Nifty down nearly 1% but holds 10,600; Sensex ends over 300 pts lower

Photo: Shutterstock.com
Benchmark indices were trading in negative on investor caution that Union Budget could push up inflation and prompt the central bank to raise interest rates soon.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, delivering his last full annual budget before a general election to be held by May next year, raised government spending for rural areas and support to farmers, while slowing the pace of fiscal consolidation.

A cautious stance at the RBI would increase the probability of interest rate increases in the coming fiscal year. 

Globally, Asian shares fell the most in over a year on Monday as fears of resurgent inflation battered bonds, toppled Wall Street from record highs and sparked speculation that central banks globally might be forced to tighten policy more aggressively.

4:09 PM IST Tata Motors Q3 rises about 13-fold on higher JLR sales at Rs 12 bn   Tata Motors Ltd reported about a 13-fold rise in quarterly profit on Monday, driven by higher sales from its Jaguar Land Rover business after a particularly weak quarter a year earlier. READ MORE

3:36 PM IST Sectoral Trends

3:35 PM IST Sensex top gainers and losers

3:33 PM IST Markets at close Benchmark indices fell for a fifth straight session on Monday, with the broader NSE index hitting its lowest in a month, as Asian shares slumped, while worries remained that the Reserve Bank of India would turn more hawkish at its policy meeting later this week.   The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,757, down 309 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,666, down 94 points.

3:20 PM IST Boost non-tax revenue: Further fiscal slippage to dent Budget's credibility   In the run-up to the Union Budget, the primary concern for most observers was the state of the fiscal health. Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley did little to allay the apprehensions as he announced a slippage of 30 basis points (bps) in the fiscal deficit for FY18.   Worse, the fiscal deficit for the next year has been targeted at 3.3%, which is quite a distance from Mr Jaitley’s initial promise in 2014 to achieve the 3 per cent mark in three years. He has now postponed getting to 3% to 2020-21. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY

3:10 PM IST Indirect Tax: Budget on customs could have been more positive   The indirect tax Budget of 2018-19 was not expected to devote any time to GST. So the officers had all the time to achieve a meaningful improvement in the customs tariff. Only the sufferers know that the customs tariff has got 19 rates of duty. Then there are hundreds of exemptions and conditions and lists which make customs duty classifications quite complicated. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY

3:00 PM IST India 'might' achieve 3% fiscal deficit target by 2019-20: Finance ministry official   India 'might actually' be able to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of the GDP by 2019-20, a finance ministry official said on Monday, a year ahead of a stated goal of the government announced last week in the Union Budget. READ MORE

2:45 PM IST Corporate governance issues: No respite for Vakrangee; stock down by half   The Vakrangee stock has shed 53% over the past 10 days, including 10% in trade on Monday on corporate governance issues. The company was reportedly being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for price and volume manipulation in the first half of 2017. The company has, however, indicated that the news is baseless and factually incorrect and they had not received any official communications from the regulator or the exchanges.   PC Jeweller also has slipped in a similar way before recovering and is now down 26% over the past week on the back of its links with Vakrangee. Vakrangee had invested Rs 1.12 billion out of its total treasury fund of about Rs 15 billion in PC Jeweller on January 25. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY

2:33 PM IST NEWS IMPACT: Sugar stocks rise 3-6% as food ministry proposes hike in import duty Sugar stocks, such as KCP Sugar, Dhampur Sugar, Simbhaoli Sugar, are trading 3-6% higher on the BSE on reports that the food ministry has proposed doubling of the import duty on sugar to 100% to curb cheaper imports, check falling wholesale prices of sweetener and ensure timely payment to cane farmers  

2:27 PM IST Food ministry proposes hike in sugar import duty to 100%    The food ministry has proposed doubling of the import duty on sugar to 100% to curb cheaper imports, check falling wholesale prices of sweetener and ensure timely payment to cane farmers, sources said.   Wholesale prices have fallen below the cost of production in view of estimated 6 million tonnes more production in the 2017-18 season (October-September). In retail market, sugar is being sold at Rs 40-42/kg.   According to the sources, a recommendation has been made to the finance ministry that import duty on sugar be raised from the current 50% to 100% to protect domestic sugarcane farmers. (Source:PTI)

2:24 PM IST Strong India sales help Suzuki Motor post 68% rise in Q3 profit   Japan's Suzuki Motor Corp on Monday announced a 68% jump in operating profit in the third quarter due to ongoing growth in automobile and motorcycle sales in India, its biggest market, as well as in Europe and at home.   Operating profit at Japan's No 4 automaker came in at 86.9 billion yen ($790.36 million) in October-December, jumping from 51.85 billion yen a year earlier and exceeding a median forecast of 77.49 billion yen from nine analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. READ MORE

2:15 PM IST Market Check S&P BSE Sensex 34,627.15 -1.25%   Nifty 50 10,641.55 -1.11%   S&P BSE 200 4,624.40 -1.11%   Nifty 500 9,303.65 -1.13%   S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,419.44 -0.94%   S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,642.83 -1.15%

LIVE UPDATES

Tata Motors Q3 rises about 13-fold on higher JLR sales at Rs 12 bn
 
Tata Motors Ltd reported about a 13-fold rise in quarterly profit on Monday, driven by higher sales from its Jaguar Land Rover business after a particularly weak quarter a year earlier. READ MORE
Sectoral Trends



Sensex top gainers and losers


Markets at close

Benchmark indices fell for a fifth straight session on Monday, with the broader NSE index hitting its lowest in a month, as Asian shares slumped, while worries remained that the Reserve Bank of India would turn more hawkish at its policy meeting later this week.
 
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 34,757, down 309 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,666, down 94 points.
Boost non-tax revenue: Further fiscal slippage to dent Budget's credibility
 
In the run-up to the Union Budget, the primary concern for most observers was the state of the fiscal health. Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley did little to allay the apprehensions as he announced a slippage of 30 basis points (bps) in the fiscal deficit for FY18.
 
Worse, the fiscal deficit for the next year has been targeted at 3.3%, which is quite a distance from Mr Jaitley’s initial promise in 2014 to achieve the 3 per cent mark in three years. He has now postponed getting to 3% to 2020-21. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY
Indirect Tax: Budget on customs could have been more positive
 
The indirect tax Budget of 2018-19 was not expected to devote any time to GST. So the officers had all the time to achieve a meaningful improvement in the customs tariff. Only the sufferers know that the customs tariff has got 19 rates of duty. Then there are hundreds of exemptions and conditions and lists which make customs duty classifications quite complicated. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY
India 'might' achieve 3% fiscal deficit target by 2019-20: Finance ministry official
 
India 'might actually' be able to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of the GDP by 2019-20, a finance ministry official said on Monday, a year ahead of a stated goal of the government announced last week in the Union Budget. READ MORE
Corporate governance issues: No respite for Vakrangee; stock down by half
 
The Vakrangee stock has shed 53% over the past 10 days, including 10% in trade on Monday on corporate governance issues. The company was reportedly being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for price and volume manipulation in the first half of 2017. The company has, however, indicated that the news is baseless and factually incorrect and they had not received any official communications from the regulator or the exchanges.
 
PC Jeweller also has slipped in a similar way before recovering and is now down 26% over the past week on the back of its links with Vakrangee. Vakrangee had invested Rs 1.12 billion out of its total treasury fund of about Rs 15 billion in PC Jeweller on January 25. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY
NEWS IMPACT: Sugar stocks rise 3-6% as food ministry proposes hike in import duty

Sugar stocks, such as KCP Sugar, Dhampur Sugar, Simbhaoli Sugar, are trading 3-6% higher on the BSE on reports that the food ministry has proposed doubling of the import duty on sugar to 100% to curb cheaper imports, check falling wholesale prices of sweetener and ensure timely payment to cane farmers
 
Food ministry proposes hike in sugar import duty to 100% 
 
The food ministry has proposed doubling of the import duty on sugar to 100% to curb cheaper imports, check falling wholesale prices of sweetener and ensure timely payment to cane farmers, sources said.
 
Wholesale prices have fallen below the cost of production in view of estimated 6 million tonnes more production in the 2017-18 season (October-September). In retail market, sugar is being sold at Rs 40-42/kg.
 
According to the sources, a recommendation has been made to the finance ministry that import duty on sugar be raised from the current 50% to 100% to protect domestic sugarcane farmers.

(Source:PTI)
Strong India sales help Suzuki Motor post 68% rise in Q3 profit
 
Japan's Suzuki Motor Corp on Monday announced a 68% jump in operating profit in the third quarter due to ongoing growth in automobile and motorcycle sales in India, its biggest market, as well as in Europe and at home.
 
Operating profit at Japan's No 4 automaker came in at 86.9 billion yen ($790.36 million) in October-December, jumping from 51.85 billion yen a year earlier and exceeding a median forecast of 77.49 billion yen from nine analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. READ MORE
Market Check

S&P BSE Sensex 34,627.15 -1.25%
 
Nifty 50 10,641.55 -1.11%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,624.40 -1.11%
 
Nifty 500 9,303.65 -1.13%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,419.44 -0.94%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,642.83 -1.15%

Budget 2018: No material impact of slippage in fiscal deficit, says Moody's
 
The Budget for 2018-19 strikes a balance between fiscal prudence and growth, and a "slight" slippage in fiscal deficit has no material impact on overall economic strength. READ MORE
 

United Breweries hits record high post Q3 results
 
United Breweries (UBL) hit a record high of Rs 1,243, up 9.5% on BSE in intra-day trade, after the company said on a year to date basis, volume grew 6% compared with industry growth of 3%.
 
The company gained market share in its important markets including Rajasthan, Karnataka, Orissa and West Bengal. READ MORE
 

Smooth road ahead for Ashok Leyland; strong growth to drive earnings faster
 
The steps taken by Ashok Leyland (ALL) over the past few years, along with an improving industrial climate, are helping the company gain ground in its business and improve its financials. The quarter ended December 2017 (Q3) is evidence of that.
 
And the company’s management and analysts say the situation will be better. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY
Sectoral Trend



BofAML on economy
 
RBI MPC will persist with slightly hawkish pause, from Feb, on Wed. We see 25bp RBI rate cut in Aug if rains are normal. Onion prices are falling after tomatoes. This supports our inflation-is-peaking call. We track Jan inflation at 5%
 
(Source: BofAML report)
Goldman Sachs on Budget 2018
 
The central government has outlined a fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP in FY19 versus a revised estimate of 3.5% in FY18 (previously 3.2%). This represents some fiscal consolidation, albeit at a slower pace compared to the FRBM recommended medium-term path. Although the budgeted deficit is in line with our expectations, we think the revenue targets are on the optimistic side and we see risks of fiscal slippage unless economic activities formalize at a rapid pace. 

Spending priorities in the budget are tilted towards the rural economy. We remain bearish INR longer-dated rates. Our equity analysts see the budget as positive for infrastructure, industrials, autos, financials, and healthcare, but negative for oil & gas.
 
(Source: Goldman Sachs report)
Budget 2018 strikes a balance between growth and fiscal prudence: Moody's
 
Global rating agency Moody’s on Monday said Budget 2018 had struck a balance between fiscal prudence and growth. A slight slippage in the Budget deficit targets was in line with expectations and would have no material impact on the country's overall fiscal strength, Moody's added.
 
In the Budget, the central government revised its 2018-19 projections for the fiscal deficit to 3.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from the original target of 3 per cent. It also revised its estimate for 2017-18 to 3.5 per cent of GDP, compared with the original target of 3.2 per cent. READ MORE
 
Multiple factors to keep markets on tenterhooks after Friday's fall
 
Market players are worried about the direction the stock markets will take this week, following Friday’s bloodbath in US equities and the correction in bond prices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury note touched a four-year high as fears of inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve spooked investors. READ MORE
EXPERT'S TAKE ON MARKETS

Markets will consolidate over next 6 months, says Jyotivardhan Jaipuria of Veda Investment Managers in this exclusive interview READ MORE

Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, founder and managing director, Veda Investment Managers

US FED WATCH
 
Jerome Powell becomes Fed Reserve Chief as US economy begins to show strain CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL STORY
Five takeaways from Arun Jaitley's fifth Budget
 
The fifth Budget of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has already drawn huge attention for its ambitious health insurance scheme, a special minimum support price package for farmers, the imposition of the long-term capital gains tax on equity, an increase in the customs duty and surcharge on a host of imported goods and a substantially relaxed road map for fiscal consolidation READ MORE
LTCG shadow looms large over Tata group's plan to reduce cross-holdings
 
The long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax, proposed in the Union Budget 2018-19, will make it costly for the Tata group to consolidate promoter holdings in various listed companies owned by Tata Sons, the group’s holding company, from the next financial year, 2018-19 READ MORE

Tata Group

Nifty PSU Bank index recovers 3% from intra-day low
 
Shares of public sector banks were in focus with the Nifty PSU Bank index recovering more than 3% from its early morning low on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
 
Nifty PSU Bank was trading 0.41% higher at 3,507, bouncing back 3.1% from 3,401 levels recorded in intra-day trade today. The index hit high of 3,510 so far. READ MORE
 

Shakti Pumps extends gain after institutional buying
 
Shakti Pumps (India) has rallied 4% to Rs 551, extending its Friday’s 1% gain on BSE in otherwise weak market, on institutional buying.
 
On February 1, 2018 Portfolio Management Schemes of Old Bridge Capital Management bought 81,434 shares representing 0.43% stake in Shakti Pumps through open market. READ MORE
Market Check
S&P BSE Sensex 34,749.39 -0.91%
 
Nifty 50 10,666.60 -0.87%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,636.07 -0.86%
 
Nifty 500 9,325.25 -0.90%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,439.49 -0.82%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,644.83 -1.14%

CBDT says no inflation adjustment available for LTCG tax: Things to know
 
Amid adverse reactions coming from stock markets to the proposed long-term capital gains tax on securities, the income-tax department on Sunday clarified that price indexation (adjustment to inflation) will not be available for this tax. The tax comes into effect from April 1, 2018, the clarifications said.
 
Indian bond yields rise further on US cues
 
A strong US payrolls report on Friday raised concerns the Federal Reserve might hasten to increase interest rates to stem inflation, that pushed the yield to a four-year high CLICK HERE FOR MORE
Sensex slips over 1,000 points in 2 sessions: What investors should do now
 
Last Friday, the combined market cap of all BSE-listed companies fell by Rs 4.6 trillion to Rs 148.54 trillion from Rs 153.1 trillion on Thursday. In a matter of just eight trading days, the market cap of BSE stocks fell by over Rs 8 trillion from the peak value of Rs 156.56 trillion. This massive fall was mainly due to a very fast and large buildup in the base of the overall market cap in the last one year. READ MORE
NEWS IMPACT: Bharti Airtel gains 4% as Singtel plan to invest Rs 26.49 billion
 
Bharti Airtel gained 4% to Rs 439 on BSE after the company announced that Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel) will invest Rs 26.49 billion in Bharti Telecom through preferential allotment of shares. Bharti Telecom is the promoter company of Bharti Airtel.
 
The transaction is subject to the shareholders’ approval of Bharti Telecom. The funds raised will be used towards debt reduction, Bharti Airtel said in a press release. READ MORE
Sensex top gainers and losers


RBI Policy: Will the central bank cut rates?
 
We expect RBI to keep rates on hold and maintain its neutral policy stance at the February 7 meeting. At the previous MPC meeting, members of the MPC broadly conveyed that they recognized that inflation had risen in a broad-based manner and expressed concerns about the upside risks to the inflation outlook. 
 
At the same time, there was some confidence that the growth recovery would gather some momentum,although the members did express a need to watch the incoming data to ascertain the strength of the recovery.
 
(Source: Morgan Stanley)
Nomura maintains buy rating on Tata Motors
 
The stock is currently trading at 3.6x/2.9x FY19/20F EV/EBITDA, which we believe is reasonable. We value JLR based on 3x FY20F EBITDA (discounted to Nov-18) at INR438/sh. In this, we value the China JV at Rs 83/share, the standalone business at Rs 47/share (based on 8x FY20F EBITDA discounted to Nov-18) and other investments at around Rs 46/share. Thus, we arrive at our target price of Rs 531. Maintain Buy.
Nomura on Titan Company
 
Titan’s 3QFY18 results were marginally below our and the consensus expectations, which is a departure from the trend which has prevailed in the past 4-5 quarters. However, having said that, we believe that while growth was impacted due to one-off factors, the growth story remains intact from a medium-term perspective
Edelweiss on Oberoi Realty
 
Oberoi Realty (Oberoi) continued to post higher new sales in Q3FY18. New sales, at INR4.1bn, jumped 52% YoY and 15% QoQ and were driven by QoQ pick up in bookings at Worli and Exquisite projects. We believe, steady work progress in Worli and Borivali projects along with incremental leasing in Commerz II–Phase1 will boost the company’s prospects going ahead.  
 
Management expects to commence revenue recognition in the Borivali project in Q1FY19, Mulund projects in Q2/Q3FY19 and Worli project in H1FY19. Maintain ‘BUY’ with target price of INR559 as we roll over to FY20E
Union Bank reports Rs 12.5 bn loss in Dec quarter, asset quality weakens
 
Front-loading of provisions for the NCLT accounts led state-run Union Bank of India on Saturday reported a net loss of Rs 12.5 billion in the December quarter as against a net profit of Rs 1.04 billion a year ago.
 
In the September quarter also, the city-based lender had reported a massive Rs 15.31 billion losses.
 
The bank's bad loan provisions for the quarter jumped to Rs 25.21 billion from Rs 15.82 billion a year ago as its gross non-performing assets rose to 13.03% from 11.70%, and net NPAs inched up to 6.96% from 6.95%. READ MORE

Graphic: Earnings Impact (Union Bank of India)

 

Edelweiss on Gujarat Gas
 
We expect cyclical near-term volume revival as PNG remains economic versus other alternatives, while commissioning of new geographies (GAs) will meaningfully contribute from FY20. We, therefore, estimate 15% volume CAGR over FY17-22, driving 36% EPS CAGR. We have revised down DCF-based target price to Rs 1,068 (Rs 1,123 earlier), factoring in higher discount rate. However, we maintain 'BUY' on long-term sanguine prospects.
Monetary policy: RBI to pause for sure on Feb 7, but for how much longer?

The monetary policy announcement on February 7 will be one of the most critical ones in recent times for analysts because it will set the stage for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) course of action. The policy, coming a week after the Budget, could reverse the rate-cutting cycle for good and may hint at the central bank turning hawkish READ MORE

A woman walks past the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) head office in Mumbai | Photo: Reuters

Nikkei Services PMI

The seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index remained above the neutral mark of 50.0 in January, signalling a further increase in activity at the start of 2018. The latest figure of 51.7, up from 50.9 in December, signalled a faster expansion albeit one that remained below the long-run survey average. The Information & Communication sub-sector continued to drive overall growth in the latest period.
Vakrangee locked in lower circuit for fourth straight session
 
Vakrangee locked in lower circuit for the fourth straight trading sessions, down 10% at Rs 237 on BSE, despite the company clarifying that it has not received any communication from market regulator investigating an alleged share price and volume manipulation. The stock tanked 53% in past six trading days from Rs 505 on January 25, 2018. Vakrangee had on January 25 purchased two million shares of PC Jeweller for a little over Rs 112 crore through an open market transaction. READ MORE

 
PC Jeweller turns volatile
 
PC Jeweller turned volatile by surging 29% to Rs 471 on BSE in early morning trade on Monday in otherwise weak market. The stock of jewellery Company zoomed 141% from its Friday’s intra-day low of Rs 195. As many as a combined 22.25 million shares changed hands on the counter in first half-an-hour of trading on BSE and NSE. READ MORE
Markets check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 34,693.24 -1.07%
 
Nifty 50 10,642.75 -1.10%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,610.49 -1.41%
 
Nifty 500 9,267.20 -1.52%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,184.96 -2.35%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,342.50 -2.83%

Budget 2018 impact: Equity MF schemes with dividend option may lose assets
 
More than 400 equity mutual fund (MF) schemes with the dividend option may lose favour among investors following the Union Budget proposal to levy the dividend distribution tax (DDT) at 10 per cent.
 
Put together, these sets of schemes have assets under management (AUM) at Rs 1.5 trillion, which is a fifth of the industry's equity assets. These exclude balanced schemes with the dividend option, which too have come under the tax net. READ MORE
Monetary policy: RBI to pause for sure on Feb 7, but for how much longer?
 
The monetary policy announcement on February 7 will be one of the most critical ones in recent times for analysts because it will set the stage for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) course of action. The policy, coming a week after the Budget, could reverse the rate-cutting cycle for good and may hint at the central bank turning hawkish. READ MORE
Market check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 34,640.45 -426.30 -1.22
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,079.00 -144.13 -1.28
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 33,738.20 -751.38 -2.18
 
S&P BSE 100 10,957.28 -158.17 -1.42
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,686.82 -57.64 -1.54


(Source: BSE)
Sectoral Trend


Sensex top gainers and losers


Market at open
 
At 9:17 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 34,661 down 405 points, while broader Nifty50 index was ruling at 10,588 down 172 points.
Stock calls by Sameet Chavan
 
NSE Scrip Code – Tata Steel 
View  – Bearish Last Close   – Rs 670.45
 
Justification –  Of late, we maintained our cautious stance on the ‘Metal’ space and despite, ‘Tata Steel’ giving series of breakouts, we advised booking longs and going short on the counter. This was mainly on the back of stock reaching its multi-year ‘Golden Ratio’ of 161% around Rs 695 after witnessing stellar moves in last couple of years. READ MORE
Nifty Outlook on by Sameet Chavan
 
Market entered a corrective phase, stay light

The eight weeks winning streak finally came to an end and no brainer, the major event ‘Union Budget’ became the catalyst for this pause. The inaugural day of the trading week posted fresh high at 11,171.55; but this was followed by some consolidation with a mildly negative bias ahead of the event. On the ‘Budget day’ we saw some volatility but due to tail end recovery the Nifty managed to reclaim the 11,000 mark. This seemed to have become a bull-trap as the index opened lower on Friday and then continued its selling streak throughout the remaining part of the day. Eventually, the intimidating session ended with a massive cut of 2.33%; posting biggest single day fall in percentage terms after fourteen months (i.e. November 11, 2016). READ MORE
Top trading ideas by Prabhudas Lilladher
 
BUY MAH SEAMLESS
CMP: Rs 510.35
TARGET: Rs 550
STOP LOSS: Rs 490
 
The stock has maintained a strong positive bias inspite of the very weak market conditions and the positive candle formation pattern in the daily chart indicates strength and potential to rise further and scale till Rs 545-550 levels in the coming days. The indicators have remained intact and infact has indicated a trend reversal to signal a buy. With decent volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of Rs 550 keeping a stop loss of Rs 490. READ MORE
Nifty outlook by Prabhudas Lilladher
 
The weekly and daily trend have turned down with all sectors showing corrective bias. The support for the week is seen at 10,500 while resistance is seen at 10,970.
 
The weightage among the Nifty 50 stocks has drifted more towards the negative and bias for this week continues to be corrective having 10,500 as a crucial support in Nifty.
Trading ideas by Devang Shah
 
RIL- SELL
CLOSE – Rs 905.70
TARGET – Rs 860/840
 
RIL closed weekly in negative territory. Its showing sign of correction in short term. It’s still trading above 40 DMA. Its momentum indicators are in SELL. One can SELL with stop loss of Rs 960 for the target of Rs 860/840 levels in short term. READ MORE
Nifty outlook by Devang Shah
 
Market finally witnessed sharp sell off near from upper end of log channel as mentioned earlier. It finally closed weekly in negative territory after preceding 8th consecutive weekly positive close. One should expect market to trend towards lower levels targets till it reverses in short term. Market will remain volatile for short term, Trader should be cautious & be stock specific in short term & use any kind of pull back rally to sell or exit till short term reverses.
 
From wave count perspectives, I have attached two alternate for this short term correction for both possibility of whether its shadow/minor correction from monthly chart perspectives like preceding all or it will be larger wave-4 correction this time as a preferred alternate. AS Bank Nifty is not having so far any other bullish alternate, I prefer to go with alternate-1 as larger correction in short term till other evidences found. One should expect large cap to fall more in this phase of correction to catch up with mid-caps indices. One should also watch out larger-cap stocks & main indices behaviour in short term for validity of preferred wave count. READ MORE
Budget spurs inflation worries ahead of RBI policy
 
India’s annual budget could push up inflation and prompt the central bank to raise interest rates sooner.
 
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, delivering his last full annual budget before a general election to be held by May next year, raised government spending for rural areas and support to farmers, while slowing the pace of fiscal consolidation.
 
A cautious stance at the RBI would increase the probability of interest rate increases in the coming fiscal year.
SGX Nifty

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a dip of 103 points or 0.98%.
Asia shares skid as inflation shadow spooks bonds
 
Asian shares fell the most in over a year on Monday as fears of resurgent inflation battered bonds, toppled Wall Street from record highs and sparked speculation that central banks globally might be forced to tighten policy more aggressively.
 
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 1.9% in the largest daily drop since late 2016.Japan’s Nikkei sank 2.3 percent, while Australia’s main index lost 1.3% and Chinese blue chips slid 0.7%. 
US markets slump as Dow sees worst day in two years
 
Worries about the impact of a tightening job market on the prospects for inflation and a surge in bond yields sent investors fleeing equities on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrials Average swooning almost 666 points, for its biggest daily percentage loss in 20 months.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 665.75 points, or 2.54%, to 25,520.96, the S&P 500 lost 59.85 points, or 2.12%, to 2,762.13 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 144.92 points, or 1.96% to 7,240.95
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