Advantage Mr Modi

In a political scenario as complicated as India’s, it is not always safe to rely on exit polls. They have frequent problems with sampling, and with extrapolating from vote shares to seats. The exit polls have not been accurate in two of the last four Indian general elections. Even elsewhere in the world, elections are never over until the last vote is counted — and sometimes dozens of exit polls are wrong, as demonstrated by the surprise victory by the incumbent government in Australia, which overturned every prediction by exit and opinion polls. That said, when almost all the exit.....

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