The benchmark indices recovered all its initial losses on Monday as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appeared to win Gujarat for a sixth term, but Nifty50 failed to end above its crucial 10,400 mark
Earlier in the session, the indices had dropped as much as 2.5% each, posting their biggest intraday loss in more than a year as initial counting showed a close fight between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the main opposition Congress party.
The Election Commission of India will announce the Assembly election results on eci.nic.in.
Exit poll findings had also given the BJP an upper hand in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.
Overseas, Asian shares edged up with sentiment boosted by expectations US lawmakers will pass a long-awaited tax bill this week, while Chinese stocks were soggy on concerns about liquidity and tighter regulations in the world’s second largest economy.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services
Market recovered from the initial disruption after a clear victory for government in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh state election. Increased investors sentiment will attract liquidity in the market while participants focused on the fulcrum of improvement in fundamentals to strengthen the valuation. Triggers like earnings season and global market movement will be closely watched for any earnings upgrade and US tax reform for the direction.
The breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was positive. On the BSE, 1,437 shares rose and 1,209 shares declined. A total of 178 shares were unchanged.
The S&P BSE Midcap index ended at record high level, up 0.7% to 17104, while the S&P BSE Smallcap index settled at 18252.68, up 0.4%.
It was an eventful day as Nifty witnessed a swing of nearly 400-odd points in early trade and finally settled with gains of over half a percent. Initially, markets reacted sharply on negative side, citing unexpected lead by the Congress in Gujarat election, but not for long. The situation completely reversed in next few minutes as BJP took over Congress in both the states and progressed towards comfortable win. However, volatility remained high on stock-specific front, keeping the uneasiness intact.
Nifty has again reached closer to its record high, clearly indicates that bulls are in control. Participants will now be at ease as there's no major event ahead and global cues will take over. We suggest keeping stock-specific trading approach with bias on the positive side.
5 stocks contribute over half of Sensex's market-cap gain in 2017
Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki India, Hindustan Unilever and Bharti Airtel are the top 5 companies that have contributed more than half of the gain in market capitalisation (market-cap) recorded by S&P BSE Sensex companies thus far in the calendar year 2017 (CY17). READ MORE
Ajay Bodke, CEO & Chief Portfolio Manager, PMS, Prabhudas Lilladher on Gujarat election verdict
BJP's convincing victory in Gujarat after overcoming 22 long years of so called 'anti-incumbancy' is particularly significant as it was achieved despite a virulently castiest campaign unleashed by the Opposition. The demonizing of major structural reforms like the GST and demonetization was squarely rejected by the electorate. This would reinforce government's resolve to roll-on reforms jaggarnaut benefiting the economy & markets. This would lead to an acceleration in foreign and domestic direct and portfolio investments.
Oil edges up on pipeline outage
Oil edged up on Monday, lifted by an ongoing North Sea pipeline outage and over signs that booming US crude output growth may be slowing, although the outlook for oil markets cites ample supplies despite ongoing production cuts led by OPEC.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $57.39 a barrel, up 9 cents or 0.2% from their last settlement.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $63.37 a barrel, up 14 cents or 0.2% from their last close. READ MORE
JM Financial on Havells India
Havells, in its recent investor meet, showcased the senior/middle management team and elaborated various initiatives taken to remain at top of its game and continue to be ahead of industry. The company has hired over 43 senior professionals across business verticals in past 18 months to strengthen various aspect of the company (product innovation, technology, distribution and so on) and continues to offer innovative products across categories. It talked about various strategic initiatives to grow market share (aims to be among top 3-5 players across product categories) and remains confident about the medium-long term business prospects. While we like the company’s holistic approach towards business segments and execution track record, we maintain our HOLD rating on account of fair valuation.
Reliance Securities on JSW Steel
JSW Steel closed ~4% higher in trading beating the NSE Metal Index by over 1% and supported by ~1.4x its 2-week average traded volume.
Domestic HRC prices continue to remain firm in-line with International steel prices and is currently trading at Rs39,500/tonne up 6% since 1st April 2017.
JSTL’s sales volume in 2QFY18 recorded at the highest level in any July-September quarter, partially aided by higher exports. We expect the momentum to continue as we envisage imports to contract due to continued anti-import measures by the government.
JSTL continues to be the best bet on domestic steel sector due to efficient operations, lean cost structure and huge potential for volume.
We are positive on the stock with a Target Price of Rs 282.
Elections over, markets to now focus on earnings, budget, macros
With the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) likely to be back in driver's seat in Gujarat and a possible win in Himachal Pradesh (HP) in the recent assembly elections, analysts expect markets' focus in the short-to-medium term to shift back to macro-economic data, corporate earnings growth, pace of reforms and the upcoming budget in February. CLICK HERE FOR MORE
BSE Midcap index hits new high
The S&P BSE Midcap index hit a new high of 17,184 on the BSE in intra-day deal on Monday after a healthy gain in public sector banks (PSBs), metals and Adani Group stocks. The index surpassed its previous high of 17,133 touched on December 11, 2017 in intra-day trade.
At 12:19 PM; the midcap index was trading 1% higher at 17,174, bouncing back 3.5% or 570 points as the counting of votes showed Bharatiya Party Party (BJP) leading in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. The index touched low of 16,605 in early morning trade. READ FULL REPORT
Markets extend gains
Sensex was up over 300 points, just 65 points away from its all-time high of 33865.95, while Nifty was trading comfortably above 10,400.
Gujarat election results: BJP leads in 107 seats
As per the trends available for 182 seats, the BJP is ahead in 107 seats, while the Congress candidates have a slight edge over their BJP opponents in a few constituencies. The NCP is leading on one seat. READ MORE DETAILS
Shares of public sector banks (PSBs) were in focus with the Nifty PSU bank index rallying more than 7% from its early morning lows on National Stock Exchange (NSE).
At 11:49 AM; Nifty PSU Bank index, the largest gainer among sectoral indices, was up 3% at 3,854 as compared to 0.81% rise in the benchmark Nifty 50 index. Nifty PSU Bank index has rallied 7.4% from its early morning low of 3,587. Nifty Private Bank and Nifty Bank index were up 1% each. READ FULL REPORT
At 12:35 pm, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 33,755, up 292 points, while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 10,428, up 95 points.
The GST Council has approved nation-wide implementation of the e-way bill pertaining to inter-state movement of goods from Feb 1 2018 and intra-state movement of goods from June 1 2018. We believe the E-way bill will: 1) empower the government to curb tax evasion and unauthorised movement of goods across the country; 2) will be a major deterrent for unorganised players; 3) reduce tax evasion; and 4) improve compliance and tax collections thereof. As highlighted in our recent report, under the GST regime effective implementation of e-way bill will result in shift of trade from unorganised to organised segment and widen the tax base over long term. Building materials (plywood, tiles), plastic pipes, consumer durables/ electricals and logistics companies would be key beneficiaries.
The winners and losers in the Trump Tax Bill
With the Bill finally headed to a vote this coming week, taxpayers are scrambling to determine whether the legislation renders them winners or losers. READ MORE
M&M, Maruti Suzuki, HDFC Bank hit record highs
HDFC Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Maruti Suzuki India from the S&P BSE Sensex have hit their respective record highs after a recovery of more than 1,000 points in the benchmark index as Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead in more than 100 seats in Gujarat election.
Gail (India), Graphite India, Balkrishna Industries, Relaxo Footwear, Sun TV Network, Titan Company, Greenply Industries, Century Plyboards (India), Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Company were among 17 stocks from the S&P BSE 500 index touched their new highs on the BSE in intra-day trade on Monday. READ MORE
IIFL on Kalpataru Power & Transmission
Kalpataru Power & Transmission Ltd (KPTL) is set to benefit from strong spends across segments viz, Power T&D, Railways and Oil & Gas pipeline infrastructure. Railways and O&G pipeline business, expected to surge over the next three years, would offset the slower growth in domestic T&D business. KPTL has managed to expand its global footprint to emerge as a leading player in the international power T&D EPC space. With an orderbook of +Rs 100 billion and robust pipeline across segments, KPTL should achieve revenue CAGR of 15.6% over FY17-20E. Margins are likely to stay healthy given the fact that infra business margins have risen to the level of core T&D business margins of 10-11%. Strong cashflows would reduce interest costs as a % of sales, thereby driving earnings growth of 19.8% over the period FY17-20E. Maintaining our Buy recommendation, we have arrived at a target price of Rs.585. Adjusted for asset values and JMC projects, the company currently trades at 11.1x FY20 P/E, which is reasonably attractive considering strong earnings growth and improving return ratios expected over FY17-20.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has asked industry body, the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), to tone down its hugely successful ad campaign carrying the slogan ‘Mutual Funds Sahi Hai’.
The securities market regulator is concerned that the ads could persuade investors into buying mutual fund (MF) products without understanding the risks associated with them. READ FULL REPORT
Shares of Adani Group companies have recovered by up to 18% from their early morning lows on hopes that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will retain power in Gujarat.
Adani Enterprises, the flagship company of the Gujarat based Adani Group, was trading 1% higher at Rs 156, recovering 18% from its intra-day low of Rs 132 on the BSE. The stock hit an intra-day high of Rs 158 so far. READ MORE
Rupee crashes 68 paise to 64.72 a dollar
The rupee plunged 68 paise to 64.72 against the dollar on Monday after early trends suggested that the BJP and the Congress are neck and neck in Gujarat Assembly sweepstakes after one hour of counting of votes.
The Congress is leading in 7 seats while the BJP is leading in 6 in the Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls as early trends poured in. READ FULL REPORT
Will crude oil prices moderate?
After declining in the first half of 2017, crude oil prices have taken off pretty well since mid-June due to multiple favourable factors. The production discipline of both, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and non-Opec nations, led to global inventories declining through 2017.
This coupled with disruption in US crude oil production due to Cyclone Harvey in August and geopolitical issues in West Asia have contributed to a significant rise in crude oil prices during the second half of 2017. READ MORE
Gujarat election results: BJP leads in 104 seats
The BJP is leading in 107 seats and the Congress in 75, as per the trends available after the first hour of counting
As per the trends available for 182 seats, the BJP is ahead in 104 seats, while the Congress candidates have a slight edge over their BJP opponents in some constituencies. The NCP is leading on one seat. READ MORE
Bitcoin-inspired illicit investment schemes to face regulatory axe
Market watchdog Sebi will come down heavily on illicit 'initial coin offers' seeking public investments with promise of high returns from Bitcoins and other virtual currencies, amid a mushrooming of such schemes in the absence of any regulatory regime.
However, Sebi is not keen to take on the mantle of a regulator for such 'trading' -- currently being offered on a number of so-called exchanges despite there being no rules in this regard -- as the underlying product, which is Bitcoin or any such crypto currency, is not an approved product by RBI or any other agency, top officials said. READ FULL REPORT
EDELWEISS ON MARKETS
Nifty valuations show room for further market rally. We expect Nifty EPS of FY18/19/20 to be 500/600/720 and expect it to scale 12,000 in FY19.
New Listing: Future Supply Chain Solutions makes quiet debut
Future Supply Chain Solutions, the logistics arm of the Kishore Biyani-led Future Group, has made a quiet debut on the bourses by listing at Rs 674, a 1.5% premium against its issue price of Rs 664 per share on the BSE. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the stock listed at Rs 664, at par against its issue price.
At 10:02 am; the stock was trading at Rs 684, a 3% higher against its issue price. It hit a high of Rs 695 and a low of Rs 660 on the BSE in intra-day trade so far. A combined 1.37 million shares changed hands on the NSE and BSE READ MORE HERE
Nirmal Bang on S Chand & Company
S Chand is also looking out for inorganic growth mainly in western and southern India. We expect margins to remain stable. ROCE stands at around 15.4% in FY17 which is low on account of acquisitions, and investment in digital, excluding digital investment ROCE stands at 17.2%. S Chand is likely to do EBITDA of Rs 237.8cr and EPS of Rs 35.1 in FY19E and is trading at EV/Ebitda of 7.3x and PE of 13.9x FY19E EPS. We recommend a BUY on SChand with a target price of Rs 632, based on 18x FY19E EPS (29% return)
Sensex heatmap in late morning deals
India VIX down 6%
Mid, Smallcap indices fall over 2%; Adani group stocks hit
Shares of midcap and smallcap companies were under pressure on Monday, falling more than 2% each as market awaits Gujarat and Himachal poll verdict.
The S&P BSE Smallcap index tanked 2.7%, or 501 points, at 17,670, while the S&P BSE Midcap index falls 2.2% or 370 points at 16,605 in intra-day trade. The S&P BSE Sensex, too, lost 2.6% or 867 points at 32,595. Both indices, however, recovered as trade progressed. READ FULL REPORT
Gujarat result LIVE: BJP ahead in 96 seats, Congress in 82
The ruling BJP is leading in over 12 seats while its prime rival Congress was ahead on eight seats, as early trends of Assembly polls started pouring in from across Gujarat.
As per the trends available in the first 45 minutes of counting, the BJP is ahead on 12 seats, while the Congress candidates have a slight edge over their BJP opponents in eight constituencies.
Trimming all early gains, the SGX Nifty turned negative with the index ruling at 10,346, down 16 points or 0.15%.
At 9:03 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 33,576, up 113 points, while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 10,363, up 30 points.
India attracts biggest share of foreign flows
India has garnered the biggest share of foreign flows into emerging markets (EM) in 2017 after a gap of two years.
In the past two years, the domestic markets had lost out to others, such as South Korea and Taiwan, as these markets were able to demonstrate better earnings growth. The improving earnings and economic outlook has titled the scales back in favour of Indian equities this year. Large-scale issuances on the primary market side have also helped India attract higher overseas capital. READ MORE
Wall Street on Friday
Wall Street’s three major indexes climbed to record closing highs on Friday with broad-based gains as a long-awaited bill to cut corporate tax rates looked like it would win enough support from lawmakers to pass.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 143.08 points, or 0.58% to 24,651.74, the S&P 500 gained 23.8 points, or 0.90% to 2,675.81 and the Nasdaq Composite added 80.06 points, or 1.17% to 6,936.58.
Asian markets on Monday
Asian shares inched up, tracking Wall Street, which hit record highs on expectations US lawmakers will pass a long-awaited tax bill, while the British pound hovered near 3-week lows amid Brexit talks.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.1% after rising 0.8% last week.
Australian shares were up 0.6%, edging closer to a level not seen since early 2008. Japan's Nikkei rose 1% to 22,795, not far from a 25-year peak of 23,382 set last month.
Interview of the day
Exit polls for the recently held elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh have predicted a victory for the Narendra Modi–led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in both states. GAUTAM CHHAOCHHARIA, head of India research at UBS Securities, tells Business Standard the markets’ focus will be back on corporate earnings, reforms and global events. READ FULL INTERVIEW
Nifty can dip to 9,700 levels if BJP disappoints in Gujarat, say analysts
In a worst-case scenario where Narendra Modi – led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secures less than 100 seats out of 182 that went to poll, analysts expect the Nifty50 to dip to 9,700 levels.
That said, some analysts are also of the view that the markets are already discounting a BJP win in Gujarat even though the margin of victory will be thin. READ FULL REPORT
Short-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 10140 levels and expecting target of 10700-10850 levels in short term. Medium-term outlook for the market remains positive till Nifty trades above 8,968 levels and expecting targets in the range of 12000-12200 levels in medium term. READ MORE
Singapore Nifty indicates positive opening
At 8:25 am, SGX Nifty was trading at 10,388, up 26 points or 0.26%.