MARKETS ON FRIDAY: Indices end higher but Nifty fails to hold 10,500-mark

Benchmark indices rose for a seventh straight session on Friday, their longest winning streak since November 2017, on the back of gains in index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank.

Sentiment was also upbeat after retail inflation eased to a five-month low in March, but remained above the central bank’s medium-term target, supporting views that monetary policy is likely to remain unchanged at the next review in early June.

Investors now await January-March corporate results for future direction. IT Major Infosys will kick-start the March-quarter results season later in the day.

Meanwhile, Global stocks recovered to three-week highs on Friday as anticipated strong earnings season took centre stage after US President Donald Trump backtracked on his suggestion of an imminent missile attack on Syria.

Trump said in a tweet on Thursday that a possible attack on Syria could occur "very soon or not so soon at all," easing fears of confrontation with Russia.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.1 per cent while Japan's Nikkei gained 0.8 per cent.

(with inputs from Reuters)

3:41 PM IST Nifty Metal index ends nearly 1% higher. Top gainers: COMPANY LATEST PREV CLOSE GAIN() GAIN(%) S A I L 76.70 74.00 2.70 3.65 JINDAL STEEL 251.80 243.75 8.05 3.30 WELSPUN CORP 153.00 148.55 4.45 3.00 MOIL 215.00 209.65 5.35 2.55 HINDALCO INDS. 238.50 232.60 5.90 2.54

3:36 PM IST Sectoral Trend

3:34 PM IST BSE Sensex: top gainers and losers of the day

3:32 PM IST Market at close   The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,193, up 92 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,481, up 22 points.

3:09 PM IST IDBI Bank: High NPAs, new bad loan rules seen offsetting inflows   IDBI Bank has joined the bandwagon of public sector banks (PSBs) rushing to sell their non-core assets to strengthen their balance sheet. Recently, the lender sold a commercial building for Rs 9 billion, taking the total non-core asset sales to over Rs 41 billion in FY18.   Also, the government provided Rs 106.1 billion recapitalisation amount, the highest among PSBs, to this cash-starved bank. But these efforts seem insufficient given the bank’s high net non-performing assets (NPAs) worth Rs 293.5 billion as of December 2017. READ MORE

3:02 PM IST Oil heads for biggest weekly gain since July Oil prices edged higher on Friday, heading for their largest weekly gain since July after U.S. President Trump's comments about possible military action in Syria and reports of dwindling global oil stocks. Brent crude rose by 44 cents to $72.46 a barrel at 0821 GMT, up about 8 percent on the week. READ MORE

2:42 PM IST BUZZING STOCK   KPIT Technologies  rose for a third straight session, quoting at Rs 230.5, up 1.86% on the day as on the NSE. KPIT Technologies is up 79.24% in last one year as compared to a 14.96% gain in Nifty and a 33.16% gain in the Nifty IT index.

2:28 PM IST Goldman expects sanctions to keep aluminium prices high, sees oil hitting $72 Aluminium prices are expected to remain high and volatile until June because of sanctions on Russia's Rusal, while tensions in the Middle East are likely to push oil prices to $72 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday. The bank reinforced its "overweight" view on commodities, with a forecast return of 10 percent over the next 12 months. READ MORE

2:16 PM IST ICEX launches 30 cents diamond futures contracts to attract small investors Reliance ADAG anchored Indian Commodity Exchange Limited (ICEX) has launched 30 cents polished diamond futures contracts on its platform to attract small investors and make natural precious stone popular amongst the average middle class. The exchange currently offers 1 carat (100 cents) and 50 cents polished diamond contracts on its platform where small investors need to wait to take delivery till their invested amount accumulates equivalent to the value of these stones. READ MORE Diamonds

2:09 PM IST TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO SENSEX TODAY COMPANY LATEST CHG(RS) CHG(%) WEIGHT IN INDEX (%) ADANI PORTS 381.85 9.80 2.63 0.97 TCS 3217.50 80.20 2.56 5.08 WIPRO 292.50 5.70 1.99 1.52 INFOSYS 1183.00 20.75 1.79 8.93 DR REDDY'S LABS 2084.40 25.60 1.24 1.56 RELIANCE INDS. 937.40 9.85 1.06 7.22 CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL LIST

2:01 PM IST Market Check   S&P BSE Sensex 34,235.14 0.39%   Nifty 50 10,488.85 0.29%   S&P BSE 200 4,607.73 0.33%   Nifty 500 9,273.00 0.28%   S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,674.17 0.44%   S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,991.92 0.32%

1:58 PM IST ICICI Securities on Bajaj Electricals (BEL) We believe BEL is a strong candidate for re-rating owing to the strong performance of the EPC division and recovery in sales of consumer durable  products with rising coverage of retailers across India. We believe BEL will record revenue, earning CAGR of ~19%, ~34%, respectively, in FY18E-20E supported by an increase in EBITDA margin. Under our SOTP based valuation, we value BEL’s CD segment MCap at 2x FY20E sales (~30% discount to peers) and E&P segment at 7x FY20E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our BUY rating with a revised target price of Rs 720/share.

LIVE UPDATES

Nifty Metal index ends nearly 1% higher. Top gainers:

COMPANY LATEST PREV CLOSE GAIN() GAIN(%)
S A I L 76.70 74.00 2.70 3.65
JINDAL STEEL 251.80 243.75 8.05 3.30
WELSPUN CORP 153.00 148.55 4.45 3.00
MOIL 215.00 209.65 5.35 2.55
HINDALCO INDS. 238.50 232.60 5.90 2.54

Sectoral Trend


BSE Sensex: top gainers and losers of the day


Market at close
 
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,193, up 92 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,481, up 22 points.
IDBI Bank: High NPAs, new bad loan rules seen offsetting inflows
 
IDBI Bank has joined the bandwagon of public sector banks (PSBs) rushing to sell their non-core assets to strengthen their balance sheet. Recently, the lender sold a commercial building for Rs 9 billion, taking the total non-core asset sales to over Rs 41 billion in FY18.
 
Also, the government provided Rs 106.1 billion recapitalisation amount, the highest among PSBs, to this cash-starved bank. But these efforts seem insufficient given the bank’s high net non-performing assets (NPAs) worth Rs 293.5 billion as of December 2017. READ MORE
Oil heads for biggest weekly gain since July

Oil prices edged higher on Friday, heading for their largest weekly gain since July after U.S. President Trump's comments about possible military action in Syria and reports of dwindling global oil stocks. Brent crude rose by 44 cents to $72.46 a barrel at 0821 GMT, up about 8 percent on the week. READ MORE
BUZZING STOCK
 
KPIT Technologies  rose for a third straight session, quoting at Rs 230.5, up 1.86% on the day as on the NSE. KPIT Technologies is up 79.24% in last one year as compared to a 14.96% gain in Nifty and a 33.16% gain in the Nifty IT index.
Goldman expects sanctions to keep aluminium prices high, sees oil hitting $72

Aluminium prices are expected to remain high and volatile until June because of sanctions on Russia's Rusal, while tensions in the Middle East are likely to push oil prices to $72 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday. The bank reinforced its "overweight" view on commodities, with a forecast return of 10 percent over the next 12 months. READ MORE

ICEX launches 30 cents diamond futures contracts to attract small investors

Reliance ADAG anchored Indian Commodity Exchange Limited (ICEX) has launched 30 cents polished diamond futures contracts on its platform to attract small investors and make natural precious stone popular amongst the average middle class. The exchange currently offers 1 carat (100 cents) and 50 cents polished diamond contracts on its platform where small investors need to wait to take delivery till their invested amount accumulates equivalent to the value of these stones. READ MORE
Diamonds

TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO SENSEX TODAY

COMPANY LATEST CHG(RS) CHG(%) WEIGHT IN
INDEX (%)
ADANI PORTS 381.85 9.80 2.63 0.97
TCS 3217.50 80.20 2.56 5.08
WIPRO 292.50 5.70 1.99 1.52
INFOSYS 1183.00 20.75 1.79 8.93
DR REDDY'S LABS 2084.40 25.60 1.24 1.56
RELIANCE INDS. 937.40 9.85 1.06 7.22


CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL LIST
Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,235.14 0.39%
 
Nifty 50 10,488.85 0.29%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,607.73 0.33%
 
Nifty 500 9,273.00 0.28%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,674.17 0.44%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,991.92 0.32%

ICICI Securities on Bajaj Electricals (BEL)

We believe BEL is a strong candidate for re-rating owing to the strong performance of the EPC division and recovery in sales of consumer durable  products with rising coverage of retailers across India. We believe BEL will record revenue, earning CAGR of ~19%, ~34%, respectively, in FY18E-20E supported by an increase in EBITDA margin.

Under our SOTP based valuation, we value BEL’s CD segment MCap at 2x FY20E sales (~30% discount to peers) and E&P segment at 7x FY20E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our BUY rating with a revised target price of Rs 720/share.
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd – BUY – TARGET PRICE Rs 390

Post 30% correction in the stock prices in the recent past, we believe lot of the concerns have already been priced in. Hence, we now upgrade our recommendation to BUY (earlier ACCUMULATE) on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.390/share (earlier Rs. 495/share). We believe at CMP, that the stock is attractively valued. We have valued CPCL based on lower PE multiple of 5.5x FY20 (target PE), which is at a significant discount to its peers considering complexity of its refinery.

(Source: Kotak Securities)
STOCK ALERT TCS nears all-time high; stock rallies 11% in four days

Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have moved 3.2% higher to Rs 3,238 per share, extending their 7.4% rally in past three trading days on the BSE. The information technology (IT) giant trading close to its all-time high of Rs 3,255, recorded on January 24, 2018 in intra-day trade. The company is scheduled to announce its earnings for the period of January-March 2018 (Q4FY18) and the financial year 2017-2018 (FY18) on Thursday, April 19, 2018 READ MORE
Etihad sends feelers to Anil Ambani to buy 76% stake in Air India
 
Gulf airline major Etihad is planning to bid for state-owned carrier Air India. Etihad is looking for partners in major Indian corporate groups and has sent feelers to Anil Ambani-owned Reliance group (ADAG).
 
Sources aware of the discussions said talks were at a preliminary stage. “Etihad is scouting for partners to form a consortium to bid for Air India and is in discussion with companies, including the Anil Ambani group,” a source said. There are chances that the talks may not translate into a partnership, but this indicates interest of foreign aviation firms and India Inc in the airline. READ MORE


Mishra Dhatu Nigam hits highest level since listing; stock surges 15%

Mishra Dhatu Nigam (MIDHANI) has surged 15% to Rs 107 on the BSE, on back of heavy volumes. The stock was trading at its highest level since listing on April 4, 2018. READ MORE
Oil eases as Trump backtracks on imminent Syria strike
 
Oil prices edged lower on Friday after US President Donald Trump tempered remarks warning of an imminent missile attack on Syria, but were still set for their biggest weekly gains in more than 8 months.
 
NYMEX crude for May delivery was down 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $66.86 a barrel. For the week, the contract is set to post a gain of nearly 8 percent, following two weeks of declines.
Top BSE500 gainers

COMPANY LATEST PREV CLOSE GAIN() GAIN(%)
INDIABULLS VENT. 296.00 278.15 17.85 6.42
CHAMBAL FERT. 175.20 165.90 9.30 5.61
FUTURE LIFESTYLE 473.15 448.50 24.65 5.50
PHILLIPS CARBON 1139.40 1085.15 54.25 5.00
JBF INDS. 115.80 110.30 5.50 4.99

Ashok Leyland up 3% on order win of Rs 1,000 million for 10x10 vehicles

Shares of Infosys gained 1% on Friday ahead of the IT major's fourth quarter results later in the day. On a year-to-date basis, the stock has rallied around 12.84% and has underperformed the Nifty IT index that gained around 13.5% during this period. By comparison, the Nifty50 index slipped around 0.25% YTD. READ MORE
Company Visit Note: Genus Power Infrastructure Ltd – BUY – Target Price Rs 79
 
We recently met the management of Genus Power (GPIL). The management was very positive on the demand outlook for meters. Our interaction with other industry players also corroborates this view. After the order win of smart meters in Q3FY18, news-reports indicate that GPIL is the lowest bidder in prepaid meter tender. Based on robust demand outlook, we project strong revenue and earnings growth. We reiterate BUY with a target price of Rs 79 (21x FY20E).
 
Risks:
 
1) Higher commodity prices could dent near-term margins in excess of our projections; 2) Delay in payment from SEBs/EESL could elongate working capital, which could lead to higher interest expenses.

(Source: Kotak Securities report)
Investors can earn risk-free income of 6-8% annually by lending stocks
 
For many years, long-term investors had the option to lend their shares and earn risk-free additional income by way of interest. But due to lack of awareness and demand from borrowers, the securities lending and borrowing mechanism (SLBM) never saw any meaningful volumes.
 
This is expected to change soon. On Wednesday, Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (Sebi) said that physical settlement of stock derivatives will be made mandatory in a phased manner. READ MORE
Fortis Healthcare: Company update – Manipal hikes deal value, but not sweet enough

Manipal Hospitals (MHEPL) announced a revised offer for merging Fortis Healthcare (FHL), which proposes ~21% increase in the equity valuation of hospital business. This revised proposal has been announced after several investors of FHL expressed their reservations on initial offer. As per the revised agreement, the hospital business would be valued at equity valuation of Rs60.6bn (21% higher than earlier Rs50bn).

However, MHEPL would not buy the 20% stake in SRL from FHL and FHL would continue to hold 56.6% equity stake in SRL. This new proposal values the combined entity at 26.4xCY17 EV/EBITDA, which is at premium to peers’ average of 24.7x. The revised offer is better than the initial deal proposal, which was dilutive for FHL shareholders

(Source: ICICI Securities report)
With $200-mn market value, world's best-performing retail store is in India

The allure of India’s consumer stocks is getting stronger. Jefferies India Pvt. joins a growing chorus of bulls on the producers of staples and branded goods. Its picks in the sector include V-Mart Retail Ltd., whose stock-market performance has made the company the world’s best-performing department stores chain this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. READ MORE
MUST READ Investors can earn risk-free income of 6-8% annually by lending stocks

For many years, long-term investors had the option to lend their shares and earn risk-free additional income by way of interest. But due to lack of awareness and demand from borrowers, the securities lending and borrowing mechanism (SLBM) never saw any meaningful volumes.
 
This is expected to change soon. On Wednesday, Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (Sebi) said that physical settlement of stock derivatives will be made mandatory in a phased manner CLICK HERE FOR MORE
Equirus Securities on Eicher Motors

Our recent meeting with the Eicher Motors (EIM) management suggests that Royal Enfield (RE) is seeing good traction in its newly-launched Thunderbird X – a fact also corroborated by our channel checks. With gun metal grey variant of Classic 350, stealth black of Classic 500 and now the Thunderbird X series, RE aspires for higher value growth as these variants are priced 5-6% higher than older variants.

Spare parts and gears would be the company’s other growth drivers, given the high vehicle sales over last three years. We expect a 15% volume CAGR over FY18-FY20E and retain our ADD rating on the stock. We also roll over to a Jun’19 target price of Rs 32,153 (from a Mar’19 target price of Rs 30,803), ascribing 31x Jun’19 EPS to the standalone operations and 12x EBITDA to the VECV business.
FUND PICK L&T Emerging Businesses Fund: Right calls deliver superior returns
 
Launched in May 2014, L&T Emerging Businesses Fund is classified under the small and mid-cap equity funds of CRISIL Mutual Fund Ranking. It featured in the top 30 percentile (CRISIL Fund Rank 1 or 2) in the category for three consecutive quarters ended December 2017. S N Lahiri has been managing the equity component of the portfolio since the fund's inception and Karan Desai foreign security investments since February 2017. The quarterly average assets under management of the fund stood at Rs 26.51 billion for December 2017 quarter. READ MORE
Markets at Noon

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,281.43 0.53%
 
Nifty 50 10,508.05 0.47%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,619.88 0.59%
 
Nifty 500 9,295.25 0.52%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,731.52 0.79%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 18,065.83 0.73%

Tighter aluminium supplies to drive Hindalco, Vedanta's earnings

Rusal accounts for close to six per cent of global aluminium supplies and 13-14 per cent of overall supplies if China is excluded. Analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities say that sanctions against the company can have an adverse impact on the global aluminium supply chain, and hence they expect strong improvement in outlook in next two years.
 
Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are up sharply by 14.5 per cent in less than a week, on supply disruption concerns. The per-tonne price had plummeted to $1,966 last Friday; it surprised the market by rebounding to $2,251 on Wednesday. READ MORE

Volume Toppers

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
()
CHG(%) VALUE
( CR)
VOLUME
IDBI BANK 72.05 72.50 71.10 0.70 0.98 14.72 2042822
REL. COMM. 22.65 22.75 22.20 0.40 1.80 3.40 1499417
JP ASSOCIATES 20.55 20.70 20.40 0.20 0.98 2.60 1263636
GMR INFRA. 20.15 20.35 19.70 0.40 2.03 2.14 1063329
DISH TV 79.60 81.70 79.20 -0.20 -0.25 5.74 721645

HCL Technologies falls on profit booking after Actian Corporation deal
 
HCL Technologies was down 2% to Rs 990, falling 3% from its early morning high after the company and Sumeru Equity Partners (SEP) signed a definitive agreement to acquire US company Actian Corporation in an all-cash deal, valued at $330 million (Rs 21.55 billion).
 
HCL will own 80% stake in the joint venture that has been formed, with SEP holding 19.5% and Rohit De Souza (Actian Corporation CEO) owning 0.5%, HCL said in a regulatory filing on Thursday after market hours. READ MORE
LTCG impact: Equity MF inflow down 59% to Rs 66.57-billion in March
 
Equity mutual funds witnessed a net inflow of Rs 66.57 billion in March, a plunge of 59 per cent from the preceding month, due to volatile stock markets along with profit-booking by investors to avoid payment of LTCG tax.
 
According to a report by rating agency Icra, equity funds, including equity-linked saving schemes saw monthly net inflow of Rs 66.57 billion in March, down from Rs 162.68 billion infusion seen in February. READ MORE
After 1,100% gain in 2 years, rally in Venky's India stock may halt for now

Over the past few years, this company has not only satiated the hunger of consumers of its products, but also investors who had an appetite for risk. In the past two years, Venky’s (India) has jumped nearly 1,100 per cent from Rs 376 levels to around Rs 4,500 levels now, ACE Equity data shows. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex has moved up 36 per cent during this period. In the last one year alone, the stock has gained an impressive 323 per cent.
 
The stock has been one of the top three best performers in terms of returns in the BSE 500 index over the last two years, ACE Equity data shows, only behind HEG Ltd and Indiabulls Ventures that have gained nearly 1,842 per cent and 1,700 per cent respectively during this period. READ MORE

Venky's India logo

COMMENT Morgan Stanley on economic data

We expect the inflation trajectory to be driven by strong base effects in the coming months, likely reaching a peak in June driven by the twin factors of a reversal of base effects in food inflation and continued implementation of the house rent allowance. We think rising inflation in the coming months is well expected by the market, and hence we will continue to monitor movements in core-core inflation and sequential trends to get a read on underlying inflation dynamics. We do not expect a significant persistent overshoot of the RBI’s inflation target, and hence only see a shallow rate hike cycle, beginning from 4Q18.
Dish TV India's open offer an exit opportunity; stock gains over 8%

The offer by Dish TV India’s promoters to acquire about 500 million (26 per cent) shares of the company saw the stock gain over 8 per cent on Thursday. The mandatory open offer comes against the backdrop of the promoter groups’ stake rising beyond 5 per cent in a financial year after they bought 91.5 million shares from the open market and their proposed purchase of five million shares. READ MORE
Agri related stocks rally;Chambal Fertilisers, Shakti Pumps hit 52-wk highs

Shares of agriculture-related stocks were in focus with Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Escorts and Shakti Pumps (India) hitting their respective 52-week highs on expectations of a government thrust to drive sector.
 
Madras Fertilizers, Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore (FACT), Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilisers (RCF), Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals and Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals from fertilizers, Shakti Pumps (India) and Roto Pumps from pumps manufacturer and Escorts from the tractors were up in the range of 3% to 8% on the BSE. READ MORE

Stocks at 52-week high

COMPANY LATEST 52 WK HIGH PREV HIGH PREV DATE
AARTI INDS. 1239.90 1241.85 1222.20 11-APR-2018
ABBOTT INDIA 6195.85 6271.40 6109.95 12-FEB-2018
APOLLO TYRES 296.25 299.80 297.65 09-APR-2018
CHAMBAL FERT. 175.90 176.50 173.60 26-FEB-2018
ESCORTS 933.50 936.80 922.00 09-APR-2018

MARKET COMMENT Chris Wood of CLSA

A much more pressing issue now is the renewed furore over Russia’s alleged activity in Syria and the renewed threat of US missile strikes into Syria. If a story line had to be conjured up as to how the world could stumble into another global conflict, then recent goings-on would represent a suitable narrative.

On the current furore over the alleged chemical attack in Syria, GREED & fear can find no credible reason why the Assad regime or indeed Russia would do such a thing for the simple reason that it is not in their interests. But GREED & fear can see plenty of reason for others to engineer such an atrocity to trigger US involvement.

GREED & fear has to wonder what the real attitude of The Donald is here. Trump is definitely street smart and will realise there is “no upside” for Damascus or Moscow to launch such an attack. This suggests to GREED & fear that he is willing to go along with the generals on this occasion because the ongoing Mueller investigation requires him to take, at least in public, a hard line on Moscow.

Whatever the motivation, recent dynamics pose an immediate threat to markets if they are allowed to escalate, which is much more serious in the near term than the trade issue. Hopefully, it is all theatre and there is an agreement behind the scenes between the major players on both sides. But GREED & fear is not so sure.

(Source: Wood's weekly newsletter, GREED & fear)


Sebi issues more disclosure norms for merged mutual fund schemes

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has tightened norms pertaining to disclosure of performance track record of merged mutual fund (MF) schemes. The market regulator on Thursday issued a circular for standardising performance disclosures following a merger of schemes. READ MORE

Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,223.13 0.36%
 
Nifty 50 10,483.35 0.24%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,611.53 0.41%
 
Nifty 500 9,274.35 0.29%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,693.78 0.56%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 18,048.04 0.63%

SPECIAL REPORT India can outperform EMs; bull-case Sensex target at 41,500: Morgan Stanley

Indian markets are likely to outperform their emerging market peers, suggests Ridham Desai, head of India research and India equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in a co-authored report with Sheela Rathi.
 
“While global market performance remains a key to the absolute performance of Indian stocks in the near term, India's beta to the world has dropped to a 13-year low and possibly sets the stage for India's outperformance in a low-return world,” the report says. READ MORE HERE

Photo: Shutterstock

Q4FY18 expectations from Sharekhan

Aggregate earnings of Sensex companies are expected to grow at decent 11.6% in Q4FY2018E. Growth to be driven largely by automobiles, private banks (especially retail-facing) and consumption sectors. Sensex is at 17.5x-18x FY2019E EPS (1-year forward rolling EPS), and the peak multiples having cooled off is a positive. While volatility may continue in the near term; valuations offer opportunities for stock-picking in attractive and fundamentally strong businesses
Edelweiss on AIA Engineering

We reiterate our positive stance on AIA Engineering (AIA) post our recent interaction with management led by: i) <15% penetration in mining market (addressable ~3mn MTPA) leading to 18-20% volume CAGR over FY18-20E; ii) high exposure to robust gold & copper mining segment (addressable ~1.2mn MTPA); iii) rising penetration in primary media (~40% of sales); and iv) enhanced R&D muscle via tie ups with research agencies. We estimate AIA to post PAT CAGR of 24% over FY18-20 led by improving volumes visibility. Maintain ‘BUY’ with target price of Rs 1,788
 
Stocks In News

Tata Motors launches refreshed version of Tata Ace at Rs 375,000.

RIL, JM Financial bid jointly to buy textile manufacturer Alok Industries.

Fortis received unsolicited binding offer from Hero Enterprises and Burman Family to invest Rs 1,250 crore through preferential allotment.

Thyssenkrupp says due diligence for Tata Steel joint venture almost completed; expect decision on JV by June-end.

Texmaco Rail opened subsidiary in South Africa to grow exports and EPC business in the African region.

HCL Technologies, Sumeru Equity partner to acquire Actian Corp in an all cash deal worth $330 million.

NBCC: The company has secured total business of Rs 770 crore for March 2018.

Boeing partners with HAL & Mahindra to manufacture F/A-18 Super Hornet in India.

SBI: CBI Questions DGM Rank Officials From SBI branch In Frankfurt & Mauritius.

(Source: Nirmal Bang)
MARKET COMMENT Emkay Global on IIP numbers

IIP growth remained strong at 7.1% yoy in Feb’18, higher than our estimate of 6.2%. IIP in last 4 months have been trending in the range of 7-8%. The recovery in growth has also been broad-based and is further accentuated by a lower base. Significant growth in automobiles and in capital goods oriented exports such as machinery has shifted the trajectory of growth upwards.

The credit growth at 10% yoy and softening of PMI index does not advocate strong recovery in growth.  Although consumer durables in last couple of months have improved, the index level is still below pre-demonetization level; sector has been impacted by demonetization, GST-related glitches and transitional impact of shift from unorganized to organized markets. IIP growth in FY19 is likely to escalate further to an average of 6-6.5% from FY18E 4.6%
RESULT PREVIEW Infosys to announce Q4FY18 results today: What leading brokerages expect

Infosys is set to announce its fourth-quarter numbers on April 13. On a year-to-date basis, the stock has rallied around 10 per cent and has outperformed the Nifty IT index that gained around 9 per cent during this period. By comparison, the Nifty50 index slipped around 2 per cent YTD.
 
Analysts expect information technology (IT) firms to report an improvement in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins in Q4FY18, aided by currency, operational efficiency and automation. Key monitorables for the Street include FY19E revenue guidance/outlook, along with sustainable margin trends. For Infosys, analysts are also keeping a tab on the strategy roadmap by the new chief executive (CEO), Salil Parekh. READ MORE

Infosys

Ahead of Earnings

OMCs Rebound

COMPANY LATEST PREV CLOSE GAIN() GAIN(%)
H P C L 339.15 337.05 2.10 0.62
I O C L 168.90 168.35 0.55 0.33
B P C L 419.50 418.35 1.15 0.27

Sectoral Trend


Top Sensex gainers and losers



Markets at Open

At 9:17 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 34,220, up 119 points, while the broader Nifty50 index was ruling at 10,485, up 26 points
Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 34,138.27 +37.14 +0.11
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,953.22 +14.30 +0.13
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,193.02 +16.87 +0.05
 
S&P BSE 100 10,874.81 +12.81 +0.12
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,568.01 +7.46 +0.21

(Source: BSE)
Industrial output expands at 7.1%; March retail inflation eases to 4.28%

The macroeconomic scenario for the country looks favourable for now, with industrial output continuing its healthy expansion, albeit at a slightly lower pace, and retail inflation moderating further. However, there are also some bleak signs, such as a contraction in mining in February and a rise in core inflation in March. Besides, oil prices and minimum support prices may lead to a spike in inflation in coming months. READ MORE
Today's picks: From Lupin to Infosys, stocks to watch on Friday

Infosys
Current price: Rs 1,162
Target price: Rs 1,190
 
Keep a stop at Rs 1,160and go long. Add to the position between Rs 1,180 and Rs 1,185. Book profits at Rs 1,190. READ MORE

Commodity outlook by Tradebulls for today

Gold broke the short-term resistance of $1,345 but the medium term resistance of $1,365 proved once again its nemesis. In wake of Trump’s missile threat, gold got the much-needed boost to break out of its $1,345-1,320 range but again stopped at $1,365. Since starting of 2018, $1,365 has proven to be strong resistance and we feel that next leg up for gold will only come if gold happens to jump above that level. Gold in MCX has been making a higher top and higher bottom indicating a bullish trend. The support of 30,500 has shifted now to 30,900. We are bullish on gold but would avoid advocating long position in silver owing to weak technical chart. Silver is trading sideways and we foresee any upside only above 39,600. READ MORE
Derivatives strategy on Tata Elxsi April Future by HDFC Securities

Buy Tata Elxsi April Future at Rs 1,172
Stop loss: Rs 1,158
Target: Rs 1,200
 
Rationale: Long positions being built in Tata Elxsi Futures' today where we have seen open interest addition with price rise. Stock Price has given a breakout on the daily chart today with rise in volumes where it managed to close above the resistance level of 1,150 odd levels with rising in Volumes. Technology as a sector is doing well. Short term moving averages are trading above long-term moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. Momentum Indicators and Oscillators are Indicating strength in the stock for the short to medium term.

Nifty outlook from Prabhudas Lilladher for today

Nifty has crossed the 10,450 level and nearing the significant 10,500 mark where the major resistance is anticipated and with the daily trend up since the past 12 days exhaustion is in the vicinity. The daily chart of midcap index showed some consolidation at the higher level and chances of a correction in the coming days cannot be ruled out. However, the support for the day is seen at 10,400 while the resistance would be at 10,520 levels. READ MORE
Markets on Thursday

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,101.13 0.47%
 
Nifty 50 10,458.65 0.40%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,592.63 0.27%
 
Nifty 500 9,247.25 0.18%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,600.67 -0.13%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,934.83 -0.27%

SGX Nifty

The SGX Nifty was at 10,475, up 0.07 per cent from the previous close.
Asian Markets

Stocks recovered to three-week highs on Friday as anticipated strong earnings season took centre stage after US President Donald Trump backtracked on his suggestion of an imminent missile attack on Syria.
 
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ticked up 0.1 per cent while Japan's Nikkei gained 0.8 per cent.
Wall Street

US stocks climbed on Thursday as investors anticipated a strong earnings season and as US President Donald Trump's suggestion that a military strike on Syria may not be imminent ratcheted down geopolitical worries.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 293.6 points, or 1.21 per cent, to 24,483.05, the S&P 500 gained 21.8 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 2,663.99, and the Nasdaq Composite added 71.22 points, or 1.01 per cent, to 7,140.25.
 
Good Morning!

Welcome to Business Standard's live blog on markets.