Indices end flat on F&O expiry; Sensex down 25 pts, Nifty below 10,400

A share broker monitors market fluctuation
The domestic indices ended largely flat on Thursday following the expiry of derivative contracts for February series.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,819, down 25 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,383, down 15 points.

In the global markets, most Asian stocks fell on Thursday, bond yields hit a fresh four-year high and the dollar stood near a one-week high against a basket of major currencies after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed the central bank plans to raise interest rates three times in 2018.

Japanese shares fell sharply to close near one-week low as US rate hike bets boosted demand for the yen and office equipment maker Ricoh said it is conducting impairment tests.

The Nikkei average shed 234 points or 1.07 per cent to 21,736.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.35 per cent in early trade, while E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 lost 0.2 per cent.
(with wire inputs)

4:02 PM IST MARKET COMMENT: Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking   Derivatives expiry turned out to be a non-event as Nifty ended flat after trading volatile in a narrow range. Mostly sectoral indices closed unchanged following benchmark index while correction continued on broader front.   The way things have panned out, on both domestic and global front, in the passing weeks, we do not see any chance of overnight reversal. However, possibility of technical bounce can't be ruled out, citing oversold positions. Above all, sentiment is still bearish and traders can't do without short positions.   We advise using rebound for fresh shorts while maintaining caution in stock selection. PSU banks and pharma look weak to us while IT and FMCG is showing tremendous resilience so plan accordingly

3:45 PM IST PSU Banks slip further PSU banks continued to lose ground on Thursday. Indian Bank, Union Bank of India, Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) and Bank of Baroda slipped between 1.7% - 2.6%. PNB, however, was the top loser in this space that skidded around 2.8%

3:37 PM IST Sectoral Trend

3:36 PM IST Sensex top losers and gainers

3:34 PM IST Market at close   The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,819, down 25 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,383, down 15 points.

3:25 PM IST News Watch Liberty House to approach NCLT on Bhushan Power bid rejection by creditors   Sanjeev Gupta-led Liberty House will be approaching the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) in connection with its bid rejection by creditors to acquire debt-laden Bhusan Power & Steel. "We will go to the NCLT and ask them to direct RP (resolution professional) and CoC (Committee of Creditors) to open our bid," Liberty said in its statement on Thursday. READ MORE

3:15 PM IST IDBI Bank hits 9-month high; up 21% in four days IDBI Bank has moved higher to its nine-month high of Rs 74.60, up 6% on the BSE, extending its past over 10% surge in otherwise weak market. The stock of state-owned lender is trading at its highest level since May 18, 2017. READ MORE

3:04 PM IST RInfra bags Rs 36.4 billion contract for thermal power plant in Tamil Nadu Reliance Infrastructure (RInfra) today said it has won a Rs 36.4 billion contract from Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) for work related to Uppur Thermal power project. READ MORE

3:00 PM IST Market Check S&P BSE Sensex 33,730.77 -0.34%   Nifty 50 10,358.10 -0.38%   S&P BSE 200 4,527.94 -0.37%   Nifty 500 9,131.95 -0.39%   S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,354.69 -0.35%   S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,750.76 -0.28%

2:47 PM IST Sebi to auction 11 assets of Pancard at a total reserve price of Rs 2.6 bn Looking to recover over Rs 70 billion of investors' money, markets regulator Sebi will next month auction 11 properties of Pancard Clubs and its late CMD at a total reserve price of Rs 2.6 billion.   This is in addition to 22 properties that were auctioned between December and February with combined reserve price of Rs 5.52 billion. READ MORE

2:37 PM IST NSE drops plans to sell 'loss-making' Power Exchange India Limited The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has decided to call off the sale of its power trading platform Power Exchange India Limited (PXIL). The move comes within months of NSE finding a consortium of buyers who were ready to pick up a stake of NSE at a nominal rate. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY

2:28 PM IST News Watch PNB hits back at Nirav Modi: Filed complaint as your LoUs were illegal Punjab National Bank on Thursday responded to the letter sent by Nirav Modi, one of the prime accused in the Rs 114-billion scam at the bank, saying the letters of undertaking issued to his companies were illegal and in violation of the Foreign Exchange Management Act. And, this was what prompted the public-sector bank to go public about the fraud, terming the whole loan taking exercise as “money laundering”, PNB clarified. READ MORE

LIVE UPDATES

MARKET COMMENT: Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking
 
Derivatives expiry turned out to be a non-event as Nifty ended flat after trading volatile in a narrow range. Mostly sectoral indices closed unchanged following benchmark index while correction continued on broader front.
 
The way things have panned out, on both domestic and global front, in the passing weeks, we do not see any chance of overnight reversal. However, possibility of technical bounce can't be ruled out, citing oversold positions. Above all, sentiment is still bearish and traders can't do without short positions.
 
We advise using rebound for fresh shorts while maintaining caution in stock selection. PSU banks and pharma look weak to us while IT and FMCG is showing tremendous resilience so plan accordingly
PSU Banks slip further

PSU banks continued to lose ground on Thursday. Indian Bank, Union Bank of India, Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) and Bank of Baroda slipped between 1.7% - 2.6%. PNB, however, was the top loser in this space that skidded around 2.8%


Sectoral Trend


Sensex top losers and gainers


Market at close
 
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 33,819, down 25 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,383, down 15 points.
News Watch Liberty House to approach NCLT on Bhushan Power bid rejection by creditors
 
Sanjeev Gupta-led Liberty House will be approaching the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) in connection with its bid rejection by creditors to acquire debt-laden Bhusan Power & Steel. "We will go to the NCLT and ask them to direct RP (resolution professional) and CoC (Committee of Creditors) to open our bid," Liberty said in its statement on Thursday. READ MORE
IDBI Bank hits 9-month high; up 21% in four days

IDBI Bank has moved higher to its nine-month high of Rs 74.60, up 6% on the BSE, extending its past over 10% surge in otherwise weak market. The stock of state-owned lender is trading at its highest level since May 18, 2017. READ MORE
RInfra bags Rs 36.4 billion contract for thermal power plant in Tamil Nadu

Reliance Infrastructure (RInfra) today said it has won a Rs 36.4 billion contract from Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) for work related to Uppur Thermal power project. READ MORE
Market Check

S&P BSE Sensex 33,730.77 -0.34%
 
Nifty 50 10,358.10 -0.38%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,527.94 -0.37%
 
Nifty 500 9,131.95 -0.39%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,354.69 -0.35%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,750.76 -0.28%

Sebi to auction 11 assets of Pancard at a total reserve price of Rs 2.6 bn

Looking to recover over Rs 70 billion of investors' money, markets regulator Sebi will next month auction 11 properties of Pancard Clubs and its late CMD at a total reserve price of Rs 2.6 billion.
 
This is in addition to 22 properties that were auctioned between December and February with combined reserve price of Rs 5.52 billion. READ MORE
NSE drops plans to sell 'loss-making' Power Exchange India Limited

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has decided to call off the sale of its power trading platform Power Exchange India Limited (PXIL). The move comes within months of NSE finding a consortium of buyers who were ready to pick up a stake of NSE at a nominal rate. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY
News Watch PNB hits back at Nirav Modi: Filed complaint as your LoUs were illegal

Punjab National Bank on Thursday responded to the letter sent by Nirav Modi, one of the prime accused in the Rs 114-billion scam at the bank, saying the letters of undertaking issued to his companies were illegal and in violation of the Foreign Exchange Management Act. And, this was what prompted the public-sector bank to go public about the fraud, terming the whole loan taking exercise as “money laundering”, PNB clarified. READ MORE
Sectoral Trend


Apollo Micro surges 16% after hitting lowest level since listing

Apollo Micro Systems has risen by 16% to Rs 326, bouncing back 18% from its early morning low on the BSE on back of heavy volumes. The stock hit an intra-day low of Rs 276, its lowest level since listing on January 22, 2018. READ MORE
BSE Sensex gainers and losers


News Watch: Balrampur Chini Mills approves buyback of shares for up to Rs 990 mn

Leading sugar firm Balrampur Chini Mills on Wednesday said it will buy back 2.81 per cent of the company's equity shares at a price of Rs 150 per piece.

The board has approved the buyback proposal in Wednesday's meeting.

It has fixed March 6, 2018, as record date to determine eligible shareholders, the company said in a regulatory filing. READ MORE


February set to worst F&O series since November 2016; bank stocks worst hit

The equity markets set to post their worst performance in 15 months in the February future and option (F&O) series that will end today. At 12:25 pm; Nifty 50 index was trading at 10,351 and has slipped 6.5% thus far, most since the November 2016 F&O series. Derivatives contracts expire on last Thursday of every month.
 
In November 2016, Nifty recorded 7.5% fall in the F&O series, after the government announced the demonetisation of all Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 banknotes earlier that month. READ MORE
Abbott excels on power of brands, outpaces MNC peers on sales growth

Abbott India, the listed subsidiary of the US-based pharma giant, has outpaced its multinational peers to register a 14.6 per cent growth in sales to Rs 25.19 billion in nine months of the current financial. READ MORE
An Abbott company logo is pictured at the reception of its office in Mumbai

Market Check

 
S&P BSE Sensex 33,715.67 -0.38%
 
Nifty 50 10,352.50 -0.43%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,527.34 -0.39%
 
Nifty 500 9,132.05 -0.39%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,368.24 -0.26%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,773.03 -0.15%

Despite liberalisation, power demand to sustain Coal India's dominance

Despite opening up of the coal sector to private miners, Coal India's dominance in the field is expected to remain firm as the power sector will continue to bank heavily upon this state-owned coal monolith.

Coal India officials said that the company has a mandate to supply at least 75 per cent of the production to the power sector and the rest can be offered to others like cement and steel; however, the private miners are most likely to be exempted from the clause. READ MORE
Sebi may tighten AIF regulations to better monitor the source of funding

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) plans to tighten present Alternative Investment Funds (AIF) regulations to better monitor the source of funding and their end use.
 
According to sources, Sebi may check the anti-money laundering policies implemented by AIFs and examine the sanctity of any back-end arrangements an AIF may have with its investors, whereby money raised in AIFs is invested back in entities owned by the investors. READ MORE

Adani may sell stake in Australia Carmichael Coal mine amid funding delay

The battle to build one of the world’s biggest coal mines has suffered a fresh setback after Adani Enterprises Ltd. conceded it would fail to meet a March deadline to arrange A$3 billion ($2.3 billion) in financing for the project.

The Indian conglomerate said it will also consider selling a minority stake in its Carmichael project without providing further details. READ MORE
File photo of a coal mine. Photo: Shutterstock

BSE to launch cross-currency derivatives, cross INR options from Feb 27

Leading stock exchange BSE today said it will launch cross-currency derivatives and cross INR options next week, a move that will help increase liquidity in the market. The announcement comes after the exchange received markets regulator Sebi's approval for introducing cross currency derivatives (future and options) on pairs such as Euro (EUR)-US Dollar (USD), Pound Sterling (GBP)-USD and USD-Japanese Yen (JPY). READ MORE
 

Kotak Securities on Indian economy
 
We expect MPC to maintain a status quo, at least through 1HCY18, as it awaits clarity on MSP, sustainability of high crude oil prices post winter squeeze, monsoons and global financial conditions. CPI Inflation outturns in 1HFY19 will be crucial in assessing RBI’s next move. We expect inflation to head towards 5.85% by June 2018 (5.6% as per RBI’s upper-bound in 1HFY19). Overall, even as MPC has sounded vigilant on upside risks, we reckon that amid still-subdued capacity utilization levels, and ‘need to carefully nurture’ the nascent recovery, MPC will be on a wait and watch mode
New Fund Offer: Mirae Asset Short Term Fund
 
The NFO period of the fund will be from 23rd February to 9th March 2018. The fund will reopen for fresh purchases on and from 19th March, 2017. The Scheme will be investing in securities issued by corporate (both private sector and public sectors) including banks and financial institutions and Money Market Instruments across maturities/yield curve and ratings. 
 
The fund will mainly invest in AAA and AA corporate bonds. It may also invest in government securities across maturities/yield curve. Mahendra Jajoo, Head of Fixed Income will manage this fund
 
(Source: News Release)
Sectoral Trend


Markets at noon

 
S&P BSE Sensex 33,736.43 -0.32%
 
Nifty 50 10,360.35 -0.36%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,529.20 -0.35%
 
Nifty 500 9,138.60 -0.32%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,370.10 -0.25%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,786.28 -0.08%

MPC minutes: Govt bonds, rupee slump on RBI's increased inflation concerns

Indian bonds and the rupee weakened on Thursday morning after minutes of the central bank's February monetary policy meetings released on Wednesday showed increased concern among members on the accelerating inflation.
 
The MPC members expressed concern about continued inflationary risks, citing factors including high food and global crude prices and the government's decision to increase spending for the year starting in April to support a struggling agricultural sector. READ MORE
Ipca Labs hits 52-week high; up 21% in 11 days post Q3 results

Ipca Laboratories hit a 52-week high of Rs 671, up 5% on the BSE in intra-day trade, extending its past 10 days gain, after the company reported more than doubled net profit for the quarter ended December (Q3FY18) on back of strong operational performance. In past 11 trading days, the stock of pharmaceutical company surged 20% from Rs 556 on February 6, as compared to 1.3% decline in the S&P BSE Sensex. READ MORE
BSE Sensex: Sun Pharma, Yes Bank top gainers; ONGC, Dr. Reddy among top losers


Must Read: Nifty 10,075 last reliable support for market, long-term trend yet bullish

The trading pattern remains volatile. But, nervousness may be easing off as the market adjusts to the Punjab National Bank scam. The global trading pattern has been less volatile this week.
 
However, India had its worst settlement in a while with the Nifty losing over 6.2 per cent going into settlement day. It's still too early to judge if this is a big trend reversal, or an intermediate correction. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE


Gitanjali tanks 61% in seven days, PC Jeweller plunges 42% in one month

Shares of gems and jewellery companies continued under pressure falling by up to 61% in past one month on concerns of tighter regulations after the fraud at the state-owned Punjab National Bank (PNB).
 
Gitanjali Gems is locked in lower circuit for the sixth straight trading sessions, down 5% at Rs 26.10, also its fresh low on the BSE. READ MORE

JM Financial to sell 32% stake in Sona BLW to private equity investors

JM Financial is cashing out of automobile components giant Sona BLW Precision Forgings, by selling its 32 per cent stake to private equity (PE) investors at a profit. The deal is expected to be closed very soon. Sona BLW is the world’s largest manufacturer of differential gears, with a 11 per cent global share. READ MORE
Market Check
S&P BSE Sensex 33,740.76 -0.31%
 
Nifty 50 10,358.10 -0.38%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,530.84 -0.31%
 
Nifty 500 9,137.65 -0.33%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,379.45 -0.20%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,778.06 -0.12%

PNB and Rotomac scams to offset gains from bank recapitalisation

Exposure to recent instances of fraud at Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Rotomac may offset gains from the government’s capital infusion programme for Union Bank of India and Allahabad Bank. The two public sector banks (PSBs) are reeling from high non-performing assets (NPAs). READ MORE
INTERVIEW OF THE DAY Sensex can dip to 30k; PNB scam dents investors' confidence: Marc Faber

After a strong start to 2018, markets have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past few weeks. MARC FABER, Editor and Publisher of ‘The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’ in conversation with Puneet Wadhwa says that he is not in a rush to invest right now as he expects the markets to drift lower going ahead. He, however, remains bullish on Indian equities from a long-term perspective. CLICK HERE FOR FULL INTERVIEW


PFC, REC shares hit 52-week lows

Shares of state-owned power finance companies, Power Finance Corporation (PFC) and Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) have hit their respective fresh 52-week lows on the BSE in early morning trade on Thursday.
 
REC hit low of Rs 136 and PFC touched low of Rs 103, down nearly 1% each on the BSE in intra-day trade so far. READ MORE
Most of top equity schemes underperform in latest market correction

Most top equity schemes-with assets in excess of Rs 100 billion-have underperformed their respective benchmarks in the past month.
 
At a time when the benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices have fallen by 5 per cent, the average return for 14 such large schemes has been a negative 6 per cent. READ MORE
Deal wins, demand growth to sustain L&T IT twins' outperformance

Two information technology (IT) services stocks from the L&T stable - L&T Infotech and L&T Technology Services - are riding high, even as the sector is coming to grips with a gradual rebound in demand from global clients and the Street remains cautiously optimistic.
 
Given the strong outlook of the two companies, both stocks have nearly doubled over the previous six months and outperformed their peers as well as the IT sector by a mile. READ MORE
Edelweiss on DLF

The company plans to focus on liquidating inventory in the high-end Gurgaon residential market apart from scaling up its fairly well balanced commercial/retail portfolio. Sales pick up in Devco along with ramp up in leasing portfolio will boost cash flow generation, in our view. Pending clarity on proposed deconsolidation of
DCCDL, we maintain our estimates and ‘BUY’ recommendation with a target price of Rs 273.
Edelweiss on JK Cement

JKCE is on solid turf given: i) its grey segment will benefit from rising industry clinker utilisation; ii) recently announced capex offers visibility on future growth; and iii) steady growth in robust white cement business entails potential to mitigate risks in grey cement business. Factoring superior RoE over peers, we continue to value JKCE at 11x FY20E EV/EBIDTA and maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with target price of Rs 1,371. Disappointment in price/volume trend or huge jump in energy cost are key risks.
Bond rout may not be enough for India to let more foreigners in

As India’s sovereign bonds suffer their worst selloff in almost two decades, the one group who actually wants to buy them looks likely to remain shut out of most of the market. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to review the cap on foreign investment in rupee notes, currently set at around 5%, in March or April. It will be the first reassessment since 2015, and comes as 10-year yields have risen to a two-year high, the budget deficit widens and India’s state-run banks have been dumping the debt. READ MORE
Edelweiss on Hindustan Zinc

We believe that production ramp up with supportive zinc (Zn) macros will result in EPS CAGR of 15% through to FY20E. We raise FY19/20 MM production estimates by 3% each resulting in 4% higher EPS as compared to earlier estimates. Our revised target price stands at Rs 395 (Rs 385 earlier; 13.3x FY20E EPS). Maintain BUY. 
Equinomics Research on M&M

Recovery in rural markets and the recent expansion and investments done by the company improves visibility of recovery in volumes in both core businesses and its subsidiaries. At the current market price the stock trades at 19.6x its FY2018E EPS of Rs.36.1 and at 16.9x its FY2019E EPS of Rs.41.8. We recommend a BUY on the stock with a target price of Rs.815, which is 19.4x its FY2019E EPS
BSE smallcap: Gitanjali Gems, RattanIndia Infrastructure among top losers


BSE midcap: Vakrangee top loser


Nifty PSU Bank index slip over 0.5%


Sectoral Trend


BSE Sensex top gainers and losers


Market at open
 
At 9:17 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 33,726, down 119 points while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 10,355, down 43 points.
Sebi permits clearing corps at IFSC to accept cash as trade collateral

Markets regulator Sebi on Wednesday allowed clearing corporations at international financial services centres (IFSCs) to accept cash and cash equivalents as collateral for trades in all product categories. Cash and cash equivalents will include major foreign currencies as may be decided by the clearing corporation from time to time, term deposit receipts and bank guarantees issued by bank branches located in IFSC. READ MORE
Bajaj Finserv, Grasim and Titan to be part of Nifty 50 index from April 2

IISL, the index provider for National Stock Exchange(NSE), has included Bajaj Finserv, Grasim Industries and Titan in the Nifty 50 index. In a press release on Wednesday, the index provider said the three companies were being added as a substitute for Ambuja Cements, Aurobindo Pharma and Bosch who will cease to be a part of the index. READ MORE
PNB 114 billion scam: Govt weighs bank's recapitalisation hike

The recapitalisation amount earmarked for Punjab National Bank by the Centre is set to increase with the unravelling of the Rs 114 billion letters of undertaking (LoUs) scam. PNB’s performance metrics are also being reviewed to see if it requires to be put on the Reserve Bank of India’s list for prompt corrective action (PCA), sources familiar with the developments said. CLICK HERE FOR FULL STORY
News Watch PNB scam: DGFT to examine violations by Nirav Modi, Mehul Choksi firms

The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has initiated an internal probe to examine whether companies belonging to Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi, the prime accused in the Rs 114 billion Punjab National Bank fraud case, followed foreign trade guidelines while taking loans from banks. READ MORE
 
Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 33,897.50 +52.64 +0.16
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 10,872.34 +15.69 +0.14
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 33,675.12 -22.16 -0.07
 
S&P BSE 100 10,781.20 +12.02 +0.11
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,585.93 +6.01 +0.17

Prospects of southern cement firms healthy as SC lifts sand mining ban

Southern India-based cement firms, which had been affected by weak demand because of lower realisations and profitability, have reason to celebrate. Earlier this month, the Supreme Court lifted the ban on sand mining, which should prop up construction, demand and profitability.
 
In the December quarter, average price of a 50 kg bag stood at Rs 301, lower than Rs 344 a year ago. Analysts said Tamil Nadu was the weakest link with sand mining bans taking a toll on demand and margins. READ MORE
PNB fraud: ED asks Sebi to freeze Mehul Choksi's Gitanjali shares

Central investigation agencies have asked national depositories to freeze the promoters’ holdings in Gitanjali Gems, to ensure perpetrators of the alleged Rs 114 billion Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud do not get away without paying back. At the end of December 2017, Gitanjali Chairman Mehul Choksi held a 22.81% stake in Gitanjali Gems. He held another 4.95% through his holding companies. READ MORE
INTERVIEW OF THE DAY Corrections against strong macro backdrop are short-lived: Luis Valdes

As monetary policies become normalised, markets will see more volatility says Principal International President and CEO Luis Valdés. In an interview with Ashley Coutinho, he says strong global growth will help emerging markets. CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL INTERVIEW


TCS, Infosys, HDFC help Sensex, Nifty end higher after three losing sessions

The performance of three index heavyweights, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys and HDFC, has averted a double-digit drop in benchmark indices this year, contributing 530 points to the Sensex. On the other hand, 21 declining stocks pulled the index down by 982 points. The 30-share index was largely unchanged on a year-to-date basis. However, the index came off by nearly 7% from its peak 36,283 in January. Technology majors TCS and Infosys were up about 11% each this year, while mortgage lender HDFC gained about 7%. CLICK HERE FOR  FULL STORY
 
Today's picks: From HCL Tech to Hindalco, hot stocks to watch on Thursday

HCL Technologies Current price: Rs 943 Target price: Rs 957 Keep a stop at Rs 935 and go long. Add to the positions between Rs 953 and Rs 955. Book profits at Rs 957.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE
Bonds drop, call rates turn lower on selling pressure from banks

Government bonds (G-Secs) dropped on sustained selling pressure from banks and corporates and the overnight call money rates also turned lower due to lack of demand from borrowing banks amid comfortable liquidity in the banking sytem. The 7.17% 10-year benchmark bond maturing in 2028 dipped to Rs 96.30 from Rs 96.58, while its yield edged up to 7.71% from 7.67%. READ MORE
Key stocks for trade on Thursday

Stock: COAL INDIA
Recommendation: Buy
CMP : Rs 310.45

 
Breakout from the pennant formation on the weekly scale exhibits strength. The pattern indicates a price target close to 335, a breakout above the recent consolidation zone above 312 could also accelerate momentum & hence trading longs could be initiated with a stop below 302.30 for a target upto 335.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE
Stock exchanges try to assuage concerns after MSCI warning

Domestic stock exchanges on Wednesday tried to assuage concerns over the fallout of the move to snap with their foreign counterparts. “This is to reassure all stakeholders that the Indian exchanges will work with them to facilitate an orderly transition that is not disruptive to the markets and stakeholders. This engagement with various stakeholders will continue in the coming weeks to address any concerns,” said the exchanges in a joint statement. READ MORE
Nifty outlook for the day by Tradebulls Securities

The ongoing momentum seems diminishing as the index approaches its previous swing low around 10,270. The level also coincides with the upward sloping trendline support placed near 10,230 zone; with the daily RSI placed near the oversold zone it’s advisable to reduce shorts & await for a reversal signal on the daily scale. Options data indicates a range of 10,500-10,200 for the expiry & hence any unwinding pressure in confluence with the price action sustaining above 10,400 could push the action towards the upper bound of the range.
 
Traders are advised to exercise caution while trading on the short side from hereon & should maintain a trail stop strategy for their existing shorts with stop above 10,400.
UBS on Indian economy

Our scenario analysis suggests that on the upside, India's historical experience does suggest that it could return to having medium-term potential growth in the 8.0-8.5% region through a combination of higher investment growth (12%YoY) and total factor productivity TFP (4.5%). A likely downside scenario, associated with low TFP (2.5%) and investment growth (4%YoY), would take potential growth to around 5.0-5.5%.
Markets on Wednesday

 
S&P BSE Sensex 33,844.86 0.42%
 
Nifty 50 10,397.45 0.36%
 
S&P BSE 200 4,544.90 0.24%
 
Nifty 500 9,167.60 0.18%
 
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 16,411.46 -0.05%
 
S&P BSE Small-Cap 17,800.14 -0.17%

Nomura on Indian economy

Indicators suggest non-agricultural GDP growth continues to recover, led mainly by higher investment and external demand, while consumption demand is mixed, possibly due to weak monsoon rains and higher fuel costs. Demand-side indicators are performing better than supply-side ones, and the economy performed better in January than in Q4 across most indicators, suggesting growth momentum remains strong. However, agricultural output has been hit by weak monsoons, which could partly blunt the pick-up in non-agriculture GDP growth in the near term.

We expect GDP growth to rebound sharply to 7.5% in in 2018 from 6.2% in 2017, due to ongoing remonetisation, fading of GST-related disruptions and stronger global demand. Due to base effects, we expect growth in H1 2018 (7.8%) to be higher than in H2 2018 (7.1%).
 
Scam-hit PNB to move out of Nifty Midcap 100 index

The scam-hit Punjab National Bank (PNB) will move out of the NSE's Nifty Midcap 100 index from April. READ MORE
Rollover stats

Ahead of the expiry session, Nifty closed on an indecisive note. A higher opening soon paved way for selling that has become a feature of the last few sessions. Rollovers also point towards a bleak picture going into the expiry day. 
 
Market-wide rollovers stands at 54% which is a tad lower compared to the average rollovers of 56% (last three series). Market wide futures open interest (OI) around Rs 1.67tn as compared to Rs 2tn on the D-1 of January expiry. Average roll levels across stock futures were ~50-52bps (cost to long rollers). Low levels have been a concern especially for the FII short rollers. 
 
Nifty futures rollovers stand at 39% which is lower compared to the average rollovers of 46% (last three series). Nifty futures OI stands at Rs 292bn (~28.1mn shares) as against the OI of INR 408bn (~36.8mn shares) on D-1 of the last series. Nifty futures roll levels (cost to long rollers) was ~21-22bps (screen levels of 21-22 points). As we have been mentioning in our expiry week notes, lower roll levels are a major cause of concern. With a long March expiry, short roll arbitrageurs are seeking relatively higher levels to rollover the positions. 

(Source: Edelweiss)
 
Wall Street

On Wednesday, the Dow had ended down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.55% and the Nasdaq 0.22%.
Index watch

IISL has announced the Semi-Annual review for rebalancing the Nifty Index. Index changes will be effective from 02-Apr-18 and adjustments will be done on close of 28-Mar-18.

 
 

SGX Nifty

The SGX Nifty was trading at 10,335.50, down 0.45% from the previous close.
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