MARKET WRAP: Indices at new high; Sensex up 442 pts, Nifty hits 11,700

Benchmark indices ended at all-time closing high on Monday, the ninth time this month, following positive global cues and boosted by gains in bank stocks including ICICI Bank and SBI. The August series futures and options expiry on Thursday may lead to some volatility in the market. 

The S&P BSE Sensex ended the day at an all-time closing high of 38,694, up 442 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at a new closing high of 11,691, up 135 points. In intraday deals, the broader Nifty50 index climbed over 1.5 per cent to hit 11,700 for the first time ever, while the S&P BSE Sensex also hit a record, rising over 1 per cent to 38,736.88

Among sectors, shares of public sector banks (PSBs) are in focus with Nifty PSU Bank index gaining more than 2% on Monday ahead of the Allahabad Court verdict on stressed power assets as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deadline ends today. The RBI’s February 12 circular said all stressed assets will either get resolved by August 27 or get taken to the NCLT.

MACRO DATA

Investors will look forward to April-June quarter GDP data, which will be released on August 31. For the quarter ended March 31 2018, the GDP growth print stood at 7.7 per cent. July fiscal deficit data will be out on Friday when the infrastructure output data for July will also be released. 

GLOBAL MARKETS

Asian shares were also higher, boosted by record Wall Street highs last week that followed reassuring comments from the US Federal Reserve Chair, and as stock markets in China gained after the country’s central bank tweaked its management of the yuan.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 1.1 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed 0.9 per cent higher.

In China, shares rose to their highest levels in two weeks. The Shanghai Composite index added 1.7 per cent and the blue-chip CSI300 index surged 2.2 per cent, after the People’s Bank of China late on Friday revived a “counter-cyclical factor” used to set the midpoint of the daily trading band of the yuan, in a bid to support it.

(With inputs from Reuters)

4:18 PM IST MARKET COMMENT Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking It's been an exceptional start of the expiry week as Nifty gained over a percent and settled closer to 11,700. It opened gap up in line with from other global indices, mainly in reaction to the latest statement from the US Fed wherein they've hinted that further rate hikes would be gradual. Besides, recovery in rupee combined with encouraging data of foreign fund flow added to positivity. Almost all the sectoral indices, barring media and realty, contributed to the rally however broader market showed mixed trend.    Markets are steadily moving higher despite mixed cues and this clearly indicates upbeat sentiment among the participants. However, we feel participants, especially traders, should gradually reduce their positions on every rise in Nifty from hereon and focus more on stocks. Banking, auto and pharma are still our top picks for short term trades

3:39 PM IST Nifty PSU Bank index gains over 2%; top gainers

3:38 PM IST Sectoral trend

3:35 PM IST Top Sensex gainers and losers

3:33 PM IST Markets at Close The S&P BSE Sensex ended the day at all-time closing high of 38,694, up 442 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at new closing high of 11,691, up 135 points

3:25 PM IST Future Group shares gain on talks of global interest   Shares of Future Group companies have rallied by up to 14% on the BSE after the media reported that Google, Paytm Mall may team up to shop for Future Retail stake.   “The Company evaluates various possibilities, including in relation to business association with third parties, which is always a subject matter of further feasibility studies and the need for requisite consents in accordance to the applicable laws. At present, since there has been no such decision taken by the Board of Directors of the Company there is no disclosure obligation that would have otherwise triggered,” Future Retail said in a BSE filing on clarification on news report. READ MORE

3:12 PM IST Assets under management of top India-focused offshore equity funds shrink   Assets under management (AUM) of most of the top India-focused offshore equity funds have seen a decline in the past one year despite the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex rising 15 per cent.   The total AUM of top 10 funds shrunk by 1.4 per cent to $26 billion for the one-year period ending June 2018, data provided by fund Morningstar showed. The drop in assets is on the back of $1.2 billion of outflows from these funds. READ MORE

2:59 PM IST F&O watch Rollover activity in the Nifty seems to be on the higher side into the September series after exhibiting significant resilience at highs during the series as the Nifty continues to trade near 11500 despite multiple headwinds. The Nifty near month futures have almost 29.5 million shares, significantly high compared to last six months. At the same time, with PCR Ratio for the Nifty testing 1.70 levels, consolidation above11500 seems more likely in the settlement week. The roll spread in the Nifty is likely to inch up due to rollover of long positions during the August series. We believe current spread of 38 points may move beyond 45 points towards settlement. On the other hand, the Bank Nifty continued to see closure of positions in the near month series with roll cost of just 100 points

2:51 PM IST Centrum on Siyaral Silk Mills Given the current quarter performance, we have marginally lowered our estimates with revenue and PAT CAGR of 14.1% and 14.5%, respectively over FY18-20E (vs 14.5% and 14.6% earlier). Currently, SSML trades at a P/E of 17.3x on FY20E basis. We maintain our view that SSML is likely to do well over the medium to long term, however on a quarterly basis there may be variations on the sales and profit front depending upon the market conditions and demand scenario. We value the company at 21x FY20E EPS, giving a target price of Rs 674.

2:45 PM IST Sebi is working on a special policy to ensure data privacy for investors   The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) will be coming up with a special policy to ensure data privacy for investors. Sources say the regulator is working on standard procedures for sharing and storing of investor data among market intermediaries and third parties.   The move comes at a time when the clamour for strict data privacy laws is growing louder with other regulatory agencies, including the Reserve Bank of India, making efforts to address concerns. READ MORE

2:30 PM IST Rupee's weakness worrying you? Beat depreciation with international funds   The rupee touched an all-time low against the dollar recently and is now trading at the 70.11 mark. It has depreciated 8.90 per cent against the dollar year-to-date.   One way how investors can protect themselves against currency depreciation is by investing in international funds offered by mutual fund houses in India. Diversify geographically Investing in international funds makes your portfolio less dependent on the Indian market. READ MORE

2:15 PM IST RIL, TCS, Bajaj Finance hit new highs; rally over 60% in one year   Shares of three Nifty 50 companies - Reliance Industries (RIL), Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Bajaj Finance – hit their respective new highs on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Monday, rallied more than 60% each in past one year.   Besides these three companies, Dabur India, Havells India, Indiabulls Ventures, Infibeam Avenues, JSW Steel, Merck, MphasiS, Page Industries, Pfizer, RBL Bank, Sunteck Realty, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and VIP Industries were total 17 stocks from the Nifty 500 index touched new highs today. READ MORE

LIVE UPDATES

MARKET COMMENT Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking

It's been an exceptional start of the expiry week as Nifty gained over a percent and settled closer to 11,700. It opened gap up in line with from other global indices, mainly in reaction to the latest statement from the US Fed wherein they've hinted that further rate hikes would be gradual. Besides, recovery in rupee combined with encouraging data of foreign fund flow added to positivity. Almost all the sectoral indices, barring media and realty, contributed to the rally however broader market showed mixed trend. 
 
Markets are steadily moving higher despite mixed cues and this clearly indicates upbeat sentiment among the participants. However, we feel participants, especially traders, should gradually reduce their positions on every rise in Nifty from hereon and focus more on stocks. Banking, auto and pharma are still our top picks for short term trades
Nifty PSU Bank index gains over 2%; top gainers

Sectoral trend

Top Sensex gainers and losers

Markets at Close

The S&P BSE Sensex ended the day at all-time closing high of 38,694, up 442 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at new closing high of 11,691, up 135 points
Future Group shares gain on talks of global interest
 
Shares of Future Group companies have rallied by up to 14% on the BSE after the media reported that Google, Paytm Mall may team up to shop for Future Retail stake.
 
“The Company evaluates various possibilities, including in relation to business association with third parties, which is always a subject matter of further feasibility studies and the need for requisite consents in accordance to the applicable laws. At present, since there has been no such decision taken by the Board of Directors of the Company there is no disclosure obligation that would have otherwise triggered,” Future Retail said in a BSE filing on clarification on news report. READ MORE
Assets under management of top India-focused offshore equity funds shrink
 
Assets under management (AUM) of most of the top India-focused offshore equity funds have seen a decline in the past one year despite the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex rising 15 per cent.
 
The total AUM of top 10 funds shrunk by 1.4 per cent to $26 billion for the one-year period ending June 2018, data provided by fund Morningstar showed. The drop in assets is on the back of $1.2 billion of outflows from these funds. READ MORE
F&O watch

Rollover activity in the Nifty seems to be on the higher side into the September series after exhibiting significant resilience at highs during the series as the Nifty continues to trade near 11500 despite multiple headwinds. The Nifty near month futures have almost 29.5 million shares, significantly high compared to last six months. At the same time, with PCR Ratio for the Nifty testing 1.70 levels, consolidation above11500 seems more likely in the settlement week.

The roll spread in the Nifty is likely to inch up due to rollover of long positions during the August series. We believe current spread of 38 points may move beyond 45 points towards settlement. On the other hand, the Bank Nifty continued to see closure of positions in the near month series with roll cost of just 100 points
Centrum on Siyaral Silk Mills

Given the current quarter performance, we have marginally lowered our estimates with revenue and PAT CAGR of 14.1% and 14.5%, respectively over FY18-20E (vs 14.5% and 14.6% earlier). Currently, SSML trades at a P/E of 17.3x on FY20E basis.

We maintain our view that SSML is likely to do well over the medium to long term, however on a quarterly basis there may be variations on the sales and profit front depending upon the market conditions and demand scenario. We value the company at 21x FY20E EPS, giving a target price of Rs 674.
Sebi is working on a special policy to ensure data privacy for investors
 
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) will be coming up with a special policy to ensure data privacy for investors. Sources say the regulator is working on standard procedures for sharing and storing of investor data among market intermediaries and third parties.
 
The move comes at a time when the clamour for strict data privacy laws is growing louder with other regulatory agencies, including the Reserve Bank of India, making efforts to address concerns. READ MORE
Rupee's weakness worrying you? Beat depreciation with international funds
 
The rupee touched an all-time low against the dollar recently and is now trading at the 70.11 mark. It has depreciated 8.90 per cent against the dollar year-to-date.
 
One way how investors can protect themselves against currency depreciation is by investing in international funds offered by mutual fund houses in India. Diversify geographically Investing in international funds makes your portfolio less dependent on the Indian market. READ MORE
RIL, TCS, Bajaj Finance hit new highs; rally over 60% in one year
 
Shares of three Nifty 50 companies - Reliance Industries (RIL), Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Bajaj Finance – hit their respective new highs on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on Monday, rallied more than 60% each in past one year.
 
Besides these three companies, Dabur India, Havells India, Indiabulls Ventures, Infibeam Avenues, JSW Steel, Merck, MphasiS, Page Industries, Pfizer, RBL Bank, Sunteck Realty, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and VIP Industries were total 17 stocks from the Nifty 500 index touched new highs today. READ MORE
Market Check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 38,718.13 +466.33 +1.22
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 12,243.17 +140.25 +1.16
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 35,191.64 +321.18 +0.92
 
S&P BSE 100 12,003.34 +133.34 +1.12
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,733.08 +62.09 +1.69

PSBs in focus; SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank up over 2%
 
Shares of public sector banks (PSBs) are in focus with Nifty PSU Bank index gaining more than 2% on Monday, ahead of the Allahabad Court verdict on stressed power assets as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deadline ends today.
 
The RBI’s February 12 circular said all stressed assets will either get resolved by August 27 or get taken to the NCLT. READ MORE
Don't give up on gold yet, it can still be good bet during uncertain times
 
Yash Singh, head of human resource at a leading corporate house, is more than a tad disappointed in gold. He has been diligently buying one 10 gram gold coin every month for over five years. “It has become a habit now,” says Singh.
 
But in the last few months, his faith in the yellow metal has been shaken. Nowadays, he is constantly seeking advice from his financial planner and other friends on whether he should continue this habit. READ MORE
Top contributors to today's Sensex rise

COMPANY LATEST CHG(RS) CHG(%) FREE FLOAT
MKT CAP
(RS CR)
CONTRIBUTION
(POINTS)
ICICI BANK 340.55 10.45 3.17 212391.28 63.34
RELIANCE INDS. 1292.70 14.65 1.15 437442.77 47.24
INFOSYS 1402.80 22.85 1.66 262225.54 40.92
ITC 313.55 3.20 1.03 379598.40 36.81
ST BK OF INDIA 309.60 9.30 3.10 112562.41 32.85
KOTAK MAH. BANK 1275.00 20.20 1.61 167466.35 25.40

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UBS on Britannia Industries
 
The timing and nature of a demand recovery has been a central debate in the Indian consumer sector in FY15-FY18. Our analysis of UBS Evidence Lab data suggests early signs of a recovery. We believe it is unlikely to be limited to just personal care, home care and discretionary categories. 
 
In our view, packaged food could see an upswing as domestic consumption, especially in rural India, recovers. We raise our FY19/FY20 revenue estimates 3.2%/7.2% on the basis of volume growth and inflation-led pricing (given recent MSP hikes). We increase our EPS estimates for FY19/FY20 by 5.6%/11.1%. We maintain our Buy rating and raise our price target to Rs 7,700.
Edelweiss on PVR

We reiterate our positive stance on PVR owing to: (1) strategic acquisition of SPI Cinemas (SPI) - set to reap manifold benefits; and (2) limited overhang of F&B controls - till now courts have adopted favourable stance on the issue. As SPI is the most popular screen brand in South India, PVR will draw operational synergies and scale up ad revenues, while reducing content risk.

The acquisition also clears the decks for PVR to emerge as the No. 1 player in key South Indian cities as well as undertake seamless expansion (100 plus screens post FY19). We expect the deal to be earnings accretive in the first year itself. Hence, we raise our FY19/20E EPS by 2.70%/4.08% and also revise our target multiple to 30x (from 28x) FY20E EPS to arrive at a revised target price of Rs 1,608 (earlier Rs 1,442). Maintain ‘BUY’.
IDFC Securities on Apollo Hospitals

Apollo Standalone Pharmacy (ASAP), India’s largest organized pharmacy retail business with 3,000 stores, has been Apollo Hospitals’ (Apollo) standout business since last few years. Relatively slower growth in Apollo’s healthcare services have overshadowed ASAP’s consistent performance (23% revenue and 37% EBITDA CAGR over FY15-18).

The ASAP business is at now an inflection point with FY18 revenue/EBITDA of Rs32.7bn/Rs1.5bn, respectively, and RoCE of 15%. We estimate 18% CAGR in ASAP revenues over FY18-21E and value this business at Rs53.7bn (20x FY21E EV/EBITDA) which implies that Apollo’s ex-SAP business is currently trading at 13.5x EV/EBITDA (FY21E). We maintain Outperformer on Apollo with a target price of Rs1,483 and Apollo is our top pick in healthcare services space.
Top BSE500 gainers

COMPANY PRICE() CHG() CHG(%) VOLUME
ZYDUS WELLNESS 1675.00 194.40 13.13 20378
JINDAL SAW 88.90 7.85 9.69 281058
MOIL 189.90 16.00 9.20 288517
ADANI TRANSMISSI 183.70 14.30 8.44 152628
RURAL ELEC.CORP. 118.65 7.30 6.56 632986
» More on Top Gainers
Pricing pressures, regulatory worries for Dr Lal Pathlabs and Thyrocare
 
A muted June quarter performance on the back of pricing pressures coupled with worries on regulatory action could hamper the near-term outlook for diagnostic companies. The largest listed diagnostic players, Dr Lal Pathlabs and Thyrocare Technologies have indicated that competitive intensity in the sector is high.
 
Given the focus on higher volumes, some of the pressures on pricing could continue to hamper the profitability of the companies. Disappointing June quarter This was reflected in the June quarter performance both on volumes and margins. READ MORE
This PSU stock zoomed over 100% in one month
 
Hindustan Organic Chemicals (HOCL) was locked in upper circuit of 10% at Rs 39.60 on the BSE on back of heavy volumes.
 
HOCL had posted a robust set of numbers for the quarter ended June 2018 (Q1FY19). The company reported a net profit of Rs 402 million in Q1FY19, on back of strong growth in operational revenue. It posted a net loss of Rs 498 million in June 2018 quarter and loss of Rs 896 million in March 2018 quarter. READ MORE
SECTOR WATCH Aviation

For India’s domestic airlines, the Jan-July’18 span brought a ~22% yoy growth in passengers (PAX), at ~80mn travelers. Even in the off-season month of July’18, PAX growth was in line with the YTD trend, with domestic carriers achieving ~21% yoy growth. Load factor for most players has delivered yoy improvement. Among major carriers, Indigo PAX grew ~32% yoy during July’18 which took its market share to 42.1% (+80bps qoq).

Spicejet continues to report 90%+ PLF, highest in its peer set. Also, Air India/Jet Airways show ~140bps/~440bps PLF improvement on qoq basis to 82.3%/83.9% respectively. Although, PAX was robust, pressure on tariffs and the declining sector profitability due to cut-throat competition and crude price rise remain a key concern

(Source: IIFL report)


Edelweiss on Dabur

Dabur remains amongst our top picks in staples. And, our recent interaction with the top management reaffirms our confidence in the company’s ability to sustain double digit volume growth in FY19. Key strategic initiatives that bolster our optimism are: (i) focus on innovation & improving market leadership; (ii) aggressive ad spends; and (iii) enhancing direct distribution (Project Buniyaad).

In our view, Dabur is best placed to regain share from some of the herbal companies that are facing a slowdown. This coupled with improving rural economy bodes well for Dabur. Hence, we raise our target multiple to 50x (45x earlier) and arrive at revised TP of INR560 (INR505 earlier). Maintain ‘BUY’
Markets at noon

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 38,641.93 +390.13 +1.02
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 12,218.64 +115.72 +0.96
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 35,094.42 +223.96 +0.64
 
S&P BSE 100 11,977.86 +107.86 +0.91
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,722.06 +51.07 +1.39

Product mix to aid SAIL's realisations; analysts remain positive on stock
 
With much-delayed expansions getting onstream, SAIL has been posting a consistent improvement in performance over the last few quarters and the June quarter was no different. Its operating profit per tonne at Rs 7,877 is a significant improvement over Rs 86 in the year-ago quarter and reflects a 13 per cent rise on a sequential basis.
 
These levels are the highest since FY10. While volume growth remains strong led by expansions and robust demand, it is the improved realisations and cost controls that have driven profitabilty. READ MORE
Nifty Bank up 1%, top gainers in the pack

COMPANY LATEST PREV CLOSE GAIN() GAIN(%) VOLUME
RBL BANK 627.10 609.70 17.40 2.85 2150180
YES BANK 383.20 374.20 9.00 2.41 3732191
KOTAK MAH. BANK 1278.60 1254.50 24.10 1.92 843297
IDFC BANK 47.75 46.85 0.90 1.92 3009922
ICICI BANK 336.05 330.15 5.90 1.79 5679471

LIC Housing Finance falls 7% post June quarter results
 
Shares of LIC Housing Finance dipped 7% to Rs 531 on the BSE in intra-day trade in otherwise strong market after the company reported disappointing April-June quarter (Q1FY19) results.
 
LIC Housing Finance reported 18% year on year (YoY) growth in net profit at Rs 4.79 billion in Q1FY19 on account of lower provisions under the IndAS framework. Net interest income grew 6.6% YoY at Rs 9.94 billion. READ MORE
Pharma, IT, FMCG sectors are back on investor's radar
 
With the markets at an all-time high amid global and local uncertainties that lie ahead, investors seem to be gradually allocating more money towards classical defensive plays such as pharmaceuticals (pharma), information technology (IT) and fast moving consumer goods stocks.
 
Thus far in August, the Nifty FMCG and Nifty IT indices have gained around 5 per cent each, as compared to 2 per cent rise in the Nifty 50 index. The Nifty Pharma index, on the other hand, moved up nearly 10 per cent during this period to hit its 52-week high of 10,142 last week. READ MORE


ICICI Prudential MF sells I-Sec shares and starts paying back investors
 
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has started the process of crediting back to the five schemes that had invested Rs 2.4 billion in ICICI Securities on the last day of the latter’s Initial Public Offer (IPO) of equity.
 
The matter had come under the scanner of the markets regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). READ MORE
Sebi planning to deploy technology to beef up monitoring activities
 
Eyeing a major technological leap in its surveillance and investigation functions, markets watchdog Sebi plans to build a private data storage cloud, automate its inspection of brokers and make greater use of data analytics.
 
Besides, the regulator is looking to put in place new and advanced software tools to help in its monitoring of mutual funds and for sharing of information with other regulators. READ MORE
Infosys gains on fixing record date for 1:1 bonus
 
Shares of Infosys was up 1% to Rs 1,397 on the BSE in early morning trade after the information technology (IT) firm said it has fixed September 5, 2018 as record date for the purpose of allotment of bonus shares/stock dividend. The stock will turn ex-date for bonus shares on September 4, 2018.
 
The stock of Infosys had underperformed the market in last week, by falling 3.6% after the company’s chief financial officer (CFO) MD Ranganath decided to leave the company. READ MORE
Market Check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 38,601.02 +349.22 +0.91
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 12,207.39 +104.47 +0.86
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 35,017.59 +147.13 +0.42
 
S&P BSE 100 11,964.53 +94.53 +0.80
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,712.13 +41.14 +1.12

Gold close to bottoming out?
 
When there is excessive currency volatility, people turn to alternative investments. That's often precious metals or more recently, cryptocurrency. Fear of high inflation also leads investors to precious metals, or cryptocurrency. There is plenty of currency volatility at the moment, and the consensus is that it's likely to continue.
 
There are also inflation fears. Metals are up due to rising demand and crude oil is up due to fears of supply disruption as the US looks to sanction Iran. READ MORE
Edelweiss on LIC Housing Finance

Though LIC Housing Finance’s (LICHF) Q1FY19 PAT came optically in line, operating metrics trends were below expectations, reflected in softer growth, NIMs and asset quality pressure. Key disappointments were: a) softer individual disbursements (mere 5% YoY) leading to sustained pressure on individual AUM growth (13% YoY); b) NIMs dipped QoQ despite PLR hike leading to sub 7% YoY NII growth; and c) GNPLs  spiked to 1.2% with rise in individual and corporate segments.

Despite the soft core growth momentum, we believe investment in marketing offices, traction in affordable housing and recent PLR hikes will boost momentum going forward. We estimate earnings CAGR of >18% over FY18-20 leading to 17-18% RoE. Maintain ‘BUY’.
Interview of the day Hard to see participants increasing exposure to mid-caps: Ambit Capital MD
 
The markets put aside global concerns and continued their movement upwards last week. PRAMOD GUBBI, managing director and head of institutional equities at Ambit Capital, tells Puneet Wadhwa that due to India-specific macro concerns, global liquidity tightening and political risks, foreign flows will likely be neutral to negative going ahead. Read full interview here


Sectoral Trend: All indices trade in green


Top Sensex gainers and losers


Markets at Open

At 9:17 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 38,499, up 247 points while the broader Nifty50 index was ruling at 11,633 up 76 points
Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 38,376.62 +124.82 +0.33
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 12,144.34 +41.42 +0.34
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,966.52 +96.06 +0.28
 
S&P BSE 100 11,909.25 +39.25 +0.33
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,689.93 +18.94 +0.52

Top trading ideas by Devang Shah
 
DHFL - BUY
CLOSE – Rs 655.50
TARGET – Rs 700-740
 
DHFL closed the weekly in negative territory. Its consolidated in a narrow range during the week. Its daily momentum indicators are in BUY. It is trading above 20DMA. One can BUY with a stop loss of Rs-626 for the target of Rs 700-740 levels in short-term.
 
Currency watch by Motilal Oswal Research

Rupee rose following weakness in the dollar against its major crosses and ahead Fed chairman statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In the recent past, rupee has been under pressure primarily on back of global factors than domestic factors. Broad dollar strength has been one of the major factors that led to weakness in major Asian currencies and rupee has been one of the weakest of the pack.

Data released by RBI showed FX reserves for the week ended Aug,24 remained more or less unchanged compared to previous week at $400.84 billion. Today, USDINR pair is expected to open at 69.85(Aug) and expected to quote in the range of 69.60 and 70.05.
Nifty outlook by Devang Shah
 
The short-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 10,929 levels and expecting targets in the range of 11,750- 11,800 levels in short term. Medium term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 9,951 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12,500-12,800 levels in the medium term. READ MORE
ICICI Securities on Somany Ceramics

We believe Somany would be a long term beneficiary of e-way bill & GST implementation as it would reduce the pricing differential between organised & unorganised tiles.

With stabilisation of gas prices, the company’s enhanced focus on improving value added product mix (rising share of Sanitaryware and bath fitting business) and recent price hike of 1-1.5%, we expect Somany’s EBITDA margins to improve 60 bps to 11.1% over FY18-20E. Consequently, Somany’s bottomline is expected to grow by 16.1% YoY to | 104.4 crore. Currently, the stock is trading at 20x FY20E EPS.
 
Strategy: Buy Somany Ceramics in the range of Rs 480-492 for target price of Rs 575.00 with a stop loss of Rs 445.00. Time Frame: Six months
IDBI Capital on Vardhman Textiles

We anticipate average EBITDA margins of 16% for FY19E/20E. We believe better cotton-yarn spreads, stability in raw material prices and ramp up in utilization are key triggers for future growth. At the CMP, VTL trades at 8.8x its FY20E EPS. We maintain our Accumulate rating and value the stock at 10x FY20E EPS giving a target price of Rs1,269
MARKET COMMENT Amar Ambani, head of research, IIFL

As the market gets set for the F&O expiry this week, expect a fair share of volatility in the run up. For now, happiness is likely to dominate the proceedings at start. Auto sales data and movement in the rupee would also be closely watched. Crude prices have come down and that should ease some worries.

The Nifty’s options matrix implies upside shift of trading range and the 11,500 zone could act as immediate floor. Though Friday saw a weak close, RIL and ONGC helped Nifty ascend for the 5th consecutive week. US markets closed higher on Friday and Asian indices are also smiling at start. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that he expects the Fed to continue gradually raising interest rates if the US economic expansion remains strong.
 
Commodity Picks
 
Maize
 
Maize prices in Gulabbagh are trading at Rs 1,266 a quintal. Prices are expected to trade higher towards Rs 1,300 a quintal in the coming days due to limited supplies and higher buying by end-users. Pest attack on crops in Karnataka will also support the prices of maize.
 
Top trading ideas by Prabhudas Lilladher:
 
BUY BHEL
CMP: Rs 80.20
TARGET: Rs 90
STOP LOSS: Rs 74
 
The stock has almost formed a higher bottom formation like pattern in the daily chart taking support at the significant 50 DMA moving average which lies at around 72 levels and has maintained a positive bias. The RSI also has been on the rise and with the chart looking attractive, we anticipate a decent rise from here on to scale till 88-90 levels in the coming days. With good volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 90 keeping a stop loss of 74.

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Nifty outlook by Prabhudas Lilladher:
 
Nifty as mentioned has been consolidating between the range of 11,500-11,620, the trend remains intact as long as long as 11,400 levels are held on decisively. Infra sector after a long time has come out of its consolidation to form an uptrend, along with Pharma which continues to add flavor, Pharma we are looking at a target of 10,500. The support for the week is seen at 37,700/11,380 while resistance is seen at 38,700/11,700. Bank Nifty would have a range of 27,270-28,300.
Forex reserves drop to $400.84 bn due to fall in foreign currency assets
 
India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $33.2 million to $400.847 billion in the week to August 17 mainly due to fall in foreign currency assets, according to RBI data. In the previous week, the forex reserves had witnessed a drop of $1.822 billion to $400.881 billion.
 
The reserves have been declining in the past few weeks as the Reserve Bank is selling the US dollar to contain depreciation in the rupee, which is frequently testing the 70-level against the American unit. READ MORE
SGX Nifty
 
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 43 points or 0.37 per cent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,617- level on the Singaporean Exchange.
Oil stable as US-Sino trade row weighs
 
Oil prices dipped slightly on Monday on concerns that a U.S.-China trade dispute will erode global economic growth, although looming U.S. sanctions against Iran’s oil sector kept crude from falling further, traders said.
 
International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $75.75 per barrel, down 7 cents from their last close. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 9 cents at $68.63 a barrel.
Jerome Powell signals more hikes if US economy stays strong
 
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled today that he expects the Fed to continue gradually raising interest rates if the US economic expansion remains strong. Powell added that while annual inflation has risen to near the Fed's 2 percent target rate, it doesn't seem likely to accelerate above that point. That suggests that he doesn't foresee a need for the Fed to step up its rate hikes. Next month, the Fed is widely expected to resume raising rates.
Asian shares rise after record highs on Wall Street
 
Asian shares rose early on Monday, taking support from Wall Street’s gains on Friday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a gradual approach to raising rates was best to protect the US economy and job growth.
 
In early Asian trade on Monday, S&P500 E-mini futures touched a record high of 2,885, and were last 0.2 per cent higher at 2,882.5. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.1 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei stock index gained 0.6 per cent.
S&P 500 reaches new high 
 
The benchmark S&P 500 stock index clinched its longest bull-market run on Friday, closing above its previous January high, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed the US central bank's current pace of rate hikes. The S&P had last reached a new closing high on January 26, then retreated more than 10 per cent, a correction that lasted until February 8. Friday's new closing high confirmed that the index's bull run remained intact.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 133.37 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 25,790.35, the S&P 500 gained 17.71 points, or 0.62 per cent, to 2,874.69 and the Nasdaq Composite added 67.52 points, or 0.86 per cent, to 7,945.98.
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