MARKETS ON THURSDAY: Sensex, Nifty gain for 6th session; IT stocks lead

A share broker monitors market fluctuation
Benchmark indices ended higher on Thursday and extended their gains into a sixth session, driven by information technology stocks, although falls in banks and oil marketing companies capped the rise.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,101, up 161 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,459, up 42 points.

The Nifty IT index rose over 3% to its highest since February 2 and gaining for a third consecutive session of gains on a weakening rupee and expectations of positive quarterly results.

Investors now await March retail inflation data due after market hours on Thursday for cues about the economy. Retail inflation likely eased to a five-month low in March as increases in food prices slowed once again but remained above the central bank’s medium-term target, a Reuters poll found.

In the global markets, Asian stocks came under pressure on Thursday as the threat of imminent US military action in Syria rattled investors and sent oil prices to their highest levels since late 2014 on concerns about supply.

Trump declared that missiles “will be coming” in Syria, taunting Russia for supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a suspected chemical attack on rebels. Damascus and Moscow have denied any responsibility.

His comments raised the prospect of direct conflict over Syria for the first time between the two world powers backing opposing sides in the seven-year-old civil war, which has also escalated a rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

(with Reuters inputs)


Nifty IT index ends 3.21% higher. Top gainers:

HCL TECHNOLOGIES 1010.05 967.30 42.75 4.42
TCS 3139.25 3014.15 125.10 4.15
INFOSYS 1162.60 1124.25 38.35 3.41
TECH MAHINDRA 652.80 633.35 19.45 3.07
TATA ELXSI 1069.90 1042.60 27.30 2.62

Sectoral Trend

BSE Sensex: gainers and losers of the day

Market at close
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,101, up 161 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,459, up 42 points.
Buzzing Stock

National Aluminium Company is quoting at Rs 77.3, up 3.07% on the day as on the NSE. National Aluminium Company Ltd is up 6.62% in last one year as compared to a 13.99% gain in Nifty and a 24.4% gain in the Nifty Metal index.
After 1,400% gain in 2 years, rally in Venky's stock may pause for now
Over the past few years, this company has not only satiated the hunger of consumers of its products, but also investors who had an appetite for risk.
In the past two years, Venky’s (India) has jumped nearly 1,400 per cent from Rs 383 levels to Rs 4,500 levels now, ACE Equity data shows. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up 36 per cent during this period. In the last one year alone, the stock has gained an impressive 323 per cent.
The rally, analysts say, came on the back of strong earnings that led to a better perception among investors, aiding a re-rating. This rally, they now suggest, could be nearing an end for now. READ MORE
Indian banks need to improve risk management, governance practices: S&P
Global credit agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) said the Indian banks need to improve risk management and governance practices in the light of troubles faced by the two private lenders ICICI Bank and Axis Bank.
"As a number of banks in India confront serious governance and risk issues, the 'tone at the top' is crucial. Leadership groups in Indian banks need to ensure that they enhance the risk culture, reputation, and financial strength of banks," said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Michael Puli. READ MORE
Top BSE500 gainers

TATA SPONGE IRON 1199.60 1081.40 118.20 10.93
HATSUN AGROPROD. 750.00 700.00 50.00 7.14
TATA METALIKS 845.00 799.65 45.35 5.67
DISH TV 77.60 73.80 3.80 5.15
JBF INDS. 110.30 105.05 5.25 5.00

MARKET COMMENT Ridham Desai, head of India research and India equity strategist at Morgan Stanley

India's relative growth is likely to accelerate in the coming months. The recent RBI policy meeting has convinced the market that a rate hike is not around the corner. Therefore, we think that the relationship between India's short rate differential with the US and equity market performance relative to the world will likely be reestablished (falling relative rates = outperformance). The third factor is the collapse in India's beta to a 13-year low.

While fundamentally this means that India's prospective absolute returns have shrunk, if beta remains low and the world is in a low-return phase, India will likely outperform. Finally, FPI positioning, which has been falling for three years, is now at 2011 levels.

Ridham Desai

Dish TV India up 6% after promoters make open offer at Rs 74 per share

Dish TV India has moved higher by 6% to Rs 78.20 on the BSE in noon deal, after the promoters have made an open offer at price of Rs 74 per share.
“World Crest Advisors LLP together with Veena Investments Pvt Ltd and Direct Media Distribution Venture Pvt Ltd have made an open offer to acquire around 500 million equity shares, which represents about 26% of the emerging share capital of Dish TV at a price of Rs 74 per share aggregating to Rs 37 billion,” Dish TV said in a regulatory filing. READ MORE
Market Check

S&P BSE Sensex 34,114.42 0.51%
Nifty 50 10,461.30 0.42%
S&P BSE 200 4,593.64 0.29%
Nifty 500 9,254.55 0.26%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,619.99 -0.01%
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,992.38 0.05%

OMCs extend losses as crude oil soars on escalating Syria tensions

Share of oil marketing companies (OMCs) — Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) — extended losses, falling by six to eight per cent on Wednesday on concerns of a military escalation in Syria. HPCL, BPCL and IOC were down over 2.5% each on the BSE. READ MORE

MRF shares hit new high of Rs 78,234 per share

Shares of MRF hit a new high of Rs 78,234, up 2% on the BSE. The stock of tyre company gained 13% or Rs 9,045 from its recent low of Rs 69,189 on March 23, 2018. On comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 4.3% during the same period. So far in the calendar year 2018, MRF shares have beat the market by gaining 8% against 0.05% decline in the benchmark index. READ MORE

US Federal Reserve officials discuss 'slightly steeper' future rate hikes

US Federal Reserve officials signalled that the central bank may have to accelerate the pace of future rate hikes amid stronger economic growth and inflation, according to the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting. READ MORE
Market Check

S&P BSE Sensex 34,017.92 0.23%
Nifty 50 10,428.55 0.11%
S&P BSE 200 4,586.34 0.13%
Nifty 500 9,236.10 0.06%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,628.15 0.04%
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,998.41 0.08%

News Watch Delhi HC dismisses Monsanto plea to enforce BT cotton seed patent

The Delhi High Court on Wednesday dismissed the US-based agro major Monsanto Technology’s plea to enforce the patent for its BT cotton seeds in India.
A Bench of Justice S Ravindra Bhat and Justice Yogesh Khanna partially allowed the counter-claims of three Indian seed companies that Monsanto did not have a patent for its BT cotton seeds, a genetically modified variant that resists bollworms. READ MORE

Global oil demand not to peak soon, India vulnerable to high prices: IEA

International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that global oil demand will not peak in the near future and India's vulnerability to high prices will increase with surge in its crude oil imports.
Oil demand will continue to grow stronger this year, at about 1.5 million barrels per day, driven by petrochemicals and other sectors, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. READ MORE

Manipal's revised offer for Fortis falls short of Street's expectations

Private equity firm TPG backed-Manipal Hospitals has sweetened the offer to acquire the hospital business of Fortis Healthcare to address the valuation concerns of the latter’s shareholders, but it is still short of the Street’s expectations. READ MORE
IT stocks gain ahead of March quarter results; TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech up 3%

Shares of information technology (IT) companies were in focus and trading higher by up to 5% on the BSE ahead of financial results for the fourth quarter and the year ended 31 March 2018. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys and HCL Technologies from the large-cap IT stocks were up 3% to 4% on the BSE. NIIT Technologies, Datamatics Global Services, Zensar Technologies, Aptech, KPIT Technologies, Hexaware Technologies and Tata Elxsi from the mid and small-cap were up between 3% and 5% on the BSE. READ MORE

Bandhan Bank enters league of top-50 most valuable company

Bandhan Bank, the private sector lender, has entered the list of the top-50 most valuable companies in terms of market capitalization (m-cap) following a sharp surge in its stock price post listing.

Bandhan Bank, with an m-cap of Rs 640 billion, stood at 50th position in overall m-cap ranking on the BSE at 10:37 am, the exchange data shows. The bank climbed 5 positions in the m-cap pecking order since its debut on the bourses on March 27, 2018. READ MORE

Stocks at 52-week high

AARTI INDS. 1241.00 1243.65 21.45 1.76
IPCA LABS. 708.75 719.00 15.30 2.21
JUBILANT FOOD. 2508.80 2522.00 22.45 0.90
MRF 77594.95 77984.65 1127.35 1.47
TITAN COMPANY 986.90 989.90 6.95 0.71

MARKET COMMENT Stefan Koopman, Market Economist, Rabobank International

The minutes of the March 20-21 meeting of the FOMC, in which the target range for the federal funds rate was raised by 25 bps to 1.50-1.75%, didn’t show much new in terms of headlines. The minutes read that “a number of participants indicated that the stronger outlook for economic activity, along with their increased confidence that inflation would return to 2 percent over the medium term, implied that the appropriate path for the federal funds rate over the next few years would likely be slightly steeper than they had previously expected”. It makes for a juicy headline, but this slightly hawkish change of heart was already being reflected in the upward shift in the dot plot.
After touching 20-mth low in Feb, MFs see redemptions of Rs 500 bn in March

Mutual funds witnessed huge redemptions of over Rs 500 billion by investors in March on strong outflow from liquid and debt funds, according to industry body Amfi. Besides, MF schemes saw a net inflow of Rs 2.72 trillion in 2017-18, much lower than Rs 3.4 trillion seen in the previous financial year. READ MORE

INTERVIEW OF THE DAY Oil prices can hit $80 a barrel in a year: Paul Hickin of S&P Global Platts

Oil prices hit their highest in over three years on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump threatened to fire missiles at Syria in response to a suspected chemical attack last week. London – based PAUL HICKIN, associate director at S&P Global Platts shares his thoughts on the road ahead for the oil markets with Puneet Wadhwa on the sidelines of International Energy Forum (IEF).  READ MORE

Paul Hickin, Platts

VA Tech Wabag shares gain 4% on winning Rs 5,200 million Namami Gange order

Shares of VA Tech Wabag was up 4% to Rs 518 per share on the BSE in early morning trade after the company said that it has won orders worth of Rs 5,200 million under Namami Gange scheme (National Mission for Clean Ganga – NMCG) and repeat order from oil & gas sector. READ MORE
Phased physical settlement of stock derivatives mandatory, says Sebi

Markets regulator Sebi on Wednesday decided to make physical settlement of stock derivatives mandatory in a phased or calibrated manner, a move that could bring some much-needed balance between equity cash and derivative segments. The regulator has strengthened the existing entry criteria for introduction of stocks into the derivative segment in line with the increase in market capitalisation since the last revision of the criteria in 2012, Sebi said in circular. READ MORE

SGX to continue to offer trading in Indian derivatives despite NSE ban

The Singapore Exchange (SGX) will continue to offer trading in Indian derivatives even as its partner National Stock Exchange (NSE) has decided to terminate licensing agreements for providing indices and securities-related data feed services to the foreign counterpart.
The exchange said it would introduce proprietary Indian equity derivatives products in June 2018 and would simultaneously delist existing Nifty-based derivatives contracts. READ MORE

Market Check

S&P BSE Sensex 33,999.93 0.18%
Nifty 50 10,419.25 0.02%
S&P BSE 200 4,586.89 0.14%
Nifty 500 9,236.40 0.06%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,656.09 0.21%
S&P BSE Small-Cap 18,028.74 0.25%

Foreign funds with India link face uncertain future over Sebi's diktat

Several foreign funds face an uncertain future with the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (Sebi’s) order barring Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) from being the end-beneficiaries. According to sources, close to 150 foreign funds currently registered with Sebi are promoted by PIOs. They now face revocation of licences. READ MORE
Oil marketing companies extend losses

Volume Toppers

DISH TV 75.40 1.60 2.17 91651984
IDBI BANK 70.45 -1.65 -2.29 279689
NATL. ALUMINIUM 76.00 1.10 1.47 237607
JP ASSOCIATES 20.50 -0.40 -1.91 228021
I O C L 165.25 -2.55 -1.52 224552
Sectoral Trend

Top Sensex gainers and losers

Markets at open

At  9:15 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 33,954, up 14 points while the broader Nifty50 index was ruling at 10,398, down 18 points
Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 34,030.17 +89.73 +0.26
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,918.70 +26.26 +0.24
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,245.77 +42.02 +0.12
S&P BSE 100 10,848.61 +24.09 +0.22
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,561.85 +2.52 +0.07

(Source: BSE)
Corporate News 
·         Tata Motors group global wholesales up 18% (YoY) at 1.53 lakh units in March.
·         Biocon says Mylan partnered with Fujifilm Kyowa to commercialise Adalimumab biosimilar in Europe.
·         IEX signed pact with JEPX to jointly explore opportunities in electricity market.
·         Airtel partnered with Balaji Tele unit for digital content
·         GMR to set up defence manufacturing hub at Krishnagiri, Tamil Nadu.
·         RBI slaps penalty of Rs 3 crore on IDBI Bank for non-compliance of NPA norms.
·         Indian consortium of BPCL, IOC and HPCL signed MOU with Saudi Aramco to jointly develop and build refinery complex at Ratnagiri, Maharashtra

(Source: IIFL report)
MARKET COMMENT Amar Ambani, head of research, IIFL

Trade negotiations between the US and China can take a temporary backseat. Tensions are on the rise again and this time it’s a tweet from US President Donald Trump which threatens the possibility of a military strike in Syria. For US, the relations with Russia, which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, is turning out to be another geo-political concern.

Crude oil prices rocketed to four-year highs at around USD 71/barrel, amid political worries in the Middle East. The market could see some caution ahead of the earnings season. The main indices ended in the green for five days in a row powered by select IT, FMCG and Energy counters. Infosys numbers will be out tomorrow and the tech major will be in focus. US indices ended in the red. Asian shares are trading mixed. The outlook is for a negative start.
Sector Watch: FMCG

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to register 10/13% YoY revenue/EBITDA growth during 4QFY18 vs. 12/16%  YoY in 3QFY18  and 8/9% YoY in 4QFY17. Consumer offtake is gradually improving with normalising distribution channels  (post GST). Therefore, along with a favorable base (also in 1QFY19), FMCG  companies would be able to accelerate revenue growth.
Macro-economic factors are improving steadily and further gains are expected on account of govt’s focus on agricultural & rural incomes. Rural  used to grow 2.5-3% faster than Urban but the delta has now narrowed down to ~1.5%. Management commentary also suggests green shoots in the rural economy and a pickup in demand. International business is expected to recover due to improving consumer confidence  index for key geographies and favorable base (geo-political issues, unfavorable currencies). 

Outliers  : Jubilant FoodWorks, Britannia, Colgate,  HUL.  Our  top  picks  in FMCG: ITC, Jubilant FoodWorks and Marico

(Source: HDFC Securities)
Industrial production may grow at lower pace in February, economists say

After growing at more than 7 per cent for the third straight month up to January, industrial growth may slow down in February, experts say. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had risen by 7.5 per cent in January, up from the 7.1 per cent growth seen in December. This had led economists to predict that economic revival had gained ground as the effects of demonetisation and the goods and services tax (GST) finally dissipated. But the lack of a broad based growth as well as the possibility of a slower rise in non-oil, non-gold imports may restrict growth, they say. READ MORE

Upcoming Results / Board Meeting Date

Company Date of meeting
Infosys 13-04-18
IndusInd Bank 19-04-18
TCS 19-04-18
HDFC Bank 21-04-18
Bharti Infratel 23-04-18
HDFC Bank 23-04-18
Wipro 25-04-18
Axis Bank 26-04-18
Yes Bank 26-04-18
Axis Bank 27-04-18
HDFC 30-04-18
Kotak Mahindra Bank 30-04-18
ICICI Bank 07-05-18

Image source: Geojit Financial Services

Retail inflation expected to be five-month low as food prices drop: Poll

Indian retail inflation was expected to have eased to a five-month low in March as increases in food prices slowed once again but remained above the central bank's medium-term target, a Reuters poll found.
That, coupled with the latest data which showed Asia's third-largest economy beat China to regain top spot as the fastest growing major economy. That should give policymakers some relief as they seek to keep inflation under control without hurting growth. READ MORE

Oil markets tense on Syrian crisis, but US supplies keep prices in check

Oil markets remained tense on Thursday on concerns of a military escalation in Syria, but prices were some way off Wednesday's 2014 highs as bulging American supplies weighed. Brent crude futures were at $71.98 per barrel at 0016 GMT, down 8 cents from their last close READ MORE

Today's picks: Hindalco, GAIL

Current price: Rs 234
Target price: Rs 238
Keep a stop at Rs 232 and go long . Add to the position between Rs 236 and Rs 237. Book profits at Rs 238.
Current price: Rs 327 
Target price: Rs 321
Keep a stop at Rs 330 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 322 and Rs 323. Book profits at Rs 321. READ MORE

Nifty outlook by Tradebulls for today

Post breaking out from the ‘Inverse Head & Shoulder’ formation, Nifty witnessed a smart sustained up to move towards its price target placed near 10,420-10,440 zone. Though the index has not witnessed any meaningful reversal sign yet but the narrow ranged bodies off late are a concern indicating exhaustion of momentum. On the daily scale, the index witnessed another small body formation with a long wick which could be an early sign of developing weakness as intraday oscillators are showing divergence. Hence though there are no signs of any reversal or major weakness yet but its proximity towards the likely resistance zone due to the pattern price targets it could unfold some consolidation / minor weakness for the coming sessions. Expect index to gyrate within 10,440-10,300 before the next move commences. Traders should refrain from any major leveraging & deploy range bound strategies for the day. READ MORE
Top trading ideas from Prabhudas Lilladher: Buy United Spirits, Vedanta

CMP: Rs 3459.90
TARGET: Rs 3700
STOP LOSS: Rs 3320
The stock has given a good revival move from the bottom made at around Rs 2980 levels and currently has also given a breakout above the previous peak of Rs 3380 to signify potential and strength to rise further from here on in the coming days.
The favourable indicators like RSI is on the rise and as well as the MACD is showing a positive bias for further up move. With good consistent volume activity seen, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of Rs 3700 keeping a stop loss of Rs 3320. READ MORE

Markets on Wednesday

S&P BSE Sensex 33,940.44 0.18%
Nifty 50 10,417.15 0.14%
S&P BSE 200 4,580.37 0.08%
Nifty 500 9,230.85 0.13%
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,621.58 -0.19%
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,983.46 0.20%

SGX Nifty

The SGX Nifty was at 10,426, up 0.08 per cent from the previous close.
Asian Markets

Asian stocks came under pressure on Thursday as the threat of imminent US military action in Syria rattled investors and sent oil prices to their highest levels since late 2014 on concerns about supply.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.05 per cent in early trade while Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.4 per cent.
Wall Street

Wall Street stocks fell on Wednesday as possible US military action against Syria stoked investor concerns about geopolitical risk to the American economy and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee sparked worries about a more hawkish view on interest-rate increases.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 218.55 points, or 0.9 per cent, to 24,189.45, the S&P 500 lost 14.68 points, or 0.55 per cent, to 2,642.19 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 25.28 points, or 0.36 per cent, to 7,069.03.
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