Two things are becoming clearer with every passing day. First, only aggressive containment measures have a chance of flattening the COVID-19 outbreak curve. To be incentive-compatible, however, lockdowns need to be accompanied by commensurate income support — especially in emerging markets with incomplete and leaky safety nets — for populations to comply with lockdowns. Second, the global economic crater from this “sudden stop” of activity will be much higher than imagined. The global economy is on track to contracting (at an annualised rate) by almost 15 per cent and 7.....

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