MARKET WRAP: Sensex falls 509 pts, Nifty at 11,287 as rupee hits fresh low

The benchmark indices settled over 1 per cent lower as the rupee hit a new record low of 72.72 in intra-day deals.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 37,413, down 509 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,287, down 151 points. In the broader markets, both S&P BSE MidCap and S&P BSE SmallCap ended 1.4 per cent lower.

Shares of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies were under pressure with Nifty FMCG index hitting its six-week low, falling 8% so far in the current month on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on valuation concerns in intra-day deals. ITC, Godrej Consumer Products, Colgate Palmolive (India), Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Marico and Jubilant FoodWorks among the key FMCG stocks that lost up to 4% on the NSE.

Investors have lost a whopping Rs 4.2 trillion in the stock markets in past two trading sessions after the benchmark indices fell more than 2% as the rupee hit new lows, while fears of an escalation in the US-China tariff dispute continued to haunt investors in broader Asian markets. READ MORE

Market voice

Marc Faber, a renowned global investor and editor and publisher of ‘The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report' told Business Standard in an interview that he finds Indian stocks expensive at the current levels. READ THE FULL INTERVIEW HERE


Global Markets

Asian shares were struggling to avoid a ninth straight session of losses on Tuesday as the spectre of a further escalation in the Sino-US trade war haunted investors, while the pound perched at a five-week top on hints a Brexit deal might be nearer.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.05 per cent but did hold above lows last visited in July last year. Shanghai blue chips dipped 0.2 per cent while South Korea fell 0.2 per cent as investors awaited the next round of trade hostilities.

(with Reuters inputs)


MARKET COMMENT Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking

The bears continued to dominate on Tuesday, as the Indian equity benchmark indices fell sharply for second straight session. A continued sharp fall in rupee to a new record low (vs USD), firm crude oil prices and weak global cues impacted the sentiments on the domestic bourses and dragged the Nifty index down to an intra-day low of 11,274 before it closed the session at 11,288 levels. 

With lack of any positive triggers on the domestic bourses and ongoing global uncertainties, weakness in market could continue in the coming sessions. The near-term direction will be dictated by key domestic macro data like July IIP, Aug CPI (due Wednesday) & Aug WPI (due on September 14). Further, the strengthening crude oil prices, weakening INR (vs USD), widening CAD and mounting tensions over trade war is certainly a worrisome factor for the Indian market and could continue to induce high volatility in the index. We advise investors and traders to remain selective in stock picking
Nifty FMCG index ends 2.4% lower. Top losers:

GODREJ CONSUMER 1248.25 1298.10 -49.85 -3.84 1462477
ITC 297.20 306.55 -9.35 -3.05 25990181
UNITED SPIRITS 578.30 595.20 -16.90 -2.84 1961814
TATA GLOBAL 216.00 222.00 -6.00 -2.70 3504972
JUBILANT FOOD. 1353.30 1390.55 -37.25 -2.68 1061089

Here's how the sectoral indices on NSE performed today
BSE Sensex: Power Grid, Tata Steel top losers of the day

Markets at close

The S&P BSE Sensex shut shop at 37,413.13, down509.04 points or1.34 per cent while the broader Nifty50 index of National Stock Exchange settled 150.60 points or 1.32 per cent lower at11,287.50. 

NEWS ALERT Rupee hits fresh lifetime low of 72.72 per dollar

Will not let manipulators cash in on market volatility: Sebi

Market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) Tuesday warned that the manipulators will not be allowed to take advantage of the volatility in the stock market. READ MORE
Unilever single holding company shares to start trading in December

Consumer goods giant Unilever said simplifying its parent company structure from two UK and Dutch legal entities into a single holding company would conclude in December, when shares in the new firm would start trading.
The Anglo-Dutch maker of Dove soap, Lipton teas and Ben & Jerry's ice cream said the simplification would be achieved through a UK scheme of arrangement and a Dutch legal merger. READ MORE

Top losers in BSE 500:

POWER FIN.CORPN. 81.50 -6.95 -7.86
MAX FINANCIAL 473.10 -31.30 -6.21
MAHINDRA CIE 279.35 -18.45 -6.20
SWAN ENERGY 150.10 -9.30 -5.83
CHOLAMAN.INV.&FN 1309.05 -77.95 -5.62
» More on Top Losers
Once-in-a-life deals fuel $100-billion mergers-and-acquisitions boom

The biggest mergers-and-acquisitions (M&As) boom in Indian history has investment bankers preparing for even more deal-making to come. Transactions involving Indian companies have reached $104.5billion in 2018, trouncing the previous annual record, with almost four months left in the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The tally may surpass $100 billion again in 2019, said Sanjeev Krishan, a Gurgaon-based partner at PwC India, who focuses on private equity and deals. READ MORE
Amidst falling rupee, RBI adds another 6.8 tonnes of gold to forex reserves

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has found solace in gold as its foreign currency reserves are concerned. In July, the central bank added another 6.8 tonnes of gold to its forex reserves which are the highest monthly addition to the reserves so far after 2009. READ MORE

Market Check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 37,765.74 -156.43 -0.41
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,918.44 -57.22 -0.48
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,197.05 -67.93 -0.20
S&P BSE 100 11,681.86 -51.01 -0.43
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,601.90 -18.58 -0.51

(Source: BSE)
Global market check

HANG SENG 10-09-2018 26613.42 26973.47 -360.05 -1.33
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 10-09-2018 2669.49 2702.31 -32.82 -1.21
MERVAL 11-09-2018 29455.22 29811.22 -356.00 -1.19
TAIWAN WEIGHTED 10-09-2018 10725.80 10846.99 -121.19 -1.12
NZX 50 INDEX 10-09-2018 9048.63 9095.39 -46.76 -0.51

Global markets update
Hong Kong's benchmark index Hang Seng slips into bear market; falls 20% from January high
Unlisted companies have to issue new shares in demat form from Oct 2: Govt

Unlisted public companies have to compulsorily issue new shares in demat form beginning October 2, the government said Tuesday. Besides, transfer of shares has to be done only in the demat or electronic form.

This step has been taken for "further enhancing transparency, investor protection and governance in the corporate sector," the Corporate Affairs Ministry said in a release. READ MORE
Market outlook by Sharekhan

Long-term outlook on Indian equities continues to remain positive and we feel that any correction should be used to buy into quality companies with strong earning visibility and future growth potential. We like HDFC ltd in Financial space and L&T in capital goods & engineering space. One can accumulate quality stocks in tranches.
Will Bank of England (BoE) hike rates on Thursday?

We expect the Bank of England to keep Bank rate at 0.75% in a unanimous vote on Thursday. This is the consensus view as well and the GBP OIS curve implies a 0% chance of a rate hike. After raising rates in August, the MPC will now be in wait-and-see mode while putting emphasis on the risk of further tightening should there be an inflationary no-deal Brexit.

Even though Brexit ‘shouldn’t handicap policy making’, the MPC will nonetheless only start thinking about raising rates again when it has a better idea of what Brexit will look like. We view May 2019 as the first realistic opportunity for the MPC to raise Bank rate to 1.00%.

(Source: Rabobank International note)
HDFC Securities on Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF)

Management expects strong traction in CVs sales and the new axle load norms to  help post double digit volume growth to >140-145k tons in FY19E vs 122k in  FY18  (65%  domestic  and  35%  exports).  We  expect  RMKF to register Revenue/PAT  CAGR  of 17/24% over FY18-21E on the back of a robust domestic CV  cycle,  market  share gains, increased content per truck (via producing new  components)  and favourable operating leverage. However new capex will result  in  higher interest/depreciation) cost and limit free cash flow. We value the stock Rs 908 (18x Sept-20E EPS) and recommend a BUY
Antique Stock Broking on Dr Reddy's

The company has identified core areas of growth: a) given the company's legacy strength in complex APIs, it is likely to intensify efforts in complex generics and develop dossiers for world markets. Focus will remain squarely on oral solids and injectables; b) double the number of marketed molecules in US in the coming years; c) capitalize on the first-mover advantage in China and increase the filing tempo; d) break into top-10 league in India; and e) keep enhancing the compliance processes at Dr.Reddy's plants by introducing global best practices. Maintain BUY with a revised target price of Rs 2,950 based on 21x Sep'20 earnings.
Prabhudas Lilladher on capital goods sector

Corporates believe awarding activity/momentum is likely to stay for next 2-3 quarters as government tries to award increased number of projects with an eye on elections. The fact that government is in the last year of its current term in our view will expedite execution to show case their achievement. Most corporates continue to be confident of medium-term growth prospects, given the various initiatives taken by the government.

Being on the cusp of a change, we prefer companies with sustainable competitive advantage and those which can deliver sustained earnings growth over the next few years. Our preferred picks are L&T, Voltas, Cummins India, Crompton Consumer and Bharat Electronics.
Edelweiss on Indian Hotes

Indian Hotels Company’s (IHCL) FY18 annual report indicates robust growth in standalone profitability over FY16-18. While EBITDA of key domestic subsidiaries (Roots Corp, Piem, Benares Hotels) declined YoY, that of key domestic JVs (Taj GVK Hotels, Taj SATS Air Catering) reported strong improvement. International operations (led by US) continued to incur losses and are a drag on consolidated profitability.

Other takeaways: 1) IHCL (standalone) infused additional Rs 0.5bn capital in the overseas arm towards loss funding; 2) standalone trade receivables days rose further to 33 (FY17: 28, FY16: 24); 3) deposits with government authorities (standalone) surged to Rs 944mn (FY17: Rs 551mn); 4) goodwill stood at Rs 5.6bn (~14% of net-worth; FY17: Rs 5.5bn); and 5) contingent liability towards taxes jumped to Rs 4.4bn (FY17: Rs 2.8bn).
Top losers in BSE 500:

MAX FINANCIAL 481.60 -22.80 -4.52
ASHOKA BUILDCON 131.50 -5.00 -3.66
SWAN ENERGY 153.60 -5.80 -3.64
HIMADRI SPECIALT 124.20 -4.50 -3.50
PHILLIPS CARBON 228.95 -7.15 -3.03
» More on Top Losers
Strong successor taking up the top job could improve Axis Bank fortunes

The Street gave thumbs up to the stock of Axis Bank, India's third-largest private sector bank, following its announcement that Amitabh Chaudhry would succeed Shikha Sharma as its head. In fact, Axis was the only one among frontline banking stocks to end in the green, with a gain of one per cent on a day when the broader indices shed over 1.2 per cent. READ MORE


HCL Tech share buyback offer to open on September 18, close on October 3
Saksoft hits new high on credit rating upgrade; stock surges 14%

Shares of Saksoft have rallied 14% to Rs 343 per share, extending their 6% gain on the BSE in the past two days, after the rating agency CARE Rating upgraded the long-term bank facilities of the company with a positive outlook. The stock of information technology (IT) software products firm was trading at its 52-week high level on the BSE. READ MORE

GAIL on strong wicket aided by robust LNG demand, share price may rise

GAIL's share price has risen 24 per cent from a May low, on the back of multiple triggers. Rising natural gas prices have eased concern on placement of higher-priced liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the US. READ MORE
COMMENT  Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI

The recent rupee depreciation with the rising crude oil prices has made the headlines and created anxiety. The rupee decline in consonance with rising crude has made a significant impact on domestic petroleum and diesel prices. This windfall gain will have positive impact on State finances, which might push down the states fiscal deficit by 15-20 bps, other things remaining unchanged.

We also estimate that since the states are having an incremental revenue over the budgeted one, they could cut on an average petrol prices by Rs. 3.20 /litre and diesel by Rs. 2.30/ litre, without affecting their revenue arithmetic, States like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka have the privilege to cut petrol prices by at least Rs. 3 from their existing rates and Rs. 2.5 on diesel. We heartily welcome that Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh have already pared rates.
MUST READ This pharma stock zooms over 100% in five weeks
Shares of Albert David hit a new high of Rs 830, up 10%, surging more than 100% in past five weeks in otherwise weak market. The stock of pharmaceutical company zoomed 103% from Rs 408 on August 7, as compared to 0.58% rise in the S&P BSE Sensex.
Albert David had reported a net profit of Rs 78.4 million in June quarter against a net loss of Rs 8.30 million during the same quarter last fiscal. Operation income of the company increased 73% to Rs 944 million from Rs 546 million in previous year quarter. READ MORE
Markets at noon

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 37,809.37 -112.80 -0.30
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,935.39 -40.27 -0.34
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,255.10 -9.88 -0.03
S&P BSE 100 11,698.83 -34.04 -0.29
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,606.88 -13.60 -0.38

10 yrs of Lehman collapse: How a crisis snowballed into a global meltdown

The first tremors of the global financial crises could perhaps be traced back to when the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) said in February 2007 that it would no longer buy risky subprime mortgages, nor would it invest in related securities. READ MORE
Sebi mulls allowing NRIs through FPI route after meeting specific KYC norms
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is looking at including non-resident Indians (NRIs) in the foreign portfolio investors quota. Sources said the regulator had written to the central government, seeking its opinion on this.
The move could open a new source for foreign inflows into the country, as NRIs are currently not big investors because of regulatory curbs. READ MORE
Power cos gain post SC's stay on RBI circular

TATA POWER CO. 76.30 73.70 2.60 3.53 242893
NLC INDIA 73.95 73.15 0.80 1.09 3506
RELIANCE INFRA. 469.50 464.60 4.90 1.05 131261
RELIANCE POWER 36.20 35.95 0.25 0.70 274532
NHPC LTD 25.35 25.20 0.15 0.60 30502
TORRENT POWER 254.55 253.10 1.45 0.57 45882


RBI's plea in SC to be heard in November

SC asks RBI, parties to maintain status quo with regard to insolvency proceedings against power cos

Relief for power cos: SC transfers all pleas filed before different HCs to itself in Power NPAs case
Nifty FMCG index hits six-week low; ITC, Godrej Consumer down 2%
Shares of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies were under pressure with Nifty FMCG index hitting its six week low, falling 8% so far in the current month on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on valuation concerns.
ITC, Godrej Consumer Products, Colgate Palmolive (India), Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Marico and Jubilant FoodWorks were trading lower in the range of 1% to 3% on the NSE. READ MORE
Beneficial ownership norms to hit global PEs due to 'disclosure' rule
Global private equity (PE) funds are likely to be among those most affected by the beneficial ownership norms notified by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs under Section 90 of the Companies Act, 2013.
According to the new rules, a company can suspend control rights on its shares if the PE fund does not disclose the beneficial owner. READ MORE
INTERVIEW OF THE DAY Indian stocks are expensive; rupee can hit 100/$: Marc Faber

Oil prices, trade war fears and a plunging rupee has somewhat derailed the equity market rally in India over the past few weeks. MARC FABER, Editor and Publisher of ‘The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’ tells Puneet Wadhwa that global stock and bond markets are in a bubble zone. Markets and central banks, he says, have not learnt any lessons from the 2008 financial crisis READ MORE HERE

Marc Faber

More trouble for IL&FS as ICRA downgrades rating for its various units
Rating agency ICRA has downgraded rating for various group companies of IL&FS, showing cascading effect of liquidity pressure and leverage faced by group holding company and power sector entity.
The rating action follows the significant weakening of the financial risk profile of the parent company-IL&FS Energy Development Company Ltd (IEDCL) and the ultimate holding company Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd (IL&FS). READ MORE
Suven Life Sciences nears record high; stock surges 30% in one week

Shares of Suven Life Sciences hit a 52-week high of Rs 338, up 6%, gaining 30% in past one week on the BSE in an otherwise weak market. On comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 0.58% during the period. READ MORE
Market Check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 37,931.51 +9.34 +0.02
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,969.94 -5.72 -0.05
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,303.43 +38.45 +0.11
S&P BSE 100 11,730.10 -2.77 -0.02
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,617.53 -2.95 -0.08

Rupee to hit 73 by Mar 2019; fiscal target to be breached, says report
India is the only major emerging market having a negative balance of payments (BoP) and the pressure is expected to sustain, a Swiss brokerage said Monday, expecting the rupee to depreciate to 73 by March 2019.
Shortfalls in GST collection and divestments, coupled with state finances being under strain will take the consolidated fiscal deficit to 6.5 per cent in FY19, against the government’s budget estimate of 5.9 per cent, UBS said. READ MORE

Illustration by Ajay Mohanty

Global financial crisis: Lessons for India from the 2008 crisis and beyond
The years since the global financial crisis of 2008 have brought into sharp focus the importance of managing financial stability in the Indian context. Post the crisis, developed economies focused solely on fostering growth, relegating fears around inflation and deficits into the background.
In India’s case, however, when we focused on growth, we allowed financial instability from twin deficits, banking stress and inflation to set in. This led to our own economic crisis of 2013. READ MORE

COMMENT Kotak Securities on economy

External sector remains at risk. CAD/GDP at 2.4% in 1QFY19 even with higher invisibles net receipts and overall balance at (-)US$11.3 bn highlighted the challenges that India’s external sector balance faces in FY2019. We estimate CAD/GDP at 2.8% in FY2019 with overall balance at (-)US$34 bn compared to US$43.6 bn in FY2018. Intensifying EM crisis, fear of a contagion and broad-based USD strength coupled with deteriorating domestic macro scenario and domestic political uncertainty are expected to keep the INR under pressure. We expect USD-INR to range 69-74 for rest of FY2019
Motilal Oswal Securities on Sun Pharma

We raise EPS estimates by 1%/3% for FY19/FY20 to factor in the favorable currency movement. We also raise our P/E multiple to 27x from 25x 12M Forward Earnings as we expect a premium to industry average for Sun Pharma to expand.

Incremental generics business from new launches, which should be higher than base business erosion, increased traction in specialty products and sustained outperformance in the domestic formulation business should drive growth. Accordingly, we revise our target price to Rs 790 (from Rs 700 earlier).
Elara Capital on Wipro

Despite risk of further downside in HPS in 3QFY19, investors should not let short-term potential setback to affect their medium-term investment thesis for Wipro. We expect improving competitiveness will help it match or exceed peer average growth. We arrive at a new TP of Rs 395 from Rs 300 on 17x (from 13x) FY20E P/E.

Our FY20 estimates are well ahead of Consensus on EBITDA and PAT. We revise our rating to Buy from Accumulate, as we see parts of the portfolio already growing at a faster pace than peers, and expect Wipro to match or exceed Infosys’ revenue growth over FY20; we recommend switching from Infosys to Wipro, given Infosys is trading at 20x FY20E P/E
Technical view from ICICI Securities

In coming sessions, the Nifty needs to sustain above last week’s low of 11393, as holding above the same would keep pullback options open towards upper band of ongoing consolidation around 11650 amid stock specific action. Otherwise, the Nifty would see prolonging of the corrective phase towards 11250-11200 range in coming weeks. We believe 11393 is the key level to watch
Nifty sectoral trend

BSE Sensex opening gainers and losers

Market at open
At 9:15 AM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 38,009, up 87 points while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 11,471, up 33 points.
Markets at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
S&P BSE SENSEX 38,040.59 +118.42 +0.31
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 12,049.84 +74.18 +0.62
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 34,408.75 +143.77 +0.42
S&P BSE 100 11,801.70 +68.83 +0.59
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,658.38 +37.90 +1.05


Rupee opens at Rs 72.30 against US dollar
Nifty outlook by anand Rathi Research
The Index closed in the positive territory in the last trading session and it has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts. The momentum indicator too is in sell mode, hence we recommend to sell Nifty for the target of 11312 levels with a stop loss of 11560 levels.
Top trading ideas by Anand Rathi Research
Target: Rs 176
Stop Loss: Rs 165
The stock has formed a symmetrical triangular pattern in its wave 4 and wave 5 up is likely. The momentum indicator too is well into the buy mode.
Stock calls by Prabhudas Lilladher
CMP: Rs 54.05
TARGET: Rs 61.50
The stock has witnessed a good run in the past 2-3 weeks from the bottom made at around 36 levels and has maintained a positive bias with a rising trend. Currently, the stock has moved past the significant 200DMA moving average level indicating a breakout and has made the stock to look attractive and with the RSI and MACD on the rise with good volume activity witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 61.50 keeping a stop loss of 50.

Click here for more
Outlook on Nifty by Prabhudas Lilladher
The market has got in to its corrective mode supported by technical indicators and volatility index also on rising indicating some more correction to set in. The support for the day is seen at 37,680/11,370 while resistance is seen at 38,150/11,500. Bank Nifty also in sync with Nifty is in corrective would have a range of 26,940-27,460. Rupee too closed at its all-time low, it is time for it to show some reversal, while crude continues with its upward move. Nifty would have its near-term support at 11,250 levels.
Today's picks
Current price: Rs 247
Target price: Rs 242
Keep a stop at Rs 250 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 243 and Rs 244. Book profits at Rs 242.
Current price: Rs 668
Target price: Rs 680
Keep a stop at Rs 663 and go long. Add to the position between Rs 675 and Rs 678. Book profits at Rs 680.

Click here for mroe
Rupee ends at record closing low of 72.45/$
The Indian rupee ended at its record low note of 72.45 per US dollar on Monday. Multiple factors such as global trade war concerns, selloff in emerging markets along with worries on domestic macro front after trade and current account deficits widened, weighed on it. The currency did manage to recover from its low points, an intraday low of 72.67 per US dollar.
SGX Nifty
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 21 points or 0.18 per cent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,465-level on the Singaporean Exchange.
Oil firm as Iran sanctions loom
Oil was steady on Tuesday, supported by looming US sanctions against Iran’s petroleum industry. But prices were capped by signs that increased supplies by other major producers, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, could make up for the disruptions from Iran.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $67.61 per barrel at 0112 GMT, up 7 cents from their last settlement. Brent crude futures climbed 11 cents to $77.48 a barrel.
Asia shares relieved by trade lull
Asian shares were struggling to snap an eight-session losing streak on Tuesday as investors decided no news was good news on tariffs, while the pound touched a five-week top on hints a Brexit deal might be nearer.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan wavered either side of flat having hit its lowest since July last year on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei fared better on the back of a softer yen and climbed 0.6 per cent.
S&P, Nasdaq edge higher after recent losses
US stocks mostly edged higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounding to snap a four-day losing streak, although a drop in Apple kept gains in check. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 59.47 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 25,857.07, the S&P 500 gained 5.45 points, or 0.19 per cent, to 2,877.13 and the Nasdaq Composite added 21.62 points, or 0.27 per cent, to 7,924.16.
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