MARKET WRAP: Sensex reclaims 36,000, Nifty ends at 10,860 led by financials

Photo: Shutterstock.com
Firm global cues and buying in financial and pharma counters helped domestic benchmark indices settle in the positive territory for the third consecutive session on Friday.

The S&P BSE Sensex gained 269 points or 0.75 per cent to close at 36,077 while the NSE's Nifty50 index ended at 10,860, up 80 points or 0.74 per cent. Out of 50 constituents on the index, 38 ended in the green and rest 12 in the red. 

As many as 8 stocks hit 52-week high on NSE including names such as Bata India and SPL Industries.  On the contrary, 48 securities hit their one-year low. 

On a weekly basis, both the headline indices rose around 1 per cent. 

Buzzing Stocks

Among individual stocks, Lemon Tree Hotels ended 9 per cent higher at Rs 75 apiece on BSE after the company has formed a joint venture (JV) with an affiliate of Warburg Pincus, a leading global private equity firm, to create a co-living platform. The stock climbed as much as 12 per cent in the intra-day trade. 

Real estate developer Peninsula Land surged 12 per cent in the intraday trade after it entered into an agreement to acquire 86 per cent of equity shares of Rockfirst Real Estate, thereby making it a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. The stock eventually settled at Rs 11.34 apiece on BSE, up 5 per cent .

Sectorally, media stocks gained the most with the Nifty Media index rising 48 points or nearly 2 per cent to settle at 2,556. Pharma and financial stocks came second on the list. 

In line with benchmarks, the broader market, too, gained around 1 per cent. The S&P BSE MidCap index ended at 15,360, up 0.93 per cent while the S&P BSE SmallCap index rose 0.86 per cent to settle at 14,606.  

Global Markets

Asia stocks advanced on Friday after Wall Street ended volatile trade in positive territory, adding to the previous session's big gains, although lingering investor jitters helped support safe-haven currencies such as the yen.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.8 per cent. It has fallen 3 per cent so far in December. The Shanghai Composite Index moved up 0.35 per cent. Australian stocks added 1 per cent and South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.5 per cent. Japan's Nikkei bucked the trend and slipped 0.3 per cent, losing some steam after surging nearly 4 per cent on Thursday.

 
Oil Prices

US oil prices rose on Friday to claw back some of the ground they lost in the previous session, but growth in US crude stockpiles and ongoing concerns about the global economy kept markets under pressure.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, were up $1.37, or 3.07 per cent, at $45.98 per barrel, having earlier rising as high as $46.05 per barrel. They ended Thursday down 3.48 per cent, or $1.61, at $44.61 a barrel. Brent crude had yet to trade. It dropped 4.24 per cent, or $2.31, the day before to settle at $52.16 per barrel.

(with Reuters inputs)

4:05 PM IST MARKET COMMENT Hemang Jani, Head - Advisory, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas Indian indices continue to hold positive momentum tracking firm global cues. Nifty ended this week above 10,800 mark led by banking and FMCG stocks. The domestic sentiment remained optimistic with reports that the government is contemplating several incentives for farmers ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Investor to closely track global economic outlook, movement in crude oil and currency along with Q3FY19 earning season due in January.  We believe long term investors can use volatility in the market to their advantage and maintain a stock-specific approach. We prefer Britannia and Hindustan Unilever from consumption space as macro economic indicator are showing signs of improvement and government focus on rural schemes will boost rural consumption

3:37 PM IST Sectoral gainers on NSE

3:36 PM IST Gainers and losers of the day on BSE Sensex

3:34 PM IST Market at close   The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 36,077, up 269 points or 0.75 per cent, while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,860, up 80 points or 0.74 per cent.

3:30 PM IST #Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has given approval to list 7 CPSE on the Stock Exchange through Initial Public Offering (IPO) /Further Public Offer (FPO) pic.twitter.com/Q1EQz02Ebo — Sitanshu Kar (@DG_PIB) December 28, 2018

3:27 PM IST NEWS ALERT Cabinet briefing RS Prasad: 7 PSUs to be listed on stock exchanges through IPOs

3:10 PM IST Gold jumps by Rs 170; silver surges Rs 600 Gold prices Friday rose by Rs 170 to Rs 32,620 per 10 gram at the bullion market in the national capital amid increased demand and firm trend overseas. In line with gold prices, silver also spurted Rs 600 to Rs 39,250 per kg on fresh buying by industrial units and coin makers.   Bullion traders said rise in demand from local jewellers and firm trend overseas helped in the rally of gold. In the international market, gold traded higher at USD 1,278.10 an ounce, while silver was up at USD 15.26 an ounce in New York. READ MORE

2:49 PM IST NEWS ALERT | Peninsula Land enters into an agreement to acquire 86% of equity in Rockfirst Real Estate; stock jumps 9%

2:48 PM IST Oil prices rebound but still weak due to oversupply Oil prices rebounded on Friday, clawing back some of the ground lost this week, but remained close to their lowest levels in more than a year as rising U.S. inventories and concern over global economic growth kept markets under pressure.   Brent crude oil was up $1.20, or 2.3 per cent, at $53.36 a barrel, having earlier risen more than 3 per cent. It had dropped 4.2 per cent on Thursday. US light crude was up $1.20, or 2.7 per cent, at $45.81, after rising 3.6 per cent in early trade. READ MORE

2:34 PM IST Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex

2:16 PM IST ICICI Prudential Life's new strategy fails to click with investors Even after two years of listing, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICI Pru Life), India’s largest private life insurer, is yet to see meaningful gains. While the year started on a high note, gains faded with the stock losing about 15 per cent so far. But the Street remains optimistic. Its leadership position, coupled with undemanding valuations, has kept analysts positive on the stock. But the insurer is set to face earnings trouble in the near term, thanks to its new strategy with respect to its key equity-linked plans or unit-linked insurance plans. Read more

2:09 PM IST ICRA downgrades National Insurance Company's rating to AA from AA+ Rating agency Icra has downgraded the long-term rating for National Insurance Company (NIC) from AA+ to AA. Also, the outlook on the long- term rating has been revised to “negative” from “stable”. According to the Icra report on National Insurance Company, “The rating downgrade was based on the continued weak underwriting performance driven by a high combined ratio, resulting in pressure on profitability, and the high portfolio concentration in the motor and health segments, leading to a weak solvency ratio below the regulatory minimum”. Read more  

LIVE UPDATES

MARKET COMMENT Hemang Jani, Head - Advisory, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

Indian indices continue to hold positive momentum tracking firm global cues. Nifty ended this week above 10,800 mark led by banking and FMCG stocks. The domestic sentiment remained optimistic with reports that the government is contemplating several incentives for farmers ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Investor to closely track global economic outlook, movement in crude oil and currency along with Q3FY19 earning season due in January. 

We believe long term investors can use volatility in the market to their advantage and maintain a stock-specific approach. We prefer Britannia and Hindustan Unilever from consumption space as macro economic indicator are showing signs of improvement and government focus on rural schemes will boost rural consumption
Sectoral gainers on NSE


Gainers and losers of the day on BSE Sensex


Market at close
 
The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 36,077, up 269 points or 0.75 per cent, while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 10,860, up 80 points or 0.74 per cent.

NEWS ALERT Cabinet briefing

RS Prasad: 7 PSUs to be listed on stock exchanges through IPOs
Gold jumps by Rs 170; silver surges Rs 600

Gold prices Friday rose by Rs 170 to Rs 32,620 per 10 gram at the bullion market in the national capital amid increased demand and firm trend overseas. In line with gold prices, silver also spurted Rs 600 to Rs 39,250 per kg on fresh buying by industrial units and coin makers.
 
Bullion traders said rise in demand from local jewellers and firm trend overseas helped in the rally of gold. In the international market, gold traded higher at USD 1,278.10 an ounce, while silver was up at USD 15.26 an ounce in New York. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT | Peninsula Land enters into an agreement to acquire 86% of equity in Rockfirst Real Estate; stock jumps 9%
Oil prices rebound but still weak due to oversupply

Oil prices rebounded on Friday, clawing back some of the ground lost this week, but remained close to their lowest levels in more than a year as rising U.S. inventories and concern over global economic growth kept markets under pressure.
 
Brent crude oil was up $1.20, or 2.3 per cent, at $53.36 a barrel, having earlier risen more than 3 per cent. It had dropped 4.2 per cent on Thursday. US light crude was up $1.20, or 2.7 per cent, at $45.81, after rising 3.6 per cent in early trade. READ MORE

Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


ICICI Prudential Life's new strategy fails to click with investors

Even after two years of listing, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (ICICI Pru Life), India’s largest private life insurer, is yet to see meaningful gains. While the year started on a high note, gains faded with the stock losing about 15 per cent so far. But the Street remains optimistic. Its leadership position, coupled with undemanding valuations, has kept analysts positive on the stock. But the insurer is set to face earnings trouble in the near term, thanks to its new strategy with respect to its key equity-linked plans or unit-linked insurance plans. Read more

ICRA downgrades National Insurance Company's rating to AA from AA+

Rating agency Icra has downgraded the long-term rating for National Insurance Company (NIC) from AA+ to AA. Also, the outlook on the long- term rating has been revised to “negative” from “stable”. According to the Icra report on National Insurance Company, “The rating downgrade was based on the continued weak underwriting performance driven by a high combined ratio, resulting in pressure on profitability, and the high portfolio concentration in the motor and health segments, leading to a weak solvency ratio below the regulatory minimum”. Read more
 
Market check
Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 36,159.59 +352.31 +0.98
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,387.39 +116.16 +1.03
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,928.42 +365.21 +1.12
 
S&P BSE 100 11,174.59 +115.40 +1.04
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,494.78 +33.54 +0.97

Are stocks of non-lending financial institutions a good investment option?

After creating enormous wealth for investors over the past two decades, the banking and non-banking financial institutions (NBFCs) have come under tremendous pressure, owing to mounting non-performing assets (NPAs). Especially post RBI measures to disclose stressed assets and early recognition of NPAs, the growth in profitability of the banks (especially public sector) and NBFCs has become slower than the previous years. READ MORE
Oil watchers see $70 a barrel in 2019 as fears of recession prove misplaced

The world’s biggest banks are reckoning on a rebound in oil prices next year as fears of a recession prove misplaced.
 
The Brent benchmark will average $70 a barrel in 2019, almost a third higher than its price on Thursday, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil analysts. Futures in London and New York plunged this quarter, with volatility soaring in its final week as crude tracked gyrations in equity markets. READ MORE

Web Exclusive Special 26: These stocks consistently outperformed markets for 5 years

Even as the mid-and small-cap indices underperformed in the calendar year 2018 (CY18) with a fall of 15 per cent and 25 per cent respectively, 136 stocks beat market returns in CY18. Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Havells India are among 26 stocks that have outperformed the market in the past five consecutive calendar years.

Of these 26, Bajaj Finance, Associated Alcohols & Breweries, Garware Technologies, Filatex India, Tasty Bite Eatables, Aarti Industries and GMM Pfaudler have seen an over 10-fold surge in price since 2014. Click here to read more
Photo: Shutterstock.com

Mumbai police files charge sheet against brokers in NSEL default case

Mumbai police has filed a voluminous charge sheet in the National Spot Exchange (NSEL) default case against 63 accused, including 27 individuals, and 36 companies. The names include brokers for the first time, especially those whose executives were arrested in the past in this case.
 
NSEL, a spot trading exchange promoted by Financial Technologies (now 63 Moons Technologies), defaulted about Rs 56 billion in 2013 due to the non-payment of money by 24 clients on the exchange floor, hurting 13,000 investors. Read more
 
Top gainers on BSE500

COMPANY PRICE() CHG() CHG(%) VOLUME
LEMON TREE HOTEL 74.70 5.90 8.58 189352
NBCC 57.55 3.55 6.57 1025968
MAHINDRA HOLIDAY 207.50 12.80 6.57 16888
RELIANCE CAPITAL 225.90 11.30 5.27 803024
JAIN IRRIGATION 69.95 2.95 4.40 546219
» More on Top Gainers
PSU banks extend gains; Canara, PNB, Vijaya,Syndicate Bank hit 3-month high

Shares of select public sector undertaking (PSU) banks were trading higher for the third straight day on the report that the central government would release Rs 286.15 billion before the end of this month towards a fresh tranche of funds to recapitalise state-run banks. The sharp moderation in bond yields should significantly boost the treasury performance of the banking sector, especially public sector banks (PSBs). Read more
Dividend a sentiment-positive for Coal India but concerns remain

Coal India has rebounded more than 5 per cent from its lows, seen at start of the month. Though this has been helped by a strong interim dividend of Rs 7.25 a share, concerns on fundamentals remain. While softening international coal prices could put pressure on more profitable e-auction premiums, tepid volume growth could weigh on e-auction volumes. Coal India had reported sales volume growth of 6.5 per cent during the April to November period. Read more

Banking update (Source: Centrum Broking report)

Key trends during the month
 
$ Non-food credit growth has  been on a rise; for the fortnight ended  23rd Nov, 2018 – credit grew 15.3% YoY; strongest in past 5-years; growth in systemic deposits stood at 9.4% YoY. LDR at 76.7% is at its near multi-year high.
 
$ RBI sectoral deployment of credit for Oct, 2018 pointed to growth acceleration in  segments of services  (+27.4% YoY) and personal loan (+16.8% YoY). Banking credit to NBFC space remains healthy (up 55.6% YoY for the month of Oct’ 18 and fourth consecutive month of 40%+ YoY growth); share of credit to NBFC space is now at 7%, highest ever.
 
$ The quarterly statistics study revealed that private players continue to gain market share. As at Sept’18 – private banks accounted for 31% of systemic credit and 25.7% of overall deposits.
 
Systemic rates; bond yields and spread 
 
$ On a YTD basis, policy rates are up 50bps; MCLR is up 40-50bps over the same time.
 
$ The outbreak of default by IL&FS saw corporate bond spread widened. 10-yr AAA corporate bond spread over 10-yr G-sec is at 110bps (5-year average at 80bps); spread of 10yr AA over 10-yr Gsec is at 160bps (vs. 5-year average at 130bps).
 
$ Nov’2018, however has seen some normalcy returning in commercial paper market with Rs2.4tn of new CP issuances (Rs1.75tn in Oct’18 / Rs2.2tn in Sept’18). On a systemic basis, stock of CP O/s. at Rs5.8tn grew 23.4% YoY. 
 
$ The narrowing of spread between 1-yr AAA corporate bond and 1-yr MCLR rates have seen corporate resort to bank borrowing (over money market instruments).
 
Emerging markets to face credit crisis in 2019 over currency fall: Report

Credit crisis in emerging markets like India is likely to grow both in scale and scope in 2019 due to the foreign-denominated debt and currency depreciations, a study said on Thursday. "An emerging markets credit crisis will unfold in 2019... Pressure on emerging markets will also mount as the US Federal Reserve increases interest rates and the dollar strengthens, raising the cost of repaying foreign currency-denominated loans," an A.T. Kearney report said. Read more
 

S&P BSE Oil and Gas index up over 1%


Market check
Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 36,119.59 +312.31 +0.87
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,374.78 +103.55 +0.92
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,901.47 +338.26 +1.04
 
S&P BSE 100 11,162.69 +103.50 +0.94
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,494.04 +32.80 +0.95

CENTRUM RESEARCH | An emerging investment opportunity: FSI
 
Over the past decade, things have dramatically improved for FSI segment (comprising NBFCs, Insurance Companies, Asset Management Companies, Credit Rating Companies, Depositories and Exchanges). If we exclude lending businesses such as NBFCs, the other players can be termed as “Non-Lending Financial Institutions” (NLFIs). A virtuous cycle has unfolded over the last few years amongst these players feeding into success of each other, backed by Indian demographics, increased incomes and elevated disposable surplus. NLFIs have grown in size and confidence, finally setting their entry into Indian capital markets.
Board meetings today

COMPANY DATE AGENDA
CENTRAL BANK 28-12-2018 BOARD MEETING
J K CEMENTS 28-12-2018 BOARD MEETING
MAN INFRA 28-12-2018 BOARD MEETING
NIIT TECH. 28-12-2018 BOARD MEETING
NIMBUS PROJ. 28-12-2018 BOARD MEETING
» More on Board
All 30 stocks trading in green on S&P BSE Sensex


Markets in December: 'Bizarre' stock moves leave traders scratching heads
 
As a turbulent December in equity markets draws to a close, there’s one thing traders and investors can agree on: these are not usual times, especially for this time of year. It’s “completely bizarre,” says Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. “It’s incredible just how harmful markets veer when sentiment slides.”

Innes has been taking profit on some winning investments, and snapping up blue-chip stocks whose valuations have dropped in the December sell-off, but for the most part he’s keeping his money on the sidelines. Read more
Future Retail falls 14% in three days in a firm market

Shares of Future Retail, the flagship company of Future Group, have slipped 6 per cent to Rs 484 per share, extending their decline in the past two days in an otherwise firm market. In the past three trading days, the stock slipped has 14 per cent after the government on Wednesday tightened rules for e-commerce companies. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 2 per cent during the same period. Read more
 
5paisa Capital rallies 17% in two days as promoter hikes stake

Shares of 5paisa Capital (5PCL) is locked in the upper circuit of 10% at Rs 223 on Friday, surging 17% in past two trading days, after Nirmal Jain, the promoter of the company hiked his stake through an open market purchase. On Wednesday, December 26, Nirmal Bhanwarlal Jain had purchased an additional 50,000 equity shares of 5PCL through an open market purchase. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT | 2.2 million shares of ICICI Bank change hands in a block deal at Rs 361/share; stock up nearly 1.50%
Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


Reliance Securities on Hexaware Technologies 
 
Rating: Buy 
 
Target Price: Rs 380
  
Hexaware Technologies stock price was up 2.6% in yesterday’s trade, while the BSE Sensex rose 0.4%. Hexaware’s 3QCY18 revenue grew by 1.6% QoQ (+2.1% QoQ in CC terms) to US$171.1mn owing to unseasonal furloughs with a client, delays in ramp-up in 2 deals and staffing issues in the US. From a vertical perspective, subdued revenue growth can be attributed to poor performances in Travel & Transportation (-3.9% QoQ), BFSI (+0.9%) and MFG & Consumer verticals (-5.8% QoQ, all in USD terms). The company downgraded its CY18 revenue growth guidance to 11-12% from 12-13% earlier. On the other hand, EPS growth guidance was raised to more than 20% from 13-14% earlier owing to better margins. Owing to client-specific issues, Hexaware’s growth has been slowing down over the past few quarters. However, the steep 25% correction in stock price over the past 3 months has made the valuation more reasonable at 14.3x CY19E EPS. From valuation perspective, we are positive on the stock with a target price of Rs 380.  
Top gainers on BSE500

COMPANY PRICE() CHG() CHG(%) VOLUME
LEMON TREE HOTEL 74.45 5.65 8.21 112663
NBCC 56.55 2.55 4.72 523095
PC JEWELLER 88.65 3.65 4.29 1584488
MAHINDRA HOLIDAY 202.90 8.20 4.21 4083
DEEPAK NITRITE 217.05 7.65 3.65 11388
» More on Top Gainers
ICICI Direct Research on Jyothy Labs
 
With its brand building strategies, effective distribution network and operational efficiencies, we estimate JLL’s margins for FY19E, FY20E, FY21E at 16.1%, 16.3%, 17.1%, respectively. We expect revenue CAGR of 10.5% for FY18-21E. The long-term growth story of the company on account of an increase in penetration (for dishwash, house insecticide, naturals products) and premiumisation remains intact. We are confident on the back of new launches in high growth areas along with positive volume led growth and believe dishwashing products Exo and Pril along with natural products like Margo provide a growth opportunity in the respective space. Thus, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 240 per share.
Lemon Tree gains 12% on JV with Warburg Pincus to create co-living platform

Shares of Lemon Tree Hotels rallied 12% to Rs 77.15 apiece on BSE in early morning trade after the company has formed a joint venture (JV) with an affiliate of Warburg Pincus, a leading global private equity firm, to create a co-living platform. The JV marks Lemon Tree Hotel, lndia's largest hotel chain in the mid-priced sector, entry into an adjacent but new business segment focusing on the development of institutional-grade rental housing accommodation serving both students and young working professionals across major educational clusters and key office markets in India. Read more
 
Kotak Institutional Equities on financial sector

Improving liquidity conditions and a favourable view on the interest rate cycle prompts us to reiterate our positive view on large HFCs. Improvement in funding environment, rally in bond markets and a likely rate cut will augur well for rate sensitivities in general and HFCs in particular. However, risks in the developer lending segment and impact of likely implementation of RBI norms on external benchmarking of retail loans are the two aspects to watch out for.

We reiterate ADD rating on HDFC (TP of Rs2,150, up from Rs1,980), BUY on LICHF (TP of Rs590, up from Rs550) even as we await corporate developments at PNBHF (REDUCE, TP of Rs975, up from Rs900).
Edelweiss on Hero MotoCorp

The key takeaways from our meeting with Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) are: 1) Management believes the lacuna is lack of right products in the premium motorcycle and scooters segment rather than brand recognition, and highlighted it is committed to making inroads thereof. 2) Availability of liquidity is not concerning for two wheelers (2Ws), but channel inventory is high. 3) Continued focus on features over pricing as a sustainable business strategy. All in all, while management’s focus and confidence are reassuring, we maintain the stock’s re-rating is likely to be driven by the success of recent as well as upcoming launches. Maintain ‘HOLD’.


ROLLOVER STATS

§  Tracking positive global cues overnight, Nifty opened on a strong note and consolidated in a tight range. Higher than average rollovers ensured that VWAP session remains a muted affair. For the December series, the index has closed on flat note (-0.73%).
 
§  Market-wide rollovers stands at 81% which is in line with the average rollovers (last three series). January series will start with market-wide future OI of INR 1.28tn as against INR 1.29tn seen at the start of the December expiry. Roll levels were ~48-50bps (cost to long rollers).
 
§  Nifty futures rollover stands at 74% vs. average rollovers of 68% (last three series). Nifty roll levels (cost to long) were ~37-39bps. Nifty futures will start the January series with an OI of INR 241bn (~22.33mn shares) compared to an OI of INR 213bn (~19.65mn shares) seen at the start of December series.
 
§  December was more of an attritional month with both bulls and bears trying to gain an upper hand. State election results and global cues have dominated the proceedings. Expectations around the election results kept the market participants on the edge. Nifty swiftly reversed its course in the aftermath of results. As we had mentioned in our last expiry day note, even in case of a disappointment from the state election results, damage to Nifty should be restricted. Contrary to our target of 11200 for the December series, Nifty hit the 11000 mark.  
 
§  For January, we expect the positive momentum to continue with Nifty likely to head towards the 11200 mark. On the downside, a breach of 10490 will negate our positive stance. Moreover with rollovers ending on a strong note, bullish bets have been rolled over into the new series. We strongly believe global cues along with Q3FY19 earnings season will set the key triggers for January series

(Source: Edelweiss Securities)
MARKET OUTLOOK 2019 :: ICICI Securities

Indian markets look undervalued vs. their global counterparts as currently we are in the midst of strong a corporate earnings recovery primarily led by improving asset quality in the banking & NBFC space. In other markets, earnings growth looks muted or faces uncertainties like Brexit (UK). Domestically, our two year earnings CAGR is pegged at 18.5% with consequent PEG ratio at 0.9x vs. global average of 1.8x.
 
Our long-term (14 years), across cycles, one year forward P/E multiple works out to 15.2x with corresponding standard deviation placed at 2.6x. With average + 2 standard deviation placed at 20.3x (cap) we are comfortably placed in valuing the Nifty at 19.0x, which is ~average + 1.5 standard deviation. Therefore, we, assign a P/E multiple of 19.0x on FY20E EPS of | 636, to arrive at a fair value of 12,100 for the Nifty
COMMENT CLSA's Chris Wood trims exposure in IndusInd Bank

It has seemed like fund managers want to cut every losing position before year end. At least that is what it has looked like of late to GREED & fear with the S&P500 falling 2.7% on Christmas Eve, the worst decline on Christmas Eve on record. Still the S&P500 rebounded by 5% on Boxing Day, following a 20% decline from the record high reached in September.

The Indonesian stock market continues to have the highest forecast RoE in 2019 of all Asian markets covered by CLSA at 16%. Still, as ever, the stock market will be primarily influenced by the direction in the currency. For those who believe the Fed is all but done, Indonesia is an obvious Overweight in 2019.
 
The Overweight in Indonesia in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio will be increased by 1ppt by reducing the weighting in Malaysia. An investment in Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) will be introduced in the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio with a 4% weighting. This will be paid for by shaving the investments in Woodside Petroleum (2ppt), Galaxy Entertainment (1ppt) and IndusInd Bank (1ppt).

(Source: Wood's weekly newsletter, GREED & fear)

Christopher Wood, Managing Director & Equity Strategist, CLSA

Market check

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 36,142.00 +334.72 +0.93
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,374.78 +103.55 +0.92
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,781.21 +218.00 +0.67
 
S&P BSE 100 11,156.89 +97.70 +0.88
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,484.02 +22.78 +0.66

Shares of Lemon Tree Hotels up over 8%


HDFC is up 2% in early deals



PE investors ride IPO boom, clock stellar returns by selling $2-bn shares

Private equity (PE) investors have made the most of the initial public offering (IPO) boom in the domestic market over the past two years. These early-stage investors have sold shares worth $2.1 billion by divesting their holdings through maiden offerings since 2017, data from Venture Intelligence shows.
 
Interestingly, most of the PE investors have made mouth-watering returns on their investments in companies such as AU Small Finance Bank, Varroc Engineering, Bandhan Bank and Indian Energy Exchange (IEX). READ MORE

Sectoral trend on NSE


Opening gainers in BSE Sensex


Market at open
 
At 9:15 AM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 35,974, up 166 points while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 10,827, up 48 points.
Market at pre-open

Index Current Pt. Change % Change
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 35,855.14 +47.86 +0.13
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,281.02 +9.79 +0.09
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 32,673.88 +110.67 +0.34
 
S&P BSE 100 11,072.78 +13.59 +0.12
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,453.10 -8.14 -0.24

Rupee opening

Rupee opens at 70.05/$ vs its previous close of  70.35  per dollar.
Top trading calls by Anand Rathi: Buy HDFC Life, Avanti Feeds

HDFCLIFE: BUY
TARGET: Rs 407
STOP LOSS: Rs 380
 
The stock has formed a nice right-angled triangular pattern on the daily charts and it has provided a breakout from the same. The momentum indicator is also well in buy mode on the daily charts. The wave C up seems to have started; hence one can buy it for the target of 407 with a stop loss of 380. Click here to read more
Lemon Tree, Ashoka Buildcon and Kansai Nerolac Paints top stocks to track

Hospitality firm Lemon Tree Hotels on Thursday said it has formed a joint venture with an arm of global private equity firm Warburg Pincus to develop rental housing projects envisaging investments of Rs 30 billion over a period of time. Click here to read more
 
Top trading ideas by Prabhudas Lilladher for today: BUY PIDILITE INDUSTRIES
 
CMP: Rs 1,113.70
TARGET: Rs 1,220
STOP LOSS: Rs 1,080
 
The stock has made a higher bottom formation pattern in the daily chart to take support at 1085 levels and has maintained above the 200DMA and 50DMA moving averages to signify strength and has the potential to rise further from here on. The chart looks attractive and with good volume activity witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 1220 keeping a stop loss of 1080. READ MORE
Higher competition could slow down Eicher Motors' cash cow

The Eicher Motor stock is down about 5 per cent since its monthly highs, on worries that increasing competition and muted volume growth will dent its performance over the next few quarters. While the premium motorcycle segment is growing faster than the overall segment growth, new competition is expected to chip away at the company’s cash cow segment — the 350cc segment. Click here to read more
Derivative strategy on Mahanagar Gas by HDFC Securities
 
Buy Mahanagar Gas January Future at Rs 898
Stop loss: Rs 882
Target Price: Rs 925
Rationale:
 
-- Long build up was seen in Mahanagar Gas (MGL) Futures on Wednesday where we saw a rise in the open interest (OI) with price rise of 2.3 per cent.
 
-- After taking support around 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the stock price resumed its uptrend with higher volumes.
 
-- It is making higher top higher bottom formation on the daily charts.
 
-- Momentum indicators and oscillators are also indicating strength in the stock for the short-to-medium term.
Nifty outlook by Prabhudas Lilladher

The market has managed to hold on to the support of 10530 levels to surge higher, however Nifty needs to move past 10950 for targets of 11000. The support for the day is seen at 35500/10700 while resistance is seen at 36100/10850. Bank Nifty would have a range of 26570-27170. The daily trend of Nifty and Bank Nifty has been down for the 4th day and the weekly trend of both indices is also a threat. Read more
Rupee check
 
The rupee tumbled by 29 paise to 70.35 against US dollar on Thursday amid strengthening of the greenback even as crude oil prices eased.
Oil check
 
Oil prices fell on Thursday, retreating from an 8 per cent rally in the previous session as the oil market focused on signs of faltering global economic growth and record production of crude. Brent crude futures dropped 4.24 per cent, or $2.31, to settle at $52.16 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.61 to settle at $44.61 a barrel, down 3.48 per cent. US crude had rallied 8 per cent midweek after dropping to a 1-1/2-year low of $42.36 at the week’s start.
SGX Nifty
 
The Nifty futures on Singapore Exchange (SGX) were trading 65.50 points or 0.6 per cent higher at 10,874.50 levels in early trade.
Asian stocks edge up as Wall Street extends comeback rally

Asian stocks inched higher on Friday after Wall Street ended volatile trade in the green, adding to the massive gains of the previous session although lingering investor jitters helped support safe-haven currencies such as the yen.
 
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.15 per cent. It has fallen almost 4 per cent so far in December. Australian stocks added 0.5 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 0.65 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend and slipped 0.25 per cent.
 
Wall Street roars back late to keep rally going

US stocks roared back to end in positive territory on Thursday following steep losses for much of the session, as equities rebounded for a second day.
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260.37 points, or 1.14 per cent, to 23,138.82, the S&P 500 gained 21.13 points, or 0.86 per cent, to 2,488.83 and the Nasdaq Composite added 25.14 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 6,579.49. 
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