MARKET WRAP: Sensex ends 305 pts higher, Nifty at 11,370 as rupee recovers

The benchmark indices ended higher as the rupee recovered after hitting a record low of 72.91 against US dollar and value buying at lower levels.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 37,718, up 305 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,370, up 82 points.

Among sectoral indices, the Nifty FMCG index ended 2.5 per cent led by a rise in the share prices of GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare and ITC. The Nifty Pharma index, too, rose 1.1 per cent led by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

The markets will remain closed on Thursday on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. On Friday, the investors will react to July industrial production and August CPI inflation data, which will be announced later today.

Rupee recovers from record low of 72.91/$

The rupee bounced back from its fresh lifetime low, recovering around 70 paise to trade at 72.20 against the greenback.

Earlier in the day, it hit a new record low of 72.91 per dollar, weighed down by inflationary concerns and amid weakness in global currencies against the dollar.

Global Markets

Asian stocks slipped to 14-month lows on Wednesday with investor confidence chilled by the latest round of verbal threats in an intensifying US-China trade conflict.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.3 per cent, plumbing its lowest levels since July 2017. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.4 per cent and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.3 per cent. Tokyo’s Nikkei declined 0.4 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI shed 0.3 per cent.

The mood was dimmed by the verbal sparring between Washington and Beijing as the months-long escalation in trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies took its toll on riskier assets.

(with wire inputs)


MARKET COMMENT Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking

After correcting sharply over the last two sessions, the Indian equity benchmark indices staged a smart comeback, led by a sharp recovery in the Rupee (vs USD) from record lows of 72.91. After trading in a narrow range during first half, the Nifty index bounced back sharply post noon from intra-day low from 11,250 and ended the session near the day’s high at 11,370 levels, up 0.7%.

The broader market indices exhibited a mix picture with BSE Smallcap underperforming the benchmark and closing lower by 0.3%, while BSE Midcap ended higher by 0.5%. Barring Realty & Banks, which underperformed, all the other sectoral indices ended in the green with FMCG, Metals & Capital Goods being the top gainers. Globally, most Asian indices ended on a weak note, while European markets were trading flat to marginally higher.
Despite today’s upmove, we continue to remain cautious on the Indian markets. Key macro data like IIP & CPI, movement of crude oil prices, currency (INR vs USD) and global developments, especially on the trade war front will dictate the market trend in the coming sessions. Traders should strictly hedge their positions, as we expect volatility to increase in the coming sessions
Nifty FMCG index ends 2.53% higher. Top gainers:

GODREJ CONSUMER 866.70 832.17 34.53 4.15
GLAXOSMITH C H L 7409.95 7144.25 265.70 3.72
ITC 306.70 297.20 9.50 3.20
UNITED BREWERIES 1319.05 1281.05 38.00 2.97
TATA GLOBAL 221.30 216.00 5.30 2.45

Sectoral gainers & losers of the day

BSE Sensex: Top gainers & losers

Market at close
The S&P BSE Sensex gained 305 points or 0.81 per cent to settle at 37,718 while NSE's Nifty50 index ended 82 points or 0.73 per cent higher at 11,370. 
KIOCL gains 11% as board mulls share buyback proposal

Shares of KIOCL have moved higher by 11% to Rs 195 per share on the BSE after the state-owned company announced that its board will meet on Tuesday, September 18, 2018, to consider share buyback proposal. The stock bounced back 16% from its intra-day low of Rs 168 touched in early morning deal. READ MORE

10 years of Lehman: Is the next global financial crisis already brewing?

As financial market participants reflect on the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse, the consensus is there will be no repeat of the near-death experience, largely because authorities simply will not allow it.
The once-in-a-generation financial meltdown and economic catastrophe were so grave that, to borrow from ECB chief Mario Draghi, they will do whatever it takes to make sure it does not happen again. Painful lessons have been learned. READ MORE

Sun Pharma shares gain 4% after declining 7% in past three days

Shares of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries have moved higher by 4% to Rs 655 per share, bouncing back 6% from their early morning low of Rs 620 per share on the BSE on Wednesday.
The stock of drug firm has fallen 7% in past three trading days till Tuesday, on reports that company received six observations by US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Halol unit and inspection of the company’s Mohali facility. READ MORE

10 years of financial crisis: Ghost of Lehman haunts emerging markets again

The flood of liquidity that supported the global financial system after the fall of Lehman Brothers has turned into a pain-point for emerging markets (EMs) 10 years later.
Tightening liquidity conditions in developed markets (DMs) has raised the spectre of EM outflows, contributing to a rout which has seen the Turkish lira and the Argentine peso fall over 40 per cent and the Indian rupee hit a record low by going past the 72-mark against the dollar. READ MORE

Exports up 19.21% in August; Trade Deficit at $17.4 bn

India's exports grew by 19.21 per cent to USD 27.84 billion in August on account of healthy performance by sectors such as petroleum. Merchandise imports too rose by 25.41 per cent in August to USD 45.24 billion due to the rising crude oil prices, leaving a trade deficit of USD 17.4 billion. READ MORE
Top gainers in Nifty 50 index:

SUN PHARMA.INDS. 652.90 630.40 22.50 3.57
ITC 305.05 297.20 7.85 2.64
POWER GRID CORPN 191.45 186.90 4.55 2.43
HIND. UNILEVER 1624.90 1590.65 34.25 2.15
HINDALCO INDS. 236.35 231.60 4.75 2.05

NEWS ALERT Rupee firms 60 paise from lifetime low of 72.91 against dollar. Currently trading at 72.34/$

Market Check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 37,601.75 +188.62 +0.50
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,866.06 +58.02 +0.49
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 33,882.19 +149.97 +0.44
S&P BSE 100 11,621.93 +56.02 +0.48
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,583.87 +12.62 +0.35

(Source: BSE)
NEWS ALERT: Govt official say, not ruling out RBI rate hike in October, according to media reports
NEWS ALERT: Govt may announce measures on rupee, oil post meet, media reports say
NEWS ALERT: PM Modi may hold economic review meet this weekend, news reports say
Co-location case: Sebi directs senior NSE officials to stay 'out of action'

Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has directed the NSE to keep four senior officials, served show-cause notices (SCN) in the co-location case, out of action. Sources said these four key managerial personnel (KMP) will have to remain out of the bourse’s “sensitive” and “confidential” matters until the probe is complete. The move is to ensure a fair trial in the colo case, which is nearing conclusion. READ MORE

This stock has zoomed 300,000% in 25 years

Leading auto component manufacturer, Motherson Sumi, completed 25 years of its listing on the BSE on September 09. The company manufactures automotive wiring harnesses, mirrors for passenger cars and supplies plastic components and modules to the automotive industry.
To commemorate its 25 years of listing, the company's board has recommended the issue of bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1 – that is one share as bonus for each share held by investors – subject to regulatory approvals. READ MORE

Apollo Tyres, Jet Airways among 37 stocks in BSE500 index to hit 52-wk lows

Shares of Apollo Tyres, GIC Housing Finance, Sun TV Network, Vodafone Idea, BEML, Bharat Electronics, IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) and Bharti Infratel were among 37 stocks from the S&P BSE 500 index hitting their respective 52-week lows on the BSE on Wednesday.
Shares of all three listed state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) – Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation – along with aviation companies Jet Airways and InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) have hit 52-week lows due to rising crude oil prices. READ MORE
Sugar stocks rise

GAYATRI SUGARS 3.15 3.00 0.15 5.00
EMPEE SUGARS 2.35 2.24 0.11 4.91
DHARANI SUGARS 13.55 13.26 0.29 2.19
AVADH SUGAR 377.70 369.95 7.75 2.09
SIR SHADI LAL 35.25 34.65 0.60 1.73

NEWS ALERT Cabinet approves new procurement policy to ensure MSP to farmers

JP Associates hits fresh 52-week low on reports of insolvency proceedings

Shares of Jaiprakash Associates (JP Associates) hit a fresh 52-week low of Rs 9.32 per share, down 8%, extending their 12% decline in past four days on reports that ICICI Bank filed insolvency case against the company. READ MORE

How to demat your physical shares before the December 5 deadline ends

If you're still holding your shares in physical form, you must act fast to get them digitalised. That is because Sebi issued a notification on June 8, barring the transfer of securities that have not been de-materialised. Anything that remains on paper cannot be transferred after December 5. The only exception to this rule is the transfer of physical shares under a will in the case of the shareholder's death. READ MORE
Web Exclusive Sliding rupee, rising oil make analysts cautious; book profit now, they say

Rising oil prices that are closing on $80 per barrel mark once again and a sliding rupee that is nearing an all-time low of 73 to a US dollar have dented the stock market sentiment with the S&P BSE Sensex slipping nearly 1,000 points in the last two trading sessions.
The developments have made analysts cautious, who suggest investors’ should book partial profit at the current levels and avoid fresh investment in the markets till rupee and oil prices stabilise. READ MORE
Markets at noon

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 37,491.61 +78.48 +0.21
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,825.58 +17.54 +0.15
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 33,652.47 -79.75 -0.24
S&P BSE 100 11,576.39 +10.48 +0.09
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,565.97 -5.28 -0.15

Multiple cost headwinds for tyre makers; week rupee may wash profitability
Tyre stocks are down by five to 11 per cent over the past month on input cost worries. Natural rubber (NR) prices in India have moved up by eight per cent over the past four months, on supply issues, including the impact from floods in Kerala.
The price in rupee terms of imported rubber has risen by four per cent in the same period, due to the rupee's sharp depreciation. READ MORE
ABB India hits 6-month high; stock up 18% in one week
Shares of ABB India were trading higher for the fifth straight day, up 6% at Rs 1,474 on the BSE in an otherwise range-bound market on the back of heavy volumes.
The stock of power and automation technology firm hit its 6-month high has surged 18% as compared a to 1.5% decline in the S&P BSE Sensex. It was trading at its highest level since March 7, 2018. READ MORE
IL&FS MF's exposure under scanner; firm says in good position to repay dues
The IL&FS group has come under scanner of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) because of its exposure to group firms and mounting debt burden. However, sources said market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) may also step in.
The bone of contention is IL&FS Infrastructure Debt Fund’s (IDF) high exposure to its own group’s renewable businesses. The IDF, run by IL&FS MF, has more than 30 per cent of AUM in two of its schemes exposed to IL&FS Solar Power and IL&FS Wind Energy (IWEL). READ MORE
Nifty pharma index rises; top gainers in the pack

SUN PHARMA.INDS. 640.10 630.40 9.70 1.54 3832335
DIVI'S LAB. 1259.50 1244.65 14.85 1.19 391114
DR REDDY'S LABS 2538.65 2524.45 14.20 0.56 392781
LUPIN 945.20 940.30 4.90 0.52 1695443
CADILA HEALTH. 409.90 408.90 1.00 0.24 888554

JSPL and NMDC key gainers from higher domestic steel pellet prices
Domestic steel pellet prices recently hit their multi-year highs on strong demand from China and supply-related constraints.
The continued shutdown at Brazilian pelletiser Samarco’s mines and force majeure by Swedish player LKAB is disrupting third-party supplies of 55-60 million tonnes per annum (MTPA), supporting steel pellet prices, say analysts. READ MORE
No upside triggers for Bharti Infratel; competitive pressure to impact biz
The Bharti Infratel stock was down nearly 7 per cent over the last week on worries that tenancy exits because of the Vodafone-Idea merger, lower orders from Reliance Jio, and uncertainty on upsides from fibre rollouts would limit revenue gains for the company. Given the consolidation in the sector, revenues of Bharti Infratel — which offers tower infrastructure to telecom service providers — have been severely impacted. READ MORE
OMCs trade weak; BPCL, HPCL, IOCL hit 52-week lows
Shares of all three listed state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) hit their respective 52-week low on the BSE on Wednesday in early morning trade. amid falling rupee and rising crude oil prices. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) were down 3% to 4% on the BSE in intra-day trade. On comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading flat at 37,412 points. READ MORE
Market Check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 37,412.20 -0.93 0.00
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,801.56 -6.48 -0.05
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 33,563.72 -168.50 -0.50
S&P BSE 100 11,551.86 -14.05 -0.12
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,560.18 -11.07 -0.31

(Source: BSE)
Earnings show that equity markets are no longer held hostage by rupee

India's rupee has been battered along with its emerging-market peers in recent weeks, but stock investors would do well to look beyond the currency’s slump and pay attention to an improving earnings picture, according to the nation's largest brokerage.

"We have moved away from the past when currency sneezed and the equity markets caught a cold,” Shilpa Kumar, chief executive officer of ICICI Securities Ltd., said in an interview. READ MORE
Global financial crisis How India can look ahead by looking back, writes HR Khan
A catastrophe struck in September 2008 when Lehman collapsed, leading to a full-blown Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Ten years is a good time to look back at what lessons, right and wrong, we learnt, and how we moved forward, especially in the Indian context. READ MORE

Nifty sectoral trend

BSE Sensex opening gainers and losers

Market at open
At 9:15 AM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 37,450, up 37 points while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 11,289, up 2 points.
Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 37,495.91 +82.78 +0.22
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,832.32 +24.28 +0.21
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 33,780.43 +48.21 +0.14
S&P BSE 100 11,588.60 +22.69 +0.20
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,589.69 +18.44 +0.52


Rupee opens weak, hits new low at 72.86 per US dollar
Top trading ideas by Religare Broking
Tata Chemicals
Rec: BUY
Last Close: Rs 738.10
Initiation range: Rs 730-740
Target: Rs 720
Stop loss: Rs 780
Tata Chemicals has been trading in broadening formation (which acts as a continuous pattern) around its record high for last nine months. It has recently tested the upper band of the pattern and witnessing profit taking now. We believe it’s an excellent buying opportunity and traders should utilize this phase to accumulate fresh longs in the given range.
Stock calls by HDFC Securities
Sell YES Bank
CMP: Rs 316.60
Target: Rs 300
Stop-loss: Rs 330
The stock has breached the crucial support of 200 DMA, currently placed at 337. Stock has also closed below its previous two bottoms on the daily chats. Price has fallen with rising volumes. Oscillators and Indicators are showing weakness on the charts. We recommend selling Yes bank for the downside target of 300, keeping SL at 330.
Outlook on crude oil prices: Likely to remain elevated
The crude oil prices have inched up and sustained at higher levels during the current calendar year due to the various geopolitical events witnessed during the period. In the near term, various demand-supply equations will play an important role in determining the direction of crude oil prices. Oil supply from OPEC countries and increase in US production will provide some respite to the rising crude oil prices.

Continued oil production loss from countries like Venezuela and political instability in MENA region might impact crude oil supply. More importantly renewed sanctions on Iran exports from November and the gravity of its implementation will keep oil prices volatile with limited downside in the near term.

(Source: ICICI Securities)
MARKET COMMENT Amar Ambani, head of research, IIFL

As the world watches the ramifications of the trade war, headlines scream that Trump's next trade war shot could hit Americans from head to toe. Literally. Reports suggest that China will ask the World Trade Organisation for permission to impose sanctions on the US. Meanwhile, broad-based selling was seen across sectors on Tuesday as the market fell for the second consecutive session.

The rupee touched another record low, even after opening positive. The 10-year bond yield rose amid concerns of another rate hike by the RBI. The outlook is a flat start and a wobbly day of trade is in store. Volatility is expected ahead of the release of data on retail inflation for August, IIP and manufacturing output for July post market hours. Wall Street rose on the back of gains in tech shares. Asian markets are on the weaker side
Nifty outlook by HDFC Securities
Nifty plunged for the second consecutive session, breaching 11,300, to close at 11,288. Nifty has lost 2.60% in the last two sessions, which is the highest two day % fall in last 7 months. We expect Nifty to found support somewhere between 11,170 and 11,210. Resistance for Nifty is now shifted downward to 11,400. The outlook for markets remains bearish for the short term. Nifty Private bank Index has breached the crucial support of 15,390 and likely to extend the losses further
Today's picks
Bharti Infratel
Current price: Rs 270
Target price: Rs 266
Keep a stop at Rs 272 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 267 and Rs 268. Book profits at Rs 266.
Power Grid
Current price: Rs 187
Target price: Rs 183
Keep a stop at Rs 189 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 184 and Rs 185. Book profits at Rs 183.

July industrial production and August CPI inflation will be announced later in the day today. Industrial production rose to a five-month high of 7 per cent in June while CPI inflation fell to 4.17 per cent in July, lowest in nine months, driven by cheaper food items.
Rupee ends at record closing low of 72.70/$
The rupee on Tuesday, closed at a record low of 72.70 per US dollar, against a previous close of 72.45. Weakness in the currency was largely because of factors such as surge in oil prices, trade war concerns along with lack of aggressive intervention by India’s central bank.
Government bonds too took a hit on Tuesday amid global weakness. The 10-year benchmark government bond yield climbed to 8.18 per cent.
SGX Nifty
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 28 points or 0.25 per cent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,349-level on the Singaporean Exchange.
Oil prices rise on lower US crude inventories, looming Iran sanctions
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after a report of falling crude inventories and the looming sanctions against Iran fueled expectations of a tightening market.
Prices were also pushed up by Hurricane Florence, which is expected to make landfall on the US East Coast on Friday, and which has caused fuel shortages following the evacuation of millions of households and businesses.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $69.81 per barrel at 0047 GMT, up 56 cents, or 0.8 per cent, from their last settlement. Brent crude futures climbed 24 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $79.30 a barrel.
Asia stocks wobble near 14-month lows on simmering trade worries
Asian stocks were pinned near 14-month lows on Wednesday, as investor confidence was chilled by the latest round of verbal threats in an intensifying US-China trade conflict. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.05 percent, hovering near its lowest levels plumbed since July 2017 on Monday.
Tokyo's Nikkei fell 0.25 per cent and Australian stocks gave up 0.3 per cent, while South Korea's KOSPI managed to eke out a modest 0.15 per cent gain.
Wall Street gains as Apple, tech rebound
US stocks rose on Tuesday as Apple led a jump in technology shares and a gain of more than 2 per cent in oil prices drove up energy shares. Apple rose 2.5 per cent, boosting the three major indexes, a day ahead of its expected unveiling of new iPhone models. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 113.99 points, or 0.44 per cent, to 25,971.06, the S&P 500 gained 10.76 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 2,887.89 and the Nasdaq Composite added 48.31 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 7,972.47.
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