Bulls take charge ahead of exit polls: Sensex up 537 pts; Nifty over 11,400

Sensex and Nifty surged on the final day of a volatile week on Friday with both the benchmark indices gaining over a per cent each ahead of exit polls outcome on Sunday.

The benchmark Sensex zoomed almost 1.5 per cent, up 537 points, to close at 37,931, with Bajaj Finance, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki India, Kotak Bank, and Bajaj Auto registering the biggest gains. Market breadth remained in favour of buyers with the advance-decline ratio at 3:2.

Kotak Mahindra, ICICI Bank, HDFC twins, and ITC were the biggest contributors in Sensex's march to the north.

The broader Nifty50 also surged 1.33 per cent, or 150 points, to end the day at 11,407. About 1,029 stocks advanced and 723 shares declined on National Stock Exchange.

Among sectoral indices, only three indices remained in the red, with Nifty Media gaining the highest 3.53 per cent. Nifty Bank, Nifty Auto, Nifty Finance Service, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private Bank all rose more than 2 per cent.

In the broader market, the S&P BSE MidCap gained 153 points, or 1.08 per cent, at 14,308.36, while the S&P BSE SmallCap also rose 70 points, or 0.51 per cent, at 13,887.

GLOBAL MARKETS

 
Asian shares were trying to hold steady on Friday. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.1 per cent and were off a 15-week trough.

 
Japan’s Nikkei bounced 0.7 per cent in early trade, while the main Australian index added 0.5 per cent.

In commodities, oil prices rose again on Friday and were on track for the first weekly gains this month, as rising tensions in the Middle East stoked fears of supply disruptions.

3:43 PM IST

3:42 PM IST

3:41 PM IST

3:38 PM IST The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 37,931, up 537 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,407, up 150 points.

3:16 PM IST

3:03 PM IST Delta Corp shares hit 22-month low of Rs 156, plunging 17 per cent, in intra-day trade on the BSE on Friday on the back of heavy volumes in an otherwise strong market. The stock was trading at its lowest level since July 7, 2017. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was up 389 points or 1 per cent at 37,783. The trading volumes on the counter more than doubled with a combined 5.85 million shares, representing 2.2 per cent of total equity of Delta Corp, changing hands on the NSE and BSE. READ MORE

2:56 PM IST - EBITDA at Rs 1,162 crore - EBITDA margin at 15.7%

2:55 PM IST

2:51 PM IST - Net profit at Rs 1,305.6 crore - One time gain at Rs 342 crore - Revenue at Rs 7,395 crore

2:30 PM IST

LIVE UPDATES

Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex at close


Sectoral trend on NSE


Market at close


Market at close

The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 37,931, up 537 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,407, up 150 points.

Bajaj Auto gains after Q4 results


Delta Corp hits 22-month low; stock plunges 17% on heavy volume

Delta Corp shares hit 22-month low of Rs 156, plunging 17 per cent, in intra-day trade on the BSE on Friday on the back of heavy volumes in an otherwise strong market. The stock was trading at its lowest level since July 7, 2017. In comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex was up 389 points or 1 per cent at 37,783. The trading volumes on the counter more than doubled with a combined 5.85 million shares, representing 2.2 per cent of total equity of Delta Corp, changing hands on the NSE and BSE. READ MORE



NEWS ALERT | Bajaj Auto Q4 result

- EBITDA at Rs 1,162 crore

- EBITDA margin at 15.7%

Result impact | Bajaj Auto climbs over 5%


NEWS ALERT | Bajaj Auto Q4 result

- Net profit at Rs 1,305.6 crore

- One time gain at Rs 342 crore

- Revenue at Rs 7,395 crore

Tata Global Beverages climbs almost 7%


Delta Corp slides 10%


Edelweiss on Petronet LNG

We are revising down our target price 4% to Rs 219 (Rs 228 earlier) as we revise up our opex assumptions based on current run rate, leading to 4.5% cut in FY20/FY21E EPS. Maintain ‘HOLD’.
 

Investec Securities on UltraTech Cement

UltraTech Cement (UTCEM) is our preferred play in the large cap cement space, though we note expensive FY20E valuations. Management’s bid to play pricing (securing market share), focus on cost initiatives with limited capex (200MW solar power), steady build-up of growth optionalities (strong capacity pipeline, NCLT assets) and sticky distribution are positives.

Extracting operational synergies and incentives are also part of the plan. We are positive on UTCEM’s strategy but retain HOLD on the back of expensive valuations. Our target price remains unchanged at Rs 4,712/share

Bajaj Finance's mastery of volume game visible in Q4 performance

In an industry where volumes matter the most, Bajaj Finance seems to have perfected the art. Its March quarter (Q4) performance, which exceeded expectations, is testimony to the same. The results also defied talks of slowdown in consumer sentiment, with its consolidated assets under management (AUM) growing 40 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4. READ MORE

Prabhudas Lilladher on Siemens

We expect Siemens to benefit from its strong focus on Digitalization/Automation opportunity due to very low penetration and industry's drive to improve efficiency. We have raised FY19/FY20E EPS estimate by 2/3% mainly on account of strong 1HFY19 performance by Mobility and Power & Gas. We expect SIEM to deliver earnings CAGR of 15% over the next two years (FY18-20E) and maintain Accumulate with revised target price of Rs1263

Prabhudas Lilladher on Hindalco

Outlook on Novelis remained stable on the back of firm demand outlook and strong product mix across regions. With increased investments in conversion business model of Novelis and downstream capacity expansion of domestic operations, the combined share of conversion (including copper) business and value added products would increase by ~500bps to 75% (in EBITDA) by FY20e. Backed by strong business model and attractive valuations, we maintain Accumulate with target price of Rs 224 (earlier Rs245), EV/EBITDA of 5.3x FY21E (earlier 6x FY20E)

Kotak Institutional Equites on Bajaj Finance

Bajaj Finance reported another quarter of strong performance with 41% AUM growth and improving operating leverage driving 57% growth in earnings. Its concerted efforts to maintain high growth and profitability are undoubtedly commendable.

However, the risks of an eventual consumer cycle are completely ignored by the Street even as Bajaj is actively working on minimizing the impact of the same. Retain SELL, fair value of Rs2,500 (Rs2,400 earlier)

Sectoral trend on NSE


20 stocks surged over 100% in past two election years; beat indices in 2019

20 stocks including Bajaj Finance, Shree Cement, SRF, DCM Shriram and Greaves Cotton recorded an over 100 per cent returns in the past two consecutive election calendar years since 2009 and have outperformed the market thus far in the calendar year 2019 (CY19). READ MORE

Coal India jumps over 2%


Dabur India grows almost 4%


Bitcoin slips more than 20% to below $6,300 after clocking 10-month high

The price of bitcoin sank almost 20% on Friday, an abrupt move after a strong recovery in the crypto-currency in recent weeks that took it to a 10-month high. Bitcoin fell to as low as $6,178 at Bitstamp exchange, down 21.6% from the previous close and last stood down 7.8% at $7,266.



Nifty FMCG gains almost 2%


Trade war can't bring China down; it'll make us stronger: Chinese media

The trade war with the United States will only make China stronger and will never bring the country to its knees, the Communist Party's People's Daily wrote in a front page commentary that evoked the patriotic spirit of past. The world's two largest economies are locked in an increasingly acrimonious trade dispute that has seen them level tariffs on each other's imports. READ MORE


Illustration by Binay Sinha

MARKET CHECK

S&P BSE SENSEX 37,625.81 +232.33 +0.62
 
S&P BSE SENSEX 50 11,784.21 +68.23 +0.58
 
S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 30,887.37 +55.36 +0.18
 
S&P BSE 100 11,408.92 +60.07 +0.53
 
S&P BSE Bharat 22 Index 3,496.20 +3.26 +0.09

Hindustan Unilever gains over 2%


Prabhudas Lilladher on Siemens

We expect Siemens to benefit from its strong focus on Digitalization/Automation opportunity due to very low penetration and industry’s drive to improve efficiency. We have raised FY19/FY20E EPS estimate by 2/3% mainly on account of strong 1HFY19 performance by Mobility and Power & Gas. We expect Siemens to deliver earnings CAGR of 15% over the next two years (FY18-20E) and maintain Accumulate with revised target price of Rs 1,263.

This pharma stock has risen over 170% in 17 months

Procter & Gamble Health (formerly Merck) shares were trading higher for the sixth straight day, up 4 per cent in early morning trade at Rs 4,389, also its new high on the BSE, after the company reported strong net profit growth in March quarter (Q1CY19). The pharmaceutical company’s profit after tax rose 79 per cent at Rs 40.7 crore in Q1CY19 driven by high interest income and operational efficiencies. Total revenue grew 22.2 per cent at Rs 249 crore against Rs 204 crore in previous year quarter.  READ MORE



Nirmal Bang Securities on Dishman Carbogen Amcis

RECO: BUY
 
TARGET PRICE: Rs 425
 
The stock trades at a steep discount to its peer group, despite very strong earnings momentum. We believe that investors should focus on adjusted earnings as reported earnings are unduly depressed by amortisation charge on the goodwill created out of reverse merger with its own subsidiaries.

NEWS ALERT | Chugh appointed as MD, CEO for 3 years

- To take over from Dec 1. 

Blue Dart slips over 5%


Hindalco Industries tumbles over 3.5%


Credit-oriented schemes: Debt papers' downgrades spook retail investors

Retail investors in credit-oriented schemes, who expected little volatility and steady returns from their investments, are now in an exit mode.
 
This is on account of concerns over returns being hit due to write-downs of debt papers downgraded to ‘below-investment grade’ and mark-to-market losses after adverse ratings. “Some of these schemes have had to take a significant markdown on their exposure to downgraded papers, thus triggering a fall in the net asset values (NAVs). READ MORE

Nifty PSU index slips in trade


Bajaj Finance hits all-time high on strong Q4 results; stock surges 5%

Bajaj Finance shares hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 3,262, up 5 per cent, in early morning trade on the BSE on Friday after the company reported a better-than-expected profit and net interest income (NII) in March quarter. The firm recorded a strong 57 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in net profit at Rs 1,176 crore in March quarter. while NII grew 50 per cent at Rs 3,394 crore on YoY basis. Analysts, on an average, had expected profit of Rs 1,062 crore and NII of Rs 3,271 crore for the quarter. READ MORE


 

NEWS ALERT | Boeing expects to complete safety certification for B737 Max by May end: SpiceJet

- Boeing had earlier said that it was nearing process completion.

- Alert: B737 Max aircraft have been grounded worldwide after two fatal accidents killed nearly 350 people

NEWS ALERT | City Union Bank Q4 result

- NNPA ratio: 1.81%, up 7 bps

- GNPA ratio: 2.95%, up 4bps

Buzzing | Aurobindo Pharma extends losses


NEWS ALERT | City Union Bank Q4 result

- NII at Rs 420.6 crore

- Loan growth up 17% YoY

NEWS ALERT | City Union Bank Q4 result

- Net Profit at Rs 175 crore

- Gross NPA at Rs 977 crore

- Net NPA at Rs 591.5 crore

Elara Capital on Amara Raja Batteries

Rating: ACCUMULATE
 
Target Price : INR 745
 
Upside : 19%
 
CMP : INR 626 (as on 16 May 2019)

Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ IN) revenue declined by 1% YoY at INR 15.7bn, 6% below our estimates vs Exide’s 6%. EBITDA grew 15% YoY, in line with our estimates at INR 2.4bn. EBITDA margin at 15.5% was  80bp above our estimates, led by lower-than-expected RMC-sales ratio at 65.2% vs our estimates of 66.4% and improved mix (higher replacement revenues). PAT grew 3% YoY to INR 1.2bn, 3% below our estimates, owing to lower other income. In FY19, revenue has been lower QoQ each quarter, although margin has kept improving each quarter. This has been led by gross margin expansion from 28.5% in Q1FY19 to 34.8% in Q4FY19 (the highest in past nine quarters). Gross margin expansion has been due to lower lead prices.

Anand Rathi on Dalmia Bharat

Last close: Rs 1,037

Target price: Rs 1.361

Recommendation: Buy


Driven by rising demand, stable realisations and improved contribution from the “other” segment, Dalmia’s performance came back on track. Its dominance in the East, various cost optimisation measures, falling raw material prices and expected tax savings would help it report a firm performance. Further, the amalgamation and acquisition are expected to result in both operating and financial leverage. We introduce FY21e and maintain our Buy rating, with a target of Rs1,361.

Elara Capital on Petronet LNG

Rating: ACCUMULATE
 
Target Price : INR 258
 
Upside : 15%
 
CMP : INR 225 

Petronet LNG (PLNG IN) reported a net operating income of INR 83.8bn, down 3% YoY. EBITDA declined 24% YoY to INR 6.3bn, due to lower sales volume and inventory loss of INR 1.2bn, which was accounted during the quarter on account of a fall in spot LNG prices along with higher other expenses. Total sales volume was at 205tbtu in Q4FY19, down 4% YoY and up 2% QoQ, where capacity utilization at Dahej was at 104%. PAT was down 16% YoY at INR 4.4bn vs our estimates of INR 5.3bn. The negative surprise was due to inventory loss.
 

Buzzing | Phillips Carbon gains over 7% in trade


Aurobindo Pharma falls 6% after USFDA classifies inspection as OAI

Aurobindo Pharma shares fell 6 per cent to Rs 682 in early morning trade on the BSE on Friday after the drug firm announced that the American drug regulator classified the inspection of the company’s API intermediates facilities of Unit I, IX and XI as Official Action Indicated (OAI).

“The company has received letters from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) classifying the inspections concluded at our API facilities of Unit I and XI and intermediates facility of unit IX in February 2019 as Official Action Indicated (OAI).” the regulatory fiing said. READ MORE

Sectoral trends on NSE at this hour


Top gainers and losers on S&P BSE Sensex


YES Securities on Gulf Oil Lubricants

While we expect GOLI to report a 16% earnings CAGR during FY18-21E, consensus estimates place a 5% CAGR for Castrol. On FY21E P/E, GOLI is trading at 16.7x, which we find attractive. The company having a net-debt free balance sheet and no major capex plan may consider increasing its dividend payout from the current levels of 40%. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a 1-year price target of Rs1,039 (21x FY21E EPS).

Market check


Market check


YES Securities on Hindalco Industries

Novelis continues to report strong results led superior product mix. Aleris acquisition is moving as per schedule and would be completed by Q2 FY20. We believe valuations are quite attractive at 5.4x FY21E EV/EBIDTA with the company’s strong integrated business model and dependence on commodity prices declining. Recommend Buy.

Arvind Fashions tumbles 10% after net profit declines over 9% in Q4


Manappuram Finance gains 2% in trade

Manappuram Finance approve to acquire 100% equity shares of Manappuram Asset Finance for Rs 34.21 crore


HDFC Securities on Capacite Infraprojects

We believe the recent influx of orders from Raymond, Oberoi, Raheja demonstrate Capacite Infraprojects' growing presence (esp. in Mumbai) at a time when developers are emphasizing on timely completion of projects (post- RERA). While we appreciate its constant endeavor to expand the non-resi portfolio, we continue to closely monitor its projects for any signs of stress (esp. among the non marquee clients). We believe the backlog is healthy and have built in 22% revenue CAGR (FY19-21E). Maintain BUY.

Praj Industries up over 2% on healthy Q4 nos

Consolidated net profit up 24.5% at Rs 33 crore versus Rs 26.8 crore, revenue up 34.1% at Rs 368.2 crore versus Rs 274.5 crore, YoY


Momentum picks by ICICI Securities

 

Kirloskar Brothers gains in trade

Net profit for Q4FY19 was up 11.7% at Rs 36.3 crore versus Rs 32.5 crore, revenue was up 22.5% at Rs 761.9 crore versus Rs 622 crore, YoY


JK Tyre & Industries slips in trade after reporting net profit dip in Q4


JK Tyre slips over 2% in trade on weak Q4 nos

- Consolidated net profit down was down by 76.9% at Rs 34 crore versus Rs 145.3 crore.
 
 

PNB Housing Finance slips over 4% after PNB calls off deal to sell stake


Most active stocks by volume

COMPANY PRICE(rs) CHG(rs) CHG(%) VOLUME
REL. COMM. 1.93 -0.01 -0.52 7395025
YES BANK 144.90 7.10 5.15 1171715
RELIANCE POWER 6.10 0.23 3.92 913687
VODAFONE IDEA 12.15 -0.05 -0.41 671527
RELIANCE CAPITAL 118.35 5.85 5.20 525303
» More on Most Active Volume

NEWS ALERT | USFDA classifies certain units of Aurobindo Pharma's as official action indicated: CNBC TV18

API unit's I & XI & intermediate of unit IX as ‘official action indicated’ (OAI)

Aurobindo Pharma slips almost 5%


Pharma stocks under pressure

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
(rs)
CHG(%) VALUE
(rs CR)
VOLUME
SUN PHARMA.INDS. 413.70 415.70 405.25 2.65 0.64 4.09 98958
AUROBINDO PHARMA 690.00 725.00 681.70 -34.80 -4.80 4.72 68371
CADILA HEALTH. 252.95 257.00 250.45 -5.20 -2.01 0.57 22674
BIOCON 524.65 527.00 521.50 -2.80 -0.53 1.08 20675
LUPIN 768.95 778.70 762.00 -12.40 -1.59 1.51 19628
WOCKHARDT 367.55 369.00 361.75 3.15 0.86 0.72 19478

Sugar stocks trade in the green

COMPANY NAME LATEST HIGH LOW CHG
(rs)
CHG(%) VALUE
(rs CR)
VOLUME
BAJAJ HINDUSTHAN 7.89 7.94 7.75 0.18 2.33 0.01 9629
TRIVEN.ENGG.IND. 63.95 64.75 63.70 1.70 2.73 0.06 8934
DWARIKESH SUGAR 26.35 26.75 26.10 0.70 2.73 0.02 8747
BALRAMPUR CHINI 143.35 144.95 143.10 0.40 0.28 0.09 6597
DALMIA BHARAT 109.95 111.50 108.00 4.65 4.42 0.07 6281
DHAMPUR SUGAR 204.80 206.90 203.40 5.10 2.55 0.12 5629
UGAR SUGAR WORKS 14.67 14.80 14.50 0.80 5.77 0.01 5099
SH.RENUKA SUGAR 10.20 10.32 10.20 0.09 0.89 0.00 4175
UTTAM SUG.MILLS 115.00 115.90 113.70 3.55 3.19 0.03 2888

Zee Entertainment up 4%


Reliance Capital gains over 5%


Nifty Pharma continues its downward spiral


YES Bank zooms almost 6%


Bajaj Finance gains over 2% after posting 32% growth in PAT in Q4 results


DHFL climbs over 3% on report of talks with Oaktree Capital for offloading wholesale real estate loans


InterGlobe Aviation slips on report that minority shareholders' concern over 'mismangement'


First trade


Sectoral trend on NSE


Market at open


Market at open

At 9:17 AM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 37,494, up 100 points while the broader Nifty50 was ruling at 11,265, up 8 points.

I-T dept to conduct a special audit of grounded Jet Airways books

The income-tax (I-T) department is set to appoint an independent auditor to conduct a special audit of the Jet Airways books in connection with the commission paid by the airline to its Dubai-based group entities for allegedly evading Rs 850 crore in taxes, according to an official privy to the development. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT | China says economic impact of US trade tensions 'controllable' : Reuters

China’s state planner said on Friday trade frictions with the United States has had some impact on China’s economy, but it was “controllable” and countermeasures would be rolled-out when needed to “keep economic operations within reasonable range”. 

Sectoral trend on NSE at pre-open


Market at pre-open


Rupee opening

Rupee opens lower at 70.26/$ vs Thursday's close of 70.02 against the US dollar

L&T becomes single-largest shareholder in Mindtree, acquires 26% stake

After close to two months of intense corporate battle, engineering and construction major L&T on Thursday crossed the critical stake holding mark of 26 per cent in Mindtree, making it the single-largest shareholder in the Bengaluru-headquartered IT services firm.
 
Post reaching this threshold, L&T will not only be able to induct its nominee on Mindtree board, it will also be able to block future resolutions relating to capital structure, dividend and acquisition passed by latter's board. It will also have a say in appointment of whole-time directors on board apart from induction of managing director. READ MORE

IndiGo's minority shareholders approach board, question deals and contracts

Minority shareholders of IndiGo, the largest airline in the country by market share, have approached the board of directors, alleging operational mismanagement in the company, according to sources close to the matter. These shareholders have questioned contracts and deals signed by the company, it is learnt. READ MORE

Bajaj Finance's mastery of volume game visible in Q4 performance

In an industry where volumes matter the most, Bajaj Finance seems to have perfected the art. Its March quarter (Q4) performance, which exceeded expectations, is testimony to the same. The results also defied talks of slowdown in consumer sentiment, with its consolidated assets under management (AUM) growing 40 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4. READ MORE

NEWS ALERT | Completed development of the updated software for the 737 MAX: Boeing

UTI MF scheme's rating revised to AA for 'downward credit migration'

UTI Mutual Fund’s (MF) ultra short term fund has been downgraded by India Ratings from AAA to AA.
 
“India Ratings and Research has downgraded UTI Ultra Short Term Fund’s National Fund Credit Rating to ‘IND AAmfs’ from ‘IND AAAmfs’ while placing it on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). READ MORE

Novelis' integrated domestic operations add sheen to Hindalco in March

After a strong performance from Novelis, Hindalco’s domestic operations also reported a stable performance. Though revenues were ahead of expectations, profits were slightly below expectation. However, despite the challenges, the company expects a steady future, aided by higher efficiencies in operations. READ MORE

US crackdown on Huawei ratchets up tensions over trade talks, tech sector

A US bid to block China's Huawei Technologies from buying vital American technology threw into question prospects for sales at some of the largest tech companies and drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, further ratcheting up tensions over trade.
 
Shares of Huawei's US suppliers fell on fears the Chinese firm would be forced to stop buying American chips, software and other components after the Trump administration banned it from buying US technology without special approval. READ MORE
Illustration by Ajay Mohant

Bajaj Auto, Dr Reddy's, IOC, Mindtree and IndiGo among top stocks to watch

Here's a look at the top stocks that may remain in focus today -
 
Earnings today: Bajaj Auto, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Indian Oil Corporation, Dr Lal PathLabs, UPL and Zee Learn are among the 84 companies that are slated to release their March quarter earnings later in the day.
 
IndiGo: Minority shareholders of IndiGo, the largest airline in the country by market share, have approached the board of directors, alleging operational mismanagement in the company, said a Business Standard report citing sources. READ MORE

NBFCs in focus | RBI asks to appoint Chief Risk Officer

 It has been decided that NBFCs with asset size of more than Rs.50 billion shall appoint a CRO with clearly specified role and responsibilities. The CRO is required to function independently so as to ensure highest standards of risk management: RBI said in its order.
Click here for full order


Mid, small-cap stocks bear brunt of market correction, decline 10% in April

The latest correction seen in the markets has hit the mid- and small-cap stocks most. While the benchmark indices have come off around 5 per cent from their record highs in April, the mid- and small-cap indices have declined by about 10 per cent during the same period.
 
The Nifty on Thursday ended at 11,257, 4.5 per cent off its all-time high of 11,787 on April 16. The Nifty Midcap 100 ended at 16,673 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 closed at 6,103.80 — down 8.6 per cent and 10 per cent, resp­ectively, for the same period. READ MORE

A fourth of India's top 1,000 listed companies of FY14 in trouble now

Nearly 25 per cent of India’s top 1,000 listed companies, excluding banks and financials, in terms of revenue have seen shareholder wealth erosion. These firms have lost more than half their market capitalisation in the past five years and are highly indebted, raising questions on their financial and operational viability. READ MORE

TGB-Tata Chemicals deal is good news for stocks, say analysts

The Street welcomed the Tata group’s strategic decision to put the long-awaited consumer business under one roof, by merging Tata Chemicals’ (TCL) foods and detergent business with Tata Global Beverages (TGBL; to be renamed as Tata Consumer Products). Shares of these two entities surged 8-11 per cent on Thursday. READ MORE

Kotak Securities on Tata Global Beverages

Target close: Rs 240

Recommendation: Add


TGBL and Tata Chemicals (TCL) have entered into an agreement to merge TCL’s consumer products business into TGBL in an all-stock transaction. Our math suggests meaningful (3-6%) EPS accretion for TGBL in the second and third years post consummation even without assuming any synergy gains. Most importantly, TGBL (to be renamed Tata Consumer Products Limited) becomes the vehicle to execute Tata Group’s aggressive aspirations in the B2C FMCG
business (including home care and personal care at some point). We do not value this optionality. The deal drives a Rs10/share increase in our SoTP FV for TGBL to Rs240.

Reliance Securities on Lupin

Last close: Rs 779

Target price: rs 715

Recommendation: Reduce


Lupin (LPC IN) 4QFY19 performance was below our expectations due to lower growth in the US and India businesses. Revenue grew by 9.2% YoY and 2.6% QoQ to Rs44.1bn (vs estimates of Rs45.2bn). APAC and API segment grew by 4% YoY each while Japan declined by 5% QoQ (CC terms). Gross margin at 68%, up 183bps YoY and 387bps QoQ due to better product mix and gRanexa contribution in the US. EBITDA margin at 19.8% while up 222bps YoY and 351bps QoQ missed our expectations of 22% because of lower than expected US sales and higher specialty product related marketing expenses in US. EBITDA grew
23.1% YoY to Rs8.7bn (vs estimates of Rs10bn). Adj. PAT declined by 58% YoY and up 44% QoQ to Rs2.9bn due to higher taxes (Rs3bn vs Rs1.8bn in 3QFY19 and tax gain of Rs1.6bn in 4QFY18).

Bajaj Auto Q4 earnings preview: Here's what leading brokerages expect

Bajaj Auto is set to announce its earnings for the quarter ended March 2019 (Q4FY19) on Friday. Analysts expect an impressive 14 per cent increase in volume triggered by the aggressive stance Bajaj Auto has adopted to gain market share in the entry motorcycle segment and new launches. However, the same strategy, coupled with adverse product mix, may hit its topline growth and margin. READ MORE

IIFL on Tata Chemicals

Last close: Rs 557

Target price: Rs 730

Recommendation: Buy


We view the demerger of the Consumer Products segment as an incremental positive for Tata Chemicals (TCL) because: 1) it unlocks the hidden value in Tata Salt in a tax-efficient manner and without creating any cross-holdings; and 2) it focuses the residual company on one business – chemicals. The transaction valuation (~16x FY20ii EV/Ebit) is broadly in line with our estimate. We expect the demerger to make the under-valuation of the residual business more apparent (~6xEV/Ebitda). Management’s openness to discuss further value-unlocking opportunities – e.g., in Tata Sons’ shares, is an added bonus.

Indian Oil Corporation Q4 results today; here's what analysts expect

Weaker benchmark GRM (gross refining margin) and lower marketing margins are likely to take a toll on Indian Oil Corporation's (IOCL) March quarter results, which is scheduled to be released today. Edelweiss Securities estimates the company's loss at Rs 1,609.4 crore for the quarter under review. 
 
Marketing margins, according to analysts at ICICI Securities, are expected to show a quantum increase as the company did not fully pass on lower costs to customers and also due to inventory gains. READ MORE

HDFC Securities on Lupin

Recommendation: Buy

Target Price: Rs 930
 
We maintain a BUY on LPC following in line operational performance in 4QFY19. Our TP is revised at Rs 930/sh (22x FY21E EPS) following a 10% cut in our FY21E EPS to account for higher tax and slower ramp up in Solosec.

HDFC Securities on Jubilant FoodWorks

Recommendation: BUY
 
Target price: Rs 1,739
 
JFL’s 4Q performance was mixed with modest SSG growth and healthy internals. We remain bullish on JFL, this quarter does not impair our long-term thesis. Instead, our confidence rises based on management’s commentary on (a) Initiatives undertaken in technology, (b) Reimaging stores (design, self-ordering kiosks etc.) and (c) Beefing up Domino’s menu with beverages (in-house brands). We value at 46x on Mar-21 EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 1,739.

Anand Rathi on Deepak Nitrite

CMP: Rs 281
 
Target: Rs 346

Outlook: Positive

Recommendation: Buy
 
Deepak Nitrite has reported a growth of 23.6% in its standalone revenues at Rs.4,859 million in Q4-FY19 as against Rs.3,929 million in Q4-FY18. The performance wan mainly driven by better product mix, capacity expansion and higher realisations across key products. The overall volume growth stood 11% YoY. On full year basis the company’s standalone revenues grew 23.2% at Rs.17,919 million in FY19 against Rs.14,550 million in FY18. During the year the company has also reported Rs.9,270 million in revenues for FY19.

Elara Capital on ABB India

Target Price : INR 1,440
 
Upside : 5%
 
CMP : INR 1,378 (as on 15 May 2019)

Recommendation: Accumulate 


ABB order inflows were up a mere 6% YoY to INR 18bn in Q1CY19, driven by base orders of INR 15bn, up 17%, and exports up  38%. Inflows were driven by transportation, data centers, automobiles, metals, cement and oil & gas sectors. Segment-wise inflows, robotic & motion (R&M) rose by 38% and electrification products (EP) was up 15% while industrial automation (IA) fell 24% on delayed decision-making in metals and oil & gas sectors. Management says inflows in Q2CY19 look muted on slowdown in demand in automobiles & consumption sectors and the General Elections. Orderbook stood at INR 47bn. The book-to-bill ratio was at 1x CY19E sales.

Nifty can slip up to 15% if Narendra Modi-led NDA fails to form govt: UBS

As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections enter their final lap, with polling for only one of the seven seven phases left, all eyes are now on the outcome, which will be known on May 23. This uncertainty, coupled with other global developments, has kept the markets volatile in the past few sessions.
 
A recent report co-authored by Gautam Chhaochharia, the UBS head of India research, along with Dipojjal Saha and Rohit Arora, expects the Nifty to slip 10-15 per cent if the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fails to form the government at the Centre. The projection is based on sharp reactions witnessed in 2004 and 2009 after general election outcomes. READ MORE

Commodity outlook by Tradebulls Securities: Sell natural gas, buy copper

US Dollar index is parked around 97.30 and is trading in a bull trend. US Dollar was able to shrug off weaker than expected US Retail sales data but is showing downward pressure after President Donald Trump said the US would delay tariffs on EU's automobiles.
 
Indian Rupee, meanwhile, is trading near its 11-week low. Rupee has depreciated from 69.50 to 70.70 in six trading sessions so we expect some pullback. READ MORE

Today's picks: From Airtel to Adani Ports, hot stocks to buy on Friday

Nifty
 
Current 11,257 (fut: 11,300), 
 
Target: NA
 
Stop-long positions at 11,200. Stop-short positions at 11,400. Big moves could go till 11,450, 11,150. Trend may go bearish again after short-covering yesterday. A long May 23 11,100p (213) , short 11,000p (182) could gain 10-15 if the index drops below 11,150. READ MORE

Derivative Strategy for Manappuram Finance by HDFC Securities

Buy Manappuram Finance May 125 Call @ Rs 3.25 
 
Stop loss of Rs 2
 
Target Rs 5.50 READ MORE
 
 

Bulk deal on NSE as on Thursday

FII/FPI & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MSEI


Rupee check

Source: Bloomberg


Oil check

At 7:30 am, Brent crude futures were trading at $72.98 per barrel. 

SGX Nifty

At 7:30 am, SGX Nifty was trading 17.5 points lower at 11,287.5 levels. 

Asian Markets check

Source: Reuters


Wall Street check

Source: Reuters


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