three – six months. As some of these issues start to settle, markets should also start stabilising and create a base for growth. Given the overall uncertainty, even flows will remain volatile. READ INTERVIEW HERE

COMMENT : ELECTIONS & MARKETS :: Shankar Sharma of First Global

Historically, the markets have had no real love for any party. The markets are a very promiscuous bed fellow. I don’t pay much attention to what the markets’ immidiate reaction is to the change in government. Even if the same government comes back to power, the markets would eventually look past it. This is much like the Budget, which is a much-touted event. The reality is that what the market does that day is forgotten in a few days. READ FULL INTERVIEW HERE

SGX Nifty turns green as 2019 Lok Sabha election results' trends in India show NDA leading


Privatisation, exports to be top priority for new govt after Lok Sabha elections 2019: Goldman Sachs

Land and labour reforms, privatisation and export promotion would be at the top of agenda of the new government irrespective of which party or coalition takes charge after the poll results on May 23, a report has said.
 
Most exit polls have predicted a sweeping victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which is expected to win over 300 seats in the election.READ MORE

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 results LIVE updates

Slowing economic growth, lack of fiscal space will challenge next govt

Slowing economic growth and lack of fiscal space to boost it would be the main concerns of the next government. Economic growth is officially projected to come down to 7 per cent in 2018-19. Boosting private investments would be the key to spur growth, for which also the government has to rein in its fiscal deficit so that resources are not crowded out. READ MORE



Illustration: Binay Sinha

Interesting analysis of Lok Sabha elections 2019

NEWS ALERT | Counting of EVMs likely to begin at 8:30 am.

Till then, postal ballots reflect which way service voters (armed forces, and more) are leaning.

Crucial foreign policy decisions for the Indian government after 2019 Lok Sabha elections verdict

Eminent Indian experts in the US believe that the next Indian government to be formed after the declaration of the election results on May 23 faces crucial foreign policy decisions, particularly in the economic realm. READ MORE

EXPERT COMMENT | Shyam Sekhar on SP-BSP alliance

New govt should ease land acquisition, scrap archaic labour laws: CEA

India’s new government should make it easier for companies to acquire land and scrap archaic laws around hiring workers as part of its first reform measures, the finance ministry’s top adviser said. READ MORE

Lok Sabha Elections 2019 results LIVE updates

Nifty can slip up to 15% if Narendra Modi-led NDA fails to form govt: UBS

As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections enter their final lap, with polling for only one of the seven seven phases left, all eyes are now on the outcome, which will be known on May 23. This uncertainty, coupled with other global developments, has kept the markets volatile in the past few sessions. READ MORE

Check out the top sectors experts are betting on under new govt post Lok Sabha 2019 elections

Better-than-expected exit polls that showed clear majority for the Narendra Modi-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the Lok Sabha elections 2019 gave an over 1,000-point lift to the S&P BSE Sensex on Monday.
 
The rally was broad-based as all the sectors, barring information technology (IT), witnessed heavy buying. Heavyweights such as ICICI Bank, RIL (Reliance Industries), HDFC and Larsen & Toubro (L&T) rallied over 4 per cent each in intra-day trade. READ MORE

Narendra Modi's to-do list for investors if he gets a second term

What Donald Trump would give to have rallies like Narendra Modi’s: the adulation, the machismo, the beautiful bigness of it all. Indian democracy makes American democracy seem quaint, puny and rather un-great. The Indian prime minister’s event in Bhadohi, one of three on a recent May day in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, has started late and the heat is sweltering. But there are still more than 50,000 people in a field, most of them men. The event surges with testosterone: part open-air concert, part cup final (everyone is wearing saffron, like a stadium of Dutch soccer fans), and part religious ceremony. READ MORE



Numbers show next govt's job at hand is to boost employment in India

Generation of jobs would be one of the main tasks for the new government after Lok Sabha elections 2019. In this connection, subscription to Employment Provident Fund (EPF) provides bit of an indication in the organised sector. According to official numbers, 6.79 million jobs were created in FY'19. READ MORE 

Another term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents a pitfall and an opportunity

Expectations from the next government at the Centre have run very high. Going by the exit polls on the seven-phase general elections for the 17th Lok Sabha, which ended last Sunday, Narendra Modi will get another five-year term as prime minister with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing a majority on its own. READ MORE

From FDI to e-commerce policy: The agenda for the next government

The Narendra Modi government took many initiatives such as Startup India and improved India’s rank in Ease of Doing Business. But this has not quite translated into higher foreign direct investments despite the government changing the norms for FDI thrice. The new government’s challenge would be to reverse the tide in FDI, boost manufacturing and come up with an e-commerce policy that is fair to all investors. READ MORE

Political stability is a key factor for FII inflows: Nischal Maheshwari

Investors are keenly watching political developments with the general election reaching the halfway mark. Nischal Maheshwari, chief executive officer for institutional equities & advisory at Centrum Broking, tells Puneet Wadhwa that the larger issue at hand is earnings growth and not the election outcome. READ MORE

Satta market Lok Sabha poll verdict: BJP to get 244-247; 80 for Congress

The satta market is betting on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form the government for the second time in a row, with Narendra Modi continuing as the prime minister. After the poll dates were announced, the illegal betting market came out with the number of seats that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win on May 23. The market is sticking to those numbers, with some minor changes. READ MORE



Elections and stock prices

We have seen big election-related moves of the stock market in the past. But with the benefit of hindsight, the market’s forecast of future profit growth has been poor. This is part of a larger pattern, where the Indian stock market is often good at sizing up one company at a time, but fails to understand the macro forces that are shaping the entire country and influence all firms. READ MORE




Betting big on exit polls is risky: Investors have been stumped before

In a note, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has highlighted how exit polls have been off the mark in two of the previous four occasions, catching many investors off guard. While Monday’s buying signals that investors have priced in a BJP victory, experts advise retail investors to wait till the final outcome.  READ MORE

Markets on election results day: How investors are preparing to trade

How will the markets react if the election results mirror exit polls?
 
Experts say the market has largely priced in an NDA victory and don’t rule out a further uptick if the ruling coalition, indeed gets a majority. Analysts say the Nifty could breach 12,000, a 2.2 per cent rise from current levels. READ MORE 

Advantage exit poll: A battered corner of $2.1 trn stock market may shine

A battered corner of India’s $2.1 trillion stock market -- mid-cap shares -- may be ready to shine after exit polls in India signaled a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
 
While the benchmark Nifty 50 Index rallied 3.7% to a fresh peak, the Nifty MidCap 100 Index advanced 4.1% as the strength of the projected victory boosted the broader market. The outperformance may continue if Modi does indeed emerge victorious, analysts say. READ MORE

How the next govt can put banking and financial sector back on track

This June is going to be a punishing month for the next finance minister.
 
The country’s financial market is choked: The slow pace in the resolution of dud-loans, the contagion from the blowout at the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS), and a liquidity bind threaten vast swathes — from non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), mutual funds to realty firms — and all those caught in-between and around them. READ MORE

Sensex rallied 1400-pts on Monday post exit poll results; best post-exit poll rally since 1999

The benchmark indices on Monday posted their biggest post exit poll intra-day gain since the 1999 Lok Sabha elections with the S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty50 rallying nearly 2.7 per cent each, expecting ruling the Narendra Modi – led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to return to power at the Centre. Exit polls showed the incumbent government bagging close to 300 seats in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. READ MORE

Exit polls and markets: Beware! Play the expected euphoria with caution

Markets remained highly volatile during last week with the Nifty conquering the 11,400 mark after threatening to go below 11,100 early in the week. It started the week on a pessimistic note, after IIP contracted to 0.1 per cent in March 2019, the lowest in 21 months. Continued selling by the FIIs ahead of the General Election outcome and the prevailing trade war tensions between US and China kept the market nervous. Sentiments got further hit after Indian Met department’s announcement of a late arrival of monsoon, dampened the early revival prospects of consumption focused sectors. READ MORE

Lok Sabha polls 2019: Why do elections tend to influence the stock markets?

While analyzing returns post elections, one needs to keep in mind economic conditions as well as valuations. For example, in 2004, the 17% return during the quarter came despite the indices hitting the lower circuit on the results day. In 2009, markets were just coming out of the Lehman crisis and had actually bottomed out in early 2009 and therefore valuations were extremely cheap while the economy was improving. Year 2014 was slightly more complex as markets had already rallied from late 2013 on the back of the Modi wave. READ MORE
 

Stock calls by Tradebulls Securities: Buy Hero MotoCorp, Hindustan Unilever

The Nifty50 index continues to consolidate post attaining new life highs, as expected. Profit-booking at new life highs led to technical pullback in prices post sharp upside. Occurrence of “Bullish Hammer” on weekly scale suggests the lager uptrend resumed and the same remains intact for the rally that commenced from its February lows of 10,585.  READ MORE

Bulk deal on NSE as on Wednesday

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI


Rupee check

Source: Bloomberg


Oil check

At 7:35 am, Brent crude futures were trading at $70.59 a barrel. 

SGX Nifty

At 7:30 am, SGX Nifty was trading 22 points lower at 11,757.50 levels indicating a weak start for the indices today.

Asian Markets check

Source: Reuters


Wall Street check

Source: Reuters


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