After starting on a promising note, the benchmark indices slipped into the negative territory and ended with around a per cent loss on Wednesday as worries over economic downturn due to the extension of the nationwide lockdown weighed on the investor sentiment. Additionally, IMF's statement on Tuesday that the global economy faces the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s due to the raging coronavirus pandemic also dented the investor confidence.
The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 310 points or 1 per cent to settle at 30,380 levels. The index hit a high of 31,568.36 levels during the day.
HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries (RIL), HDFC, and Bajaj Finance contributed the most to the index's fall. On the contrary, FMCG bellwether Hindustan Unilever (HUL) ended as the top gainer - up 6 per cent.
On the NSE, the frontline index Nifty shed 68.55 points or 0.76 per cent to 8,925.30 levels. India VIX, the volatility index, fell around 4 per cent to 49.4025 levels.
Sectorally, Nifty Bank declined over 2 per cent to 19,057 levels while Nifty Financial Services index dropped 2.75 per cent to 9,239 levels.
On the other hand, Nifty Realty index gained nearly 2 per cent to 180 levels.
Among individual stocks, Bharti Airtel became the fifth most valuable listed company in terms of market capitalisation (m-cap) after the stock surged 16 per cent in the past three days on expectation of good Q4 earnings. The telecom service provider has surpassed mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC). The stock ended 0.29 per cent lower at Rs 510 apiece. READ MORE
Shares of Metropolis Healthcare slumped as much as 14 per cent to Rs 1,152 on the BSE on Wednesday after more than 13 per cent of the company's equity changed hands via block deals in early morning trade. The stick closed at Rs 1,258.95, down over 6 per cent. READ MORE
Shares of Motherson Sumi Systems (MSS) advanced 15 per cent to Rs 72.60 on the BSE on Wednesday after the company’s board gave in-principle approval to raise Rs 1,000 crore to enhance liquidity during the uncertain times of coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19). READ MORE
Global share markets dipped into the red on Wednesday as warnings of the worst global recession since the 1930s underlined the economic damage done during the coronavirus panemdic even as some countries try to re-open for business.
MSCI’s All-Country World Index, which tracks shares across 49 countries, was 0.37 per cent down.
European stock markets opened lower, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index opening 0.8 per cent lower after five previous days of gains.
In the United States, E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 fell 0.5 per cent, following a 3 per cent rise in New York.
In commodity market, oil fell 4 per cent towards $28 a barrel on Wednesday, pressured by reports of persistent oversupply and collapsing demand due to global coronavirus-related lockdowns and a lack of coordinated oil purchases for strategic storage.
Brent crude fell $1.19, or 4 per cent, to $28.41 a barrel till the time of writing of this report, giving up earlier gains. US West Texas Intermediate crude slid 45 cents, or 2.2 per cent, to $19.66.
(With inputs from Reuters)
SECTOR WATCH | Here's how sectoral indices on NSE performed today
MARKET AT CLOSE | Top losers and gainers on the S&P BSE Sensex
The S&P BSE Sensex lost 310 points or 1 per cent to 30,380 levels while Nifty ended at 8,925 levels, down 68.55 points or 0.76 per cent.
Covid-19 crisis: PM, FM to finalise details of second stimulus package soon
The stimulus package is expected anytime this week and will be aimed at the urban and rural poor; disadvantaged sections of society; micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs); and some of the worst-affected sectors.
Late last month, Sitharaman had announced a Rs 1.7 trillion stimulus package, which included measures like free foodgrain and direct cash transfers for targeted beneficiaries, and an increase in wages under the employment guarantee programme. READ MORE
MARKET UPDATE | As many as 349 stocks were locked in upper circuit on the BSE
-- The list includes names such as PVR, Info Edge India, Aavas Financials, HEG, Venky's India, Wockhardt, Graphite India and Heritage Foods
Emkay Global's top bets in Engineering & Capital Goods sector
■ L&T: Despite worrying near-term outlook, we believe that the long-term outlook for L&T remains promising on strong balance sheet and technical competence across segments; past track record suggests that L&T often gains market share in a difficult macro environment as weaker players collapse.
■ Cummins India: We are structurally positive on domestic Powergen and Industrial segments, backed by the underpenetrated power back-up market, demand visibility from metro projects, airports and data centers.
■ KNR Constructions and PNC Infratech: KNR and PNC are among the few construction companies that have maintained an asset-light approach and yet a focused strategy to bid for projects in their geographical focus areas, thereby generating consistent OCF/FCF.
One thing I have found to be generally true, over decades: If the Hindustan Lever stock is doing well, it means that the Indian stock market & economy are totally SCREWED
Top long-term trends in agriculture sector: (1) larger companies likely to gain market share from smaller players; (2) acceleration in mechanisation and higher usage of products that reduce dependence on labour; (3) lower consumption of meat products in India as well as lower exports of shrimp (organised players like Godrej Agrovet to gain market share); (4) farming of essentials (foodgrains) remains largely unaffected while perishables (horticulture) and non-essentials (cotton and jute) are negatively impacted; (5) opening-up of opportunity to export agrochemicals and gain market in the global agrochemical market; and (6) increase in costs due to additional safety measures (masks, hand gloves, sanitisers etc) for labour.
Beneficiaries: Kaveri, Godrej Agrovet
Potentially negatively impacted companies: Avanti
HDFC Securities on FMCG sector
The impact from Covid-19 on the FMCG sector will be sharper on revenues for cos in 4Q, despite many essential categories have witnessed pre-buying at offtake level in Mar. Lockdown has impacted transportations and channel filling opportunities for the quarter. Trade inventory has reduced for most categories. Lockdown of the last 12 days will impact revenues by 13-15% for the qtr for most cos. Channel filling benefits will add to FY21 revenues (~3%).
COMMENT :: CARE Ratings on WPI numbers
Food prices may remain high in April with supply shortages and stocking activities by the households during the lockdown period and are expected to remain at elevated levels during summer season. Future trajectory will be based on return of normalcy in the economic activities and arrival of monsoon.
China's Wuhan to fully resume rail, flight and freight ops by end-April: reports Reuters
The vice mayor of Wuhan, epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak in China, said on Wednesday the city aimed to fully resume rail, flight and freight operations by the end of April after a more than two-month lockdown was lifted earlier this month.
BROKERAGE VIEW:: ICICI Securities on Motherson Sumi
Going forward, over FY20-22E, we expect sales, EBITDA, PAT CAGR of 4.6%, 13.2% & 21.3%, respectively. We value MSSL at Rs 68 i.e. 12x P/E on FY22 EPS of Rs 5.7. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock. We retain preference for domestic-facing businesses amid ongoing tough business conditions globally and remain cautious on MSSL courtesy the complexity of business operations in terms of geographical spread and forex risk.
Germany plunges into recession; virus-induced slump may last until mid-year
Europe's economic powerhouse Germany plunged into recession in March, with the slump sparked by the coronavirus pandemic likely to last until the middle of the year, the economy ministry said Wednesday. "Falling global demand, interruption of supply chains, changes in consumers' behaviour and uncertainty among investors" had all made themselves felt in the export giant, the ministry said. READ MORE
TCS Q4 preview: Covid-19 pandemic to hit most verticals; deal ramp up key
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is scheduled to release its financial results for the March quarter of the fiscal year 2019-20 (Q4FY20) on Thursday. Analysts see some erosion in the company's revenue due to the nationwide lockdown that kickstarted in March. Further, owing to Covid-19 impact, which has led to a steep negative impact on the macroeconomy, they expect headwinds in most of its verticals. READ MORE
European indices slip in early trade
SECTOR WATCH : FMCG stocks hold gains in a weak market
Heatmap: S&P BSE Sensex gainers and losers at this hour
Rupee closes 17 paise lower at an all-time low of 76.45 against US dollar vs Monday's close of 76.27
Nifty Bank index leading the losses, down 1,000 points from day's high
MARKET CHECK :: Sensex down 1,000 pts from day's high
Strong outlook, attractive valuations driving Glenmark's bounce back
Glenmark stock's under performance to other peers till March had been attributed to high debt. Analysts at CLSA had said that the worst returns have been from leveraged companies like Aurobindo and Glenmark. However, post steep correction, the valuations had become very attractive and domestic growth remains on a strong footing. Domestic sales in December quarter (Q3) were up by 18 per cent year-on-year propelled by launch of a diabetes product, as compared to 13-15 per cent during the first two quarters of FY20. Analysts anticipate the company’s domestic sales growth in March quarter to be ahead of Indian Pharma market growth. READ MORE
BROKERAGE VIEW:: ICICI Securities on ZEE Entertainment
Although the investment in SugarBox pushes Zee’s digital reach, we believe it is ill-timed considering it is not in the company’s core operations and given the already existing cash flow woes. Also, the break-even period is longer. Hence, we remain cautious on the SugarBox investment by Zee Entertainment. Zee’s inventory and related party receivables remain high. We maintain HOLD with a target price of Rs 150, valuing it at 8x FY22E P/E.
Gold, equities show unusual sync in March; nosedive, recover at same times
Gold and global equities don’t usually move in tandem, but these are not usual times. The two assets — one a traditional haven and the other a classic risk-on bet — had an inverse correlation for most of last year, but as investors navigate the fallout from the coronavirus, they’ve started to move more in sync. READ MORE
Bharti Airtel surpasses HDFC to become 5th most valuable listed company
Bharti Airtel on Wednesday became the fifth most valuable listed company in terms of market capitalisation (m-cap) after the stock surged 16 per cent during the past three days on expectation of good Q4 earnings. The telecom service provider has surpassed mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC). READ MORE
NEWS ALERT :: Monsoon to hit Kerala on June 1: IMD
NEWS ALERT :: El nino not to impact monsoon: IMD
>> Current prediction for June-Sept period
>> Next update during last week of May
Fertiliser stocks gain as IMD says India to have normal monsoon
NEWS ALERT :: India to have normal southeast monsoon this year: IMD
Cement, paint, pipes: Will construction relaxation aid these sectors?
Even as India prepares for an extended lockdown to fight the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, construction and allied sector stares at a long and a dull period. In doldrums since early 2018, country’s building-material segment could see further compression with the real estate, its key demand driver, taking longer-than-expected to get its momentum back, analysts say. READ MORE
NEWS ALERT | Tata Communications' board approves raising up to Rs 650 cr via NCDs
Covid-19: What govt's partial lifting of restrictions may mean for economy
While agriculture can be justified, allowing other activity like construction in rural areas or IT related activity along with certain conditions being imposed can be interpreted as an experiment to see how it plays out. The spread of the virus is still quite prodigious in our country and one can still not be sure if the number of new cases has peaked out or whether it is going to be higher. This being the case, any relaxation has to be calibrated, which is the approach taken. Given the data on the spread of the pandemic it does appear that the higher cases have emanated in states and districts where there have been more testing which can also mean that regions with nil cases could be because of the absence of testing. Therefore, it needs to be seen how this works out. READ MORE
Muthoot Finance slips 7% as Moody's downgrades outlook to 'negative'
Shares of Muthoot Finance slipped 7 per cent to Rs 692 on the BSE in an otherwise firm market on Wednesday after global rating agency Moody’s downgraded the gold finance company's outlook to 'negative' from 'stable'. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 2.2 per cent at 31,369 at 12:00 pm. “Moody's Investor Service has affirmed Muthoot Finance's 'Ba2' Corporate Family Rating and its outlook changed to negative from stable,” the agency said in a rating action on Monday. READ MORE
EXPERT COMMENT :: Binod Modi, senior research analyst at Reliance Sec
While opening up of various industries from April 20 bodes well at current scenario to kickstart economic activities, demand is going to be a concern. Infrastructure, cement, agro, automobile stocks gained momentum today but the rally could be short lived if the government does not come up with fiscal relief packages. Market is hopeful about stimulus package from governments’ side in the next few days.
Road construction relaxation not enough to buy related stocks, say analysts
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the extension of the nationwide lockdown till May 3 to stem the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, the halt in construction of national highways had entered an uncertain territory. Most analysts now find it hard to chalk-out a timeline for normalisation of operations, thus making them pessimistic on the near-term outlook for road developers. While the government has allowed construction of roads, availability of labour could still be an issue, analysts say. READ MORE
MARKET UPDATE:: Nifty holds 9,200
Agri-related stocks in focus; UPL, RCF, Escorts rally up to 17%
Shares of agri-related companies rallied up to 17 per cent on the BSE on Wednesday after the government, in its detailed guidelines, allowed activities like agricultural, horticultural, farming, procurement of agri products and 'mandis' after April 20. The agrochemicals and fertilsers companies like UPL, Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers (RCF), Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals and tractor manufacturer Escorts were up between 10 per cent and 17 per cent on the BSE. READ MORE
Covid-19 lockdown to hit consumer durable firms; FY21 earnings estimate cut
The current situation, analysts say, is unlike the past disruptions such as Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and demonetisation, with the present set of challenges being multi-fold and enduring.
Analysts at Edelweiss Securities, for instance, say the past two events had hit the industry when the fundamentals (discretionary demand, infra momentum) were sound, and hence, the recovery was swift. “However, Covid-19 challenges are different as the economy is struggling with a much deeper and broad-based discretionary demand slowdown, supply-chain consolidation, and weaker new construction cycle,” the brokerage observed. READ MORE
Realty, capital goods stocks gain; Indiabulls, Oberoi ReaIty rise 5%
Shares of real estate companies, capital goods players and select industrial stocks rose after the government unveiled revised set of guidelines on the nationwide lockdown to arrest the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) impact. It must be noted that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tuesday announced the extension of lockdown until May 3. READ MORE
STOCK UPDATE:: HUL, GSK Consumer up 5% ahead of ex-date for amalgamation on Thursday, April 16
Cash levels jump to highest since 9/11 terrorist attacks: BoFA survey
Stocks may be recovering from their March lows, but investor pessimism over the pandemic’s economic damage is at “extreme” levels with cash positions the highest since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, according to a Bank of America survey.
Fund managers have shunned risk, with equity allocations the lowest since the 2009 financial crisis, the poll conducted between April 1 and April 7 shows. Cash levels surged to 5.9 per cent from 5.1 per cent in March, signalling peak pessimism to BofA strategists. READ MORE
L&T gains for sixth straight day, up 12% in 2 days on multiple order wins
Shares of Larsen & Toubro rose as much as 5.27 per cent to Rs 911.35 on the BSE on Wednesday after the company's Heavy Civil Infrastructure business secured two contracts from the National Capital Region Transport Corporation (NCRTC) in Uttar Pradesh to build Regional Rapid Transit System (RRTS) Infrastructure. READ MORE
Motherson Sumi up 15% on in-principle nod for fund raising; biz update
"The company is well-positioned on liquidity, with an 11-quarter low debt and adequate liquidity as well as a focus on generating further cash. It expects the current crisis to introduce M&A opportunities, and key customers are already pointing it in the direction of certain troubled companies," it said in a business update on Covid-19 impact. READ MORE
Gold outlook by Hareesh V, Head Commodity reseach at Geojit Financial Services
Gold’s bullish outlook is likely to continue due to fears of a possible global recession and large scale quantitative easing programs taken by various central banks. Investors will continue to seek shelter in safe assets like gold to protect from the negative economic impact of coronavirus pandemic. Conversely, limited physical market activities and a strong dollar may put downside pressure on prices.
Technical Outlook (London spot): Bullish sentiments will continue as long as prices stay above $1702. Immediate resistance is seen at $1746, and a direct break above the same would take prices higher to $1758 followed by $1800 levels. Immediate downside turnaround point is seen at $1672
BROKERAGE VIEW:: Prabhudas Lilladher on Aviation industry
We are cutting FY21 and FY22 EBITDAR estimates of our coverage universe by 14.2% to 65.8% as travel curbs imposed globally on account of Covid-19 pandemic are likely to have far reaching impact on air travel. We expect demand for air travel to remain suppressed in FY21 due to 1) staggered removal of restrictions and 2) low consumer confidence. With air traffic demand unlikely to match pre-Covid levels in the near term, in quest for survival we expect airlines to rationalize their fleet size /costs by 1) seeking early return of aircrafts 2) deferring deliveries of new aircrafts 3) renegotiation lease rentals on existing aircrafts and 4) workforce rationalization. Globally some Governments have announced measures aimed specifically at the aviation sector in the form of 1) grants to support employee expenses 2) loans and loan guarantees and 3) infusion of equity. However, given the limited resources at the disposal of the Indian Government it is likely that the relief package shall consist of 1) waivers/deferment of airport related charges 2) extended credit period for dues to OMCs and 3) moratorium on liabilities.
Construction sector outlook by Edelweiss Securities
The COVID-19 crisis has hit EPC stocks badly, which have plunged 30-50% over the past two months. We believe near-term outlook for the sector is cloudy and hence tone down assumptions for order intake, revenues, margins and traffic growth. We also assume working capital cycle build-up, cut earnings multiples and use higher discount rates; our FY21E earnings have been revised down 35-70%. We prefer KNR Constructions (BUY) and Ahluwalia Contracts (BUY) which have smaller scale of operations and healthy balance sheets. We upgrade NBCC to ‘HOLD’ from ‘REDUCE’ and downgrade Texmaco Rail to ‘HOLD’ from ‘BUY’, largely due to valuation being attractive and expensive, respectively.
BROKERAGE RADAR | Edelweiss Securities on Engineering & Capital Goods
The COVID-19 has dislocated humans and industry alike. The consequent lockdown has stalled execution. Since Q4 is an execution-heavy quarter, the lockdown has affected execution and deliveries for most companies under our coverage. All in all, we expect top-line growth to be merely 1% YoY (ex-Bharat Electronics 1% YoY decline) in Q4FY20—the slowest growth in five years. Indeed, companies stand to gain from lower commodity prices, but negative operating leverage is bound to kick in and dwarf such gains. Hence, we expect EBITDA margin to dip 50bps YoY. While diversified companies, particularly L&T, have managed to bag orders, most other companies are likely to suffer double-digit contraction in new orders. Vendor/sub-contractor support and weak infra payment cycles would hurt working capital and, hence, cash flows in the near term. We prefer companies that have continually tweaked business models and ensured sustainability and long-term scalability in spite of disruption. L&T, Siemens, BEL, and BHFC remain our top picks.
India VIX continues to drop, falls below 50-mark
SHARP SURGE:: IndusInd Bank up 7%
REVISED GUIDELINES ON COVID-19 LOCKDOWN MEASURES
-- Permitted activities from April 20 aimed at ensuring agri activities are functional.
-- Rural economy functions with maximum efficiency.
-- Employment opportunities are created for daily wage earners
-- Select industrial activities are allowed to resume their operations
-- Select industrial activities can resume operations with adequate safeguards
NEWS ALERT | Govt issues revised guidelines on what will remain shut & what will restart from April 20
Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) issues consolidated revised guidelines on the measures to be taken by Ministries/Departments of Govt of India, State/UT governments & State/UT authorities for the containment of #COVID19 in India. (1/2)#CoronavirusLockdown extended till 3 May 2020 pic.twitter.com/Tv9hkvfix8
Metropolis Healthcare share price falls 14% after block deals
Shares of Metropolis Healthcare slumped 14 per cent to Rs 1,152 on the BSE on Wednesday after more than 13 per cent of the company's equity changed hands via block deals in early morning trade. At 09:15 am, around 6.76 million shares, representing 13.5 per cent of the healthcare services company's total equity, changed hands on the BSE, the exchange data shows. The names of the buyers were not ascertained immediately. READ MORE
Termed as the mother of all IPOs, expectations were high from SBI Cards. Being the first IPO of a credit card company in India, investors were willing to overlook concerns, including its pricey valuation of 46x its FY20 estimated earnings. However, between the time of floating the issue and listing, market conditions started worsening, thus leading to the stock closing at Rs 683 on the BSE, below its IPO price of Rs 755, on listing day. The situation has worsened since then. READ MORE
MARKET UPDATE | Top 5 gainers on the BSE at this hour
BUZZING STOCK | Mishra Dhatu Nigam slips around 3.5%
JSW Steel up over 2%
Wipro trades 0.6% lower ahead of Q4 results
Sectoral trends at NSE during Opening Trade
Sensex Heatmap at Open
FIRST TRADE :: Nifty tests 9,150-mark in early trade
BLOCK DEAL | 13.45% equity of Metropolis changes hands; stock down over 12%
FIRST TRADE :: Sensex opens over 1.5% higher
Top gainers and losers at S&P BSE Sensex during Pre-Open
Market at Pre-Open
Market at Pre-Open
NEWS ALERT :: US halts funding to the World Health Organisation: Donald Trump
>> He said the US is halting funding of the World Health Organization while a review is conducted to assess WHO's role in mismanaging the Coronavirus outbreak.
Stocks to watch: Hindalco, Motherson Sumi, Wipro, Metropolis Healthcare
Wipro: Wipro is slated to announce its March quarter results (Q4FY20) later in the day. Most brokerages expect the company's revenue growth to come in at the lower end of the guided range of 0-2 per cent in the constant currency (CC) terms.
Info Edge: Gurugram-based food delivery platform Zomato and e-grocer Grofers on Tuesday refuted reports that they are in acquisition or merger talks after reports surfaced that Zomato may acquire Grofers for nearly $750 million. READ MORE
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE :: Total cases in India rise to 11,439: Govt
The extension of the lockdown, announced on Tuesday, has added fuel to fire, as regards SBI Cards and Payment Services (SBI Cards).
The stock has already taken a severe knock in less than a month, despite the Rs 10,350-crore initial public offering (IPO) attracting subscription of nearly Rs 2 trillion. READ MORE
RESULT TODAY :: Wipro to report Q4FY20 nos; Covid-19 impact on biz eyed
Among large-cap IT companies, Wipro is slated to announce its March quarter results (Q4FY20) on Wednesday, April 15. Most brokerages expect the company's revenue growth to come in at the lower end of the guided range of 0-2 per cent in the constant currency (CC) terms.
"Wipro’s US dollar revenue is expected to decline by 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) (+0.1 per cent CC) to $2,086 million led by weak Banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), Covid-19 impact (nearly two weeks) and fall in crude oil prices," note analysts at HDFC Securities in an earnings preview note. READ MORE
NEWS ALERT :: China cuts medium-term borrowing costs by 20 bps: Reuters
>> The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it was lowering the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to financial institutions to 2.95%, the lowest level since the liquidity tool was introduced in September 2014, down 20 basis point from 3.15% previously.
>> China’s central bank on Wednesday cut the interest rate on its medium-term funding for financial institutions to the lowest level on record.
>> The move should pave the way for a similar reduction to the country’s benchmark loan prime rate (LPR), which will be announced on the 20th, to lower financing costs for companies hit by pandemic.
FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI
Oil rises on bargain-hunting, hopes for stockpile purchases
>> Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors looked for bargains after the previous session’s slump and on hopes that consuming countries will look to fill their strategic reserves, although oversupply fears and warnings of a deep recession capped gains.
>> Brent futures were up 38 cents, or 1.3%, at $29.98 a barrel as of 0201 GMT, after falling 6.7% on Tuesday.
SGX Nifty indicates positive start for Indian markets
>> At 8:13 am, the index was at 9,207 level, up 5 points.
Asia shares given pause by scale of global economic damage
Wall Street jumps as hopes for easing lockdown offset earnings worry