Sensex ends over 600 points higher, Nifty above 10,400 mark on global cues

A share broker monitors market fluctuation
The domestic indices ended nearly 2% higher on Monday, mirroring gains in their key Asian counterparts.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,918, up 611 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,421, up 195 points. This was the biggest intra-day gain for the indices in almost a year, data show.

In the global markets, a relief rally swept across Asia on Monday after the latest US jobs report managed to impress with its strength while also easing fears of inflation and faster rate hikes, a neat feat that whetted risk appetites globally.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.3 per cent, poised for a third session of gains. Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.6 per cent.

Inflation worries faded on Friday after US data showed nonfarm payrolls jumped by 313,000 jobs last month, but annual growth in average hourly earnings slowed to 2.6 per cent after a spike in January.

Back home, the Nifty FMCG index ended 2.62% higher on Monday, led by a rise in the shares of United Spirits, ITC and Tata Global Beverages, while the Nifty Metal index rose 2.14% as Jindal Stainless (Hisar), Jindal Steel & Power and Steel Authority of India Limited gained ground.

(with inputs from Reuters)

3:56 PM IST MARKET COMMENT Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking It's being an exceptional day for equity markets as Nifty gained nearly two percent and reclaimed 10400. It opened gap up, tracking firm global cues and traded range bound in the first half. However, short covering in the latter half triggered fresh momentum in the latter half and almost all the sectoral indices participated in the move.   It was indeed a surprise up move but sustainability above 10400 will be crucial for further recovery. Participants will react to macro-economic data i.e. IIP and CPI inflation in early trade tomorrow. We suggest traders limiting leveraged positions and continuing with stock specific trading approach

3:56 PM IST MARKET COMMENT Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research Nifty continued the upward momentum as short-term patterns suggested the bounce to be evident. Nifty pullback seemed to be swift in last few days since momentum on dips has been followed by buying. Bank Nifty added the weight for bulls with prices retracing back to 24700 zones where it consolidated for a brief period of time. As this rally expands, we believe the resistances will be developed to near levels of 10450 - 10460. In case prices are not able to breach these level then it will be a pullback out of the recent breakdown of the pattern. On the downside, supports are open towards 200 Days SMA at 10150 - 10200. Prices may continue for some time in sideways zone in these levels. A close above only 10650 will trigger some kind of short covering while also calling in long side momentum players.   

3:54 PM IST NEWS IMPACT Bharti Airtel rallies on fund raising plans   Shares of the telecom operator rose as much as 4.86%, the most in over a month, to Rs 421.70. The Sunil Mittal-led company’s board approved the issuance of foreign currency bond of $1 billion or equivalent in one or more tranches, according to its stock exchange notification  

3:47 PM IST Nifty Metal index rises 2.14%

3:43 PM IST Nifty FMCG surges 2.62%

3:39 PM IST Nifty Sectoral gainers and losers

3:37 PM IST BSE Sensex gainers and losers

3:36 PM IST Index watch Index Current Pt. Change % Change   S&P BSE SENSEX 33,917.94 +610.80 +1.83   S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,879.19 +195.42 +1.83   S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,959.91 +197.30 +0.60   S&P BSE 100 10,751.18 +173.39 +1.64   S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,554.22 +65.60 +1.88 (Source: BSE)

3:33 PM IST Market at close   The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,918, up 611 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,421, up 195 points.

3:16 PM IST PSU banks lost Rs 900-billion market-cap in one month post PNB scam The public sector undertaking (PSU) banks have lost Rs 900-billion market capitalisation (market-cap) in past one month after the Rs 114 billion ($1.8 billion) fraud at Punjab National Bank (PNB) came to light. READ MORE

3:12 PM IST IPO CORNER Bharat Dynamics Limited   In terms of valuations, the pre-issue P/E works out to 22.7x 1HFY2018 annualized earnings (at the upper end of the issue price band), which is lower compared to BDL’s peers like Bharat Electron and Apollo Micro System (trading at 33.6x and 40.7x of its 1HFY2018 annualized earnings respectively).    Further, BDL has a strong order book and revenue visibility, coupled with superior return ratios compared to peers. Hence, considering the above positive factors including growth in the defence industry, we recommend SUBSCRIBE on the issue.   (Source: Angel Broking)

3:00 PM IST TOP SENSEX CONTRIBUTORS COMPANY LATEST CHG(RS) CHG(%) FREE FLOAT MKT CAP (RS CR) CONTRIBUTION (POINTS) ITC 269.65 10.25 3.95 261575.10 99.34 INFOSYS 1190.00 26.60 2.29 218668.11 64.18 H D F C 1851.25 32.80 1.80 193778.42 62.48 ICICI BANK 298.35 5.65 1.93 149832.07 39.62 HDFC BANK 1867.00 13.80 0.74 210795.90 32.73 BHARTI AIRTEL 419.55 17.60 4.38 44847.83 29.73

LIVE UPDATES

MARKET COMMENT Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking

It's being an exceptional day for equity markets as Nifty gained nearly two percent and reclaimed 10400. It opened gap up, tracking firm global cues and traded range bound in the first half. However, short covering in the latter half triggered fresh momentum in the latter half and almost all the sectoral indices participated in the move.
 
It was indeed a surprise up move but sustainability above 10400 will be crucial for further recovery. Participants will react to macro-economic data i.e. IIP and CPI inflation in early trade tomorrow. We suggest traders limiting leveraged positions and continuing with stock specific trading approach
MARKET COMMENT Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research

Nifty continued the upward momentum as short-term patterns suggested the bounce to be evident. Nifty pullback seemed to be swift in last few days since momentum on dips has been followed by buying. Bank Nifty added the weight for bulls with prices retracing back to 24700 zones where it consolidated for a brief period of time.

As this rally expands, we believe the resistances will be developed to near levels of 10450 - 10460. In case prices are not able to breach these level then it will be a pullback out of the recent breakdown of the pattern. On the downside, supports are open towards 200 Days SMA at 10150 - 10200. Prices may continue for some time in sideways zone in these levels. A close above only 10650 will trigger some kind of short covering while also calling in long side momentum players. 
 
NEWS IMPACT Bharti Airtel rallies on fund raising plans
 
Shares of the telecom operator rose as much as 4.86%, the most in over a month, to Rs 421.70. The Sunil Mittal-led company’s board approved the issuance of foreign currency bond of $1 billion or equivalent in one or more tranches, according to its stock exchange notification
 

Nifty Metal index rises 2.14%


Nifty FMCG surges 2.62%


Nifty Sectoral gainers and losers


BSE Sensex gainers and losers


Index watch

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 33,917.94 +610.80 +1.83
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,879.19 +195.42 +1.83
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,959.91 +197.30 +0.60
 
S&P BSE 100 10,751.18 +173.39 +1.64
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,554.22 +65.60 +1.88

(Source: BSE)
Market at close
 
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,918, up 611 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,421, up 195 points.
PSU banks lost Rs 900-billion market-cap in one month post PNB scam

The public sector undertaking (PSU) banks have lost Rs 900-billion market capitalisation (market-cap) in past one month after the Rs 114 billion ($1.8 billion) fraud at Punjab National Bank (PNB) came to light. READ MORE
IPO CORNER Bharat Dynamics Limited
 
In terms of valuations, the pre-issue P/E works out to 22.7x 1HFY2018 annualized earnings (at the upper end of the issue price band), which is lower compared to BDL’s peers like Bharat Electron and Apollo Micro System (trading at 33.6x and 40.7x of its 1HFY2018 annualized earnings respectively). 
 
Further, BDL has a strong order book and revenue visibility, coupled with superior return ratios compared to peers. Hence, considering the above positive factors including growth in the defence industry, we recommend SUBSCRIBE on the issue.
 
(Source: Angel Broking)
TOP SENSEX CONTRIBUTORS

COMPANY LATEST CHG(RS) CHG(%) FREE FLOAT
MKT CAP
(RS CR)
CONTRIBUTION
(POINTS)
ITC 269.65 10.25 3.95 261575.10 99.34
INFOSYS 1190.00 26.60 2.29 218668.11 64.18
H D F C 1851.25 32.80 1.80 193778.42 62.48
ICICI BANK 298.35 5.65 1.93 149832.07 39.62
HDFC BANK 1867.00 13.80 0.74 210795.90 32.73
BHARTI AIRTEL 419.55 17.60 4.38 44847.83 29.73

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 33,807.97 +500.83 +1.50
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,844.70 +160.93 +1.51
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,827.95 +65.34 +0.20
 
S&P BSE 100 10,715.69 +137.90 +1.30
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,535.54 +46.92 +1.34


(Source: BSE)
IPO WATCH Bharat Dynamics Limited

Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) is a wholly-owned government company having a Mini-ratna (Category-1) status conferred by the Department of Public Enterprises. BDL is engaged in the manufacturing of Surface to Air missiles (SAMs), Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs), underwater weapons, launchers, countermeasures and test equipment primarily catering to the Indian armed forces.

As of 31 Jan’18, BDL’s order book stands at Rs10,543 crore (2.2x FY17 revenue). Government’s focus on the defence sector with the introduction of favourable policies (New Defence Procurement Policy (DPP) 2016, FDI, Make in India), is likely to open many opportunities for BDL. Going forward the company is looking at focussing on R&D, enhancing its product portfolio, setting up 2 more manufacturing facilities (at Ibrahimpatnam and Amravati) and exploring international markets

(Source: Centrum Broking)
CCD: Founder quits MTCL board to focus on coffee business
 
This is a good development for Coffee Day Enterprises (CCD). Reportedly, CCD founder V G Siddhartha has quite the board of Mindtree Ltd (MTCL), a mid-sized software company based in Bangalore and stated that he wishes to focus more on his coffee business. CCD and its subsidiary Coffee Day Trading collectively hold 16.55% in MTCL which is valued at Rs 22 billion as per the latest market capitalization of MTCL. V G Siddhartha owns an additional 3.36% in MTCL. CCD and V G Siddhartha bought shares in MTCL in 2011-12 from its founding Chairman Ashok Soota when he left the company (then company market cap was Rs 24 billion). 

Market rumors suggest that this may be a precursor to stake sale in MTCL by CCD and its founder. It could be a big positive in that case because it will sharply reduce the current net debt of CCD which stands at Rs 28 billion. Recently, V G Siddhartha family bought nearly 2.5% stake in CCD (held 51.3% prior to that) at market price when PE investor KKR sold. We like CCD due to its cafe business which is a market leader in India and solid investments. The stock is undervalued based on SOTP. We maintain BUY and target pirce of Rs 400.

(Source: Maybank report)
Motilal Oswal Research on S H Kelkar

Fire in BASF’s German chemical plant, China resorting to factory shutdowns in a move to regulate environmental laws, and floods in the US have caused several supply-side disruptions for flavors and fragrances (F&F) players like S H Kelkar (SHKL), with sourcing of raw materials like orange oil, citral and Isoprenol being severely affected. BASF alone accounts for 20-25% of SHKL’s RM requirements.

While SHKL maintains a large stock of inventory, severe supply constraints could exert pressure on margins over the next 2-3 quarters. We, however, believe that margin compression will be partly offset by the shifting of production from the Netherlands facility to Vapi (likely to be completed by July/August 2018). We cut our FY19 EBIDTA estimate by 7% and PAT estimate by 8%
 
Markets continue to trade firm. Nifty above 10,300 levels. PSU Banks dip. Bharti Airtel, ITC, Vedanta, HCL Technologies, Tata Motors among top gainers


SPECIAL REPORT India's equity market-cap to hit $6.1 trillion by 2027: Morgan Stanley

Market-capitalisation (market-cap) of Indian equities is likely to hit $6.1 trillion by 2027, up from $2.3 trillion in 2017, predicts Morgan Stanley in its recent Asian equity Strategy Report titled: Asia’s Financial Acceleration – Moving Centre Stage READ MORE

Photo: Shutterstock
NEWS IMPACT Eicher shuts down its loss-making personal utility vehicle business

Eicher Motors, the maker of Royal Enfield motorcycles, has decided to shut down with immediate effect the personal utility vehicle division that it had set up as an equal joint venture with American firm Polaris. The company had invested in the venture an amount of Rs 2.9 billion, which will now be written down. The joint venture incurred a loss of Rs 0.91 billion in FY17 READ MORE



Kotak Securities on Petronet LNG
 
We believe Petronet's earnings will continue to rise over the next 2-3 years, driven by higher volumes from Dahej LNG regasification terminal and a higher operating rate of the currently stranded Kochi terminal. Construction of the pipeline to evacuate gas from Kochi is progressing well. PLNG is eyeing to invest in the overseas LNG market which will help him in geographical diversification and further expansion.
 
We expect PLNG to report an EPS of Rs.14.0 for FY18E, an EPS of Rs.14.8 for FY19E and an EPS of Rs.16.5 for FY20E. At CMP, we believe that the stock is attractively valued at 14.2x FY20E earnings. We maintain BUY on the stock with a revised price target of Rs.276/- (earlier Rs.285) including equity value of 26% stake in Dahej Port. Given that most of the capacity at Dahej is tied-up, there is strong visibility on the free cash flow.
Chana futures down 2.10% on tepid demand
 
Chana prices slipped 2.10 per cent to Rs 3,721 per quintal in futures trade today as participants reduced exposure following subdued demand at the spot market. READ MORE
USL faces headwind as concerns over GST on extra neutral alcohol remain

The United Spirits stock was trading five per cent higher on bourses in early trade on Monday, as the good and services tax (GST) Council did not take up the issue of including extra neutral alcohol (ENA) under the GST regime. Before Monday’s uptick, the stock had declined about 10 per cent over the past couple of weeks over concerns that ENA, a key raw material for liquor makers, might be included in GST. READ MORE
Sharekhan on Godrej Agrovet
 
The stock price of Godrej Agrovet moved up by 14% in last one month despite the volatile market conditions. Despite a strong run, the stock has not lost its charm and continues to be one of the preferred picks to play the agri (agri inputs, agro/dairy products) sector growth story. We retain our positive view on the stock and expect further upside of 10-12% with rollover of valuations to FY2020 estimates.
 
Sectoral Trend


Shrimp exporting companies fall up to 8% after US hikes anti-dumping duty

Shares of companies engaged in shrimp production business have dipped by up to 8% on the BSE in intra-day trade after the United States, the largest market for Indian seafood, hiked anti-dumping duty on Indian shrimp exports to 2.34% from earlier 0.84%. READ MORE

L&T construction to build Dwarka expressway; bags orders worth Rs 26 bn

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) on Monday said its construction arm has won orders worth Rs 25.97 billion across business segments. L&T, in a BSE filing, said its transportation infrastructure business has secured an order worth Rs 10.47 billion. READ MORE

Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 33,626.92 0.96%
 
Nifty 50 10,326.90 0.98%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,492.63 0.70%
 
Nifty 500 9,042.80 0.63%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 15,985.67 -0.01%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,296.03 -0.06%

Asia's equity market cap will overtake US in a decade: Morgan Stanley
 
Our modeling projects that Asia's total market capitalisation will double to US$56trn by 2027. Asia will overtake North America (US & Canada) as the largest equity market region as it generates over half of the world's growth in market cap. This equates to compound market cap growth of 6.5% per annum, versus nominal GDP growth of 6.0%, with market cap to GDP rising from 113% currently to 118%. 
 
On this same basis, North America, Europe and the Other Non-Asian G20 regions would see average growth of 3.2-3.4% over the next decade. As a result, Asia is projected to generate 56% of global market cap growth, followed by North America (29%) and Europe (11%). Asia would overtake North America as the world's largest equity market region by 2027, and would be almost three times larger than Europe, on our estimates.

 

Sector Watch: Cement
 
All-India cement prices saw a decline of Rs 9/bag in March 2018, despite (1) easing of the ban on sand mining in South and (2) being in the middle of the busy construction season. With all-India cement prices (`322/bag in March 2018) reaching levels similar a year ago, and rising cost pressures, we expect cement earnings to trend weak in 4QFY18, but for a favorable volume base.
 
(Source: Kotak Institutional Equities report)
Aarti Drugs falls 6% as Tarapur unit impacted by explosion

Shares of Aarti Drugs has dipped 6% to Rs 528 on the BSE in otherwise firm market after the pharmaceuticals company said that its unit in Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation (MIDC) Tarapur has got affected by a massive explosion at the adjoining unit of Novaphene Specialties Private limited. READ MORE
 
Sugar firms stare at losses, with estimate of record output, after 2 years

It has taken only one announcement to change the outlook for sugar companies. The forecast of a 13 per cent increase in production, compared to previous estimates, has panicked the market, eroding prices of the commodity and the stock price of manufacturers. In sum, after a year of record profit and a second reasonably good one, top sugar companies again seem on the verge of an extended downturn. And, given the current environment in banking, a number of companies might not be able to swim through. READ MORE

Passenger vehicle sales up 7% in Feb; motorcycle sales jump 26%: SIAM

Domestic passenger vehicle sales rose 7.77 per cent to 275,329 units in February from 255,470 units in February 2017. Domestic car sales were up 3.7 per cent to 179,122 units as against 172,737 units in February 2017, according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Motorcycle sales last month rose 26.48 per cent to 1,053,230 units as against 832,695 units a year earlier. READ MORE
Maruti Suzuki Dzire

Nifty PSU Bank hits fresh 19-month low; 8 banks hit respective 5-year lows

Shares of public sector undertaking (PSU) banks continued to be under pressure with the Nifty PSU Bank index hitting a fresh 19-month low as banking stocks once again succumbed to heavy selling pressure in the wake of reports that Union Bank of India has direct credit exposure of about Rs 1.20 billion to companies controlled by jeweler Nirav Modi, and another Rs 1.75 billion to Gitanjali group of companies. READ MORE
MARKET COMMENT (Source: IFA Global)

The overall risk sentiment is positive post Friday's US employment data. Though the headline NFP number beat expectations, tepid growth in average hourly wages led to a USD sell off. Equities and commodities too rallied. However, the reaction in US rates was muted with 10y yield largely unchanged. Asian currencies are trading 0.1-0.5% stronger against USD. Likely range 64.90-65.17. SGX is pointing towards a 1% higher opening for the Nifty. Most Asian stock indices are trading with healthy gains of around 1% in early Asia.

US CPI and retail sales major data are due this week. FPIs sold net usd 277mn in debt and bought 178mn in equity on Thursday. Exporters are advised to cover partially long term exports above 65.10 levels and keep a stoploss of 64.80 for further bookings. Importers are advised to cover their imports till April in the range of 64.80-65.00.
Sector Watch: Automobiles
 
The strength in domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) volumes continues to surprise positively. February 2018 volumes grew 22% YoY to 37K units (base of +5% YoY in Feb-17). YTD growth for the industry stands at 12% YoY. We are increasing our industry forecasts and now forecast FY18 growth at 11% (vs. +6% earlier). Our FY19/20 forecast is at +13%/+8%.
 
(Source: Deutsche Bank)
Crypto bubble bursts, but blockchain will survive even if bitcoin doesn't

We’re now awash in “crypto” hype—cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and fundraising efforts like initial coin offerings. For every venture capitalist or technical expert, there’s a half-dozen hype men and fly-by-night startups making the entire space look like a 21st-century version of the Amsterdam tulip mania. READ MORE
Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 33,595.68 0.87%
 
Nifty 50 10,324.55 0.96%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,490.59 0.65%
 
Nifty 500 9,047.15 0.68%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 15,996.62 0.06%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,350.97 0.26%

BSE Smallcap: Jaiprakash Power Ventures, PG Electroplast among gainers, Andhra Bank top loser


Reliance Securities on Federal Bank

The Bank is expected to deliver further improvement in operational performance led by improving loan book growth and improving assets liability mix. Advances grew by 5.3% QoQ to Rs850bn in 3QFY18, as SME, Wholesale and Retail (including Agri) book grew by 13.3%, 4.4% and 6.85% QoQrespectively.

We expect the Bank’s earnings to witness 33% CAGR through FY17-20E and reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with an Target Price of Rs150 based on 2.3x FY19E Adjusted book value.

Here are top 10 stocks with highest average dividend yield for past 5 years

India Inc pays the highest dividend in the last quarter of a financial year. With less than three weeks for this fiscal year to end, a slew of companies are expected to dole out dividends to investors. READ MORE
Kotak Institutional Equities on Hindalco
 
We maintain BUY rating with unchanged target price of Rs 315. The indirect risk of US aluminum import tariff on Hindalco’s earnings could be lower aluminum prices. However, we believe aluminum production from the US can increase by only 600-700 kt, due to restarts, which is close to 0.9% of the global demand. We believe lower China supplies from end of CY2018/CY2019 can set the tone for a strong outlook over the next 2-3 years.
 
TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO SENSEX GAINS TODAY (As at 10:53am)

COMPANY LATEST CHG(RS) CHG(%) FREE FLOAT
MKT CAP
(RS CR)
CONTRIBUTION
(POINTS)
ITC 266.60 7.20 2.78 261575.10 67.03
INFOSYS 1190.10 26.70 2.29 218668.11 61.89
H D F C 1845.00 26.55 1.46 193778.42 48.58
HDFC BANK 1864.30 11.10 0.60 210795.90 25.29
TCS 3074.70 40.20 1.32 124249.74 23.75
ICICI BANK 296.20 3.50 1.20 149832.07 23.58

TOP GAINERS ON BSE TODAY

COMPANY PRICE() CHG() CHG(%) VOLUME
KRBL 475.25 36.25 8.26 17343
NETWRK.18 MEDIA 52.50 2.85 5.74 104778
VAKRANGEE 205.45 9.75 4.98 225541
JP ASSOCIATES 14.60 0.65 4.66 2540735
MPHASIS 861.00 36.90 4.48 6308

Deutsche Bank values asset management at up to 7.2 billion euros in IPO

Deutsche Bank set the price range for the planned initial public offering of its asset management unit on Sunday, valuing the division at up to 7.2 billion euros ($8.86 billion). In what is expected to be one of Germany's biggest listings this year, Deutsche Bank plans to sell up to 25 percent of the business, or a maximum of 50 million shares at a price range of between 30 euros and 36 euros each, it said on Sunday. READ MORE
IT shares in focus; Tech Mahindra, Mastek hits fresh 52-week high

Mindtree, Hexaware Technologies, Sonata Software, Mastek and Zen Technologies have rallied more than 10% in past one month against 2% decline in Nifty 50 index CLICK HERE FOR MORE
IPO Watch: Bharat Dynamics

As per Frost and Sullivan (F&S), domestic opportunity for guided missiles and torpedoes over the next 10 years stand at US$24.5bn. BDL’s product offerings are capable to cash in on 53.5% of this opportunity. The company is also expanding its export presence to lower its dependence on the Indian market. We believe large orders in the missile space would be back-ended and would start contributing to revenues from FY21. At the upper band, the issue is valued 16x FY17 P/E. Earnings are expected to decline on account of lower other income and lower revenue growth. We foresee no near-term triggers in the stock and valuations appear fair. Investors adopting a long-term view on the growing opportunities emanating from massive spends in the defence space can subscribe

(Source: IIFL)
Time for deep correction? We can see 50% being chopped off peak prices

During the latter stages of a bull run, just before a big crash, you’ll hear many people insisting ‘This time it’s different’. Those words should act like a morning alarm. They indicate an attitude of over-confidence that leads to excessive risk taking. Investors who have received big returns over a long period tend to be over-confident. READ MORE
Sector Watch: Energy
 
As in the past few months, India's oil demand rose a robust 7.7% y/y or 0.3mbpd in Feb18. Stripped off strong demand in petcoke and others, prone to revisions, growth was more moderate at 5%, however, with the soft-year ago base helping too. The 2-yr CAGR is just 3%, e.g., with diesel sluggish. Nonetheless, margins are more important for downstream SOEs where 4QFY18 appears strong helped by the recovery in auto fuel margins. We prefer IOCL and like ONGC too.
 
(Source: Jefferies)
BSE Midcap: Vakrangee, Mphasis among top gainers, Central Bank top loser


Andhra Bank hits 14-yr low as ED files chargesheet against ex-bank official

Shares of Andhra Bank hit almost 14-year low to Rs 33.60, falling 13% on the BSE in early morning trade, after the media report suggested that the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Friday filed a chargesheet against a former director of the state-owned bank in an alleged Rs 50 billion bank fraud case involving a Gujarat-based pharma firm. The stock is trading at its lowest since May 17, 2004, when it touched Rs 30 during intra-day trade. READ MORE
Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 33,627.02 0.96%
 
Nifty 50 10,324.20 0.95%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,502.98 0.93%
 
Nifty 500 9,060.05 0.82%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,112.71 0.78%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,418.11 0.65%

PNB scam: Are public sector banks good contra bets in Indian markets?

The Nirav Modi scandal at Punjab National Bank (PNB) has shaken investors' faith in the banking sector, raising serious issues about the governance standards at public sector banks (PSBs). Many PSB stocks have taken huge hits. However, as the long-term track record of the Nifty Bank index and banking sector funds shows, investors who continue to repose faith in the sector could be richly rewarded over the long term. READ MORE
AC stocks: Voltas, Blue Star to see growth momentum, Havells is a key pick

The manufacturers of air-conditioners (ACs) and air coolers are expected to have a dream run on the bourses following a surge in demand with temperatures set to be higher this summer season. The Met office has warned of above-normal temperature in North India and in other parts of the country. READ MORE
Bandhan Bank IPO: Short-term investors can easily avoid this 'tie-up'

On fundamentals, the prospects for Bandhan Bank (Bandhan), which is coming out with its initial public offering (IPO) on March 15, remain robust -- it has a strong asset quality, high profitability as well as growth rates. However, the asking rate is on the higher side, say most analysts, who believe that there is nothing left on the table from the short-term perspective. Moreover, some analysts are also sceptical of Bandhan's short stint of 3-4 years as a bank. READ MORE
Market Trend (Image source: NSE)


BSE Sensex gainers and losers


PSU Banks trade weak. Andhra Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, IDBI lose ground (Image source: NSE)



Index watch

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 33,555.92 +248.78 +0.75
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,772.33 +88.56 +0.83
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 33,004.99 +242.38 +0.74
 
S&P BSE 100 10,664.01 +86.22 +0.82
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,515.82 +27.20 +0.78

(Source: BSE)
Market at open
 
At 9:17 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 33,587, up 280 points while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 10,316, up 89 points.
STOCKS IN NEWS

Trident Ltd has proposed expansion plans in the State of Madhya Pradesh with the total capital outlay in the tune of Rs 7200 crore in phased manner:
 

 
CCI approved the acquisition of Reliance Communication’s towers, optic fibre cable, right to use spectrum and media convergence nodes by Reliance Jio.

Bhushan Steel clarified that Chairman BB Singhal appeared before SFIO on March 8.

Dolphin Offshore Enterprises bagged order worth Rs 6.75 crore from RAL, Malaysia.

Power Grid won contract to establish transmission system for “New WR-NR 765 kV Inter-Regional Corridor”.

Bharat Wire Ropes seeks to raise Rs 50 crore via equity or debt.

Bharti Airtel received NCLT approval for merger of Telenor with self.

ARSS Infrastructure bagged work order worth Rs 15.44 crore.

Amber Enterprises to acquire 70 % in Ever Electronics.

MOIL approved the setting up ferro alloy plants at Balaghat and Gumgaon for Rs 418.8 crore.

Peninsula Land to acquire additional 6.4 % stake in Hem Infra for Rs 13.79 crore.

Aarti Drugs said that its unit in Tarapur MIDC got affected by explosion. The affected plant contributed about 16 % to the company's total revenue as of Dec. 31.

ONGC to sell stake in Gujarat Petrochem project to fund HPCL acquisition.

Arvind promoter Aura Securities pledged 42.50 lakh shares, or 1.64 % stake in favor of Bajaj Finance against loan to be availed.

Avanti Feeds, Apex Frozen Foods, Waterbase: U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested a hike in anti-dumping duty on Indian shrimp to 2.34 %from 0.84%. Indian shrimp exporters subject to new rates.

Consortium of Jet Airways, France-KLM and Delta is understood to have expressed interest in national carrier Air India (PTI).

Spice Jet signed deal with CFM International for $12.5bn for purchase of LEAP -1B engine order for 155 737 MAX airplanes.Add on long term service agreement

Goa Carbon Revoked suspension for 3 months at Goa plant for manufacturing of upto 20,000 mt of CPC

DHFL proposes to issue NCDs worth Rs 500 cr with an additional Rs 250 cr of greenshoe option

NTPC may buy Bihar State Power Holding Co for Rs 3000cr

(Source: Nirmal Bang)

Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 33,384.67 +77.53 +0.23
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,706.91 +23.14 +0.22
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,816.16 +53.55 +0.16
 
S&P BSE 100 10,600.25 +22.46 +0.21
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,493.09 +4.47 +0.13

(Source: BSE)
INTERVIEW OF THE DAY Market returns will be interplay of profit growth, PE ratio: Rana B Gupta

Global markets corrected last week after US President Donald Trump proposed to raise tariffs. RANA B GUPTA, managing director, India Equities at Manulife Asset Management (Singapore), in a conversation with Puneet Wadhwa said one needs to monitor whether this situation escalates to more protectionist measures and retaliation from trading partners. India, he feels, remains a unique, bottom-up story. READ MORE


RANA B GUPTA Managing director, India Equities Manulife Asset Management (Singapore)

Street signs: CIL sees investor churn, big investors buy Himadri, and more

Coal India sees investor churn: The strong gains in the Coal India stock in 2018 has been accompanied by domestic institutions increasing their exposure in the counter. Coal India has gained 16.2 per cent in the year so far – the most among the Sensex companies. This rally has seen three big-ticket institutions – ICICI Prudential, Aditya Birla Sun Life and HDFC Mutual Fund – up their stake in the coal producer. Interestingly, leading foreign investor, BlackRock has sold close to 10 million shares of Coal India in March. This investor churn is expected to continue in the medium term, even as analysts are expecting another 10 per cent upside in the stock over the next one year. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE

Nifty50 can dip below 10,000 mark soon: Angel Broking

The week turned out to be a decider as we saw Nifty finally coming out of the recent congestion zone. In fact, we had clearly stated in our previous article that we would see this suspense getting unfolded in the first half. In-line with expectation, the index made things clear on Tuesday after violating the 10,300 mark. Some respite in last couple of sessions led to a weekly close well below this key point. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
IIP, inflation data to steer stock market sentiment in the week ahead

Trading sentiment in the stock market this week will be guided by key macroeconomic data like Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and inflation, experts said. READ MORE
Nifty outlook and key trading ideas by Devang Shah

The market managed to hold lower end support levels as mentioned in last week & started to pull back rally after expiry today as expected. It managed to find support near 10,300 levels on Nifty. It made a low of 10,276 levels so far on Nifty in this correction. We can expect the market to pull back towards target 1-10,600-10,680 levels on Nifty in short-term & in extreme levels if it is, then it can stretch till target 2-10,830 levels on Nifty in this pullback rally. The trader should use this pullback rally to sell or exit till short-term reverses.

The short-term outlook for the market remains negative till Nifty trades below 11,172 levels and expecting a target of 10,000-9,800 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12,000-12,200 levels in the medium term.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE

Markets on Friday

 
S&P BSE Sensex 33,307.14 -0.13%
 
Nifty 50 10,226.85 -0.15%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,461.56 -0.13%
 
Nifty 500 8,986.40 -0.16%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 15,987.27 -0.35%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,305.92 -0.30%

Buy BASF, M&M, L&T Finance Holdings: Prabhudas Lilladher

BUY L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS
CMP : 160
TARGET : 178
STOP LOSS : 153

 
The stock has taken support at 155 on twice occasions thus making a double bottom formation like pattern in the daily chart and with the promising cues from the indicators, we anticipate a upward rise from here on to scale till 175-180 levels in the coming days. The RSI has indicated a trend reversal signaling a buy and with the MACD also in the positive mode, the chart looks attractive and promising. With good volume activity seen, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 178 keeping a stop loss of 153.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
IPO WATCH Bharat Dynamics Limited
 
Date of Opening Issue: March 13, 2018
Date of Closing Issue: March 15, 2018
Issue size: Rs. 919.11 - 952.79 crore
Bid lot size:35 shares and in multiples there-off 
Price band: Rs.413 – 428 per share
Face value: Rs.10

At the price band of Rs. 413- 428 per share, the issue is priced at 10.3-10.7 times P/E for FY2017 earnings, which seems to be attractively priced, as its only peer (to an extent) i.e. Bharat Electronics Ltd is currently trading at a P/E of 23 times FY2017 earnings.

(Source: Sharekhan report)
Nifty outlook by Prabhudas Lilladher
 
After Nifty saw a support at 10,141 levels, a pullback recovery took it near to the level of 10,300 which was short-lived with bears again taking charge of the bulls. As said earlier, the level of 10,140 would be crucial which if broken can see fresh downfall upto 10,000 mark and thereafter 9,800-9,700 levels. However, the support for the week is seen at 9,980 while the resistance is seen at 10,450.
Sharekhan on Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals

We retain our positive view on the stock of Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd (CGCEL). 15-20% returns expected from current levels. Recent stock price correction of 18% from January provides good point of entry. Premiumisation strategy along with brand awareness and new product launches puts CGCEL at a vantage position. We expect CGCEL to deliver 28% CAGR earnings growth from FY2018E-FY2020E.
MARKET COMMENT Sanjeev Zarbade, Vice-president-PCG Research at Kotak Securities

The BSE-30 Index dropped over 2.0% to close at 33,307 as the markets saw risk aversion amid weak global cues on prospects of trade wars as well as weak GST collections. Tata Motors (-7%), Bharti Airtel (-6%) and Tata Steel(-5%) were the biggest losers in the BSE-30 Index. Sector-wise, metals (-6%), healthcare (-4%) and capital goods (-3%) were the largest losers. In Friday’s trading, the Sensex reversed some of previous day's gains amid sell-off in last hour of trade.
 
In this next week, the government will release the IIP and CPI data, which will give a sense of the economic recovery and trend in inflation, respectively. In this, inflation would be something that would be critical as its further hardening could trigger fears of rate hikes. On the global front, President Trump’s rhetoric on trade protectionism could weigh on markets. On the other hand, any move by the Trump towards reconciliation with North Korea could be taken positively.
 
The recent fall in mid-cap stocks provides a good opportunity for investors to pick stocks. We advise investors to select stocks with strong management quality, robust earnings growth and reasonable valuations
SGX Nifty

The SGX Nifty was trading at 10,347.50, up 1.29% from the previous close.
Asian Markets

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 1.1 per cent, for a third session of gains, while Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.5 per cent.
Wall Street

The Dow jumped 1.77 per cent on Friday, while the S&P 500 gained 1.74 per cent and the Nasdaq 1.79 per cent.
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