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Share of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) rose over 7 per cent to hit a life-high on Wednesday after analysts at UBS maintained their bullish outlook, citing that the market is yet to price in the more growth potential.
The global brokerage reiterated its ‘buy’ rating and raised the target price to ₹10,000 per share, the highest among all brokerages tracked by Bloomberg. From the current price of ₹8,565, the target implies an upside potential of nearly 17 per cent.
MCX’s trading volumes have been robust since April, with futures’ average daily value (ADV) rising around 50 per cent quarter-on-quarter and option premiums’ ADV increasing by 30 per cent, UBS said in a note dated June 24. "We expect the ADV of key commodities to remain strong amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties."
New products such as electricity derivatives, monthly bullion contracts, and upcoming index options may further support growth in the near to medium term, the brokerage said. UBS believes this is not fully priced in the stock price, as it will lead to higher volumes.
Earlier this month, MCX received approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to launch Electricity Derivatives. The introduction of electricity derivatives indicates a potential revenue contribution of 3-12 per cent, analysts at UBS said. "On new silver options, we expect good traction given the preference for near-to-expiry contracts."
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MCX to maintain leadership
Analysts acknowledged the concerns about market share losses after similar products were launched by the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
However, traction for NSE commodity derivatives has been low, and volumes on MCX's new platform have been steady and growing meaningfully for futures and options contracts. "We are now less concerned about market share losses as liquidity drives volumes on an exchange."
"Structurally, we believe MCX is well-positioned to deliver secular growth as awareness of hedging commodities increases in the domestic market, specifically for electricity derivatives." They are also positive given the low penetration of commodity exchanges in India.
ICICI Securities on MCX
Analysts at the broking firm noted that MCX is benefiting from the current state of heightened commodity volatility. The domestic brokerage maintained its 'add' rating and upped the target to ₹8,800 per share.
The stance is based on a strong uptick in volumes since the start of FY26, a possible uptick in volumes arising from newer products and the rise in commodity volatility against the current backdrop of global geopolitical tensions, it said in a note.
MCX, since the start of the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), has witnessed a surge in options/futures volumes. Options Premium ADTV stood at ₹4,130 crore (up 33 per cent versus FY25 premium ADTV). Futures ADTV stood at ₹40,700 crore (up 50.5 per cent versus FY25 futures ADTV).
MCX Share price
The stock of MCX rose as much as 7.21 per cent during the day to a life-high of ₹8,808 per share, the steepest gains since June 9 this year. The company's stock price has doubled from its March 2025 lows of ₹4,410.1 per share.
The counter has risen 39 per cent this year, compared to a 6.5 per cent advance in the benchmark Nifty 50. MCX has a total market capitalisation of ₹43,807.60 crore.
