Labour participation, however, continues to be lower than it was a year ago. This had risen during October 2017 to 44.6 per cent but, it fell back to 43.7 per cent in November. Data for the first fortnight of December suggest that labour participation may fall further this December.
Lower labour participation rate implies lower employment. It follows that the total number of employed in November 2017 were lower than those employed in October 2017. And further, the number of employed in December could be even lower.
This could bring back the spectre of seasonality. How much of the fall in November was seasonal and how much was it lack of jobs?
The provisional estimates for November 2017 suggest that employment was 2.1 per cent higher in the month compared to the employment in the month of demonetisation, November 2016. This is subject to revisions scheduled to take place in January 2018.
Newspaper reports suggest that the government is seized of the problem of employment and is taking various steps to measure the problem and also mitigate it.
The Economic Times reported on December 15 that the Union Budget would reveal a National Jobs Policy. “The multi-pronged employment policy will include incentives for employers to create more jobs, reforms to attract enterprises and help for medium and small scale industries, which are major job providers.” The emphasis seems to be on quality jobs and jobs in the formal sector.
The quality of jobs is a critical part about the employment challenge. In the absence of social security, households accept any employment if no quality jobs are available. This leads to low wages and no severance pay. No other media has reported on such a National Jobs Policy. So, we need to wait to see if the Economic Times report has merit and if so what the contours of such policy would be.
On December 14, Business Standard reported that the union government has initiated a survey to count jobs under the Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency (Mudra) scheme. The survey is being conducted by Labour Bureau. The Mudra scheme offers unsecured loans of upto Rs.1 million to small enterprises with the objective of providing self-employment. In 2016-17, around 40 million loans were disbursed.
The Business Standard report seems to suggest that data for the survey would be provided by banks. Since the average size of the loans is as small as Rs.44,000 it is apparent that the only jobs that the scheme can create is for the recipient of the loan. Rs.44,000 is less than half the median household income of Indians.
The Labour Bureau has a track record of estimating employment and unemployment and it would be useful to see the details of this survey when they are released, particularly since the initial feeling regarding the scheme's ability to provide jobs is rather sceptical. Besides, it is apparent that Mudra cannot provide quality jobs with ticket size being capped at Rs.1 million.
While public discussions on jobs have increased, discussions on labour reforms have not been taken up with equal vigour. This has reduced the problem of jobs into a political slugfest. A National Jobs Policy minus the labour reforms discussed earlier would be incomplete. However, the stress on the jobs front also reduces the political space available to make policy decisions that could imply relative ease in hiring and firing labour. This could keep labour markets as inefficient as they are now.
The Business Standard reported on December 8 that the government has put on hold proposals to introduce policy changes that could have allowed factories with upto 300 workers to lay off labour or shut operations without government permission. Currently, only factories with upto 100 workers have such leeway.
Sticky labour laws and difficult business environment have led to employers shifting their new hiring in favour of contract labour where social security is much lesser. We need to raise quality jobs, the social security offered and at the same time we need to improve labour laws to ensure that markets allocate labour efficiently.
Consumer sentiment indices and unemployment rate are generated from CMIE's Consumer Pyramids survey machinery. The weekly estimates are based on a sample size of about 6,500 households and about 17,000 individuals who are more than 14 years of age. The sample changes every week but repeats after 16 weeks with a scheduled replenishment and enhancement every year. The overall sample size run over a wave of 16 weeks is 158,624 households. The sample design is of multi-stratrification to select primary sampling units and simple random selection of the ultimate sampling units, which are the households.
The Consumer Sentiment index is based on responses to five questions on the lines of the Surveys of Consumers conducted by University of Michigan in the US. The five questions seek a household's views on its well-being compared to a year earlier, its expectation of its well-being a year later, its view regarding the economic conditions in the coming one year, its view regarding the general trend of the economy over the next five years, and finally its view whether this is a good time to buy consumer durables.
The unemployment rate is computed on a current daily basis. A person is considered unemployed if she states that she is unemployed, is willing to work and is actively looking for a job. Labour force is the sum of all unemployed and employed persons above the age of 14 years. The unemployment rate is the ratio of the unemployed to the total labour force.
All estimations are made using Thomas Lumley's R package, survey. For full details on methodology, please visit CMIE India Unemployment data and CMIE India Consumer Sentiment.
The creation of these indices and their public dissemination is supported by BSE. University of Michigan is a partner in the creation of the consumer sentiment indices.