Statistical optimism: Structural issues, base quirks, and Indian economy

The corrections to growth forecasts have come thick and fast, from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), rating agencies, investment banks, and sundry others. Almost all of them now place gross domestic product (GDP) growth for India this financial year at 6 per cent, give or take a decimal point or two. These are seen by most observers as downbeat numbers, given that previous forecasts not long ago were close to or at 7 per cent — in the Economic Survey, RBI reports and elsewhere. Certainly 6 per cent is a big climbdown from last year&rs.....

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