MARKETS ON FRIDAY: Sensex hits 35k intraday; trims gains to end 256 pts up

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Benchmark indices ended sharply up on Friday at two-month highs, triggered by corporate earnings and taking cues from global peers.

The S&P BSE Sensex hit an intra-day high of 35,065, but pared gains to end at 34,970 levels, up 256 points. The broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,692, up 75 points.

In global markets, Asian shares edged higher, after US equities were buoyed by solid quarterly earnings and a rebound in technology stocks, while the euro languished near three-month lows after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged. 

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.4 per cent. South Korean equities were up 0.7 per cent.

Back home, Reliance Industries (RIL) hit a record high of Rs 1,000 per share, up 2.5% on the BSE in intraday trade on the BSE, ahead of its Q4FY18 results today. The stock surpassed its previous high of Rs 990 recorded on January 23, 2018 in intra-day deal. The textiles-to-telecom conglomerate, RIL is expected to post its best-ever quarterly consolidated net profit, with the figure expected to be close to Rs 100-billion mark.

Axis Bank gained 9% at Rs 540 per share on the NSE, despite the private sector lender reporting its first net loss of Rs 21.8 billion for the quarter ended March 2018 (Q4FY18).

Country’s largest car maker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a record annual profit of Rs 77.21 billion for the year ended March 31, 2018, helped by a double-digit growth in volumes of cars sold.

The Suzuki-promoted firm clocked a near 17 per cent jump in sales revenue for the year to Rs 781 billion. Profit, however, grew by just five per cent. An increase in effective tax rates and lower non-operating income due to mark-to-market impact on the invested surplus, compared to last year impacted net profit, the company said

(with Reuters inputs)


3:41 PM IST Sectoral performers of the day

3:38 PM IST BSE Sensex gainers and losers of the day

3:35 PM IST Market at close   The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,970, up 256 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,692, up 75 points.

3:26 PM IST Maruti Suzuki India falls 5% from day's high post Q4 results Shares of Maruti Suzuki India have dipped 2.5% to Rs 8,721 per share, falling 5% from their intra-day high of Rs 9,142 per share on the BSE, after the automaker reported a lower than expected net profit of Rs 18.82 billion due to higher tax outgo in March quarter (Q4FY18). It had profit of Rs 17.11 billion in year ago quarter. READ MORE

3:18 PM IST Sensex reclaims 35,000: IT, FMCG, auto, metal stocks shine in claw-back The S&P BSE Sensex has regained nearly 2,400 points, or 7.4 per cent, from its recent low hit on March 23, 2018, to reclaim 35,000 levels in intra-day deals on Friday. Stocks from the metal, information technology (IT), fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and automobiles sectors have been among the top performers during this rally.   While Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Dabur India and Britannia Industries from the FMCG sector have rallied in the range of 10 per cent to 16 per cent, as many as 18 stocks from the information technology (IT) sector such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Mphasis, Mindtree, Sasken Technologies, Firstsource Solutions and NIIT Technologies have rallied between 20 per cent and 43 per cent during the period. READ MORE

3:07 PM IST COMMENT ON MARUTI'S RESULTS Abhishek Jain, analyst at HDFC Securities We remain positive on Maruti Suzuki's (MSIL’s) growth story based on: (1) steady volume growth plus increase in PV market share (2) Increasing ASP, led by expanding portfolio in the premium segment, (3) incremental volumes from the Gujarat facility (4) Ramp-up in rural demand and 5) healthy ROE/ROCE (25% in FY19/20E) and free cash flows. However, challenges persist in the form of: (1) increasing fuel prices, and (2) slowdown in demand from cab aggregators such as Ola and Uber owing to cut down in incentives for car owners/drivers. We expect revenue/EPS growth of 13/17% CAGR over FY18-20E. The stock is fairly valued at 23x FY20E (5/10 yr median at 20/16x). Maintain NEUTRAL with target price of Rs 9525, 25x FY20E

3:05 PM IST Market Check Index Current Pt. Change % Change   S&P BSE SENSEX 34,964.88 +251.28 +0.72   S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,187.55 +71.62 +0.64   S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,718.44 +294.99 +0.86   S&P BSE 100 11,097.12 +74.70 +0.68   S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,590.97 +61.63 +1.75 (Source: BSE)

2:57 PM IST MUST READ Maruti Suzuki posts record Rs 77 bn profit in FY18 on 17% hike in revenue Country’s largest car maker Maruti Suzuki has reported a record annual profit of Rs 77.21 billion for the year ended March 31, 2018, helped by a double-digit growth in volumes of cars sold.   The Suzuki promoted firm clocked a near 17 per cent jump in sales revenue for the year to Rs 781 billion. Profit, however, grew by just five per cent. An increase in effective tax rates and lower non-operating income due to mark-to-market impact on the invested surplus, compared to last year impacted net profit, the company said. READ MORE

2:48 PM IST Earnings impact: Maruti Suzuki shares slip 1.8% on NSE

2:36 PM IST Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: EBITDA margin at 14.2% vs 14% (YoY), reports CNBC TV18

2:35 PM IST Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: Realisation up 3.6% at Rs 4.58 Lk vs Rs 4.42 Lk (YoY), reports CNBC TV18

2:33 PM IST Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: Revenue up 15.4% at Rs 21,165.6 vs Rs 18,333 (YoY), reports CNBC TV18

LIVE UPDATES

Sectoral performers of the day


BSE Sensex gainers and losers of the day



Market at close
 
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,970, up 256 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,692, up 75 points.
Maruti Suzuki India falls 5% from day's high post Q4 results

Shares of Maruti Suzuki India have dipped 2.5% to Rs 8,721 per share, falling 5% from their intra-day high of Rs 9,142 per share on the BSE, after the automaker reported a lower than expected net profit of Rs 18.82 billion due to higher tax outgo in March quarter (Q4FY18). It had profit of Rs 17.11 billion in year ago quarter. READ MORE
Sensex reclaims 35,000: IT, FMCG, auto, metal stocks shine in claw-back

The S&P BSE Sensex has regained nearly 2,400 points, or 7.4 per cent, from its recent low hit on March 23, 2018, to reclaim 35,000 levels in intra-day deals on Friday. Stocks from the metal, information technology (IT), fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and automobiles sectors have been among the top performers during this rally.
 
While Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Dabur India and Britannia Industries from the FMCG sector have rallied in the range of 10 per cent to 16 per cent, as many as 18 stocks from the information technology (IT) sector such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Mphasis, Mindtree, Sasken Technologies, Firstsource Solutions and NIIT Technologies have rallied between 20 per cent and 43 per cent during the period. READ MORE

COMMENT ON MARUTI'S RESULTS Abhishek Jain, analyst at HDFC Securities

We remain positive on Maruti Suzuki's (MSIL’s) growth story based on: (1) steady volume growth plus increase in PV market share (2) Increasing ASP, led by expanding portfolio in the premium segment, (3) incremental volumes from the Gujarat facility (4) Ramp-up in rural demand and 5) healthy ROE/ROCE (25% in FY19/20E) and free cash flows. However, challenges persist in the form of: (1) increasing fuel prices, and (2) slowdown in demand from cab aggregators such as Ola and Uber owing to cut down in incentives for car owners/drivers.

We expect revenue/EPS growth of 13/17% CAGR over FY18-20E. The stock is fairly valued at 23x FY20E (5/10 yr median at 20/16x). Maintain NEUTRAL with target price of Rs 9525, 25x FY20E
Market Check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 34,964.88 +251.28 +0.72
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,187.55 +71.62 +0.64
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,718.44 +294.99 +0.86
 
S&P BSE 100 11,097.12 +74.70 +0.68
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,590.97 +61.63 +1.75


(Source: BSE)
MUST READ Maruti Suzuki posts record Rs 77 bn profit in FY18 on 17% hike in revenue

Country’s largest car maker Maruti Suzuki has reported a record annual profit of Rs 77.21 billion for the year ended March 31, 2018, helped by a double-digit growth in volumes of cars sold.
 
The Suzuki promoted firm clocked a near 17 per cent jump in sales revenue for the year to Rs 781 billion. Profit, however, grew by just five per cent. An increase in effective tax rates and lower non-operating income due to mark-to-market impact on the invested surplus, compared to last year impacted net profit, the company said. READ MORE
Earnings impact: Maruti Suzuki shares slip 1.8% on NSE


Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: EBITDA margin at 14.2% vs 14% (YoY), reports CNBC TV18
Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: Realisation up 3.6% at Rs 4.58 Lk vs Rs 4.42 Lk (YoY), reports CNBC TV18
Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: Revenue up 15.4% at Rs 21,165.6 vs Rs 18,333 (YoY), reports CNBC TV18
Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: EBITDA up 17.8% at Rs 3,015 cr vs Rs 2,560 cr (YoY), reports CNBC TV18
Maruti Suzuki Q4FY18: Profit up 10.1% at Rs 1,882 cr vs Rs 1,710 cr (YoY), reports CNBC TV18


Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 35,013.14 0.86%
 
Nifty 50 10,701.05 0.78%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,703.67 0.80%
 
Nifty 500 9,452.85 0.76%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,932.15 0.88%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 18,290.14 0.69%

Jewellers see 10% export growth in FY19 after 5% decline in FY18

After a five per cent decline in FY18, jewellers believe there would be a 10 per cent jump in India’s gem and jewellery export for the current financial year. They point to demand from new markets, depreciation in the rupee against the dollar and increases in diamond prices. READ MORE

PSU banks rally; Nifty PSU Bank index up 5%

Shares of public sector undertaking (PSU) banks were in focus with Nifty PSU Bank index gaining 5%, its sharpest intra-day gain during past one month on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). READ MORE

Sebi puts plans to allow MFs to be sold via passporting on the back-burner

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has put its plans to allow Indian mutual funds (MFs) to be sold through ‘passporting’ on the back-burner. Passporting would have allowed domestic schemes to be sold in Asian countries without the need for regulatory clearance in the host country.
 
The regulator is worried about excessive inflows into MFs and fears that being part of such an agreement will bring in additional foreign money into Indian mutual fund schemes, making them more susceptible to sudden outflows, sources said. READ MORE

Lodha Developers files DRHP for IPO, aims to raise Rs 53 billion

Mumbai based property developer Lodha has filed draft red herring prospectus for its IPO. The IPO aims to raise between Rs 50 billion to Rs 53.50 billion, sources said. The issue comprises issue of fresh shares worth Rs 37.50 billion and an offer for sale (OFS) of 18 million shares by the promoters. READ MORE

FOMC meeting—key expectations by Morgan Stanley
 
We look for no change in the target range of the federal funds rate in its May 01 - 02 meeting, following the 25bp increase to 1.50%-1.75% at the March meeting.
By the time of its May meeting, the FOMC will have the 1Q GDP data in hand.

Despite a weak start to the year, GDP has clearly been held down by transitory factors and we believe a rebound is in the cards. Since the March meeting, the incoming inflation data have confirmed the expected rebound as last year's telecom price reset rolled out of the 12-month window. We believe March data on core PCE inflation, released April 30, will show an annual rate of 2.0%—touching the Fed's 2% goal for the first time since spring 2012.
Trader's guide to India elections says it is time to buy equities

Indian stocks have been roughed up along with most markets in recent months, but there could soon be reason to cheer. National elections are due by 2019, and modern history shows that tends to be a good thing for investors.
 
While Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces an uphill battle to sustain his party’s majority in the key lower house of parliament, the past six elections show positive returns for Indian equities over the two years that straddle the vote — regardless of whether power changed hands. READ MORE

Indian Hotels stock: Lower debt, higher room revenues to aid margin

The Indian Hotels stock has gained 20 per cent over the past month on expectations that demand growth, presence in the higher growth premium segment, improving margins and debt reduction will reflect on operational performance. Given the improving industry dynamics and strong outlook, brokerages are positive on the prospects. The reason for the positive stance is the improving demand-supply situation, reflected in higher occupancy levels. READ MORE

Emerging markets performance tied to oil price surge, says Nomura

If the crude oil prices continue to go up, there could be variations in the performance of emerging markets (EMs). Markets such as Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Russia could gain at the expense of oil importers such as India, the Philippines and Indonesia. READ MORE
Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,933.49 0.63%
 
Nifty 50 10,678.85 0.57%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,693.83 0.59%
 
Nifty 500 9,435.30 0.58%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,889.19 0.62%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 18,280.01 0.64%

TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO SENSEX'S GAIN TODAY

COMPANY LATEST CHG(RS) CHG(%) FREE FLOAT
MKT CAP
(RS CR)
CONTRIBUTION
(POINTS)
ICICI BANK 289.15 10.40 3.73 149832.07 72.63
AXIS BANK 519.00 24.45 4.94 73182.24 48.94
ST BK OF INDIA 245.05 11.70 5.01 71541.97 43.69
RELIANCE INDS. 994.95 19.60 2.01 176731.30 41.98
MARUTI SUZUKI 9125.00 177.20 1.98 61497.20 28.32

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL LIST
STOCK WATCH Axis Bank rises 5% despite weak Q4 results

Shares of Axis Bank were up 5% at Rs 522 per share on the BSE despite the private sector lender reporting its first net loss of Rs 21.8 billion for the quarter ended March 2018 (Q4FY18), as non-performing assets (NPAs) soared and provisions for bad loans surged three times over the corresponding quarter last year CLICK HERE FOR MORE
IIFL on Sterlite Technologies Limited (STL)

Going forward, the rising capex from telecom companies to improve network infrastructure, Government’ BharatNet program and smart city projects would be the key growth drivers for STL. With order book driven by high margin products, blended operating margins are likely to remain elevated at >20% levels over next few years. Post the recent correction in share price, the stock is trading at attractive valuations. We upgrade our rating to BUY for target price of Rs.406 (15x FY20E EV/EBITDA)
Morgan Stanley on YES Bank

Our price target of Rs400 is derived using a base case residual income model with three phases: a five-year high-growth period, a 10-year maturity period, and a declining period. We use a cost of equity of 13.6% assuming a risk-free rate of 7.25%, a market risk premium of 5.5% and a beta of 1.15 respectively. We use a terminal growth rate of 6.0%.

Downside risks : Slower-than-expected loan and fee income growth, sharp compression in NIM, poor macro conditions, which would impair asset quality, higher-than-expected second-order impact from RBI actions , structural increase in provisioning due to the RBI’s dynamic provisioning policy .
Rupee outlook by Elara Capital

With US 10 year yield hovering around 3%, and US Dollar Index at 91.56 level compared to calendar year low of 88.39, Rupee is likely to remain under pressure in the near term with a possibility of USDINR touching 68 if the US yields jump higher from the current levels and oil prices sustain.

However, we continue to believe that the recent weakness in the Rupee is getting amplified by the developments in the global space and hence there would be some respite in store in the medium term supporting a retracement of Rupee to a level closer to 66 to the US Dollar by Q2FY19
Edelweiss on Tajas Networks

Although the company has maintained its FY17-20 revenue CAGR guidance of 20%, we are building in 14.4% CAGR due to low visibility and potential demand challenges in overseas business. Accordingly, we cut FY19/20E revenue and earnings by 17.2%/14.6% and 20.7%/15.7%, respectively.

We also lower our target multiple to 20x (from 23x) to factor in volatility in revenue. However, we believe that the company’s business model is well suited to benefit from strong order flow led by increasing fibre investments. Maintain ‘BUY’ with revised target price of Rs 396
RESULT PREVIEW Motilal Oswal expects Maruti to hit Rs 14,000; here's Q4FY18 results preview

On Friday, Maruti Suzuki will report the financial performance for the January – March 2018 quarter (Q4FY18) and the full financial year 2017-18 (FY18).
 
The automobile sector, which witnessed a healthy sales growth in FY18 led by higher demand from rural markets and the fast-growing SUV segment, should continue to do well in the new fiscal year (FY19) as well, analysts say READ MORE


HIL surges 9% as Q4 profit rises more than double

Shares of HIL have surged 9% to Rs 2,267 per share, also their record high on the BSE, after the company reported more than double net profit at Rs 200 million for the quarter ended March 2018 (Q4FY18). The CK Birla Group Company engaged in cement & cement products business had profit of Rs 70 million in year ago quarter. READ MORE

SAT adjourns RIL plea against Sebi's disgorgement order till June 20

The Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) on Thursday adjourned hearing in the appeal filed by Reliance Industries (RIL) against the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (Sebi’s) disgorgement order. The tribunal will hear the matter on June 20.
 
RIL has moved SAT against Sebi order, directing it to disgorge Rs4.5 billion made “unlawfully” by dealing in shares of its erstwhile subsidiary Reliance Petroleum (RPL). READ MORE
 

Axis Bank posts first quarterly loss since listing in 1998 at Rs 21.8 bn

Private sector lender Axis Bank reported its first net loss, of Rs 21.8 billion, for the quarter ended March as non-performing assets (NPAs) soared and provisions for bad loans surged three times over the corresponding quarter last year. The results were well below Street expectations on most key parameters, including profits. READ MORE
 

Rising crude prices: What it means for India's oil, telecom sectors

Public sector oil refining-marketing companies (OMCs) have taken a hammering in the past year. The downtrend is likely to continue. Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Indian Oil (IOC) are down 8.5 per cent, 10.8 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively in the last 30 days, and down by 19 per cent, 19.9 per cent and 62 per cent in the last year.
 
GAIL, which is a gas marketer, is also down 23 per cent in the last 30 days. The equation is simple. If crude oil prices rise and gas prices rise alongside, OMCs suffer due to falling refining margins. READ MORE
 

Interview of the day Weakness in rupee will constrain capital flows into India: Sanjay Singh

Weakness in the rupee, surging bond yields in America and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike forecasts will constrain capital flows into India, says Sanjay Singh, head of global markets at the Indian arm of BNP Paribas, the French international banking group. Political uncertainty is also weighing on investor sentiment, says Singh. READ MORE
SANJAY SINGH, head of global markets at the Indian arm of BNP Paribas, the French international banking group

Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,961.88 0.72%
 
Nifty 50 10,682.35 0.61%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,696.22 0.64%
 
Nifty 500 9,444.30 0.67%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,896.68 0.66%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 18,285.52 0.67%

Kotak Institutional Equities on Axis Bank

Axis Bank took an important step to recognize NPLs on a majority of the balance of stress highlighted to investors in the past few years. Provisions rose sharply resulting in a loss. Outstanding bad loans remain unchanged at ~13% of loans but gross NPLs form 75% of these loans as compared to 55% in 3QFY18.

Our previous upgrade was a valuation call but a few quarters of stable/improving trends can result in valuation expansion. Recommend ADD with a target price of Rs 600
Reliance Industries hits record high ahead of March quarter results

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) hit a record high of Rs 1,000 per share, up 2.5% on the BSE in early morning trade on the BSE, ahead of its January-March quarter (Q4FY18) results today. The stock surpassed its previous high of Rs 990 recorded on January 23, 2018 in intra-day deal. Textiles to telecom conglomerate, RIL is expected to post its best-ever quarterly consolidated net profit, with the figure expected to be close to Rs 100 billion mark. READ MORE

Rollover Stats

·      Cement, Pharma, Metals, Media and Fertilisers sectors witnessed higher rollovers compared to same day of  previous expiry.
 
·      FMCG, Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, Realty and Power sectors witnessed lower rollovers compared to same day of previous expiry.
 
·      Highest rollover in current expiry: Media, Pharma, Infrastructure, Finance and Fertilisers.
 
·      Lowest rollover in current expiry: Capital Goods, FMCG, Oil & Gas, Power and Realty.

(Source: Nirmal Bang report)
MARKET COMMENT Chris Wood of CLSA

The negative reaction of US stocks on Tuesday to the 10-year Treasury yield touching 3% raises the pertinent issue again of whether the S&P500 peaked for this cycle back in late January. One symptom of a bear market resuming is that stock market trading volume has for the most part been declining on countertrend rallies relative to rising volume when the market sells off


Nomura maintains 'buy' rating on Axis Bank

While we cut our FY19/20F PAT estimates by 37%/9%. We still expect ROEs to normalise to +15% by FY20F. Current valuation at 1.5x FY20F book is not demanding with a possibility of credit costs undershooting long term average. Our revised target price of Rs 630/share (~28% potential upside) implies 2x FY20F book with a subsidiary value of Rs 45/share.
Companies In News 
 
·         15 IDBI officals named in bank fraud case, raids conducted at 50 locations: CBI Official
 
·         Fortis to discuss further board restructuring on April 27
 
·         Thermax won Rs 279 crore order for a captive cogeneration power plant
 
·         IEX board decided not to go ahead with buyback
 
·         Essel Propack’s board recommended 1:1 bonus issue
 
·         Cyient acquired semiconductor firm Ansem N.V. in an all cash deal worth $17 million
 
·         Gati approved inducting new strategic and/or financial partner
 
·         CCI finds no Appreciable Adverse Effect on Competition in respect of Tata Steel’s proposed acquisition of Bhushan Steel
 
·         Apollo Micro Systems said that the company officials were asked to appear before IT officials on April 25
 
·         MOIL signed MoU with Ministry of Steel for FY19
 
·         Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilisers shuts down ammonia, urea and ABC Plants for annual turnaround maintenance
 
(Source: IIFL)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGY: Rollovers Analysis – April 2018
 
Nifty/Bank-Nifty gained 4.93/2.9% led by heavy weights of the likes of TCS/Reliance. Monthly highlights include a) Significant outperformance to global peers b) Trending up-move on Nifty despite FIIs staying net index futures short for entire series c) Massive OI seen at 11k strikes on calls (4.3mn shares).

Nifty/BankNifty rolls stpood at 72/82% (2.3cr/21 lakhs shares) higher than prior month of 69/75% (2.09cr/16.2 lakhs shares). Market-wide rollovers stood at 87% in line with prior month. Total aggregate OI rolled to May series stayed at ~500cr, almost flat when compared sequentially. 
 
FIIs long/short ratio on index futures stood at 1.19x vs 0.22x at start of the previous month. FIIs long/short index future rolls were 69.1/40.5%, significantly up from previous month on long rolls. May series begins with maximum open interest buildup at 11,000 calls (4.3mn shares) & 10,500 puts (3mn shares). With Karnataka polls verdict due this month, volatility is likely to flare up going forward.   
 
(Source: IIFL)
 
Sectoral Trend


BSE Sensex Heatmap


Market at open
 
At 9:16 AM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 34,862, up 149 points while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 10,668, up 50 points.
Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 34,791.28 +77.68 +0.22
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,156.93 +41.00 +0.37
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,474.23 +50.78 +0.15
 
S&P BSE 100 11,059.25 +36.83 +0.33
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,510.76 -18.58 -0.53

(Source: BSE)
Commodity outlook and top trading ideas by Tradebulls for today

Gold has been affected by rising US Treasury yield and strong US Dollar. However in MCX, the fall was capped thanks to weak Indian Rupee. With geopolitical and trade risk in the rear view mirror for the time being, there is no incentive for gold to push its prices higher. Technically too Gold in COMEX is unable to sustain above $1355 and has fallen back to its trading range of $1313-1350. Now that it is trading around $1326, we don’t expect significant fall but expect it to trade in range. In MCX, the trend still is bullish with higher bottom and trend reversal may only come below 30900. Silver, on the other hand, still looks weak. In COMEX, once again it has come below $17 and 200 Day moving average. With correction in base metals, silver bears are getting active and pushing prices down. Out of gold and silver, we are bearish in silver and any long position can only be taken above 41000. READ MORE
RESULT PREVIEW Will Reliance Industries' quarterly profit scale past Rs 100 billion?

Textiles to telecom conglomerate, Reliance Industries (RIL) is expected to post its best-ever quarterly consolidated net profit, with the figure expected to be close to Rs 100 billion mark. The strong quarterly expectations are on the back of its petrochemicals segment performance. In addition, retail and telecom are likely to help the company’s March 2018 quarter (Q4) performance. READ MORE


Today's picks: From Bharti Infratel to HUL hot stocks to watch on Friday

Bharti Infratel
Current price: Rs 312
Target price: Rs 306

Keep a stop at Rs316 and go short. Add to the position between Rs307 and Rs308. Book profits at Rs306. READ MORE

Elara Capital on Gujarat Gas

We reiterate Buy with a target price of Rs 1,115, assuming gas sales volume at 7.5mmscmd in FY19E and at 8.9mmscmd in FY20E, from 6.3mmscmd in FY18E. Our target price is based on a DCF method, with a 9.8% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), a 7% volume CAGR during FY19-29E, 4.0% long-term demand growth and Rs 4.7/scm long-term EBITDA margin
Derivatives strategy on Manappuram Finance by HDFC Securities

Buy Manappuram Finance May 120 call at Rs 5.50
 
Stop loss: Rs 4
 
Target: Rs 9
 
Rationale: We have seen long positions being built in Manappuram Finance futures today where we have seen a rise in open interest with the price rise of 2%. In the option segment, 130 call added 3.72 lakh shares in open interest today suggesting higher possibility of sharp price from here. The stock price has given breakout on the daily chart where it managed to close above 5 and 20 day SMA with a sharp rise in Volumes. Momentum Indicators like RSI is showing strength in the stock for short to medium term. READ MORE

NIfty Outlook (Image source: Geojit Financial Services)



Top trading ideas from Prabhudas Lilladher: Buy Tata Motors, Uniply Inds

BUY TATA MOTORS 
 
CMP : Rs 330.25 
TARGET : Rs 380 
STOP LOSS : Rs 300
 
The stock has taken support at 325 on twice occasions thus making a double bottom formation like pattern in the daily chart and with the promising cues from the indicators, we anticipate a upward rise from here on to scale till 375-380 levels in the coming days. The RSI has indicated a trend reversal to signal a buy and with good volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 380 keeping a stop loss of 300. READ MORE

Markets on Thursday

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,713.60 0.62%
 
Nifty 50 10,617.80 0.45%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,666.37 0.44%
 
Nifty 500 9,381.35 0.34%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,785.08 -0.02%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 18,164.41 0.25%

SGX Nifty

The SGX Nifty was at 10,658, up 0.39 per cent from the previous close.
Asian Markets

Asian shares edged higher on Friday, after US equities were buoyed by solid quarterly earnings and a rebound in technology stocks, while the euro languished near three-month lows after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.
 
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.4 per cent. South Korean equities were up 0.7 per cent.
Wall Street

US stocks advanced on Thursday with each of Wall Street's major indexes ending the session up 1 per cent or higher, boosted by solid earnings results and a rebound in technology stocks as US bond yields pulled back.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.51 points (0.99 per cent) to 24,322.34, the S&P 500 gained 27.54 points (1.04 per cent) to 2,666.94 and the Nasdaq Composite added 114.94 points (1.64 per cent) to 7,118.68.
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