Sensex vaults 1,422 pts, most in 10 years, after exit polls predict NDA win

Photo: Kamlesh Pednekar
Benchmark indices ended Monday's session at record closing high, surging almost 4 per cent, a day after exit polls predicted the return of the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to power. In the process, the S&P BSE Sensex reclaimed the 39,000-mark, while the Nifty Bank posted its biggest one-day gain.

The S&P BSE Sensex ended the day 3.75 per cent, or 1,422 points, higher at 39,352 levels, with State Bank of India, YES Bank, IndusInd Bank, Larsen & Toubro, and YES Bank leading the list of gainers. Infosys and Bajaj Auto, however, settled in the red. The market breadth remained in favour of buyers as 2,018 stocks advanced and 611 declined, The broader Nifty50 gained 421 points, or 3.7 per cent, to settle at 11,828.

Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO, HDFC Securities said the markets seem to have almost fully discounted the outcome of final election results.

"Indian markets expectedly cheered the outcome of the exit polls and Nifty registered its largest point gain since January 25, 2009. Markets seem to have almost fully discounted the outcome of final election results. Institutional buying was seen on Monday, which triggered some amount of short covering," Relli said.

"Over the next three days, markets could look up to corporate results and/or global developments. For a large change in inflows, key cabinet berth allocation and initial policy announcements will be keenly awaited. Meanwhile, one hopes globally risk-on trade continues," he said.

BIGGEST GAIN POST EXIT POLLS SINCE 1999

Monday's gain is also the biggest gain for the benchmark indices after exit poll results since the 1999 Lok Sabha elections. On the previous exit poll day -- May 13, 2014 -- the S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty50 were up 2.4 per cent each. On earlier exit poll dates, October 3, 1999 (down 1 per cent), May 10, 2004 (down 2 per cent) and May 13, 2009 (down 1 per cent), the benchmark indices had posted negative returns of up to 2 per cent, according to data compiled by Business Standard Research Bureau. READ MORE

Polling for the seventh and final phase of Lok Sabha (LS) elections 2019 ended on Sunday evening, with most exit polls predicting the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) phir ek baar Modi sarkar, or ‘once more Modi government’ slogan likely to get vindicated on the counting day on Thursday (May 23).  READ FULL STORY HERE

All the Nifty sectoral indices remained in the green, with the Nifty PSU Bank index gaining the highest 7.9 per cent while the rest were up 0.6 to 5.7 per cent.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE MidCap index gained 493 points, or 3.57 per cent, to end at 14,819, while the S&P BSE SmallCap index was up 3.6 per cent, or 493 points, higher at 14,381.

 
BUZZING STOCKS

Shares of Adani Group companies surged up to 17 per cent intra-day on the BSE on Monday supported by heavy buy volumes after exit polls predicted the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form government on May 23. READ MORE

Shares of public sector banks were on a roll with Nifty PSU Bank index surging 7 per cent intra-day on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) amid expectations that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may retain power at the Centre. Indian Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India (BOI), Canara Bank, Allahabad Bank and Syndicate Bank were up more than 7 per cent each on the NSE. READ MORE

4:10 PM IST

4:01 PM IST

4:00 PM IST The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 39,353, up 1,422 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,828, up 421 points.

3:20 PM IST

3:15 PM IST

3:04 PM IST Shares of Dr Reddy’s Laboratories plunged 7 per cent to Rs 2,544 in intra-day trade on the BSE in an otherwise strong market after the company reported disappointing margin in January-March quarter (Q4FY19). The company’s gross margin for the Q4 was at 52.4 per cent. On the year-on-year (YoY) basis, the gross margin declined by around 100 basis points (bps), primarily on account of price erosion, partially offset by new launches and favorable forex rates. READ MORE

2:57 PM IST Last close: Rs 609 Target price: Rs 705 Recommendation: Buy Muthoot Finance has reported 4QFY19 numbers with healthy AUM growth of 18% YoY.Net Interest Income grew by 6%/13% YoY/QoQ in 4QFY19. PAT has registered a low growth of 1%/6% YoY/QoQ.NIM increased by 113 bps to 14.64% in 4QFY19 on the account of increase in yield QoQ .The average cost of funding stood at 9.3% in 4QFY19 and incremental borrowing cost stood at 9.5%.

2:53 PM IST

2:38 PM IST

2:31 PM IST - In a BSE filing, the bank said it allocated shares with face value of rs 2 each Alert: ESOP is Employee Stock Option Plan

2:24 PM IST - The gain is highest ever in the index's history

2:21 PM IST

LIVE UPDATES

Sectoral trend on NSE


Heatmap: S&P BSE Sensex


Market at close

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 39,353, up 1,422 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,828, up 421 points.

Indiabulls Housing Finance rises almost 12%


Adani Enterprises extends gains, trades over 27% higher


Dr Reddy's Laboratories plunges 7% on disappointing Q4 margin

Shares of Dr Reddy’s Laboratories plunged 7 per cent to Rs 2,544 in intra-day trade on the BSE in an otherwise strong market after the company reported disappointing margin in January-March quarter (Q4FY19). The company’s gross margin for the Q4 was at 52.4 per cent. On the year-on-year (YoY) basis, the gross margin declined by around 100 basis points (bps), primarily on account of price erosion, partially offset by new launches and favorable forex rates. READ MORE



Narnolia Financial Advisors on Muthoot Finance

Last close: Rs 609

Target price: Rs 705

Recommendation: Buy


Muthoot Finance has reported 4QFY19 numbers with healthy AUM growth of 18% YoY.Net Interest Income grew by 6%/13% YoY/QoQ in 4QFY19. PAT has registered a low growth of 1%/6% YoY/QoQ.NIM increased by 113 bps to 14.64% in 4QFY19 on the account of increase in yield QoQ .The average cost of funding stood at 9.3% in 4QFY19 and incremental borrowing cost stood at 9.5%.

Buzzing | NCC Ltd gains 11%


Indiabulls Ventures zooms over 16% to become biggest Nifty Small-cap gainer


NEWS ALERT | ICICI Bank allotted 2,08,231 equity shares under ESOP on May 17

- In a BSE filing, the bank said it allocated shares with face value of rs 2 each

Alert: ESOP is Employee Stock Option Plan


Nifty Bank single biggest gainer in today's rally

- The gain is highest ever in the index's history

NEWS ALERT | Sensex climbs 1,400 points


YES Bank gains almost 7%


NEWS ALERT | Nifty Bank touches new record high of 30,673.65


Anand Rathi on Disham Carbogen Amcis

Rating: Buy
 
Target Price: Rs 390
 
Share Price: Rs 204
 
Driven by greater momentum in commercial orders, its strong CRAMS business and focus on its high-margin Vitamin-D business, Dishman’s financial performance would be good, we believe. It is poised to gain from the high-margin HIPO opportunity in oncology. Along with better churning of capacities, its continuous focus on operational efficiency would deliver healthy margins, leading to greater profitability. We expect a ~19% earnings CAGR over FY19-21. We retain our Buy rating, with a higher target price of Rs 390.

As the poll haze clears, check out the top sectors experts are betting on

Better-than-expected exit polls that showed clear majority for the Narendra Modi-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the Lok Sabha elections 2019 gave an over 1,000-point lift to the S&P BSE Sensex on Monday.
 
The rally was broad-based as all the sectors, barring information technology (IT), witnessed heavy buying. Heavyweights such as ICICI Bank, RIL (Reliance Industries), HDFC and Larsen & Toubro (L&T) rallied over 4 per cent each in intra-day trade. READ MORE

MARKET CHECK


Stocks that hit 52-week low on S&P BSE Sensex

COMPANY PRICE(rs) 52 WK LOW CHG(rs) CHG(%)
BIOCON 520.00 510.00 -0.80 -0.15
JUBILANT LIFE 569.35 553.45 -26.70 -4.48
MONSANTO INDIA 2385.00 2336.10 -16.65 -0.69
THYROCARE TECH. 439.00 425.25 -4.25 -0.96
» More on 52 Week Low

Stocks that hit 52-week high on S&P BSE Sensex

COMPANY PRICE(rs) 52 WK HIGH CHG(rs) CHG(%)
ATUL 3811.25 3863.00 24.70 0.65
BAJAJ FIN. 3406.10 3442.85 104.90 3.18
BAJAJ FINSERV 8223.00 8299.00 230.00 2.88
DCB BANK 230.15 230.50 9.05 4.09
DCM SHRIRAM 590.00 596.00 20.50 3.60
» More on 52 Week High

Index contributors at this hour

ICICIBANK 12,26,449 50.24
LT 3,92,556 56.05
 
YESBANK 45,38,886 64.04
 
SBIN 25,10,377 84.97
 
AXISBANK 15,88,166 122.73
 
RELIANCE 17,60,962 231.78
 
Security TTQ T/O Cr
 

NEWS ALERT | Flash Electronics says will file lawsuits against Eicher in other geographies by next month: CNBC TV18

- Penalty will run into millions of dollars

- Flash Elec says Eicher Motors will be impacted on the export front as suit filed is against products like the Continental GT & Interceptor.

Alert: Flash Electonics had filed law suit against Eicher Motors against patent infringement. 

All the Nifty sectoral indices are trading in the green


Can Fin Homes surges almost 10%


IndiGo is trading over 2% lower


Another election strategy

The General Election results will be declared this week. Last week, we considered some short-term trading ideas that could gain during the churn as a new government takes over. What little we have in the way of data and anecdotes suggests that there could be considerable uncertainty for a while with a fractured mandate. READ MORE

DHFL trading near day's high


NEWS ALERT | Bharat Forge Q4 result

- Net profit up 199% vs Rs 100.3 crore in Q4FY18.

- Revenue up 13.8% vs Rs 1,466 crore y-o-y

- Ebitda up 23.8% vs Rs 417.7 crore y-o-y

- Ebitda margin up 250 bps y-o-y

Result impact | Bharat Forge gains after Q4 results beat estimates


Nifty PSU Bank index surges 7%; SBI nears record high

Shares of public sector banks were on a roll with Nifty PSU Bank index surging 7 per cent intra-day on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) amid expectations that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may retain power at the Centre. Indian Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India (BOI), Canara Bank, Allahabad Bank and Syndicate Bank were up more than 7 per cent each on the NSE. READ MORE



Nifty PSU Bank index surges 7%; SBI nears record high

Shares of public sector banks were on a roll with Nifty PSU Bank index surging 7 per cent intra-day on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) amid expectations that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may retain power at the Centre.
 
Indian Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India (BOI), Canara Bank, Allahabad Bank and Syndicate Bank were up more than 7 per cent each on the NSE. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT | Bharat Forge Q4 result

- Net profit at Rs 299.5 crore

- Revenue at Rs 1,668.6 crore

- Ebitda at Rs 517.3 crore

Vodafone Idea up over 6%


Dr Reddy: Biggest loser among the five stocks trading in red today

- Ony 5 out of 50 stocks on Nifty50 are trading in red, including Infosys, Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra and ZEEL


India VIX breaches 50-Day intra day Moving Average


Avoid over-leveraged stocks in a market spooked by chances of slower growth

The Sensex is down 3.4 per cent over the past month. Besides election-related uncertainty, the perceptible slowdown in several key segments of the economy is weighing on market sentiment. While private investment has been in the slow lane for some time, the recent slowdown in consumption has further compounded the economy’s woes. READ MORE

Nifty Bank surges over 1,000 points intra-day


Nifty IT turns green


US-Iran tensions, Opec's indication of continuing cuts lead to oil surge

Oil rose to multi-week highs on Monday after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) indicated it will likely maintain production cuts that have helped support prices this year, while tensions continued to escalate in the Middle East. Brent crude was up by 96 cents, or 1.3%, at $73.17 a barrel by 0227 GMT, having earlier touched $73.40, the highest since April 26. READ MORE



No stopping for Sensex rally, Index up 1,100 points

- The index has reclaimed 39,000 mark

Phillip Capital on Engineers India

Recommendation: Neutral (Maintain)
 
Last close:  Rs 108
 
Target: Rs 124 (+15%)

Revenues were driven by Turnkey segment (43% of sales, +51% yoy) while Consultancy revenues (57% of sales) grew 4% yoy. Segmentally, operating profitability was driven by (1) Consultancy EBIT (Rs 1bn, +13% yoy) led by improved margins (28.7% vs. 26.6%), and (2) Turnkey EBIT (Rs 163mn, +35% yoy) on strong execution despite lower margins (6.3% vs. 7%). Other income at Rs 596mn (40% of PBT) grew 24% yoy (15% qoq) on higher cash balances of Rs 26.6bn (16% growth over September 2018 balance). For FY19, EIL accounted for Rs 180mn (Rs 267mn in FY18) write off on its investment in an Oil & Gas exploration
block and expects the write off to recur in FY20 though lower in quantum.

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services climbs almost 8%


Nifty Realty extending gains

- Indiabulls Real Estate leads the rally with 11% gain, Oberoi Realty up nearly 2%

Adani Enterprises extends gains, up over 20%


Stock market sees best post-exit poll intra day rally since 1999 elections

The benchmark indices on Monday posted their biggest post exit poll intra-day gain since the 1999 Lok Sabha elections with the S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty50 rallying nearly 2.5 per cent each, expecting ruling the Narendra Modi – led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to return to power at the Centre. Exit polls showed the incumbent government bagging close to 300 seats in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. READ MORE

Market check | Nifty pips 11,700


Market check | Sensex mounts 1,000 pts


Zee Entertainment slips over 3%


There's an opportunity to buy good stocks now: Sudip Bandyopadhyay

Stock market got off to a strong start on Monday with both the benchmark indices, S&P BSE Sensex and NSE's Nifty50 rallying over 2 per cent each. Investor sentiment got a major boost after most exit polls predicted thumping majority for NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the Lok Sabha Elections 2019. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT | Sensex's biggest intra-day gaining streak in 10 yr; up over 950 pts


Buzzing | ITI Ltd is up over 13%


Elara Capital on Bajaj Auto

Rating: SELL
 
Target Price : INR 2386
 
Downside : 22%
 
CMP : INR 3040 (as on 17 May 2019)

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT IN) EBITDA declined 13% YoY to INR 11.6bn (2% below our est); while EBITDA margin dipped 390bp YoY at 15.7% (90bp below our est) owing to higher than expected RMC/Sales (up 310bp YoY and down 50bp QoQ to 72.3% vs our est of 71%). Revenues grew 9% YoY at INR 74bn (3% above our est) led by 14% YoY volume growth; though net realization declined 5% YoY while grew 5% QoQ. Realization grew QoQ due to higher Pulsars in overall mix. Debtor days increased substantially to 31 days from 22 days YoY due to credit given to dealers.

Exit polls and markets: Beware! Play the expected euphoria with caution

Markets remained highly volatile during last week with the Nifty conquering the 11,400 mark after threatening to go below 11,100 early in the week. It started the week on a pessimistic note, after IIP contracted to 0.1 per cent in March 2019, the lowest in 21 months. Continued selling by the FIIs ahead of the General Election outcome and the prevailing trade war tensions between US and China kept the market nervous. Sentiments got further hit after Indian Met department’s announcement of a late arrival of monsoon, dampened the early revival prospects of consumption focused sectors. READ MORE

IndusInd Bank gains over 5%


NDTV is trading over 5% lower ahead of results


Polyspin Exports slips over 16% in trade


Tech Mahindra is trading over 2% lower


Adani Group shares rally up to 17% as exit polls predict NDA's return

Shares of Adani Group companies surged up to 17 per cent intra-day on the BSE on Monday supported by heavy buy volumes after exit polls predicted the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form government on May 23.
 
Opinion polls on Sunday gave clear victory to the incumbent government with Prime Minister Narendra Modi set for another term. READ MORE

Lok Sabha polls 2019: Why do elections tend to influence the stock markets?

Prior to any major election there is a lot of noise regarding the impact of the election outcome on stock markets. While it is generally perceived that elections do not matter in the long run, the truth is a bit more complicated than that. Interestingly, as the graphic below illustrates, the general elections on the last three occasions have been extremely positive for the markets. READ MORE

Buzzing | Adani Enterprises gains nearly 14%


Market comment: Rusmik Oza, Head of Fundamental Research, Kotak Securities

Post the Exit Polls we can expect Nifty to again test its recent high before 23rd May.  Fresh breakout into the 12,000 to 12,500 zone would depend on whether BJP gets majority on its own.l on 23rd May. Lot of local money has remained on the sidelines, which can come into the markets post today's Exit Poll. We see more value in Mid and Small caps rather than Nifty 50. If Exit Polls come true on 23rd then we can expect a structural upmove in the mid & small cap space

Broader indices outperforming benchmark Nifty50

- Nifty Mid-cap up over 4%, while Small-cap up 3.7%


Buzzing | Dredging Corp up over 13%


Indian Bank is trading over 7% higher


Nifty PSU Bnk index is trading over 6% higher


Jefferies on Sun Pharma

Recommendation: BUY
 
Price target; Rs 540
 
Last close: Price Rs 420.15

As we expect a recovery in business, better specialty traction and supportive valuations. The survey provides us confidence in our Ilumya revenue estimates. SUNP has been under pressure on corporate governance concerns. While mgmt. has taken steps to address investor concerns, the overhang could continue in near term. With the stock trading at 16x adj FY21 PE, a 15%+ discount to peers, risk/reward looks favorable. It remains our preferred large cap pick; revise PT to Rs540 (from Rs535).

Welspun Corp up nearly 4%

The company has received provisional completion certificate for commencing commercial operation of the Dewas Industrial Water Supply Project.


NEWS ALERT | Sensex zooms past 900 points


HDFC Securities on Neuland Labs

Last close: Rs 669

Target price: Rs 920

Recommendation: Buy


We maintain BUY on NLL following a beat on our estimates. Our TP is revised to Rs 920/sh (14x FY21E EPS). Hopes are hinged on ramp up in critical products like Austedo and Salmeterol.

HDFC Securities on Bajaj Auto

Last close: Rs 3,040

Target price: Rs 3,330

Recommendation: Buy 


Bajaj’s adj. 4QFY19 PAT at Rs 10.7bn (-1% YoY) was inline with our estimates. We expect Bajaj to grow ahead of the market in FY20 as well driven by new launches across its product range. Our revised TP is Rs 3,330 (based on its long term ten year average PE multiple of 17.5x on FY21E earnings). While the two wheeler industry growth has been benign, Bajaj has expanded market share by recalibrating its strategy. Further, the company has a diversified product portfolio with three wheelers and exports accounting for ~50% of volumes. Re-iterate BUY.

State Bank of India climbs over 6%, leads the list of gainers on BSE


Canara Bank is trading over 5% higher


Most active stocks by volume

COMPANY PRICE(rs) CHG(rs) CHG(%) VOLUME
REL. COMM. 2.08 0.05 2.46 6835638
RELIANCE POWER 6.51 0.54 9.05 3066546
VODAFONE IDEA 12.35 0.50 4.22 2155404
YES BANK 140.00 5.45 4.05 1361299
ADANI POWER 43.75 3.15 7.76 1319177
» More on Most Active Volume

Market check


Market check


Exit Poll outcome: Brokerages see market rally in the making

Markets witnessed a gap-up opening on Monday, a day after most exit polls showed Narendra Modi – led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) return to power for the second time. The S&P BSE Sensex zoomed over 900 points at open to cross the 38,700 levels. The broader Nifty50 index, on the other hand, saw its best opening gain after the 2014 Lok Sabha result and hit 11,694 levels – up nearly 2.5 per cent, or 284 points. READ MORE

Future retail is trading over 2% higher

 CARE reaffirms A1+ rating to company's commercial papers and AA- to the NCDs.


Shankar Sharma of First Global on exit polls & markets

Broader indices under Nifty


Edelweiss recommends Uflex Limited

While we acknowledge the cyclical nature of the BOPET films business, we do believe the Indian players would deliver an earnings CAGR of about 15% with a 185bp jump in RoCE to 13–14% over FY19–21E. Our top ‘BUYs’ are Polyplex, a strong play on the films upcycle, Uflex, which is a beneficiary of enhanced value chain integration into packaging. In light of capping of valuations due to open offer from Blackstone at the current price, triggered following its acquisition of majority stake in EPL, we maintain ‘HOLD’

Adani Enterprises zooms almost 11%


Infra stocks gain after Exit polls suggest return of BJP-led NDA

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
(rs)
CHG(%) VALUE
(rs CR)
VOLUME
GMR INFRA. 15.80 15.95 15.65 0.60 3.95 0.26 161740
LARSEN & TOUBRO 1421.00 1430.20 1396.60 59.10 4.34 17.89 125880
ENGINEERS INDIA 112.20 117.90 111.75 4.00 3.70 1.02 91156
GAMMON INFRA. 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.02 4.55 0.00 83000
IVRCL 0.45 0.45 0.43 0.02 4.65 0.00 73562
ASHOKA BUILDCON 122.85 126.30 116.50 8.60 7.53 0.76 61659
ADANI PORTS 379.00 395.00 376.15 12.10 3.30 2.19 57804

Bank stocks trade higher

COMPANY LATEST(rs) CHG(rs) CHG(%) VOLUME
ST BK OF INDIA 332.55 13.60 4.26 436568
PUNJAB NATL.BANK 86.35 3.70 4.48 377120
SOUTH IND.BANK 13.75 0.40 3.00 244632
BANK OF INDIA 85.70 4.05 4.96 236517
FEDERAL BANK 102.15 3.70 3.76 221233
» More

Stocks to buy this Lok Sabha 2019 elections

Recommendation by ICICI Direct research 


Reliance Industries gains over 3%


Rupee opens 73 paise higher as exit polls show clear majority for NDA

The rupee on Monday opened sharply higher against the US dollar after the exit polls showed clear majority for the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. The results of the election will come out on Thursday, May 23.
 
The currency jumped as much as 87 paise to 69.36 level in the early trade. READ MORE

Zee Entertainment slips over 3%


Result impact | Jubilant Life Sciences down nearly 6%

Loss at Rs 99.3 crore versus profit of Rs 154.9 crore. Revenue up 5.9% at Rs 2,385.6 core versus Rs 2,252 crore, YoY.


Tata Power up nearly 7%


Adani Power trading over 7% higher


ICICI Bank is trading over 4% higher


Nifty PSU Bank index is trading over 3% higher


MARKET COMMENT :: Naveen Kulkarni, head of research, Reliance Securities

The exit polls have been better than market expectations with the ruling party getting a comfortable majority. However, the market has been rallying for the last two days and it has factored the information to some extent. The market is likely to rally further but the rally may not be significant as there are challenges of not so encouraging earnings growth, lower liquidity, slowing economy and global challenges. There could be sector specific rally like infrastructure and banking that could do well

Maruti opens over 5% higher


Nifty IT- the only index trading in red today- down 0.6%


Sectoral trends on NSE


Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


Market at open


FIRST TRADE

At 09:16 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading 770 points or 2.03 per cent higher at 38,701 while the NSE's Nifty50 index was trading at 11,651.90, up 245 points or 2.15 per cent. 

Market at open


MARKET COMMENT :: Ajay Bodke, CEO (PMS) Prabhudas Lilladher

As per the poll of polls, NDA, led by BJP, is likely to easily cross the half-way mark. Markets will heave a big sigh of relief as it favours continuity & familiarity in terms of roll-out of policies. If NDA were to fall short of the half-way mark it would have led to scramble for allies like TRS, Jagan Congress & BJD
 
Institutional investors will look forward to the fillip to economic growth provided by structural reforms strongly pushed by Modi like GST, IBC, RERA, DBT etc
 
With benign inflation, well-anchored inflationary expectations & a relatively stable exchange rate; focus will be on how Modi is able to kick-start slowing engine of consumption, revive private investments, provide fillip to anemic exports, alleviate farm distress, create adequate employment opportunities, rescue the precariously perched NBFC & real-estate sectors, generate adequate resources through better administration of taxes & divestment to fund the increasingly populist impulses.
 
Any indication of BJP alone getting a majority can lead to a sharp upsurge in equity markets and strengthening of Rupee. As markets have already discounted an NDA victory such an outcome will lead to markets trading sideways with focus on the onerous quid-pro-quo in terms of plum ministries (especially economic & resources) that could be demanded by BJP's allies

Top gainers during pre-open

Security Code Security Name Group LTP Chg % Chg
500317 OSWALAGRO B 8.48 1.37 19.27
522152 SOLIMAC X 35.00 5.30 17.85
505854 TRF B 133.50 19.90 17.52
540616 ARTEMIS B 64.00 9.00 16.36
507759 LIMECHM X 34.95 4.85 16.11
532407 MOSCHIP X 22.00 3.00 15.79
513729 AROGRANITE B 57.40 6.55 12.88
522113 TIMKEN B 615.00 68.90 12.62

Sectoral trends on NSE during Pre-open


Nifty Bank index during pre-open


NEWS ALERT | Sensex zooms 700 points up on Exit poll verdict


Market at pre-open


Sandip Sabharwal on exit polls

Rupee opening

Rupee opens higher at 69.49/$ vs Friday's close of 70.22 against the US dollar. Rupee's 80 pts higher opening is the biggest opening gain since December 2018

Market at pre-open


Anupam Gupta on LS election results

ICICI-Videocon loan case: Kochhar contests bonus clawback, ESOP termination

ICICI Bank former managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) Chanda Kochhar has sent a legal letter to the private lender, objecting to the way her resignation was treated as termination, refusing to give back the money she got as bonuses and stock options between April 2009 and March 2018, as directed by the bank, said two people privy to the development. READ MORE 

Expect a gap-up opening today: MOFSL

New govt should focus on land, labour reforms to boost growth: Experts

Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian recently highlighted the need for land and labour reforms for the Indian economy to improve its long-term competitiveness. Given the patchy track record of successive governments at the Centre — and in the States — on this front, experts feel the new government should focus on measures that have more impact on the ground. READ MORE

Intra-day stock picks by Reliance Securities


EXPERT VIEW | Motilal Oswal on Exit polls

"The exit results are better than the expectations. Markets will move up by 2-3 % in next few days. I am quite optimistic at these levels. Investors should increase equity allocations."

Most PSU stocks lost ground under the UPA II and NDA governments

Public sector enterprises are back on the government’s radar after it was learnt that the Ministry of Finance’s Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) has been examining plans to launch three equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the current fiscal year after the formation of the new government.
 
The DIPAM expects that the three ETFs will be attractive to investors who want to put in money in specific sectors, and will help the Centre meet an ambitious Rs 90,000-crore disinvestment target for FY20. READ MORE



Top five economic challenges the next government must tackle after May 23

A set of deep-rooted economic challenges awaits India's new government after election results are announced May 23.
 
Arresting an economic slowdown and nursing the nation’s financial sector back to health will be the immediate priorities for the next administration if Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition wins a second term -- as exit polls suggest -- or his political opponents wrest power from him. READ MORE

Essar Steel's Ebitda during insolvency process at Rs 4,000 crore

The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) for Essar Steel India during its corporate insolvency resolution process that started from August 2017 is Rs 4,000 crore, the resolution professional of the company informed the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT). READ MORE

Political stability is a key factor for FII inflows: Nischal Maheshwari

Investors are keenly watching political developments with the general election reaching the halfway mark. Nischal Maheshwari, chief executive officer for institutional equities & advisory at Centrum Broking, tells Puneet Wadhwa that the larger issue at hand is earnings growth and not the election outcome. READ MORE 

Ircon to raise funds by issuing fresh equity, diluting govt's stake to 75%

Railway CPSE Ircon International plans to raise funds by issuing fresh equity shares, piggybacking on the government's proposal to dilute its stake to 75 per cent through follow-on public offer route, an official said.
 
The government, which holds 89.18 per cent stake in Ircon International, is required to bring it down to 75 per cent under the Sebi's minimum public shareholding norms. READ MORE

Will a high voter turnout benefit BJP?

Both theoretical and empirical studies, according to Nomura, have struggled to find causality between voter turnout and election outcomes. In past Lok Sabha elections, there have been anti-incumbency outcomes during both high and low turnout elections.
 
“On the one hand, increased voter turnout may indicate a strong sense of dissatisfaction that has led to voters coalescing to boot out the incumbent, although studies have disputed this causality in previous elections,” wrote Sonal Varma, managing director and chief India economist at Nomura in a recent co-authored report with Aurodeep Nandi. READ MORE



What the next government must do

By the end of this month a new government will have been formed. Regardless of which political combination forms it, it will have to deal with three very basic questions because by the time its term ends, a quarter of the 21st century will already have gone by. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT | Japan’s GDP grows at 2.1% in C1FY19: Reuters

Japan’s economic growth unexpectedly accelerated in January- March, driven by net contributions from exports and defying forecasts for a contraction in the world’s third-largest economy. 

Nifty can slip up to 15% if Narendra Modi-led NDA fails to form govt: UBS

As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections enter their final lap, with polling for only one of the seven seven phases left, all eyes are now on the outcome, which will be known on May 23. This uncertainty, coupled with other global developments, has kept the markets volatile in the past few sessions.
 
A recent report co-authored by Gautam Chhaochharia, the UBS head of India research, along with Dipojjal Saha and Rohit Arora, expects the Nifty to slip 10-15 per cent if the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fails to form the government at the Centre. The projection is based on sharp reactions witnessed in 2004 and 2009 after general election outcomes. READ MORE



HDFC Securities on Exit Polls

Most exit polls have predicted NDA to win the Loksabha elections with a good margin. This was partly discounted in the markets over the last few days. The street would like it even more if the BJP on its own gets a majority in the Loksabha. However going by the way the exit polls in the last two elections were off the mark from the actual numbers, the markets would get excited but not super excited. The Nifty could open on Monday with an upgap of 90-150 points and later consolidate. Over the next three days it could then look up to corporate results and / or global developments. The fact that NDA may be able to attain majority in Rajya sabha only in 2020 or 2021 is a minor dampener as major reforms would need passage in both houses.

Election outcome uncertainty, earnings: Should you sell in May and go away?

The month of May is traditionally considered bad for equity markets in Europe and the US, as fund managers typically go on a long summer vacation. Back home, the outcome of the ongoing general elections, corporate results, oil prices and rupee level are some of the key factors investors will monitor closely at a time when the indices are trading close to all-time highs. READ MORE

India's consumption story is not nearing an end, says Vikas Khemani

US-China trade war fears and election-related uncertainty have made the markets nervous over the past few sessions. VIKAS KHEMANI, founder, Carnelian Capital Advisors, tells Puneet Wadhwa that when these issues start to settle, the markets, which are currently in a risk-averse phase, too, will stabilise. READ MORE

Most PSU stocks lost ground under the UPA II and NDA governments

Public sector enterprises are back on the government’s radar after it was learnt that the Ministry of Finance’s Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) has been examining plans to launch three equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the current fiscal year after the formation of the new government. READ MORE

Oil India likely to exit US, Russia blocks; to stay in Venezuela

In a major shift in its overseas strategy, state-run Oil India (OIL) is planning to exit from two major blocks in the US and Russia. This, despite India’s second-largest exploration major reaffirming its commitments to the crisis-hit Venezuela. READ MORE

GST, demonetisation, joblessness: No one has any answer for voters

At the labour chowk in Adarsh Nagar, jobless men gather to watch. Unfolding in front of them is a road show by BJP candidate and cabinet minister Dr Harsh Vardhan in the Chandni Chowk constituency. Some 250 people stand amid the sea of saffron flags. Handed a cap by BJP supporters, migrant labourer Yogendra Paswan jokes: “I’ve already got one on but I suppose I can wear this one too for a while.” Turning serious, he adds: “And I wish the labour chowk had some jobs too.” READ MORE

CARE downgrades Reliance Capital bonds' rating from 'A' to 'BBB'

CARE Ratings has downgraded Reliance Capital’s (RCap’s) long-term debt and subordinated debt rating by three notches from “A” to “BBB” due to reasons including defaults by two of its subsidiaries — Reliance Home Finance (RHFL) and Reliance Commercial Finance (RCFL). The agency also said it would keep the firm on credit watch with developing implications. READ MORE

UP to dent BJP tally, BSP-NDA post-poll alliance possible: Ambit Capital

With only the last phase of polling of the seven scheduled left, a recent report by Ambit Capital suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win 190-210 seats on a pan-India basis.
 
The report, co-authored by Ritika Mankar Mukherjee and Sumit Shekhar of Ambit Capital, pegs the total seats for Narendra Modi – led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the current form between 220 - 240, with the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) causing a big dent in the total tally. READ MORE
 

Mindtree acquisition on top of agenda; will make it a big firm: A M Naik

Acquisition of Mindtree is the topmost agenda for infrastructure giant Larsen & Toubro at the moment and eventually the mid-sized IT firm is going to be transformed into a big company, L&T Group Chairman A M Naik said.
 
The $20 billion conglomerate, which has taken its overall holding in Mindtree to about 26 per cent, will launch the open offer to buy additional stake in around 10 days, he added. READ MORE

Election 2019 may see the highest voter turnout, but will it benefit BJP?

As the election 2019 season enters the final lap with polling left only for one phase of the seven scheduled, voter turnout this time around is likely to create a record. According to reports, the 2019 election is on track to achieve record voter turnout of around 67 per cent (55 – 56 million new voters relative to 2014 general elections), which would surpass the previous record of 66.4 per cent during the 2014 polls. READ MORE

RBI readies credit line rules for NBFCs, may seek views after poll results

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is working on a liquidity line for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and may ask for suggestions from participants on draft guidelines after election results are declared. One of the likely measures is the central bank opening a special borrowing window for NBFCs, similar to what banks have, according to sources. READ MORE

Exit Polls 2019: Be careful; take their forecasts with a bucketful of salt

We are at that stage in this election season when the term ‘exit poll’ starts getting popular. This long, bitter and hard fought election is about to come to a close with only one phase of voting left. Fifty-nine seats will vote on Sunday, May 19, to elect their representatives and with it 543 seats would have completed this exercise. READ MORE

Explained: Why Nifty, Sensex rose after every Lok Sabha Election since 1999

India’s key stock market indices, the Nifty and Sensex, showed a rise six months after all the four Lok Sabha elections between 1999 and 2014, compared to the previous six months, according to an IndiaSpend analysis.
 
We analysed Nifty and Sensex levels on three key dates--six months before the first day of polling (pre-election), the first day of polling (during the election) and six months after the first day of polling (post-election), over the last four Lok Sabha elections. READ MORE

Nifty can slip up to 15% if Narendra Modi-led NDA fails to form govt: UBS

As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections enter their final lap, with polling for only one of the seven seven phases left, all eyes are now on the outcome, which will be known on May 23. This uncertainty, coupled with other global developments, has kept the markets volatile in the past few sessions. READ MORE

Slowing economic growth, lack of fiscal space will challenge next govt

Slowing economic growth and lack of fiscal space to boost it would be the main concerns of the next government. Economic growth is officially projected to come down to 7 per cent in 2018-19. Boosting private investments would be the key to spur growth, for which also the government has to rein in its fiscal deficit so that resources are not crowded out. READ MORE

Narendra Modi's to do list for investors if he gets a second term

What Donald Trump would give to have rallies like Narendra Modi’s: the adulation, the machismo, the beautiful bigness of it all. Indian democracy makes American democracy seem quaint, puny and rather un-great. READ MORE

Exit polls predict Modi 2.0, say BJP will repeat 2014 performance

Polling for the seventh and final phase of Lok Sabha (LS) elections 2019 ended on Sunday evening, with most exit polls predicting the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) phir ek baar Modi sarkar, or ‘once more Modi government’ slogan likely to get vindicated on the counting day on Thursday (May 23). READ MORE

LS elections: Markets may rise 1-2% after exit polls show Modi's return

Equity markets are likely to extend gains after most exit polls showed Narendra Modi retaining power with a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha elections 2019. The benchmark Sensex and Nifty could gain between 1 per cent and 2 per cent on Monday, said market players, adding that the gains will be capped as investors will wait for the actual outcome due later during the week (May 23). READ MORE

Tata Motors Q4 preview: Weak volume to drag down revenue, margins

Tata Motors Ltd, India’s largest automaker by sales revenue, will report its March quarter (Q4 FY19) results on Monday amid expectations that dip in volumes may drag the company's consolidated revenues and earnings.
 
"Update on China business will be key," analysts said. READ MORE

Top trading ideas by Prabhudas Lilladher: Buy Nestle, Berger Paints

NIFTY VIEW
 
The much-awaited event arrives with anxiety building up among the market players. Technically, the index has taken support at 11,100 levels and bounced from there on gaining almost 300 points in the past two days. The support for the week is seen at 36,850/11,050 for the Sensex and Nifty, respectively, while resistance is seen at 38,880/11,720. Bank Nifty would have a range of 28,350-30,430. The exit poll and election result will decide the next move and clear direction of the market. READ MORE

Top trading ideas by Angel Broking: Buy HDFC, ICICI Lombard

Be prepared for wild swings, hopeful of a favourable outcome
 
Last week’s price action was clearly divided into two parts, first half was the rub off effect of previous week’s turmoil due to US – China trade war and the second half was the hope rally ahead of the exit polls result. On Friday, we witnessed a complete gush towards the fag end, which pushed index significantly higher to reclaim the 11,400-mark on a closing basis by recouping over a per cent from the previous week’s damage. READ MORE

From FDI to e-commerce policy: The agenda for the next government

The Narendra Modi government took many initiatives such as Startup India and improved India’s rank in Ease of Doing Business. But this has not quite translated into higher foreign direct investments despite the government changing the norms for FDI thrice. The new government’s challenge would be to reverse the tide in FDI, boost manufacturing and come up with an e-commerce policy that is fair to all investors. READ MORE

Satta market Lok Sabha poll verdict: BJP to get 244-247; 80 for Congress

The satta market is betting on the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form the government for the second time in a row, with Narendra Modi continuing as the prime minister. After the poll dates were announced, the illegal betting market came out with the number of seats that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win on May 23. The market is sticking to those numbers, with some minor changes. READ MORE

Elections and stock prices

We have seen big election-related moves of the stock market in the past. But with the benefit of hindsight, the market’s forecast of future profit growth has been poor. This is part of a larger pattern, where the Indian stock market is often good at sizing up one company at a time, but fails to understand the macro forces that are shaping the entire country and influence all firms. READ MORE

Election strategy: How to play markets ahead of Lok Sabha poll results

After the recent volatile swing, Indian indices are likely to see next leg of movement as per the outcome of Election Result 2019 which is scheduled on May 23, 2019. India VIX-metric to indicate volatiltiy in the market-is near to 28 zones which is the highest levels in last 44 months since September 2015.

If BJP gets a clear Majority: Expected upside towards 12500 zones
Buy Call (11600 CE)
Buy 1 lot of 11600 Call @ 201
BEP : 11801
Max Risk : 201 Points (Rs. 15075/-)
Max Reward : Expected 700 Points (Rs. 52500/-) READ MORE

Bulk deal on NSE as on Friday

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI


Rupee check

Source: Bloomberg


Oil check

At 7:40 am, Brent crude futures were trading at $73.22 per barrel.
.

SGX Nifty

At 7:40 am, SGX Nifty was trading 261 points, or 2.28 per cent, up at 11,695.5 levels.

Asian Markets check

Source: Reuters


Wall Street check

Source: Reuters


Follow all the latest-markets related updates here
Good Morning,

Welcome to Business Standard's live blog