Sensex gains 447 pts, ends at 45,080 as RBI revises FY21 GDP growth outlook

NSE's Nifty ended at 13,259, up 125 points, or 0.95 per cent.
The bulls continued to be in the driver's seat on Friday as the benchmark indices scaled fresh all-time highs after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised upwards the economic growth projections for the fiscal year 2020-21 (FY21) and assured ample liquidity for the stressed sectors. 

The S&P BSE Sensex hit a new milestone today as the index breached the crucial 45,000 level for the first time ever to end at 45,080 levels, up 447 points, or 1 per cent. On similar lines, NSE's Nifty ended at 13,259, up 125 points, or 0.95 per cent. Volatility index, India VIX, dropped over 5 per cent to 18 levels. 

On a weekly basis, Nifty gained 2.2 per cent while Sensex added 2 per cent. 

In the broader market, the S&P BSE MidCap index ended 0.44 per cent higher at 17,389 levels while the S&P BSE SmallCap index settled at 17,317, up 72 points, or 0.42 per cent. 

On the NSE, all sectoral indices ended in the green with Nifty Bank surging the most - up 2 per cent or 604 points to 30,052 levels. 

Global markets

Asian shares scaled a record high on Friday on growing prospects of a large US economic stimulus package, while hopes that coronavirus vaccine rollouts will boost the global economy underpinned investor sentiment.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.78 per cent while Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.22 per cent on profit-taking. 

In Europe, stocks were mixed. 

In commodities, oil prices jumped around 2 per cent on Friday, heading for a fifth week of gains, as major producers agreed on a compromise to continue some cuts to production to cope with coronavirus-hit demand even though these fell short of expectations.

(With inputs from Reuters)


MARKET COMMENT :: Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking

Markets managed to post decent gains on Friday amid volatility. All eyes were on the RBI policy meeting outcome and the dovish commentary from the RBI and improved growth outlook lifted sentiments. Consequently, the Nifty index ended higher by 1 per cent at 13,259 levels. The broader markets, too, ended with healthy gains of 0.4 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively. Amongst the sectors, all the indices ended with gains wherein Banking, Telecom, and Consumer Durables were top performers.
With all the major events behind us, we feel global cues would dictate the market trend ahead. Besides, news related to Covid vaccines will also be in focus. Mostly rate-sensitive stocks ended on strong footing and we may see follow-up buying next week. Having said that, traders should not get carried away with the prevailing buoyancy and stick to quality names as we can’t ignore the possibility of an intermediate corrective phase.

All sectoral indices on the NSE end in the green

MARKET AT CLOSE | Gainers and losers on the S&P BSE Sensex


The S&P BSE Sensex gained 447 points, or 1 per cent to 45,080 levels while the NSE's Nifty ended at 13,259, up 125 points, or 0.95 per cent.


BUZZING STOCK | Indostar Capital Finance jumps 18%

Nifty Bank index surpasses 30,000-mark in intra-day trade

IPO ALERT :: Burger King India IPO subscribed nearly 86x till 2:45 pm on Day 3

MARKET COMMENT :: Anagha Deodhar – Economist, ICICI Securities on RBI Policy

Today’s monetary policy review was largely a non-event. In line with our expectation, the MPC kept rates unchanged and vowed to keep the stance accommodative at least during the current financial year and into the next financial year. It noted that inflation is likely to remain elevated despite some possible softening during winter months. Accordingly, it upped its inflation forecast to 6.8% in Q3 and 5.8% in Q4FY21. Given the positive growth impulses, the committee also upped its growth forecast to -7.5% during FY21 from -9.5% in the Oct review. Given the expected inflation and growth trajectory, we believe the committee may stay put on rates through 2021

BSE Healthcare index hits new high; Sun Pharma, Laurus Labs gain up to 5%

At 02:16 pm, the S&P BSE Healthcare index was up 0.82 per cent at 20,958 points, as compared to a 0.52-per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. The healthcare index hit a fresh record high of 20,991 in the intra-day trade, surpassing its previous high of 20,689 touched on September 18, 2020. READ MORE


You cannot put lakhs in difficulty for hours: RBI governor on HDFC Bank

“You see, we cannot put hundreds of thousands of customers who are using digital banking into any kind of difficulty for hours together, and especially when we are ourselves giving so much of emphasis on our digital banking, it is important that the public confidence in digital banking as today are maintained," Das said, referring to the central bank's order Thursday. READ MORE

RBI eases banking and document handling procedures for exporters

Explaining the move, exporters body FIEO director general and CEO Ajay Sahai said during Covid times, many exporters have directly shipped documents to the buyers. Status holder exporters are allowed to send documents directly to buyers but others are allowed only in the case of advance payments because RBI feels that small exporters are not equipped to handle documents and should route them through banks. READ MORE

Sudarshan Chemicals extends gain as Fidelity Pacific Fund buys stake

Shares of Sudarshan Chemicals gained 5 per cent higher to Rs 512 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in intra-day trade on Friday, thereby rising 8 per cent in the past two trading days after Fidelity Pacific Fund bought nearly one per cent stake in the company via open market. On Thursday, December 3, Fidelity Pacific Fund has bought 568,924 equity shares, representing 0.82 per cent, at Rs 463 per share on the NSE, the bulk deal data shows. READ MORE

MARKET COMMENT :: Dhiraj Relli, MD &CEO, HDFC Securities on RBI Policy

The outcome of the MPC meet on Dec 04 was largely on expected lines including the status quo on rates. The Committee's assurance to continue with the accommodative stance of monetary policy as long as necessary – for the current and next year - is welcome. The MPC feels that inflation is likely to remain elevated, with some relief in the winter months from prices of perishables and bumper kharif arrivals and has raised inflation projections for H2FY21 and H1FY22. The fact that as per the RBI, CPI may not fall materially even in H1FY22 is a bit worrying.
The Governor did not mention about asset quality issues or their trends. In the passing he mentioned that debt servicing capacities of corporates has risen in Q2FY21 meaning that the RBI does not perceive any deterioration in asset quality from the last policy review.
The real GDP growth projections have been upped. While the Q4 growth projection is below expectations, the H1FY22 projections bring in a sense of relief.
No measures have been announced to mop up the excess liquidity in the Banking system which has arisen because of high inflation and Forex sterilization. On the other hand, the RBI has assured provision of adequate liquidity to deserving segments. The real interest rate on the short end of the curve will remain severely in the negative for some time penalizing the savers. One hopes that this does not affect the savings rate materially.
All in all a welcome policy announcement with RBI maintaining the liquidity rope and hinting/hoping that asset quality stress seems under control.   It seems that rates may remain on hold atleast till Mid March 2021.

Recovery from intra-day lows in today's session

INDOSTAR CAPITAL 295.10 355.00 349.00 18.26
I R C T C 1383.85 1596.00 1555.10 12.37
ADANI POWER 56.20 64.00 61.30 9.07
JTEKT INDIA 80.10 87.85 86.55 8.05
Click here for the full list

Top gainers on the BSE at this hour

Stocks that hit 52-week high on BSE today

ADANI PORTS 447.65 448.65 2.73
ADANI TRANSMISSI 433.55 444.60 1.36
APL APOLLO TUBES 3567.00 3580.00 0.36
ASIAN PAINTS 2409.75 2426.80 -0.05
BAJAJ ELECTRICAL 600.90 605.00 1.16
» More on 52 Week High

BROKERAGE VIEW | ICICI Securities on Mindtree


Healthy order book, higher pipeline, strategy to drive large deals, hire tier 1 leaders to scale growth and expertise in digital technology bode well for long term growth. This, coupled with ability to sustain healthy margins, prompt us to remain positive on the stock. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating and target price of Rs 1,680/share (22x FY23E EPS).

Indian aviation industry to report a net loss of Rs 21,000 cr in FY21: Icra

The Indian aviation industry is expected to report a net loss of Rs 21,000 crore in the current financial year (FY21) against a net loss of Rs 12,700 crore in FY20 due to lower revenues and high fixed costs, according to ICRA. The industry's debt level will increase to Rs 50,000 crore (excluding lease liabilities) over FY 2021-22 and the industry will require an additional funding of Rs 35,000 crore to 37,000 crore over FY21 to 23. READ MORE

RBI strengthens grievance redress framework of banks for better service

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to put in place a comprehensive framework to strengthen and improve the efficacy of the internal grievance redress mechanism of the banks and to provide better customer service. READ MORE

FMCG stocks in focus

Sensex can hit 51,000 levels in six months, technical charts suggest

Markets continued its record-breaking streak on Friday as the benchmark indices, S&P BSE Sensex and NSE's Nifty, scaled fresh lifetime highs during the day after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent and maintained an accommodative policy stance. READ MORE

MARKET COMMENT :: Jyoti Roy - DVP- Equity Strategist, Angel Broking

The RBI, in its bi monthly MPC meeting, left the key repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 4.0% and 3.35%, respectively. The RBI has also maintained its accommodative stance and has decided to look through higher inflation.

The RBI has also upgraded their GDP growth estimates for FY21 to -7.5% from earlier -9.5% given strong pick up in economic growth over the last few months.

Though inflation is expected to remain somewhat elevated over the next few months, the RBI has decided to look through it and rates are likely to remain at current levels for the foreseeable future. While further rate cuts may be ruled out, given elevated inflation levels, the RBI is unlikely to raise rates in the foreseeable future  which will provide comfort to the markets.

The spreads between the overnight rate and the 10 year rates remain high at ~180-200 bps as against a normal spread of ~75 bps due to concerns over fiscal deficit.

We believe, though there are unlikely to be any rate cuts in the near future, full transmission of 250bps rate cuts by the RBI so far are yet to happen which can lead to some further easing in lending rates as and when concerns over the fiscal deficit recedes. 

Top losers on the BSE at this hour

Deepak Jasani :: High inflation amid muted GDP forecast could be a party pooper for markets

Amid the expected policy outcome, the RBI has asked commercial banks to refrain from paying out dividends to shareholders for FY20. The decision makes sense as the outlook with respect to non-performing assets (NPAs) remains uncertain. In this situation, it is better to conserve banks’ capital.Therefore, shareholders won’t mind foregoing their dividends as long as the prices of the shares they hold remain largely intact. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT :: There is a need for all the banks, NBFCs to work on their IT systems, says RBI Guv

>> They all need to invest heavily on their technology infra going-forward

>> We all constantly in touch with various banks where we see deficiency in tech-systems

>> As a regulator, it becomes imperative to take stringent steps, if necessary, to nudge banks to address issues. 

COMMENT :: Barclays on RBI policy

While the MPC retained its phrasing around the room for rate cuts, our inflation trajectory – and now the RBI’s – does not suggest there is room for a material reduction of policy rates in the near term. We believe this preference for continued foreign exchange intervention, reserve building and flush liquidity conditions is ultimately tied to reviving growth. 
The RBI may choose to maintain this position until it sees the drivers of growth become broad based. We also think inflation is a secondary concern in the RBI’s view, given weak aggregate demand conditions. Continue to forecast that the RBI will stay on hold through 2021, as a reviving economy and sticky inflation weigh on its ability to deliver rate cuts.

Illustration: Ajay Mohanty

RBI Guv on HDFC Bank :: HDFC Bank has overwhelming presence is digital payment space

>> Therefore we wanted the bank to overcome its shortcomings or digital infra before expanding

Panacea Biotec dips 13% in two days after Serum Institute cuts stake

Shares of Panacea Biotec dipped 8 per cent to Rs 214 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday, falling 13 per cent in the past two trading days, after Serum Institute of India sold its stake in the company via open market. The stock slipped 19 per cent from its 52-week high level of Rs 265 touched in intra-day trade on December 3, 2020. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT :: Not considering WPI as an anchor to target inflation, says RBI Guv

>> Monetary policy action is taken using CPI Inflation into consideration

>> RBI is not thinking switching to WPI

NEWS ALERT :: FM Sitharaman has said the budget would be 'growth-oriented', and not necessarily 'expansionary', says RBI Guv

>> All the fiscal measures, so far, have been prudent and caliberated

>> Budget has to be growth-oriented to come out of the havoc created by the Covid-19 pandemic

NEWS ALERT :: We have strengthened our supervisory measures, says RBI Guv

>> PMC and LVB were results of the same measures

>> Our efforts are, first, to work with the management. If that doesn't work, RBI steps in.

COMMENT :: Aditi Nayar, vice-president and principal economist, ICRA

A pause from the Monetary Policy Committee in its December 2020 policy review was the foregone conclusion, given the further hardening of inflation, and the shallower than expected contraction in GDP in Q2 FY2021. 
Regardless of the MPC's conclusion that India has already exited from the recession that gripped it in H1 FY2021, a continued output gap resulted in the expected continuation of the accommodative stance. 
In our view, the adverse outlook for inflation, the concern that price pressures are spreading, and the strong commentary around monitoring threats to price stability to anchor macroeconomic and financial stability, indicate that the room for further rate cuts is negligible. However, an extended pause will mean that rates will remain low for a long period of time. 
The additional layers of reform unveiled by the RBI, measures aimed at funneling liquidity toward credit, and the signals that liquidity will not be withdrawn hurriedly, will serve well to boost sentiment, and cap yields. 

Aditi Nayar, Principal economist ICRA

NEWS ALERT :: RBI likely to release Financial Stability Report by December end, says RBI Guv

>> The report to contain revised NPA projections based on SC order

NEWS ALERT :: I have assured that liquidity will be available, says RBI Guv

>> MPC Member Michael Patra says, there is asymmterical distribution of liquidity in the economy

>> The hope the measures announced by the RBI will lead to symmentrical distribution of liquidity in the system

Chris Wood hikes exposure to Indian equities despite expensive valuation

The sharp up move from the March 2020 low in the absence of a meaningful recovery in corporate earnings has made Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies sound caution against the expensive valuation of the Indian equity market. Yet, he has increased exposure to Indian equities in his Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio by one percentage point. Wood had recently hiked allocation to Indian equities in October 2020 READ MORE

Aviation stocks gain after govt increases cap on number of domestic flights

Shares of aviation companies were flying high at the bourses on Friday, rallying up to 13 per cent on the BSE, after the government lifted cap on domestic flights to 80 per cent of pre-Covid levels. Following the news, SpiceJet soared 13 per cent to Rs 91.85 on the back of heavy volumes. A combined 16.7 million equity shares had changed hands on the counter on the NSE and BSE, till 09:50 am. READ MORE

MARKET COMMENT :: Bekxy Kuriakose, Head – Fixed Income, Principal Asset Management on RBI Policy

RBI kept key rates unchanged and stance as accommodative. MPC noted that inflation is expected to remain elevated and this prevented them from cutting key rates further. RBI Governor in his live appearance once again underscored the success of measures taken since the Pandemic broke out and reiterated that Bond market conditions have evolved in an orderly manner. He assured the market that the various measures being used for stabilizing yields like gilt purchases through OMOs, OT (Operation Twist) etc will continue. The key statement which seems relevant is when he repeated that "All instruments will be used at appropriate time while ensuring ample liquidity is available to the system". Thus we expect that soon some liquidity tightening measures may be introduced in form of term reverse repos of higher tenors or T bills or any other facility to impound liquidity. Currently the NET LAF is close to Rs 6 lakh crores and some of this liquidity may be withdrawn.
Post RBI statement, gilt yields have softened 3-7 bps as there was relief on reassurance of continuation of OMO measures.
We would be cautious of short term money market yields which pre policy had fallen to record lows even below the reverse repo rate. We expect that on introduction of liquidity tightening measures in coming days, yields mar rise in the upto 6 month segment by 10-25 bps.
Overall given the accommodative stance and RBI's continued focus for growth revival we would advise investors to keep a balanced asset allocation with core allocation to high quality short term debt category.

HDFC Bank, Maruti, DLF: Rate-sensitive stocks are preparing for more upside

State Bank of India (SBIN): After successfully breaching the 200-day moving average (DMA) at Rs 211, the stock is attempting to absorb the selling pressure emerging above Rs 250 levels. The overall trend is indicating a rally in the direction of Rs 273, which is its 200-weekly moving average (WMA). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has conquered the zero line upward. This shows that the upside momentum is pushing the stock price to higher levels. The closing basis support stays at Rs 240 levels. READ MORE 

Rate-sensitive stocks trade firm after RBI keeps repo rate unchanged

Shares of interest rate sensitive sectors, mainly financials and automobiles, were trading firm on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Friday after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India decided to keep repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent while maintaining the 'accommodative' stance. The reverse repo rate stays at 3.35 per cent. The RBI last changed policy rate on May 22. It maintained the status quo on the benchmark lending rates in view of persistently high inflation and a lower-than-expected contraction of the economy. READ MORE

MARKET COMMENT :: Dr. Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist, vice-president, Nomura

The RBI resisted blinking despite the high inflation glare. There were two insecurities that the market had in the run-up the policy meeting – one, whether the higher-than-expected inflation and growth data would trigger a rethink on the existing ‘lower-for-longer’ guidance on policy rates; and two, whether the RBI would look to temper the surge in liquidity to re-align money market rates with the policy corridor. On both, the RBI has essentially doubled down on its October accommodative guidance and asserted that inflation remains largely supply side driven and that supporting growth remains its paramount priority. Our baseline projection is that the RBI will continue keeping policy rates on hold in the near future

COMMENT :: Dr. Joseph Thomas, Head of Research, Emkay Wealth Management

That all the liquidity measures initiated earlier will continue to be in force, is a consolation, especially in a high inflation scenario. The growth projections too mirror the gradually improving ground conditions, with the overall growth for this year put at -7.50 %, with mildly positive growth for Q3 and Q4. The features and contents of the policy gives the reassurance that lower rates and the plenty in liquidity will continue for a longer time period, till the time inflation rises so much as to derail it.  The policy is supportive of both equity and fixed income markets, with its moderating implications for rates

MARKET UPDATE:: ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank among top contributors to Sensex's gain today

MARKET COMMENT :: Ashish Shanker, Deputy MD and Head of Investment at Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Mgmt

“RBI policy was on expected lines. They have prioritised growth over inflation. This is an acknowledgment that inflation drivers seem to be more supply side led. An accommodative liquidity stance will ensure access to liquidity will not be a challenge and the ongoing recovery continues to gather steam. This will help push through govt borrowings in a year where the revenues are under pressure. Guidance is better than earlier on growth and flows. Positive for markets.”

BSE Auto index surges 1%

MARKET COMMENT :: VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist, Geojit Financial Services

Status quo in policy rates and policy stance are on expected lines. The central bank has reiterated that it will use appropriate policy instruments to ensure ample liquidity to support growth. 
The revision of FY 21 GDP growth rate to -7.5 percent is positive. RBI's projection of GDP growth to be positive for H2 is in line with market's  optimism. 
Emphasising the multi-speed upturn in economy, the central bank has announced the extension of on tap TLTRO to stressed sectors. There is no market moving announcement in the policy, but the overall tone is positive

Nifty Bank index up 1.5%



NEWS ALERT :: RTGS to soon be made a 24x7 facility in the next few days

Alert: This messure was announced during the October meeting 

NEWS ALERT :: RBI to put in place scale-based regulatory approach for NBFCs

>> Large NBFCs will be subject to stricter regulations.

MARKET COMMENT :: Anuj Puri, chairman, ANAROCK Property Consultants

As was expected, the RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged. The threat of inflation looms large - it currently hovers above 7% - and the apex bank is tasked with reining it in while simultaneously fostering the green shoots of resuming consumption. On the positive side, an unchanged repo rate will ensure that home loan interest rates will not harden anytime soon. It is quite clear that increasing interest rates would impact overall demand at a time when the government is keen to boost consumption. 
However, there is no denying that consumer inflation is at the upper end of the apex bank’s band, and the policy repo rate has already been substantially reduced by 140 basis points in 2020. 
It goes without saying that the real estate industry's perennial hope is fixed on lower interest rates. This would be enabled by reducing the repo rate - a least in theory, given that transmission of reduced repo rates to bank interest rates has been slow at best. With real estate demand gradually returning, especially in the wake of developers’ discounts and freebies and reduced stamp duty charges (in Maharashtra), reduced repo rates would have given an added boost to the ongoing festive season.

Anuj Puri



NEWS ALERT :: Real GDP growth for FY21 is projected at -7.5%

>> Q3FY21 GDP is seen at +0.1%

>> Q4FY21 GDP is seen at +0.7%

NEWS ALERT :: CPI Inflation is projected at 6.8% at Q3FY21

>> Inflation seen at 5.8% in Q4FY21 and and 5.2-4.6% in H1FY22

NEWS ALERT :: RBI keeps rates unchanged; repo rate stays at 4%

Rates are as follows:

Sensex at day's high

Nifty Bank index up around a per cent ahead of RBI policy

UltraTech Cement surges 4%, hits record high on Rs 5,477 crore capex plan

Shares of UltraTech Cement surged 4 per cent to hit a fresh record high in the early morning trade on the BSE on Friday. The stock crossed Rs 5,000 mark to scale the peak of Rs 5,104 after the company said its board has approved increasing the firm's capacity by 12.8 mtpa (MT), with a mix of brown field and green field expansion at a capex of Rs 5,477 crore. The company surpassed its previous high of Rs 4,998, touched on December 2, 2020. READ MORE 

Nifty stocks in uptrend but technicals point to a pause in the rally

A whopping 98% of stocks in India’s NSE Nifty 50 Index were trading above their 200-day moving average this week, a level used by technical analysts to determine whether a stock is in an uptrend. The last time India posted such an extreme reading was in July 2014, which was followed by a correction in September that lasted longer than a month. READ MORE

Most active stocks by volume

ADANI POWER 61.35 13.30
VODAFONE IDEA 9.93 -0.10
H D F C 2255.80 0.08
SOUTH IND.BANK 9.44 2.50
SPICEJET 88.30 8.54
» More on Most Active Volume

ALERT :: Sensex gains momentum

Granules India up 1.5%

Tata Power hits 52-week high

Vedanta trades in the green

NCC jumps over 6% after Jhunjhunwala family increases stake

SpiceJet zooms 10%

>> Govt increases domestic flight capacity limit to 80%

>> Airline to start Mumbai-Heathrow flight today

Vodafone down 0.5%

Bharti Airtel advances 2% on Sept telecom data

>> Bharti Airtel was the biggest gainer in terms of users in September with 3.8 million subscriber additions

SBI Cards gains over 1.5%

HDFC Bank up half a per cent

>> Shares of HDFC Bank are expected to remain in focus in today's session, a day after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) directed the lender to temporarily halt all its digital launches as well as new sourcing of credit card customers, following various outages the bank faced due to technical glitches in the past two years. The stock eventually ended at Rs 1,377, down over 2 per cent.

HDFC Bank up half a per cent

>> Shares of HDFC Bank are expected to remain in focus in today's session, a day after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) directed the lender to temporarily halt all its digital launches as well as new sourcing of credit card customers, following various outages the bank faced due to technical glitches in the past two years. The stock eventually ended at Rs 1,377, down over 2 per cent.

Sectoral trends at Open

Sensex Heatmap at Open

First Trade

First Trade


CMP: Rs 1,442 | TP: Rs 1,550 (+7%) | Reco: Neutral

>> Since Jul’19, after the disruption pertaining to the ownership change, MTCL has been taking steps toward achieving stability in its client and employee count.

>> Persistent weakness in the Top 2-10 client bucket (-3.5% QoQ, eight-quarter CQGR of -2%) remains a concern given its 20% contribution to the topline. High exposure to Travel, Transport, and Hospitality is also expected to remain a drag on overall recovery.

>> The stock is currently trading at 21x FY22E EPS. We believe the key positives are already captured and see limited upside hereafter. Our TP implies 22x FY22 EPS. Maintain Neutral


CMP: Rs 1,377 | TP: Rs 1,500 (+9%) | Reco: Buy

HDFCB indicated that the RBI order will not have an impact on its existing credit cards business and operations of the bank. However, this order could likely delay the launch of digital auto loan financing portal, which the management has guided for during 2QFY21. The timeline of lifting these orders would be a key monitorable and we remain watchful on future developments in this regard. At the current juncture, we do not see any meaningful risk to our estimates and continue to maintain our BUY rating with a TP of INR1,500/share (3.3x Sep’22E ABV

BROKERAGE VIEW :: MOFSL on UltraTech Cement

CMP: Rs 4,892 | TP: Rs 5,760 (+18%) | Reco: Buy

UltraTech (UTCEM)’s announcement today of organic expansion of 19.5mtpa (19%) by FY23 is positive on multiple counts – 1) it provides visibility on aboveindustry volumes at a 10% CAGR over FY21–24E, 2) it is incrementally positive for ROCE as expansion is at a cost of only ~USD55/t, implying ROCE of ~14% (v/s 10% currently), and 3) it addresses capital allocation concerns as cash flows over the next two years are deployed in the core business. Despite the expansion, we estimate UTCEM to turn net cash by 1HFY23. Reiterate Buy and the top-pick status in the Cement sector.

Commodity Heatmap

Top gainers and losers on the S&P BSE Sensex at Pre-open

Markets at Pre-open

Markets at Pre-open

Stocks to watch

Aviation stocks: The cap on the number of domestic flights that Indian airlines are permitted to operate was increased from 70 per cent to 80 per cent of their pre-Covid levels on Thursday, said Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.
Tata Power: According to a news report by Mint, Tata Power has emerged as the winner in bids for two electricity distribution companies in Odisha.
Granules India: The company on Thursay said that the USFDA has approved the ANDA filed by Granules Pharmaceuticals, Inc (GPI)., a wholly-owned foreign subsidiary of Granules India Limited, for Penicillamine Capsules USP, 250 mg. It is bioequivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD), Cuprimine of Bausch Health Americas, Inc. READ MORE 

Currency Outlook :: Reliance Securities

>> The Indian Rupee could start this Friday on a slightly stronger note against the US Dollar, supported by continued weakness of the greenback.

>> The Rupee could likely open around 73.75-73.80 per dollar compared with 73.90 at close on Thursday.

>> Technically, the USDINR Spot pair has given breakout above 50-Daily Moving Average at 73.85 level indicating a positive momentum up to 74.03-74.20 levels.

>> Support is at 73.5073.60 levels. Resistance is at 74.05-74.15 levels.

Edelweiss Securities expect RBI to hold rates

>> We expect the RBI to maintain the status quo on rates as it awaits a more sizeable and durable fall in headline inflation.

>> We do expect inflation to ease towards 5% or below over the next few months, and this should facilitate 25–50bps of rate cuts.

RBI Monetary Policy :: What to expect?

>> RBI is most likely to opt for a status quo. easing. We expect 25-50bps of rate cuts in 1HCY21 as inflation eases.
>> We expect RBI MPC members might put forth the CPI projections for the rest of FY21.
What will markets track? 
>> From this upcoming policy, markets would be keenly observing RBI’s assessment/projections for the FY21 GDP growth.

(Source: Centrum Broking)

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RBI Monetary Policy :: What to expect?

The six-member Monetary Policy Committee is forecast to hold the benchmark repurchase rate at 4% Friday, according to all 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg as of Thursday afternoon. A spike in consumer prices forced the panel to pause after cutting rates by 115 basis points this year, although it’s expected to conserve some ammunition to support growth by retaining an accommodative stance for the near future. READ MORE

RBI Policy Announcement at 10 am today

Bulk deals on BSE as on Thursday

Bulk deals on NSE as on Thursday

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI

Rupee check

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rise as producers agree on supply compromise

>> Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for a fifth week of gains, after major producers agreed to continue to restrain production to cope with coronavirus-hit demand but the compromise fell short of expectations.

>> Brent was up 19 cents, or 0.4%, at $48.89 a barrel in early deals after gaining around 1% on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate had risen 18 cents, or 0.4% at $45.82 a barrel.

(Source: Reuters)

SGX Nifty update

>> At 8:28 am, the index was at 13,243.5 levels, up 40.5 points.

Asian markets check

Source: Reuters

US market check

Source: Reuters

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